When Does China's "Water Cannon" Weapon Use Become an Act of Armed Conflict?

China's bullying of the Philippines may trigger a defense agreement with the U.S. as set out in China’s Attacks on Philippine Resupply Missions Test 70-Year-Old Defense Pact

Six days after China Coast Guard cutters blasted out the windows of a Philippine resupply ship with a water cannon, Manila is weighing whether a 70-year-old mutual defense pact could compel the U.S. military to defend Filipino forces in the South China Sea as a result.

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The attack, the ninth and most aggressive since Chinese cutters restarted a campaign blocking the monthly resupply runs to the World War II-era Sierra Madre, is prompting politicians, analysts and lawyers across the Pacific to weigh the U.S. obligation to come to Manila’s aid under a 1951 mutual defense pact.

Both the U.S. State and Defense departments issued statements this week pledging commitment to the treaty.

“The United States reaffirms that Article IV of the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty extends to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft – including those of its Coast Guard – anywhere in the South China Sea,” reads the statement from Foggy Bottom.

While the worst-case scenario under the defense treaty could lead to open war with China, the agreement has options for the U.S. to support Manila diplomatically short of armed conflict. However, the 1951 treaty’s application in the 21st century raises questions about whether the Chinese use of water cannons constitutes an armed attack or if the resupply missions are categorized as civilian or military, opening up several legal interpretations.

Read the whole article.

The question of whether such use of water cannons by China constitutes an "armed" attack sufficient to trigger the defense pact has been frequently raised on our Midrats podcast. China's assertion of entitlement to vast areas of the South China Sea and its aggressive efforts to enforce those claims despite a lack of legal justification are an interesting test case in how close to a line it can walk before triggering similar counter activities or more. However, it is vital that the U.S. support, in every way possible, our allies and treaty partners in the region.

A Government of Thugs, Acting Thuggish: "China to require foreign vessels to report in ‘territorial waters" The Hindu reports

The Hindu reports China to require foreign vessels to report in ‘territorial waters

Over $5 trillion trade passes through the South China Sea, and 55% of India’s trade pass through its waters and the Malacca Straits, according to estimates by India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). China claims under a so-called “nine dash line” on its maps most of the South China Sea’s waters, which are disputed by several other countries, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia.

While it remains unclear how, whether, and where China plans to enforce this new regulation starting Wednesday, the Maritime Safety Administration said in a notice “operators of submersibles, nuclear vessels, ships carrying radioactive materials and ships carrying bulk oil, chemicals, liquefied gas and other toxic and harmful substances are required to report their detailed information upon their visits to Chinese territorial waters,” the Communist Party-run Global Times reported.

There's more to the story, as set out in China's Global Times, a cheesy stalking horse Chinese government propaganda publication, story is here:

Some people connected the regulation to unmanned spy devices that coastal fishermen have captured from time to time.

By mid-April, China has rewarded 91 fishermen living in coastal cities for capturing different types of foreign devices with spying functions since 2016 as the country faces a growing threat to its maritime security.

But the submersibles mentioned in the announcement refer to manned rather than unmanned spy devices, Song Zhongping, a military expert and TV commentator, told the Global Times on Sunday.

Song said that the new announcement showcases China's determination to regulate the foreign vessels' right of use within the country's territorial waters, which should be based on proper identification.

Guess they have a lot to hide in addition to their outright aggression. It seems they are determined to irritate their neighbors and their neighbors' allies.

China as Bully: Harassing the Other Nations Along the South China Sea

Excellent read from the LA Times'Shashank Bengali and Vo Kieu Bao UyenSunken boats. Stolen gear. Fishermen are prey as China conquers a strategic sea:

Unfazed by rising global criticism, China's navy, coast guard and paramilitary fleet has rammed fishing boats, harassed oil exploration vessels, held combat drills and shadowed U.S. naval patrols. The escalating show of force has overwhelmed smaller Southeast Asian states that also claim parts of the sea, one of the world's busiest fishing and trade corridors and a repository of untapped oil and natural gas.

Beijing's maritime expansionism illustrates not only the Chinese Communist Party's growing military might, but also its willingness to defy neighbors and international laws to fulfill President Xi Jinping's sweeping visions of power.

In its strategic quest to dominate the waterway separating the Asian mainland from the island of Borneo and the Philippine archipelago, China has built military outposts on disputed islands and reefs that, according to Xi, "are Chinese territory since ancient times ... left to us by our ancestors." The network of bases, harbors and landing strips deep in international waters has created a buffer for China's southern coastline, further encircled Taiwan and challenged the Pentagon's ability to move ships into Asia.

"It appears that China is rapidly developing the capabilities to exclude other navies from the South China Sea," Bill Hayton, an author and associate fellow at the Chatham House think tank, told a congressional commission in September.

Read the whole thing.

Anyone who asserts China is a benign power is dangerously wrong. Its leadership will push and push and push because they know that no major power wants to go to war to fight for Vietnamese fishermen or the other hundreds of harassing events that occur daily in the South China Sea.

Like the fable of boiling frogs by turning up the heat incrementally, China's way is to slowly rachet thing up until they have reached their goal, each click of the rachet designed to not be enought too provoke war, but eventully gaining China's dominance in the region.

See also Oriana Skylar Mastro's Beijing’s line on the South China Sea: “Nothing to see here” about China's bold face lying:

China’s strategy in responding to concerns about its intentions in the South China Sea is to claim that none of the activities, statements or behaviours that concern other countries are actually happening.

China claims it has not militarised the South China Sea, but that the United States “is the real pusher of militarisation” in these waters. Its leaders often argue that China is a peace-loving country only interested in defending itself. As the China’s General Wei Fenghe stated at the Shangri-La Dialogue in 2018, “China has never provoked a war or conflict, nor has it ever invaded another country or taken an inch of land from others. In the future, no matter how strong it becomes, China shall never threaten anyone.”

China has similarly brushed off concerns of other claimants, such as Vietnam, about its intensifying military exercises in the South China Sea and largely ignored Australia’s assertion at the United Nations that China’s claims have no legal backing.

So apparently it is all one big misunderstanding.

The rest of the piece destroys that "misunderstanding" allegation quite thoroughly.

China's Government: The Bully Who Wants to Steal Your Lunch Money

China's government has Australia and other countries in it sights as it tries to bully them into stopping any criticism of China by cutting off their ability to export products to the Chinese market. In a remarkably brazen show of hypocrisy, as the Sydney Morning Herald reports, Xi says it's 'ill advised to hurt the interests of others' as Australia braces for $6 billion hit:

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has denied it is ratcheting up economic pressure to win diplomatic concessions. On Wednesday, a day after a verbal notice relayed by customs agents was delivered to traders telling them to stop importing Australian products, it said any restrictions on imports were a matter for individual companies.

Truth in China is a pretty flexible concept, but its bully boy actions speak louder than its lies.