Somali Pirates: A Dry Spell in the Sea Pirate Business

"For Somali pirates, July was a very bad month" from CSMonitor.com:

Since June 19, Somalia’s pirates have not successfully taken any vessel hostage, and since June 26, they have not even tried to carry out a hijack.

This marks the longest unbroken stretch of peaceful shipping off Somalia since piracy emerged as a major menace in 2007, and the drop has been attributed to a greater use of armed guards on ships, international naval patrols, and the bad weather.

Weather, the interdiction of pirate "mother ships" by naval forces and the presence of armed security forces on many merchant ships might just cause an alteration in the pirate's business model . . .

On the other hand, let's see what happens when the weather gets better.

Here's the weather guesser prediction of piracy risk based on wind and waves for the next few days from ONI's Piracy Analysis and Weekly Warning Report of 1 Aug 12 (pdf):

In this case, green is good for shipping and bad for the pirates.

UPDATE: More here.

Somali Pirates: NATO Look at Piracy in High Risk Area

As the Somali pirate operating area enters the SW Monsoon period, a nice chart from the NATO Shipping Center: Piracy statistics:

The statistics presented on this page are for information purposes only . . .

Click on image to enlarge

In short, expect a slow down for the next couple of months due to weather, armed guards and the "preventive" strikes on pirate "mother ships."

Somali Pirates and Other Piracy: The ONI Weekly Reports

Good stuff found from the Office of Naval Intelligence (pdfs).

First, a recapture of recent Somali pirate incidents:

Now, the weather-related prediction of good areas of operations for the small boat pirates (red is good for the pirates, bad for the merchant shipping world):

What the pirates are holding and for how long - one crew is going into their 3rd year of captivity:

And then, a brief summary of other piracy events:

Somali Pirates: Pirate Weather Coming

As indicated in the Office of Naval Intelligence's Piracy Analysis and Warning Weekly, the weather in the Somali pirate areas of major activity is beginning to shift to that more favorable to small boat operations (better for the pirates), so an increase in pirate efforts can be expected through the Gulf of Aden, upper Arabian Sea and the Mozambique Channel:

The redder the color, the increased probability that the weather and sea conditions are good for pirate operations.

Somali Pirates: The First Week's Work

So, in addition to being somewhat thwarted by the re-capture of pirated mother ships by U.S. and Danish units and releasing ships after collecting ransom, Somali pirates have been taking to sea in areas somewhat sheltered from the heavy winds and waves. NATO's Shipping Center kindly provides us with a map and a summary of pirate activity since the beginning of the year at NSC | All Alerts:

NSC 2/12 06/01/2012 14:15 12.43 43.8 Suspicious Activity NSC 2/12 - Suspicious activity A vessel has reported seeing suspicious activity in the vicinity of the Bab al Mandeb. 2 skiffs with 6 persons on board were seen acting suspiciously.
***This vessels is Safe***
*** The Pirate Attack Group is still in the region***
This is in the same area as Alert 001, Alert 002, and NSC 1/12.

Masters are advised to proceed with extreme caution while transiting this area.
***
ALERT 003/2012 05/01/2012 04:45 22.45 60.98 Attacked ALERT 003/2012 --WARNING WARNING WARNING--- Alert number 003 / 2012.
At 0446 UTC 04 JAN 2012 a merchant vessel was attack by 1 skiff with 6 POB in position 22 27 N 060 59 E.
**This vessel managed to evade hijack***
*** Vessel is SAFE***
The Pirate action group is still in the area.
***
Alert 002/2012 04/01/2012 08:20 12.28 44.16 Attacked Alert 002/2012
A piracy alert has been raised by the Maritime Security Centre.
Date of Alert: 04 Jan 2012
Location: [002] GULF OF ADEN 12 17 N 044 10 E
Latitude: 12 17 N
Longitude: 044 10 E
Alert Details:
---WARNING WARNING WARNING---
Alert number 002 / 2012.
At 0822 UTC a merchant vessel was reported under attack by a skiff in position 12 17 N 044 10 E.
***This vessel managed to evade hijack***

The Pirate Attack group is still in the area.
***
ALERT 001/2012 04/01/2012 04:20 13.16 49.2 Attacked Alert 001/2012
A piracy alert has been raised by the Maritime Security Centre.
Date of Alert: 04 Jan 2012 Location: [001] Gulf of Aden 13 10 N 049 12 E
Latitude: 13 10 N Longitude: 049 12 E
Alert Details:
--WARNING WARNING WARNING---
Alert number 001 / 2012.
At 0200 UTC a merchant vessel was attacked by 1 skiff in position 13 10 N 049 12 E.

**This vessel managed to evade hijack***
*** Vessel is SAFE***
The Pirate Attack group is still in the area.
***
NSC 001/12 04/01/2012 03:45 12.12 44.18 Approached WARNING - SUSPICIOUS APPROACHES There have been reports of 4 skiffs in the Gulf of Aden/ Bab al Mandeb region. This Pirate Attack Group has attacked 1 vessel, and approached 3 vessels.
Approaches occured:
0345Z in vicinity of 1205N 04423E
0753Z in vicinity of 12 14N 044 11E
0817Z in vicinity of 12 17N 044 10E
***These vessels are Safe***
*** The Pirate Attack Group is still in the region***

Masters are advised to proceed with extreme caution while transiting this area.

Small boats ops are easier when the weather is good and the WeatherOnline.co.uk maps show areas where small boat operations may be more likely, if the pirate mother ships can make it to the areas (red circles are my guesses - feel free to make your own):

Using weather forecasting to predict pirate operations

That's the topic of a paper presented at the American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting in Seattle on Monday by James Hansen, L. Esher, E. Regnier and W. Lingsch Abstract: Pirate probabilities: On the importance of the dynamic coupling of meteorological and intelligence information for piracy interdiction (91st American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting).

Or, as covered by a local news source, As 3,500 meteorologists meet, one man's forecast: Chance of pirates:

While his colleagues swapped probabilistic equations, James Hansen came to talk about pirates.

Hansen rolled out some math of his own Monday as he explained his work to estimate the likelihood of attacks off the Horn of Africa and other hot spots, using weather data and an understanding of pirate behavior.

"Usually, I'm doing theoretical stuff down in the weeds," said Hansen, a Seattle-area native and applied mathematician at the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey, Calif. "This is the only project where I can actually show pictures of the impact," he said, projecting images of Somali boatmen armed with missile-launchers and automatic weapons.

Though news coverage of pirate attacks has waned, the problem has worsened, Hansen said. Last year, there were nearly 450 attacks, with 53 ships captured and 1,181 crew members taken hostage. The estimated economic impact of the raids is $10 billion a year.

Even knowing the general location of pirate bases and their favored target areas, it's challenging for Navy and other patrol vessels to be in the right place at the right time, Hansen said.

"The Indian Ocean is really big."

The Navy will begin testing Hansen's model next month to see if it proves useful in helping direct patrol vessels and warn commercial ships when the risk of attack is high.

Thanks to Chris who alerted me to the Seattle Times article and to Sid, who sent on the AMS bit.

As regular readers will have noticed, wind and wave reports have been a part of the analysis done here, by NATO, by the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence and many others over the past few years of predicting (in rough terms) the potential for piracy activity off Somalia. If Mr. Hansen, et al have devised a better tool, perhaps a more directed prevention of piracy effort will follow.

UPDATE: An example of a weather driven piracy prediction from ONI's Piracy Analysis and Warning Weekly (PAWW) Report dated 20 Jan 2011 (click to enlarge):

Somali Pirates: Slowed by Weather, Ready to Attack

From the NATO Shipping Centre (NSC):

Gulf of Aden/Internationally Recommended Transit Corridor (IRTC). Locally heavier seas in the Gulf of Aden have probably been a factor in keeping down the number of pirating events reported in the IRTC over the past week, but with calmer seas now setting in, we can expect piracy to increase in this area over the coming weeks. On Thursday, 30 December, MV ELLY MAERSK reported a suspicious skiff operating in the central IRTC. The skiff was subsequently disrupted and is almost certainly pirate-related activity. There was no other significant activity to report this week in the Gulf of Aden/IRTC.

Arabian Sea/Greater Somali Basin. The weather in the rest of the Arabian Sea, as well as in both the northern and southern Somali Basin, remains favourable for small boat operations and hence pirate operations in areas not greatly affected by the Northeast (NE) Monsoon. The NE monsoon continues to keep sea states higher along the central, eastern coast of Somalia but has not greatly affected the deeper basin.

The number of pirated merchant and fishing vessels underway conducting piracy operations is assessed to be four mother ship pirate attack groups (or PAGs) underway in the Arabian Sea and greater Somalia Basin during the period. Specifically, a large number of hijacked merchant and fishing vessels are currently underway to conduct piracy operations.
***
This overall high level of piracy activity in the Arabian Sea and greater Somali Basin is expected to continue through next week. Pirates are obviously taking advantage of the more seaworthy ships to extend their range of operations out into regions less impacted by the NE Monsoon. We expect this trend to continue over the coming weeks, particularly during the holiday period through the New Year.

Those pirated vessels used a mother ships? Latest estimated positions:

Jin Chun Tsai 68 - 14°17N 057°46E is assessed as being used by pirates for piracy operations. 2307UTC 04JAN11

Vega 5 - 01°39S 046°48E is assessed as being used by pirates for piracy operations. 1100UTC 05JAN11

York - 04°00N 051°58E course 290° speed 6.5 kts as of 1354UTC 05JAN11 is assessed as being used by pirates for piracy operations.

Shiuh Fu No.1 - 13°05S 056°33E 1045UTC 30DEC10 possibly heading back to the anchorage off Somalia. No current update.

Looking ahead for weather conditions suitable for small boat operations like those conducted by the Somali pirates Saturday's weather as projected Weatheronline.co.uk, looks like a day to be ready for pirate attacks (click on map to enlarge):

Finally, the NATO Alerts map - based on previous attack/incidents:

Can you guess where the key shipping lanes might be from this map?

Somali Pirates: Higher Winds = Fewer Attacks

Offshore Somalia is experiencing higher winds this week:




Pirate attacks are down.

Unless, of course, you are a Swiss flagged ship:

It’s been confirmed that, for the first time, a Swiss ship has been attacked by pirates in the Arabian Sea.

Government officials say the ship, the Turicum, came under attack from three smaller vessels last Wednesday.

The assault lasted for seven-hours.

The 190-metre ship was just under five nautical miles outside the zone protected by the European Union. The ship’s owner, commercial ship management company Reederei Zurich, says the waters where it happened are normally considered a low-risk.

The ship’s captain fought off the pirates, keeping them at a distance of about 13 kilometers and preventing them from forcibly boarding. No-one was injured.

Emphasis added. I'm sure 13 km is a typo. Since that's about 8 miles. A distance from which a Somali pirate attack might be hard to detect.

The powerful Swiss Navy will be sailing shortly to defend the rights of free passage in international waters.

Photo of MV Turicum by Tomas Pinas from Shipspotting,com and used in accord with that site's terms.

Click on images to enlarge.

Somali Pirate Activity: Winds and Waves

Pirate activity is picking up off Somalia and some part of that, as noted here before, is due to a decrease in winds and waves in the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, making small boat operations more feasible

From here, wave information:



And winds for the pirate likely areas:







Wind information from Weathteronline.co.uk

Somali Pirates: Pirate Weather

Wind charts for offshore Somalia from WeatherOnline. Looks like lighter winds in the Gulf of Aden and a slackening of winds of eastern Somalia.

Look for an increase in pirate attacks in coming days as monsoon winds end.

Somali Pirates: Expect more attacks as weather improves

As mentioned before, as monsoon winds die down off Somalia, expect an increase in pirate attacks in the Gulf of Aden and off eastern Somalia - or, as noted here;

The calm August seas last year led to a series of hijackings -- including that of a behemoth Saudi oil tanker -- that spread fears of major disruptions to world shipping and spurred foreign naval powers into sending warships.

"The weather conditions have been the main reason" for the recent dip in attacks, Hans Tino Hansen, managing director of Denmark-based Risk Intelligence, told AFP.

"Another reason but of less importance is the success of the naval forces in repelling the few attacks that have been conducted in the Gulf of Aden," he added.

The pirates themselves had the bit between their teeth, with sea conditions already more propicious to boarding their prey from small skiffs in the Gulf of Aden and storms starting to recede in the Indian Ocean.

"We are definitely set on capturing more ships and gaining more cash. I only made 9,000 dollars last year and I was banking on more," Ahmed Mohamed Abdi, a pirate from the central town of Harardhere, told AFP.

"Foreign countries are still fishing illegally and no-one is blaming them, but when we try to recover something for the losses in marine wealth, we are accused of being bad boys," he lamented.

Well, Ahmed, there are those shooting at ships that have nothing to do with fishing while they are in international waters and holding hostages things that hurt your image. You know, by making you a pirate, instead of a coast guard.

Somali Pirates: Navy Warning to Merchants - Watch Out When the Monsoon Wind Stops

Just in case there is a slow group of mariners out there off the coast of Somalia, Combined Maritime Forces offers up a thought "Watch Out When the Monsoon Wind Stops":

MANAMA, Bahrain – The Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) are warning mariners of an anticipated increase in piracy incidents when the southwest monsoon ends in the coming weeks, and are reiterating that merchant mariners must continue to take proactive action to help prevent piracy attacks.

High sea states over the past few weeks in the Somali Basin have resulted in fewer attacks on vessels transiting the area but mariners must continue to remain vigilant.

“The prior preparation and vigilance of merchant mariners at all times of day and night is more important now than ever,” said Turkish Rear Adm. Caner Bener, Commander, Combined Task Force (CTF) 151. “CTF 151 and other multi-national maritime forces deployed to the region are successfully coordinating counter-piracy efforts. While our ability to deter and disrupt attacks has improved over time, we are constantly adapting the way we do our business as the pirates adapt and modify their tactics.”

Using the Internationally Recognized Transit Corridor in the Gulf of Aden, reporting to the UKMTO and the EU’s Maritime Security Center before transits, keeping a constant lookout, and embarking security teams are all recommended actions that will help reduce the risk of a successful attack.

Naval forces from CTF 151, the European Union, NATO and a number of other international nations continue to coordinate their activities in an international effort to deter piracy and reassure the maritime community that every effort is being made to ensure the safe and lawful passage of maritime traffic throughout the region.

However, while more than 30 ships and aircraft from 16 nations continue to patrol the waters off the Somali coast, the closest military ship or aircraft may not be close enough to render assistance to a vessel under attack.

Bener recently met with task force commanders from NATO and the European Union to discuss Coalition counterpiracy operations off the coast of Somalia. The task force commanders meeting was held at sea and focused on new strategies and future plans were development to more effectively and efficiently track down suspected pirates and to protect sea lines of communication.

“In this environment, the importance of merchant mariners as first line defenders against pirates is absolutely vital,” said Commodore Tim Lowe, Deputy Commander, Combined Maritime Forces. “The crews of those merchant vessels that have employed evasive maneuvering and other defensive measures to protect their ships and their cargoes have proven to be more successful at evading attack.”

Analysis continues to show that vessels travelling at slow speeds with low freeboard, failing to employ adequate lookouts particularly during periods of heightened risk, are ships that continue to be pirated off the Somali coast.

International naval forces will continue to patrol the waters off the Somali Coast in an effort to deter, disrupt, and interdict pirates and help ensure lawful maritime order.

Hey, let's be careful out there!

Somali Pirates: Monsoon Attacks

Conventional wisdom is that the Somali pirates don't attack often during monsoon season. However, as the recent capture of a Turkish ship indicates, there are exceptions. But the question that must be answered is "Why now?" - and the answer is with the winds. Look at the winds under the "red smear" I put on the wind chart above - the winds are about 10 knots - a range in which the Somali pirates operate - and the lowered winds are smack dab on the "secure" transit lane.

In short, weather - even during monsoon season - is sometimes favorable for pirates in small boats, and now is such a time. Ships transiting the area should keep alert.