tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5438008.post5870693569779911436..comments2024-03-27T06:40:56.148-04:00Comments on EagleSpeak: Iranian threatsMark Tempesthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18172703868541571574noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5438008.post-80291385665632925562012-01-06T07:48:18.161-05:002012-01-06T07:48:18.161-05:001st. This is an excellent site. Thank You
We shou...1st. This is an excellent site. Thank You<br /><br />We should be more than intrigued with this latest flourish of supposed Iranian irrationality. It is clearly calculated to either test, produce or provoke Western resolve.<br /><br />But irrational? Only relatively so. Are we not all too aware of the massive complex at Natanz? This irrational state has aggressively developed a nearly weaponized nuclear capacity, with hundreds of thousands of square meters of hardened factory built over a decade in full view of both secure and unclassified space assets. One can even watch the progress on Google Earth history beginning in 2003. Recent IAEA inspections only observe the above ground complex, which is set-dressed as medical research. There may have been a brief disruption with a worm in the Siemens gear running the centrifuges, but they recovered quickly. <br /><br />And so much for irrational when one considers the sophistication of the surrounding missile defense assets at Natanz and a dozen other hardened nuclear sites. This regime and those preceeding are deadly serious about nuclear weaponry, what may be inexplicable, if not irrational was the relative passivity of the threatened West as we watched it being built. <br /><br />The Vinson, Enterprise, Stennis, and eight more four acres of USN American sovereignty, nevermind the CGs and DDs and SSBNs, will of course continue to traverse Hormuz despite Iran's public threats. It is correct to observe that the straits can be successfully defended and that the difficulty will be directly proportional to Iranian actions, but I do not doubt that any blockade will be swiftly defeated. The effort will vary from tactical to strategic depending on how many carrier groups have to deploy, among the other more secure assets. <br /><br />We now face the end game of a long term containment proving only marginally effective. Once Iran is capable of nuclear warfare, recklessness, and not irrationality will become the threat. Their oil wealth has fueled this capability, and so long as they continue to benefit economically, the nuclear programs will thrive. Challenging Hormuz transits, even if only as propaganda, will inevitably enhance Iranian oil revenues despite Western disruption of banking flows. (it already has).<br /><br />IMHO, what we are witnessing is a deliberate manipulation of trade-sensitive oil pricing, and this directly benefits the completion of a massively expensive nuclear adventure. I also think the Iranians well know they do not have the conventional military capacity to challenge a far more capable western military. Obliquely then is that this is about oil pricing, increased revenue for a vast nuclear program, and this, if true, is brilliantly disguised as rogue state irrationality. It may be anything but. Christopher Carradinenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5438008.post-30908151445247696792012-01-04T21:48:43.499-05:002012-01-04T21:48:43.499-05:00I guess that depends on what methods the Iranians ...I guess that depends on what methods the Iranians might use to attempt the closure. Some are more quickly thwarted than others.Mark Tempesthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18172703868541571574noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5438008.post-14865206621733501502012-01-04T19:37:18.911-05:002012-01-04T19:37:18.911-05:00Any guesses to how long it would take for the stra...Any guesses to how long it would take for the strait to be re-opened if Iran closes it?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com