Friday Film: Effects Of An Atomic Blast On Electric Power Facilities

EMP?

Recently released report dated 2017 (released to public in July 2018) NUCLEAR EMP ATTACK SCENARIOS AND COMBINED-ARMS CYBER WARFARE (pdf), leading to this piece by Bill Gertz China, Russia Building Super-EMP Bombs for ‘Blackout Warfare’:

"Nuclear EMP attack is part of the military doctrines, plans, and exercises of Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran for a revolutionary new way of warfare against military forces and civilian critical infrastructures by cyber, sabotage, and EMP," the report states.
***
The latest EMP commission report, "Nuclear EMP Attack Scenarios and Combined-Arms Cyber Warfare," is the 13th and final report of the commission. It is dated July 2017. However, as a result of a lengthy security review the report was made public last week.

Well, it's not like we haven't known of this potential threat and more - here's a film based on 1955 "Civil Effects Tests" -



And an 2016 interview with the author of the report -

Friday Fun Film: "Duck and Cover" (1951)

"We all know the atomic bomb is very dangerous . . ."



See North Korean Threat: EMP? Death by Threats?.

And U.S. Confirms North Korean Sub Missiles:

The commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, in charge of U.S. nuclear missile forces, confirmed on Thursday that North Korea is developing a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).
***
The comments were the first official U.S. government confirmation that North Korea is working on a new underwater missile capability and comes as the regime in Pyongyang has tested nuclear weapons and claims to have miniaturized a weapon to fit on top of a missile.

Duck and cover? Better have a better plan than that.

Disaster Prep Wednesday: Electromagnetic Pulse Stuff

Ah, Electromagnetic Pulse. EMP. Turning out the lights, shutting down the grid, tossing man back into the dark ages.

Read the books? You know One Second After? Lightning Fall? Seen the television show? Perhaps the National Geographic American Blackout?

If so, you know that we are doomed. Doomed, I tell you!

Or maybe not.

Suppose we do a little preparation in anticipation of an EMP event? How much prep? I guess that depends on your assessment of the likelihood of an EMP event occurring during your lifetime. Does it make a difference if it's a man-made event, triggered by some nuclear explosion above the earth by some outlaw nation or transnational terror group or if it results from something the sun does?

No.

So, there are about (by my rough count) 30 zillion survivalist sites giving out advice on fending the result off an EMP "event."

Let's go with what FEMA says:

1. You are probably not going to suffer physically from the EMP source (unless, of course, it is an attack that involves lots of ground burst nuclear weapons, in which case EMP may be the least of your immediate concerns).
2. Your unhardened electronics (and those of the area around you) may, however, sustain damage. However, FEMA  notes:

   To put all this in perspective, we must emphasize that while many types of electrical/electronic equipment could be affected or even knocked out by the EMP from high-altitude bursts, a rather small percentage overall is likely to be damaged. There are so many scientific uncertainties that remain in this area of technology that no one can state with any degree of certainty just how much damage could be expected. Certainly, some automobile ignition systems could fail, as could some portions of telephone and radio communications and airline communications, navigational aids, and electrical/electronic equipment. However, the concept of total oblivion for all electronic equipment and data stored on magnetic media (disc or tape) in all North America is a fantasy without scientific validity.

What? Hey, go read for your self - it's on page 16 of FEMA 128, Chapter 4, which is linked to above.

Here's another place to go exploring, the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack, which published the lengthy, Critical National Infrastructures Report. This report does what its title suggests and looks at the effect of an EMP event on everything from merchant shipping to farming to . . . you. Well worth a read. The scary parts are things like long lead time transformers for the power grid and possibility of fly by wire aircraft developing control issues in flight. Food, water, electricity, communications, banking, oil and gas production and refining, emergency services, government - it all gets touched on.

Well, what to do at the minimum to prepare? First, you cannot do much about the big stuff - the national infrastructure is something to keep talking to your senators and representative and state and local governments about - it is politics and money and money is always in short supply, while politics is plentiful. Secondly, focus on what you and yours will need - and "yours" includes your neighbors because if they see you doing with while they are doing without, things might not stay neighborly (a point well made in that NatGeo show, by the way).

A lot of these preparations are like those of getting ready for other any disaster - have an emergency kit - food, water, comfort stuff (toilet paper, baby wipes, etc). Other preparations may include more exotic stuff - like making a Farady cage in which to keep your valuable electronics. By the way, a microwave oven is a Farraday cage - I guess you could keep a old one around and stick electronics in it. What and when depends, again, on your degree of concern. You can also make a Faraday cage out of a steel garbage can, as seen below:


Note that the can is lined with cardboard to isolate the can contents from the metal of the can. You can also test the success of your effort by putting an FM radio inside the can and then closing the lid. If you hear the radio, you need to do some more work.

As far as your car goes - well, it's a good time to invest in a bicycle. You probably need the exercise anyway. Or have an older car around without all the computers. My son's 1968 MGB is being held hostage in my garage while I work on it.

I have this idea that I could generate electricity through a steam engine powering. This guy will sell you a steam engine capable of providing "1500 watts of electrical power." I think you provide your own wood and a boiler. You can build your own boiler, I reckon. Or buy one. All the old Navy BT's and snipes will want one.

Good luck.

North Korean Threat: EMP? Death by Threats?

Source: VOA

About 8 or 9 years ago there were dire warnings about the possible danger of some sort of attack that could result in "electromagnetic pulse" ("EMP") damage to the U.S. (see Yet Another Threat). Sen Jon Kyl, Speaker Gingrich and others raised alarms.

An old ground burst

Now, these issues rise again, this time with the North Koreans as the threat. For example, from The Washington Times :

North Korea has labored for years and starved its people so it could develop an intercontinental missile capable of reaching the United States. Why? Because they have a special kind of nuclear weapon that could destroy the United States with a single blow.

In summer 2004, a delegation of Russian generals warned the Congressional Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Commission that secrets had leaked to North Korea for a decisive new nuclear weapon — a Super-EMP warhead.

Any nuclear weapon detonated above an altitude of 30 kilometers will generate an electromagnetic pulse that will destroy electronics and could collapse the electric power grid and other critical infrastructures — communications, transportation, banking and finance, food and water — that sustain modern civilization and the lives of 300 million Americans. All could be destroyed by a single nuclear weapon making an EMP attack.

More at Chaos from the Sky: Why the EMP Threat Is Real:

An EMP attack would cause cascading failures in other critical infrastructures and a possible national blackout. These conclusions are based on tests showing that E1 high-EMP simulators couple well to electric grid distribution power lines and low-voltage cables. Radasky and Pry point out that “electronic control systems are effectively the Achilles’ heel of our power delivery network.”

The electrical power grid supports all of America’s other critical infrastructures and is vulnerable to an EMP. Any credible threat depends on critical communications infrastructures. If an EMP attack should succeed, more than two-thirds of the American people could perish within 12 months of the event.

And more at Rebuttal to “The EMP threat: fact, fiction, and response” (co-authored by Dr. Pry who also wrote the Washington Times opinion):

One scenario of particular concern to the EMP Commission is that rogue states or terrorists could make an “anonymous EMP attack” by launching a short- or medium-range missile off a freighter outside US territorial waters.22 This would eliminate the need for an ICBM to deliver the EMP attack. Since the EMP strike would come from no one’s territory, it could also conceal the identity of the attacker. Although it would not be necessary, an additional layer of anonymity could be achieved by a state sponsor by contracting with terrorists to carry out the attack.

It should be noted that Dr. Pry is also head of EMPACT America, " . . . a bipartisan . . . organization for citizens concerned about protecting the American people from a nuclear or natural electromagnetic pulse (EMP) catastrophe."

The Institute for Foreign Policy Studies has produced a white paper on Counter the EMP Threat: The Role of Missile Defense (pdf)(2010) that suggests improvements to the Aegis BMD force and other practices to reduce the risk.

Does the DPRK have a missile capable of reaching the U.S.? Take a look at the chart above - the answer currently seems to be "no" - but North Korea rocket 'has 10,000km range' the BBC reported in December 2012. It appears the NORKs have a new system, the Unha-3 that has longer legs than what they've been up to previously but there are questions about its payload capacity:

Despite western press speculation that the Unha 3 could be the basis for an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the United States, this three stage rocket is incapable of lofting the payload necessary for that mission. Similarly the American and Soviet analogues (Thor and R-14) could not be upgraded for such a mission. In 1957 Soviet Chief Designer Yangel sold his R-16 ICBM concept to the leadership as simply his R-12 IRBM serving as the second stage to his R-14 MRBM. In fact substantial redesign and repackaging of all elements, and new propellants were necessary to provide a viable ICBM. The same applies to any North Korean design, which would require a new 3-m diameter first stage.

However, some cautionary advice in the update to Business Insider's North Korea Is Not Even Close To Hitting The US With A Nuke, which also linked to this video from USC professor Gruntman:

ASTE 520 Spacecraft Design - North Korea Satellite Launch from USC Graduate and Professional Pr on Vimeo.
Update: Some key comments begin abour 16:27.

Just to add to the tale, comes this DPRK propaganda photo (via The Washington Post) , purportedly showing the lines of attack on the U.S. mainland, including, oh, my!, the Eastern Seaboard on the high tech chart in the background:

Gotta like those hats.

See also from nknews.org: ANALYSIS: North Korean Photo Reveals ‘U.S. Mainland Strike Plan’.

And this delightful piece from the DPRK's own Central News Agency Kim Jong Un Convenes Operation Meeting, Finally Examines and Ratifies Plan for Firepower Strike:

He said the enemies are bringing dark clouds of a nuclear war testing the DPRK's self-restraint, adding the DPRK can no longer tolerate this. He ordered the KPA to blow up and reduce everything to ashes at a single strike, if an order is issued.

He said the heroic service personnel of the KPA and all other people, their hearts burning with irrepressible resentment at the reckless war provocation moves of the U.S. imperialists, are now waiting for a final order of the WPK Central Committee, hardening their will to turn out in a do-or-die battle with the enemies.

Finally, I added this as an update to a previous post, but it worth considering in light of the above, George H. Wittman's Peace Through Bluster and Missiles.

Fun and games with the NORKs.

EMP Again

Ships launching nuclear warhead-tipped missiles into our atmosphere and then . . . well, you won't be reading this. Or much of anything on a computer.

Of course, if we continue to develop our missile defense systems, then the threat described below is lessened, though, as the saying goes, "The bad guys only have to be lucky once."

The electromagnetic pulse threat raised again at Iran and the EMP Threat:

The radicals ruling Iran have openly talked about it as they have called for the destruction of America and a new world order that excludes America. While pursuing their nuclear bomb project, the Revolutionary Guards of Iran have successfully test-launched a ballistic missile from a ship in the Caspian Sea. Recently, they also announced that all their vessels now have been armed with long-range ballistic missiles, and that soon they will start a mission in the Atlantic Ocean that extends into the Gulf of Mexico.

The Guards have also progressed with their missile program under the guise of a space project. Soon they will launch another rocket into space, this time carrying a 330-kilogram payload, a sign that they can now deliver a nuclear warhead to any point on Earth. The Guards have openly stated that the rocket used to launch the satellite can be shot parallel to the Earth’s orbit, which would transform it into an intercontinental ballistic missile.

I've been posting intermittently about this threat since 2005, see Yet Another Threat and Iran plans to knock out U.S. with 1 nuclear bomb or even 2009's EagleSpeak: Warning about EMP since 2005.

Heck we had a Midrats show on the topic - Fearless Navy Bloggers Take to the Air: Halloween Special -Episode 43 EMP Threat: Hype or Other? 10/31/2010:

Listen to internet radio with Midrats on Blog Talk Radio

It's always a good idea to get ready with that disaster kit, with water filters, etc. Works for natural disasters, too.

Danger from the Sea: Electromagnetic Weapons

It may be small concern, but a concern it is, as set out in a Science News blog in a post by Janet Ralof Electric grid still very vulnerable to electromagnetic weaponry Electric grid still very vulnerable to electromagnetic weaponry":

EMP is a powerful and potentially devastating form of electromagnetic "fallout." It’s usually associated with nuclear weapons, although it can be triggered by any major explosive bursts. Unlike radioactive fallout, this rain won’t directly harm living things. It will just catastrophically fry all electronics and modern electrical systems by inducing staggeringly large and rapid current or voltage surges.

It makes a great equalizer for small nations looking to stand up to military Goliaths, argues Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (Rep.-Md.), a former research scientist and engineer who has worked in the past on projects for NASA and the military. All one needs to wreak some serious EMP damage, he charges, is a sea-worthy steamer, $100,000 to buy a scud-missile launcher, and a crude nuclear weapon. Then fling the device high into the air and detonate its warhead.

Such a system might not paralyze the entire United States, he concedes. ”But you could shut down all of New England. And if you missed by 100 miles, it’s as good as a bulls eye.”

As noted in a EagleSpeak: Warning about EMP since 2005, a properly placed EMP attack effectively could cast us back in time 200 years. No running water, no refrigeration, no electricity, no sewage - anything run by computers could be shut down.

How EMP works.

And you can't say you haven't been warned. See also here.

EagleSpeak: Warning about EMP since 2005

EMP is getting press again, thanks to a new book, One Second After. Not a new topic here, as you can see.

And others have been on the topic earlier, for example - Popular Mechanics since 2001:

The next Pearl Harbor will not announce itself with a searing flash of nuclear light or with the plaintive wails of those dying of Ebola or its genetically engineered twin. You will hear a sharp crack in the distance. By the time you mistakenly identify this sound as an innocent clap of thunder, the civilized world will have become unhinged. Fluorescent lights and television sets will glow eerily bright, despite being turned off. The aroma of ozone mixed with smoldering plastic will seep from outlet covers as electric wires arc and telephone lines melt. Your Palm Pilot and MP3 player will feel warm to the touch, their batteries overloaded. Your computer, and every bit of data on it, will be toast. And then you will notice that the world sounds different too. The background music of civilization, the whirl of internal-combustion engines, will have stopped. Save a few diesels, engines will never start again. You, however, will remain unharmed, as you find yourself thrust backward 200 years, to a time when electricity meant a lightning bolt fracturing the night sky. This is not a hypothetical, son-of-Y2K scenario. It is a realistic assessment of the damage the Pentagon believes could be inflicted by a new generation of weapons--E-bombs.

See also here.

Okay, what's your plan to go back to the "old ways" should there be an EMP event?

Some guidance have been taken see here fro an Army Corps of Engineers EMP hardening pamphlet. See Low Cost EMP/EMI TEMPEST Shielding Technology. Faraday cages for everyone? See here and here, which, of course, from the "survivalist" camp. Where's Burt Gummer when you need him?

A warning about a seaborne threat "that could dwarf 9/11"

A familiar threat reappears (see here and here in an editorial in Investors Business Daily here:

The extent of the threat posed by Iran getting a nuclear warhead to place atop its Shahab missiles is not limited to Israel or targets in the Middle East and Europe. A new study by the Sage Policy Group of Baltimore suggests that an armed Iran would put the U.S. itself in the cross hairs of nuclear devastation.

The threat is called electromagnetic pulse, and it is the one way we could lose the war on terror. The study, titled "Initial Assessment of Electromagnetic Pulse Impact Upon Baltimore-Washington-Richmond Region," says a Scud-type missile launched from a small ship 200 miles off our coast would cause $771 billion in damage, equal to 7% of our annual gross domestic product.

This threat to our national security was the subject of study by the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse Attack, established by unanimous consent of the House and Senate. Released on the same day in 2005 as the 9/11 Commission report, it was virtually ignored.

Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, who wrote a foreword to the Sage Group Study, says, "EMP is a low-risk, but asymmetrical form of devastating attack that would dwarf the scale of damage from the 9/11 terrorist attack."

In his foreword, Bartlett said: "The EMP Commission found that a short- or medium-range missile, like a Scud or Iran's Shahab-3, launched off a freighter, could make an EMP attack on the United States. Iran has practiced such a launch-mode, firing a Scud missile off a vessel in the Caspian Sea."

Dr. Peter Vincent Pry, a senior staffer with the EMP Commission, has testified before a Senate subcommittee on terrorism, technology and homeland security that Iran has successfully test-fired a missile from a ship in the Caspian Sea and that Iranian tests of their Shahab-3 missile have involved several high-altitude explosions.

As Pry noted: "The Western press has described these test-flights as failures, because the missiles did not complete their ballistic trajectories. Iran has officially described all of the same tests as successful. The flight tests would be successful, if Iran were practicing an EMP attack."

Naturally, the Democrats in Congress have cut the budget for a defensive system that might help against such a threat:

In the face of this threat, our Democratic Congress has drastically slashed President Bush's fiscal 2008 budget request for the Air Force's airborne laser program.

The ABL uses a modified 747-400F equipped with a system that locates and track ballistic missiles in the boost phase of their flight, when they're most vulnerable, then accurately points and fires a high-energy laser to destroy them.

ABL aircraft patrolling our coasts are needed to defend against the EMP threat, and the program should be fully funded by a Democratic Congress that says Bush hasn't done enough about homeland security.

See also here. A reduction in funding may delay the ABL program- but it is part of a missile defense system that many Democratic congresspeople are on record as not supporting.

UPDATE: It may be that the funding for the ABL will not be cut -- see here:

Senators are planning to cut budgets for the space interceptor portion of the controversial US missile defence programme, according to reports. However, it appears that a complementary scheme to blast enemy ICBMs shortly after takeoff using a giant laser cannon mounted in a jumbo jet will be fully funded.

According to a report by Aviation Week & Space Technology, Senate subcommittee members who have been marking up the US defence spending package gave some hints earlier in the week.
The ABL Boeing 747. Photo: USAF

ABL laser plane. Really big projection screen not included.

It seems that the ground-based mid-course defence layer of the proposed American missile shield will not get the money requested by the Bush administration. In particular, the draft Senate bill will cut appropriations for planned interceptor and radar sites in Eastern Europe.
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What hasn't yet been shown is the feasibility of making a missile explode by lighting it up with a raygun, let alone a raygun that has to fit in a plane. But Boeing, leaders of the Airborne Laser (ABL) programme, have their modified jumbo jet all ready to go. They also claim successful ground tests of the necessary laser machinery. The firm recently swore blind that if they got the full budget request, they'd blast a missile using ABL in 2009. (They said 2005 last time, in 2002.)

The idea of ABL is to produce a fleet of raygun jumbos which might patrol near, say, North Korea (just to pluck a name from the air). As the ICBMs lifted up through the atmosphere, the ABL planes would disintegrate them with high-powered lasers from up to 400km away. Being mostly pressurised tanks full of explosive rocket fuel, ICBM boosters are fairly prone to blowing up if even you leave them alone; so this is a bit more feasible than it sounds. That doesn't make an ABL simple to build, though.

It now appears that the Senators plan to call Boeing's bluff; AW&ST report that the subcommittee scribble on the draft bill approves the full ABL request of $549m in the next fiscal year. The aerospace colossus – which is partnered with most of the US arms industry on ABL – may soon have to make good on its promise, if the subcommittee plans are approved.

See also here.

Yet Another Threat

Thanks to American Scribbles for finding another reason to raise the threat level in Yet Another Threat. Scribbles references a Washington Post piece by Arizona Senator Kyl which includes:

Recently a Senate Judiciary subcommittee of which I am chairman held a hearing on a major threat to the American people, one that could come not only from terrorist organizations such as al Qaeda but from rogue nations such as Iran and North Korea.

An electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack on the American homeland, said one of the distinguished scientists who testified at the hearing, is one of only a few ways that the United States could be defeated by its enemies -- terrorist or otherwise. And it is probably the easiest. A single Scud missile, carrying a single nuclear weapon, detonated at the appropriate altitude, would interact with the Earth's atmosphere, producing an electromagnetic pulse radiating down to the surface at the speed of light. Depending on the location and size of the blast, the effect would be to knock out already stressed power grids and other electrical systems across much or even all of the continental United States, for months if not years.

Too farfetched? Here's an earlier post on Iran placing missiles on merchant hulls. And Scribbles has other links on his post that relate to the topic.

How EMP weapons work here and an August 2004 Heritage report here:

An EMP attack damages all unprotected electronic equipment within the blast's "line of sight" (the EMP's "footprint" on the earth's surface). The size of the footprint is determined by the altitude of the explosion. The higher the altitude, the greater the land area affected. A Scud-type ballistic missile launched from a vessel in U.S. coastal waters and detonated at an altitude of 95 miles could degrade electronic systems across one-quarter of the United States. A more powerful missile launched from North Korea could probably deliver a warhead 300 miles above America--enough to degrade the electronic systems across the entire continental United States.

Need more? A July 2004 Missile Threat.com warning:

Such an attack would not require state-of-the-art missiles. Neither high accuracy nor a long range would be necessary. On the contrary, the report notes, terrorists or state actors could deliver an EMP attack with a “relatively unsophisticated missile.” And yet today, we remain defenseless against even an “unsophisticated” missile attack. It is worth noting that although the EMP threat from “terrorism” and “non-state actors” figure prominently in the report, Reuters’ reporting mentions neither, and notes only that North Korea and Iran could be seeking such a capability.

It's that old asymmetrical warfare thing again...