Disaster Prep Wednesday: "Turn Around Don't Drown"

Seems like every super heavy rain storm that creates street flooding comes with a few things:
(1) People who insist in driving into water that is clearly too deep to successfully cross, or who really don't know what they are driving into;
(2) A smaller collection of thrill seekers who insist on driving their four wheelers through flooded streets, for the thrill of the "big splash" they create; and
(3) A television crew nearby capturing these folks as they hit the water.

So, here's the question: "is it safe do drive through flooded streets?"

Well, probably not. As noted at NOAA's Turn Around Don't Drown:

Each year, more deaths occur due to flooding than from any other severe weather related hazard. The Centers for Disease Control report that over half of all flood-related drownings occur when a vehicle is driven into hazardous flood water. The next highest percentage of flood-related deaths is due to walking into or near flood waters.Why? The main reason is people underestimate the force and power of water. Many of the deaths occur in automobiles as they are swept downstream. Of these drownings, many are preventable, but too many people continue to drive around the barriers that warn you the road is flooded.

Solution?

Most flood-related deaths and injuries could be avoided if people who come

Source - Times (UK)

upon areas covered with water followed this simple advice: Turn Around Don't Drown®.

The reason that so many people drown during flooding is because few of them realize the incredible power of water. A mere six inches of fast-moving flood water can knock over an adult. It takes only two feet of rushing water to carry away most vehicles. This includes pickups and SUVs.

If you come to an area that is covered with water, you will not know the depth of the water or the condition of the ground under the water. This is especially true at night, when your vision is more limited.

Play it smart, play it safe. Whether driving or walking, any time you come to a flooded road, Turn Around Don't Drown®

Pretty good description of wrong thinking on the part of drivers here:

Why do vehicles float? They float for the same reason a 97,000 ton aircraft carrier floats, buoyancy!

Where does this idea that "my heavy vehicle will keep me safe" come from? It comes from the false trust in the weight of the vehicle you are driving.

Many believe their 3,000 pound or more vehicle will remain in contact with the road surface, that it is too heavy to float. Think about that for a moment. Aircraft carriers weighing 97,000 tons float.

Vehicles, including ships, float because of buoyancy. In fact, most cars can be swept away in 18-24 inches of moving water. Trucks and SUVs do not fare much better with an additional 6-12 inches of clearance.

Your car is not USS Eisenhower, but it can still float!

Flood waters will recede eventually. The results of heading into flood waters? They may last a shortened life time.

RIMPAC is Coming: "World's Largest Maritime Exercise"

Increasing the possibility of understanding and misunderstanding at the same time: 23 Nations to Participate in World's Largest Maritime Exercise:

Twenty-three nations, 47 ships, six submarines, more than 200 aircraft and 25,000 personnel will participate in the biennial Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercise scheduled June 26 to Aug. 1, in and around the Hawaiian Islands.

The world's largest international maritime exercise, RIMPAC provides a unique training opportunity that helps participants foster and sustain the cooperative relationships that are critical to ensuring the safety of sea lanes and security on the world's oceans. RIMPAC 2014 is the 24th exercise in the series that began in 1971.
***
The theme of RIMPAC 2014 is "Capable, Adaptive, Partners." The participating nations and forces will exercise a wide range of capabilities

and demonstrate the inherent flexibility of maritime forces. These capabilities range from disaster relief and maritime security operations to sea control and complex warfighting. The relevant, realistic training syllabus includes amphibious operations, gunnery, missile, anti-submarine and air defense exercises as well as counter-piracy, mine clearance operations, explosive ordnance disposal and diving and salvage operations.

This year's exercise includes forces from Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, People's Republic of China, Peru, the Republic of Korea, the Republic of the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Tonga, the United Kingdom and the United States.(Navy News Release)

More Surface Warfare Fun that you can imagine!

Not quite the same as the world's largest outdoor cocktail party, though.

Update: Norway? Update2: Peter I Island?

The Slippery Slope of Thought Crimes: 'Sentence first - verdict afterwards.'

The estimable Victor Davis Hanson offers up a peek in to the slippery slope of "Who Among Us Will Cast the First Bid for Donald Sterling’s Clippers?" :

punishing words and deeds without trials and on the basis of outraged public opinion

If the NBA establishes the precedent that it can force the sale of an owner’s property because of one’s illiberal speech, however odious, what now is the new standard of behavior? A sort of descending French Revolutionary justice, predicated on the sound and fury of the mob?

Harry Reid believes the Washington Redskins owner should be targeted next for his insistence on keeping the Redskins logo. Should he too be forced to sell and by whom—his fellow morally superior owners? Should the Orlando Magic owner, Doug DeVoss, be hounded out of the league—as was recently suggested—because he opposes gay marriage? How many owners don’t believe in the idea of man-made global warming? Oppose illegal immigration? Doubt the wisdom of affirmative action? Can we scour their emails, tap their phones, or ask the public for their private indiscretions?

And who will police the police? Oddly, some of the very public officials who weighed in on the Sterling matter themselves have a sorry record of racist speech—and in the public, not illegally taped private, realms. Could any of them in their retirement pitch in to buy the Clippers?

Reminds me of the trial Alice in Wonderland:

At this moment the King, who had been for some time busily writing in his note-book, cackled out ‘Silence!’ and read out from his book, ‘Rule Forty-two. All persons more than a mile high to leave the court.’

Everybody looked at Alice.

‘I’m not a mile high,’ said Alice.

‘You are,’ said the King.

‘Nearly two miles high,’ added the Queen.

‘Well, I shan’t go, at any rate,’ said Alice: ‘besides, that’s not a regular rule: you invented it just now.’

‘It’s the oldest rule in the book,’ said the King.

‘Then it ought to be Number One,’ said Alice.

The King turned pale, and shut his note-book hastily. ‘Consider your verdict,’ he said to the jury, in a low, trembling voice.
***
‘Let the jury consider their verdict,’ the King said, for about the twentieth time that day.

‘No, no!’ said the Queen. ‘Sentence first — verdict afterwards.’

‘Stuff and nonsense!’ said Alice loudly. ‘The idea of having the sentence first!’

‘Hold your tongue!’ said the Queen, turning purple.

‘I won’t!’ said Alice.

‘Off with her head!’ the Queen shouted at the top of her voice. Nobody moved.

I hold no brief for Donald Sterling.

Except, of course, those concerns all of ought to have about mob rule egged on by those with the loudest mouths. A "pack of cards" indeed.

A Good Start to a Debate on Geopolitics

A couple of heavies fire broadsides in a discussion of geopolitics at Foreign Affairs:

First, Walter Russell Mead 's The Return of Geopolitics:

But Westerners should never have expected old-fashioned geopolitics to go away. They did so only because they fundamentally misread what the collapse of the Soviet Union meant: the ideological triumph of liberal capitalist democracy over communism, not the obsolescence of hard power.

Second, a reply from G. John Ikenberry in his The Illusion of Geopolitics: The Enduring Power of the Liberal Order:

But Mead’s alarmism is based on a colossal misreading of modern power realities. It is a misreading of the logic and character of the existing world order, which is more stable and expansive than Mead depicts, leading him to overestimate the ability of the “axis of weevils” to undermine it. And it is a misreading of China and Russia, which are not full-scale revisionist powers but part-time spoilers at best, as suspicious of each other as they are of the outside world.

I think Mead's piece is available without an account, but the Ikenberry bit may require a log in (which may be free).

Read them both, though. Thinking is good for you.

You can read about H. J Mackinder's "The Geographical Pivot of History" (of which the illustration at the top is a representation) here or read his original piece as a pdf here.

Your views may vary.

Saturday is Heinlein Quote Day #6

From TIme Enough for Love

"Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig." - Robert A. Heinlein

On Midrats Sunday 4 May 14: Episode 226: "Quo vadis Putin's Novorossiya," with Dr. Dmitry Gorenburg

 Please join us on 4 May 14 at 5pm EDT U.S. for Episode 226: "Quo vadis Putin's Novorossiya," with Dr. Dmitry Gorenburg:

So far in 2014, the big lesson is what people have known for centuries; in Eurasia you cannot ignore Russia. The cliché is accurate, Russia is never as weak or as strong as she seems.

What do the developments so far mean not just for Ukraine, but for all the

former Soviet Republics, slumbering Western Europe and Russia's near abroad?

To discuss this and more, for the full hour we will have returning guest Dr. Dmitry Gorenburg, Senior Analyst, CNA Strategic Studies, an Associate at Harvard’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, an author, and host of the Russian Military Reform blog.

Dr. Gorenburg focuses his research on security issues in the former Soviet Union, Russian military reform, Russian foreign policy, ethnic politics and identity, and Russian regional politics. He is also the editor of the journals Problems of Post-Communism and Russian Politics and Law and a Fellow of the Truman National Security Project. From 2005 through 2010, he was the Executive Director of the American Association for the Advancement of Slavic Studies.

Join us live or pick the show up later by clicking here

Friday Fun Film: "Seabees: The Navy's Fighting Construction Men" (1945)

I doubt there is anyone who has ever served with or around them that doesn't like the
Seabees:

Can Do!

"The dictators are back"

Interesting piece from Bret Stephens at WSJ Opinion, What Samuel Huntington Knew:

A West that prefers debt-subsidized welfarism over economic growth will not offer much in the way of an attractive model for countries in a hurry to modernize. A West that consistently sacrifices efficiency on the altars of regulation, litigation and political consensus will lose the dynamism that makes the risks inherent in free societies seem worthwhile. A West that shrinks from maintaining global order because doing so is difficult or discomfiting will invite challenges from nimble adversaries willing to take geopolitical gambles.

Yes, as the myth-makers once said of Mussolini, "He made the trains run on time." Or as Global Security has it:

Montagu and Darling wrote: "Mussolini may have done many brutal and tyrannical things; he may have destroyed human freedom in Italy; he may have murdered and tortured citizens whose only crime was to oppose Mussolini; but 'one had to admit' one thing about the Dictator: he 'made the trains run on time.'"

So, I guess it depends on how you like your goods delivered. Generally, though, dictatorship ends badly.

I prefer the messy republican capitalist way. More freedom, less murder and torture.

You can get a pdf copy of Huntington's "The Third Wave" here.

Happy May Day!

Sea Monkey Business

Stolen Liberated from The Goat Locker:

Art from here

A tourist walked into a pet shop and was looking at the animals on display. While he was there, a Chief Petty Officer walked in and said to the shopkeeper, "I'll have an Seaman monkey please." The shopkeeper nodded, went over to a cage at the side of the shop and took out a monkey. He fit a collar and leash, handed it to the Customer,saying "That'll be $1000." The Chief paid and walked out with his monkey. Startled, the tourist went over to the shopkeeper and said, "That was a very expensive monkey. Most of them are only a few hundred dollars. Why did it cost so much?" The shopkeeper answered, "Ah, that monkey can clean heads and passageways, perform routine maintenance on ship or hangar fittings, troubleshoot and repair complex avionics systems with no mistakes,well worth the money."

The tourist looked at the monkey in another cage. "That one's even more expensive! $10,000! What does it do?" "Oh, that one's a Petty Officer monkey; it can instruct GMT, CSTT, PRT, DC, 3M, PQS qualify the Seaman monkey and even do some paperwork. All the really useful stuff," said the shopkeeper.

The tourist looked around for a little longer and saw a third monkey in a cage of its own. The price tag around its neck read $50,000. He gasped to the shopkeeper, "That one costs more than all the others put together! What on earth does it do?" The shopkeeper replied, "Well, I haven't actually seen it do anything, but it says it's an Officer."

Ah, Chief humor.

Disaster Prep Wednesday: Surviving Wildfires

If you see this, you are too close

If you are on a hike and the woods catch fire - because of a lightning strike perhaps - what do you want to do? Or if you have a nice little home off in the high country and there's a fire bearing down on you - what's the best thing to do?

Ready.gov has some advice for homeowners on Wildfires - advice that requires you to be a bit proactive. Things like clearing an area around your property, moving flammable like gasoline away from the house and arranging for water to be on hand.

My advice is that if there is time and way to safely evacuate, do it. Get out while the getting is good. You can always rebuild a house. People are harder to reconstruct.

This might be important if you are trapped:

It is recommended that you create a 30 to 100 foot safety zone around your home. Within this area, you can take steps to reduce potential exposure to flames and radiant heat. Homes built in pine forests should have a minimum safety zone of 100 feet. If your home sits on a steep slope, standard protective measures may not suffice.

I am not sure what "non-standard protective measures" might prove useful, but if you have a house on a steep slope, you might want to find out.

What if you are out backpacking? Not surprisingly, Backerpacker magazine has suggestions: 1. Don't start a wildfire by your own actions; 2. Watch for lightning and the wind patterns; 3. If conditions are threatening, hike to water. And there is this gem of advice if you are being chased by a fire:

Lie down in a large, wet open area, or preferably a marsh. Or better yet, swim out into open water. If you have a canoe, don your life vest and get underneath your overturned canoe; you'll be able to breathe cool, trapped air and protect your lungs from heat damage until the fire passes.

The Captain Sparrow method of escaping fire

Okay, I am a little dubious about the need to get into your life vest, paddle the canoe into the water and flip it so that you can breathe underneath it. It seems to me, that unless you are on a very small river or stream which is barely passable by canoe, then you would be better off paddling away from the fire with your canoe. Perhaps I miss the point.

Anyway, suppose you aren't near Lake Woebegone, but are on a trail that runs along a ridge line? If the wind is blowing up the slope at you, thus blowing the fire toward you, get to the other side of the ridge and head away from the fire - if you know where the fire is, move laterally away from the fire, then head upwind so that the fire is not chasing you. If not, move down the slope looking for water and start moving laterally when you can. You do not want to be be chased by the fire, because is much faster than you and doesn't get tired like you will.

Look for fire breaks, or meadows or mountain springs or streams. Get wet and stay wet. Here's some good advice from MyLifeOutdoors:

Be on your guard and look for fires. If you smell or see smoke during the day, or a red and orange glow on the horizon at night, a fire is nearby. Leave the area immediately hiking downhill and upwind. If the fire is close (within a half mile) you may hear cracking or see sparks in the air. When this occurs it may be too late to flee, remember you can't outrun a fire. Instead find a place to make a stand. Look for lakes, ponds, rivers or other wet areas. If none exist look for bridges, ditches, caves, rock overhangs and the largest green grass open area you can find. Sand bars, gravel washes and rocky areas can also offer protection, the bigger the better. Clear out dry brush and other potential fuels. If a bridge or other shelter is unavailable, get to the lowest spot available and lay down. Even a small indention in the ground will increase the odds of the fire passing over without harm. Remove synthetic clothing and gear which can melt to your skin. Cover your head and face with any clothing that is NOT synthetic. Wet a cloth and wrap your face to help avoid breathing in smoke and superheated air.

Finally, while all this excitement is going on, remember the words of the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy: "Don't Panic."

Which is right, because mindless action caused by panic most certainly will kill you dead. Instead, before you go into the woods, have a plan for even crazy events like getting caught in a forest fire then follow that plan. You know, "Plan your hike and hike your plan."

A Little Monday Reading: H. Beam Piper's "Operation R.S.V.P."

From Gutenberg.org, a 1951 classic from the pen of H.Beam Piper. Written as science fiction, some might see some parallels between Mr. Piper's projected word of 1984 and the world of 2014 as we live it. Some might not.

The Project Gutenberg EBook of Operation R.S.V.P., by Henry Beam Piper

This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with
almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or
re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included
with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org

Title: Operation R.S.V.P.
Author: Henry Beam Piper
Release Date: April 26, 2006 [EBook #18261]
Language: English
Character set encoding: ASCII

*** START OF THIS PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK OPERATION R.S.V.P. ***
Produced by Greg Weeks, Sankar Viswanathan, and the Online
Distributed Proofreading Team at http://www.pgdp.net
Transcriber's Note:
This etext was produced from Amazing Stories January 1951. Extensive
research did not uncover any evidence that the copyright on this
publication was renewed.

OPERATION R.S.V.P.

By H. Beam Piper


_Vladmir N. Dzhoubinsky, Foreign Minister, Union of East European
Soviet Republics, to Wu Fung Tung, Foreign Minister, United Peoples'
Republics of East Asia_:


15 Jan. 1984

Honored Sir:

Pursuant to our well known policy of exchanging military and scientific information with the Government, of friendly Powers, my Government takes great pleasure in announcing the completely
successful final tests of our new nuclear-rocket guided missile _Marxist Victory_. The test launching was made from a position south of Lake Balkash; the target was located in the East Siberian Sea.

In order to assist you in appreciating the range of the new guided missile _Marxist Victory_, let me point out that the distance from launching-site to target is somewhat over 50 percent greater than the
distance from launching-site to your capital, Nanking.

My Government is still hopeful that your Government will revise its present intransigeant position on the Khakum River dispute.

I have the honor, etc., etc., etc.,

V. N. Dzhoubinsky



_Wu Fung Tung, to Vladmir N. Dzhoubinsky_:


7 Feb., 1984

Estimable Sir:

My Government was most delighted to learn of the splendid triumph of your Government in developing the new guided missile _Marxist Victory_, and at the same time deeply relieved. We had, of course,
detected the release of nuclear energy incident to the test, and inasmuch as it had obviously originated in the disintegration of a quantity of Uranium 235, we had feared that an explosion had occurred at your Government's secret uranium plant at Khatanga. We have long known of the lax security measures in effect at this plant, and have, as a consequence, been expecting some disaster there.

I am therefore sure that your Government will be equally gratified to learn of the perfection, by my Government, of our own new guided missile _Celestial Destroyer_, which embodies, in greatly improved
form, many of the features of your own Government's guided missile _Marxist Victory_. Naturally, your own scientific warfare specialists have detected the release of energy incident to the explosion of our own improved thorium-hafnium interaction bomb; this bomb was exploded over the North Polar ice cap, about two hundred miles south of the Pole, on about 35 degrees East Longitude, almost due north of your
capital city of Moscow. The launching was made from a site in Thibet.

Naturally, my Government cannot deviate from our present just and reasonable attitude in the Khakum River question. Trusting that your Government will realize this, I have the honor to be,

Your obedient and respectful servant,

Wu Fung Tung


_From N. Y. TIMES, Feb. 20, 1984:_

AFGHAN RULER FETED AT NANKING

Ameer Shere Ali Abdallah Confers With
UPREA Pres. Sung Li-Yin


_UEESR Foreign Minister Dzhoubinsky to Maxim G. Krylenkoff, Ambassador
at Nanking:_

3 March, 1984

Comrade Ambassador:

It is desired that you make immediate secret and confidential repeat secret and confidential inquiry as to the whereabouts of Dr. Dimitri O. Voronoff, the noted Soviet rocket expert, designer of the new guided missile _Marxist Victory_, who vanished a week ago from the Josef Vissarionovitch Djugashvli Reaction-Propulsion Laboratories at Molotovgorod. It is feared in Government circles that this noted scientist has been abducted by agents of the United Peoples' Republics of East Asia, possibly to extract from him, under torture, information of a secret technical nature.

As you know, this is but the latest of a series of such disappearances, beginning about five years ago, when the Khakum River question first arose.

Your utmost activity in this matter is required.

Dzhoubinsky




_Ambassador Krylenkoff to Foreign Minister Dzhoubinsky:_


9 March, 1984

Comrade Foreign Minister:

Since receipt of yours of 3/3/'84, I have been utilizing all resources at my disposal in the matter of the noted scientist D. O. Voronoff, and availing myself of all sources of information, e.g., spies, secret agents, disaffected elements of the local population, and including two UPREA Cabinet Ministers on my payroll. I regret to report that results of this investigation have been entirely negative. No one here appears to know anything of the whereabouts of Dr. Voronoff.

At the same time, there is considerable concern in UPREA Government circles over the disappearances of certain prominent East Asian scientists, e.g.. Dr. Hong Foo, the nuclear physicist; Dr. Hin Yang-Woo, the great theoretical mathematician; Dr. Mong Shing, the electronics expert. I am informed that UPREA Government sources are attributing these disappearances to us.

I can only say that I am sincerely sorry that this is not the case.

Krylenkoff




_Wu Fung Tung to Vladmir N. Dzhoubinsky:_


21 April, 1984

Estimable Sir:

In accordance with our established policy of free exchange with friendly Powers of scientific information, permit me to inform your Government that a new mutated disease-virus has been developed in our biological laboratories, causing a highly contagious disease similar in symptoms to bubonic plague, but responding to none of the treatments for this latter disease. This new virus strain was accidentally produced in the course of some experiments with radioactivity.

In spite of the greatest care, it is feared that this virus has spread beyond the laboratory in which it was developed. We warn you most urgently of the danger that it may have spread to the UEESR; enclosed are a list of symptoms, etc.

My Government instructs me to advise your Government that the attitude of your Government in the Khakum River question is utterly unacceptable, and will require considerable revision before my Government can even consider negotiation with your Government on the subject.

Your obedient and respectful servant,

Wu Fung Tung




_From N. Y. Times, May 12, 1984:_

AFGHAN RULER FETED AT MOSCOW
Ameer sees Red Square Troop Review;
Confers with Premier-President Mouzorgin


_Sing Yat, UPREA Ambassador at Moscow, to Wu Fung Tung:_

26 June, 1984

Venerable and Honored Sir:

I regret humbly that I can learn nothing whatever about the fate of the learned scholars of science of whom you inquire, namely: Hong Foo, Hin Yang-Woo, Mong Shing, Yee Ho Li, Wong Fat, and Bao Hu-Shin. This
inability may be in part due to incompetence of my unworthy self, but none of my many sources of information, including Soviet Minister of Police Morgodoff, who is on my payroll, can furnish any useful data whatever. I am informed, however, that the UEESR Government is deeply concerned about similar disappearances of some of the foremost of their own scientists, including Voronoff, Jirnikov, Kagorinoff, Bakhorin, Himmelfarber and Pavlovinsky, all of whose dossiers are on file with our Bureau of Foreign Intelligence. I am further informed that the Government of the UEESR ascribes these disappearances to our own activities.

Ah, Venerable and Honored Sir, if this were only true!

Kindly condescend to accept compliments of,

Sing Yat


_Dzhoubinsky to Wu Fung Tung:_


6 October, 1984

Honored Sir:

Pursuant to our well known policy of exchanging scientific information with the Governments of friendly Powers, my Government takes the greatest pleasure in announcing a scientific discovery of inestimable value to the entire world. I refer to nothing less than a positive technique for liquidating rats as a species.

This technique involves treatment of male rats with certain types of hard radiations, which not only renders them reproductively sterile but leaves the rodents so treated in full possession of all other sexual functions and impulses. Furthermore, this condition of sterility is venereally contagious, so that one male rat so treated will sterilize all female rats with which it comes in contact, and these, in turn, will sterilize all male rats coming in contact with them. Our mathematicians estimate that under even moderately favorable circumstances, the entire rat population of the world could be sterilized from one male rat in approximately two hundred years.

Rats so treated have already been liberated in the granaries at Odessa; in three months, rat-trappings there have fallen by 26.4 percent, and grain-losses to rats by 32.09 percent.

We are shipping you six dozen sterilized male rats, which you can use for sterilization stock, and, by so augmenting their numbers, may duplicate our own successes.

Curiously enough, this effect of venereally contagious sterility was discovered quite accidentally, in connection with the use of hard radiations for human sterilization (criminals, mental defectives, etc.). Knowing the disastrous possible effects of an epidemic of contagious human sterility, all persons so sterilized were liquidated as soon as the contagious nature of their sterility had been discovered, with the exception of a dozen or so convicts, who had been released before this discovery was made. It is believed that at least some of them have made their way over the border and into the territory of the United Peoples' Republics of East Asia. I must caution your Government to be on the lookout of them. Among a people still practicing ancestor-worship, an epidemic of sterility would be a disaster indeed.

My Government must insist that your Government take some definite step toward the solution of the Khakum River question; the present position of the Government of the United Peoples' Republics of East Asia on
this subject is utterly unacceptable to the Government of the Union of East European Soviet Republics, and must be revised very considerably.

I have the honor, etc., etc.,

Vladmir N. Dzhoubinsky


_Coded radiogram, Dzhoubinsky to Krylenkoff:_

25 OCTOBER, 1984

ASCERTAIN IMMEDIATELY CAUSE OF RELEASE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY VICINITY OF NOVA ZEMBLA THIS AM

DZHOUBINSKY


_Coded radiogram, Wu Fung Tung to Sing Yat:_

25 OCTOBER, 1984

ASCERTAIN IMMEDIATELY CAUSE OF RELEASE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY VICINITY OF NOVA ZEMBLA THIS AM

WU


_Letter from the Ameer of Afghanistan to UEESR Premier-President
Mouzorgin and UPREA President Sung Li-Yin:_


26 October, 1984

SHERE ALI ABDALLAH, Ameer of Afghanistan, Master of Kabul, Lord of Herat and Kandahar, Keeper of Khyber Pass, Defender of the True Faith, Servant of the Most High and Sword-Hand of the Prophet; Ph.D.
(Princeton); Sc.B. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); M.A. (Oxford): to their Excellencies A.A. Mouzorgin, Premier-President of the Union of East European Soviet Republics, and Sung Li-Yin, President of the United Peoples' Republics of East Asia,

Greetings, in the name of Allah!

For the past five years, I have watched, with growing concern, the increasing tensions between your Excellencies' respective Governments, allegedly arising out of the so-called Khakum River question. It is my
conviction that this Khakum River dispute is the utterly fraudulent device by which both Governments hope to create a pretext for the invasion of India, each ostensibly to rescue that unhappy country from the rapacity of the other. Your Excellencies must surely realize that this is a contingency which the Government of the Kingdom of Afghanistan cannot and will not permit; it would mean nothing short of the national extinction of the Kingdom of Afghanistan, and the enslavement of the Afghan people.

Your Excellencies will recall that I discussed this matter most urgently on the occasions of my visits to your respective capitals of Moscow and Nanking, and your respective attitudes, on those occasions, has firmly convinced me that neither of your Excellencies is by nature capable of adopting a rational or civilized attitude toward this question. It appears that neither of your Excellencies has any intention of abandoning your present war of mutual threats and blackmail until forced to do so by some overt act on the part of one or the other of your Excellencies' Governments, which would result in physical war of pan-Asiatic scope and magnitude. I am further convinced that this deplorable situation arises out of the megalomaniac ambitions of the Federal Governments of the UEESR and the UPREA, respectively, and that the different peoples of what you unblushingly call your "autonomous" republics have no ambitions except, on a rapidly diminishing order of probability, to live out their natural span of years in peace. Therefore:

_In the name of ALLAH, the Merciful, the Compassionate: We, Shere Ali Abdallah, Ameer of Afghanistan, etc., do decree and command that the political entities known as the Union of East European Soviet Republics and the United Peoples' Republics of East Asia respectively are herewith abolished and dissolved into their constituent autonomous republics, each one of which shall hereafter enjoy complete sovereignty
within its own borders as is right and proper._

Now, in case either of you gentlemen feel inclined to laugh this off, let me remind you of the series of mysterious disappearances of some of the most noted scientists of both the UEESR and the UPREA, and let
me advise your Excellencies that these scientists are now residents and subjects of the Kingdom of Afghanistan, and are here engaged in research and development work for my Government. These gentlemen were not abducted, as you gentlemen seem to believe; they came here of their own free will, and ask nothing better than to remain here, where they are treated with dignity and honor, given material rewards--riches, palaces, harems, retinues of servants, etc.--and are also free from the intellectual and ideological restraints which make life so intolerable in your respective countries to any man above the order of intelligence of a cretin. In return for these benefactions, these eminent scientists have developed, for my Government, certain weapons. For example:

1.) A nuclear-rocket guided missile, officially designated as the _Sword of Islam_, vastly superior to your Excellencies' respective guided missiles _Marxist Victory_ and _Celestial Destroyer_. It should
be; it was the product of the joint efforts of Dr. Voronoff and Dr. Bao Hu-Shin, whom your Excellencies know.

2.) A new type of radar-radio-electronic defense screen, which can not only detect the approach of a guided missile, at any velocity whatever, but will automatically capture and redirect same. In case either of your Excellencies doubt this statement, you are invited to aim a rocket at some target in Afghanistan and see what happens.

3.) Both the UPREA mutated virus and the UEESR contagious sterility, with positive vaccines against the former and means of instrumental detection of the latter.

4.) A technique for initiating and controlling the Bethe carbon-hydrogen cycle. We are now using this as a source of heat for industrial and even domestic purposes, and we also have a carbon-hydrogen cycle bomb. Such a bomb, delivered by one of our _Sword of Islam_ Mark IV's, was activated yesterday over the Northern tip of Nova Zembla, at an altitude of four miles. I am enclosing photographic reproductions of views of this test, televised to Kabul by an accompanying _Sword of Islam_ Mark V observation rocket. I am informed that expeditions have been sent by both the UEESR and the UPREA to investigate; they should find some very interesting conditions. For one thing, they won't need their climbing equipment to get over the Nova Zembla Glacier; the Nova Zembla Glacier isn't there, any more.

5.) A lithium bomb. This has not been tested, yet. A lithium bomb is nothing for a country the size of Afghanistan to let off inside its own borders. We intend making a test with it within the next ten days, however If your Excellencies will designate a target, which must be at the center of an uninhabited area at least five hundred miles square, the test can be made in perfect safety. If not, I cannot answer the results; that will be in the hands of Allah, Who has ordained all things. No doubt Allah has ordained the destruction of either Moscow or Nanking; whichever city Allah has elected to erase, I will make it my personal responsibility to see to it that the other isn't slighted, either.

However, if your Excellencies decide to accede to my modest and reasonable demands, not later than one week from today, this test-launching will be cancelled as unnecessary. Of course, that would leave unsettled a bet I have made with Dr. Hong Foo--a star sapphire against his favorite Persian concubine--that the explosion of a lithium bomb will not initiate a chain reaction in the Earth's crust and so disintegrate this planet. This, of course, is a minor consideration, unworthy of Your notice.

Of course, I am aware that both your Excellencies have, in the past, fomented mutual jealousies and suspicions among the several "autonomous" republics under your respective jurisdictions, as an instrument of policy. If these peoples were, at this time, to receive full independence, the present inevitability of a pan-Asiatic war on a grand scale would be replaced only by the inevitability of a pan-Asiatic war by detail. Obviously, some single supra-national sovereignty is needed to maintain peace, and such a sovereignty should be established under some leadership not hitherto associated with either the former UEESR or the former UPREA. I humbly offer myself as President of such a supra-national organization, counting as a matter of course upon the whole-hearted support and co-operation of both your Excellencies. It might be well if both your Excellencies were to come here to Kabul to confer with me on this subject at your very earliest convenience.

The Peace of Allah be upon both your Excellencies!

Shere Ali Abdallah,
Ph.D., Sc.B., M.A.

_From N. Y. Times, Oct. 30, 1984:_

MOUZORGIN, SUN LI-YIN,
FETED AT KABUL
Confer With Ameer;
Discuss Peace Plans
Surprise Developments Seen....






End of the Project Gutenberg EBook of Operation R.S.V.P., by Henry Beam Piper

On Midrats 27 April 14: Episode 225- "The Long War Becomes a Teenager," with Bill Roggio

Please join us at 5pm EDT, 27 April 14 for Midrats Episode 225- "The Long War Becomes a Teenager," with Bill Roggio

It hasn't gone anywhere, the Long War, that is.

People may be suffering whiplash having to look back to Europe in the middle of a Pacific pivot, and the Arab spring wilted in to extremism and bloodshed - but the war against the West still goes on from lone wolf attacks at home, to drone strikes across the swath of southwest, south, and central Asia.

Coming back to Midrats for the full hour to discuss this and more will be Bill Roggio, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Bill is also the President of Public Multimedia Inc, a non-profit news organization; and the founder and Editor of The Long War Journal, a news site devoted to covering the war on terror. He has embedded with the US and the Iraqi military six times from 2005-08, and with the Canadian Army in Afghanistan in 2006. Bill served in the US Army and New Jersey National Guard from 1991-97.

Join us live if you can or pick the show up later by clicking here.

If you have questions for Bill, please join in the chat room and we'll pass on what we can.

Saturday is Heinlein Quote Day #5

From Have Space Suit—Will Travel (1958):

"Die trying” is the proudest human thing.

Friday Fun Film: The Naval Gun Factory

"Daddy, where do U.S. naval guns come from?"

Back in 1952, and for about 180 years before that, the answer was "The Naval Gun Factory" -



It should roll into Part 2, but if it doesn't here's

Part 2

Malacca Strait and South China Sea Piracy: Cargo Theft from Tankers

Incident 1: 17 Apr 14

:
A couple of reports of similar activities involving product theft.

A week ago, this interesting tale of armed robbery and product theft from the ICC's Live Piracy and Armed Robbery Report

Location detail: 26NM SSW of Pulau Aur
Type of Attack: Hijacked
Narrations:
17.04.2014: 2010 LT: Posn: 01:59.8N – 104:25.4E, 26NM SSW of Pulau Aur, Malaysia.
A product tanker was boarded and hijacked by around 16 heavily armed pirates who then transferred and stole part of the fuel cargo into smaller unknown tankers. Crew and ship properties were stolen and ship communication equipment damaged. Master and crew managed to repair the damage and proceed to a safe port.

Yesterday, there is this Al Jazeera report:

Armed pirates stole $2.5 million worth of diesel fuel from an oil tanker off the coast of Malaysia and took the captain and two other crew members with them, underscoring increasing threats to shipping in one of the world's busiest waterways, Malaysian maritime officials said Wednesday.
***
Eight Indonesian pirates in a fishing vessel boarded the Naniwa Maru No. 1 at about 1 a.m. local time on Tuesday off the coast of western Malaysia, the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency (MMEA) said.

The pirates pumped about 800,000 gallons of the 1.18 million gallons of diesel carried by the tanker into two waiting vessels and made off with three Indonesian crew members, including the captain and chief engineer, the agency said.
***
Malaysian shipping authorities believe some of the crew could have been part of the plot to steal the diesel.

"There is a possibility that the abducted crew was involved in the hijack based on new leads and that their personal documents, clothes and belongings were taken along with them," the MMEA said in a news release.

A Reuters report:

"We are very concerned," said Noel Choong, head of the International Maritime Bureau's Malaysia-based Piracy Reporting Centre, who added the ship was hijacked while sailing near the Malaysia town of Port Klang.

"It's the first time this has happened so far north in the Malacca Strait, and the first time they have kidnapped the crew. It's not an area where we have seen the modus operandi of ships hijacked for their cargo," he told Reuters.

Incident 2: 22 Apr 14

And the ICC Live Piracy and Armed Robbery Report:

Location detail: 3NM WNW OF ONE FATHOM BANK, OFF PORT KLANG,
Type of Attack: Hijacked
Narrations:
22.04.2014: 0055 LT: Posn: 02:59N – 100:54E, 3NM WNW of One Fathom Bank, off Port Klang, Malacca Strait.
A tanker was boarded and hijacked by around 10 heavily armed pirates who then transferred and stole part of the fuel cargo into smaller unknown tankers. Crew and ship properties were stolen and ship communication equipment damaged. The pirates kidnapped three crew members and escaped. The vessel and remaining crew safely arrived at a port.

So, does two make a pattern?

An interesting amount of logistics involved in getting the smaller tankers to the right place at the right time, I would think. You might think of it as organized crime. I wonder if they took lessons from folks in Nigeria?

Disaster Prep Wednesday: Electromagnetic Pulse Stuff

Ah, Electromagnetic Pulse. EMP. Turning out the lights, shutting down the grid, tossing man back into the dark ages.

Read the books? You know One Second After? Lightning Fall? Seen the television show? Perhaps the National Geographic American Blackout?

If so, you know that we are doomed. Doomed, I tell you!

Or maybe not.

Suppose we do a little preparation in anticipation of an EMP event? How much prep? I guess that depends on your assessment of the likelihood of an EMP event occurring during your lifetime. Does it make a difference if it's a man-made event, triggered by some nuclear explosion above the earth by some outlaw nation or transnational terror group or if it results from something the sun does?

No.

So, there are about (by my rough count) 30 zillion survivalist sites giving out advice on fending the result off an EMP "event."

Let's go with what FEMA says:

1. You are probably not going to suffer physically from the EMP source (unless, of course, it is an attack that involves lots of ground burst nuclear weapons, in which case EMP may be the least of your immediate concerns).
2. Your unhardened electronics (and those of the area around you) may, however, sustain damage. However, FEMA  notes:

   To put all this in perspective, we must emphasize that while many types of electrical/electronic equipment could be affected or even knocked out by the EMP from high-altitude bursts, a rather small percentage overall is likely to be damaged. There are so many scientific uncertainties that remain in this area of technology that no one can state with any degree of certainty just how much damage could be expected. Certainly, some automobile ignition systems could fail, as could some portions of telephone and radio communications and airline communications, navigational aids, and electrical/electronic equipment. However, the concept of total oblivion for all electronic equipment and data stored on magnetic media (disc or tape) in all North America is a fantasy without scientific validity.

What? Hey, go read for your self - it's on page 16 of FEMA 128, Chapter 4, which is linked to above.

Here's another place to go exploring, the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack, which published the lengthy, Critical National Infrastructures Report. This report does what its title suggests and looks at the effect of an EMP event on everything from merchant shipping to farming to . . . you. Well worth a read. The scary parts are things like long lead time transformers for the power grid and possibility of fly by wire aircraft developing control issues in flight. Food, water, electricity, communications, banking, oil and gas production and refining, emergency services, government - it all gets touched on.

Well, what to do at the minimum to prepare? First, you cannot do much about the big stuff - the national infrastructure is something to keep talking to your senators and representative and state and local governments about - it is politics and money and money is always in short supply, while politics is plentiful. Secondly, focus on what you and yours will need - and "yours" includes your neighbors because if they see you doing with while they are doing without, things might not stay neighborly (a point well made in that NatGeo show, by the way).

A lot of these preparations are like those of getting ready for other any disaster - have an emergency kit - food, water, comfort stuff (toilet paper, baby wipes, etc). Other preparations may include more exotic stuff - like making a Farady cage in which to keep your valuable electronics. By the way, a microwave oven is a Farraday cage - I guess you could keep a old one around and stick electronics in it. What and when depends, again, on your degree of concern. You can also make a Faraday cage out of a steel garbage can, as seen below:


Note that the can is lined with cardboard to isolate the can contents from the metal of the can. You can also test the success of your effort by putting an FM radio inside the can and then closing the lid. If you hear the radio, you need to do some more work.

As far as your car goes - well, it's a good time to invest in a bicycle. You probably need the exercise anyway. Or have an older car around without all the computers. My son's 1968 MGB is being held hostage in my garage while I work on it.

I have this idea that I could generate electricity through a steam engine powering. This guy will sell you a steam engine capable of providing "1500 watts of electrical power." I think you provide your own wood and a boiler. You can build your own boiler, I reckon. Or buy one. All the old Navy BT's and snipes will want one.

Good luck.

Fire Scout? We don't need no stinkin' Fire Scout . . .

Every now and then CDR Salamander has been known to refer to some of my posts. Turnabout being fair play, let's look at his recent post on the proposed cancellation of the rotary winged MQ-8 Fire Scout drone "wonder copter" as set out in "Because after awhile, people tire of being made the fool"

The whole helo-drone program was a good experiment, but as with many experiments as of late - it was . . . oversold . . .

Some of you may recall that prototype of unmanned aerial vehicles, the Drone Anti-Submarine Helicopter (DASH), which has graced these pages before. A program that wandered through the fleet and other places for something like 44 years ending in this final flight (long video - 46 minutes- flying stuff begins about 33:50):



During its day, DASH was used for ASW, gun spotting and as the butt of a zillion sea stories: "It went out and then disappeared over the horizon." In its evolution out of the fleet, some spotted a conspiracy:

The frequently asked question of "Why is it that an aircraft that was so ahead-of-its-time, then in the 1960s, is not used by our Navy/military, today" from our public and military visitors alike needs to be answered and here at the Gyrodyne Helicopter Historical Foundation (GHHF), we felt that the NAVY should answer that question.
Accordingly, here is an internal Navy memo, since declassified, written by Lieutenant Commander Ira B. Anderson USN in 1970 to the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) which offers a glimpse of the internal struggle waged by the Naval Aviators which were frightened at the possibility of being replaced by Drones and the Drone supporters who were convinced that being freed of concern over the loss of human life, true expansion of the military applications of Drones/UAVs could be attained furthering our nations offensive and defensive capabilities.
In that struggle for control, the Navy failed to support its' state-of-the-art UAV program (the first of its kind in the world) and therefore failed DASH.

On the other hand, one of the highlights of the Navy League's Sea, Air and Space Exposition was a report on a software and hardware package that would allow any helicopter to be converted to an unmanned aircraft, as set out here:

A package of sensors and software that is claimed to be able to turn any helicopter into an unmanned craft has passed two demonstration flights.

"In the demonstration tests at Quantico, a Marine with no prior experience with the technology was given a handheld device and 15 minutes of training," said a press release from the Office of Naval Research. "The Marine was able to quickly and easily program in the supplies needed and the destination, and the helicopters arrived quickly-even autonomously selecting an alternative landing site based on last-second no-fly-zone information added in from the Marine.

The Autonomous Aerial Cargo/Utility System AACUS consists of a sensor and software package that can be fitted to manned helicopters to avoid obstacles in low visibility conditions. The same package also enables a helicopter to become an unmanned aircraft.

"A self-flying robot with laser beams. It doesn't get much cooler than that."

Okay. It's being used for cargo helicopters. How about if you put one of those packages on - say- a Super Cobra? A relatively low-cost anti-surface weapon system launched from an LCS? Or any ship with a flight deck?

We already own the aircraft - and they don't need to be state of the art to do that sort of mission. Just saying . . .

Office of Naval Research AACUS info here.

So, the basic question is whether the expense of Fire Scout can be re-directed to making AACUS available for non-cargo use? If so, why pay to develop Fire Scout?

Easter

Saturday is Heinlein Quote Day #4

From The Rolling Stones:

Everything is theoretically impossible, until it is done. One could write a history of science in reverse by assembling the solemn pronouncements of highest authority about what could not be done and could never happen. - Robert A. Heinlein

Friday Fun Film: "Your Ship in Action" (1944)

From construction to operation - U.S. Navy cruisers for the fleet: