I don't usually talk politics here, but sometimes . . .

Just spent a week way up in the Virginia mountains, in a place where we get no cell phone coverage, no radio, no television, no cable, no 24 hour talking heads. Just us, about 400 acres and stream, some cows, deer, birds, and when the night sky clears of clouds, amazing star gazing. On a moonless night with no light pollution,  the Milky Way is stunning.

For some reason, while on this short vacation, I decided it was time to re-read Atlas Shrugged. While the book is a hot mess in so

many ways (especially Ms. Rand's ideas on - uh- romance), I found sufficient parallels to current events to keep plugging away even through those things that a novel published in 1957 could not possibly get right about these modern times. But more often than I thought possible, the book nails aspects of these days.

Much of the novel deals with the issues of logistics and what the failure/disruption/mismanagement of logistics systems (in her case centering on railroads) would do to the country as a whole. Many of us who have toiled in logistics appreciate the concerns. Those of us who have experienced the logistical issues wrought by COVID-19 may have a clearer grasp on how tenuous a system it is, and how efficiently it has worked for us in recent years.

I am not alone in both criticizing this book, but noting the current relevance of some of its parts. I commend to your reading this piece from the Wall Street Journal, 'Atlas Shrugged': From Fiction to Fact in 52 Years by Stephan Moore.

Many of us who know Rand's work have noticed that with each passing week, and with each successive bailout plan and economic-stimulus scheme out of Washington, our current politicians are committing the very acts of economic lunacy that "Atlas Shrugged" parodied in 1957, when this 1,000-page novel was first published and became an instant hit.
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For the uninitiated, the moral of the story is simply this: Politicians invariably respond to crises -- that in most cases they themselves created -- by spawning new government programs, laws and regulations. These, in turn, generate more havoc and poverty, which inspires the politicians to create more programs . . . and the downward spiral repeats itself until the productive sectors of the economy collapse under the collective weight of taxes and other burdens imposed in the name of fairness, equality and do-goodism.
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The current economic strategy is right out of "Atlas Shrugged" {note: Mr. Moore wrote this during the early days of President Obama's administration} The more incompetent you are in business, the more handouts the politicians will bestow on you. That's the justification for the $2 trillion of subsidies doled out already to keep afloat distressed insurance companies, banks, Wall Street investment houses, and auto companies -- while standing next in line for their share of the booty are real-estate developers, the steel industry, chemical companies, airlines, ethanol producers, construction firms and even catfish farmers. With each successive bailout to "calm the markets," another trillion of national wealth is subsequently lost. Yet, as "Atlas" grimly foretold, we now treat the incompetent who wreck their companies as victims, while those resourceful business owners who manage to make a profit are portrayed as recipients of illegitimate "windfalls."

Ah, "windfall profit taxes" are familiar to those of us who toiled in the oil business.

From 1980 to 1988, the WPT may have reduced domestic oil production anywhere from 1.2% to 8.0% (320 to 1,269 million barrels). Dependence on imported oil grew from between 3% and 13%. The tax was repealed in 1988 because (1) it was an administrative burden to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), (2) it was a compliance burden to the oil industry, (3) due to low oil prices, the tax was generating little or no revenues in 1987 and 1988, and (4) it made the United States more dependent on foreign oil. The depressed state of the U.S. oil industry after 1986 also contributed to the repeal decision.

Get that? The attempt to rake in more taxes actually lowered productivity and decreased revenue. But it sure sounded good politically, and is back today. It's still nonsense.

I would note the efforts of the governors of California and New York and the mayor of New York City to somehow believe that people won't flee from higher taxes and worsening living conditions to sites of lower taxes and better conditions are a case of incredibly "magical thinking" on their parts. NYC's socialist mayor being the most magical thinker of them all for believing that people who leave his crowded overtaxed city for the suburbs will return because NYC is such a magical place. Rational humans make rational choices, and the rational ones are voting with their feet, Mr. Mayor, so you better figure out how to govern without their taxes and without the corporations that will desert your "worker's paradise" for less restrictive and less expensive venues.

"Magical thinking"is also present when the political correctness movement sees "free speech" as akin to a "one way street" - you are free to speak your mind so long as what you say agrees with them, otherwise you are "evil." It's "magic" that if we all say the same thing - whether true or not - then peace and love will break out. Ms. Rand knew better and so do you and I.

"Economic lunacy" will never disappear, especially when our more vocal "socialist" and "Marxist" politicians can proclaim nonsense without widely reported assessments of exactly how "looney" their idiotic ideas are and why they are so destructive of a free society that is driven by a market economy.

Read the book, mull over the real lessons (e.g. most politicians are in it for the power, not the benefit of all mankind. That power includes doing "favors" for their supporters as Ms. Rand sets out in the book. How do you fight the "looters" and "moochers?" By not accepting their terms, by not accepting undeserved guilt designed to force you to grant their power grabs.

Tuesday Reading: Drug Submarines and Other Things Indicating We Live in a Very Dangerous World

Suggestions to while away your day or week.

First, an interesting piece in a long pdf form about Narco-Submarines Specially Fabricated Vessels Used For Drug Smuggling Purposes (hat tip: Small Wars Journal). From the intro by Admiral James Stavrides, USN(ret):

Just over 20 years ago, narco-submarines emerged as an alternative method of transporting narcotics. This study is important and relevant to the present challenges faced by law enforcement authorities and militaries as it specifically focuses on these specially fabricated vessels that have been used for drug smuggling purposes.

Second, an article from the Thomas Joscelyn at the Long War Journal that reflects on the mess that Libya has become Ansar al Sharia photos focus on governance efforts near Benghazi:

The propaganda photos were posted on a Twitter feed maintained by Ansar al Sharia's media arm, Al Raya Media. That feed was subsequently suspended by Twitter.

The group has been locked in a fierce battle with forces loyal to General Khalifa Haftar since last year. Ansar al Sharia Libya leads the Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council (BRSC), an alliance of jihadist groups seeking to control Benghazi.
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The photos are undoubtedly intended to project power and influence in and around Benghazi at a time when the group is battling for control of the city and its suburbs. General Haftar's forces similarly claim to control most of Benghazi and the surrounding neighborhoods. According to multiple reports, the city of Benghazi has suffered extensive damage during the fighting between the jihadists and Haftar's men.

A flag commonly associated with the Islamic State, which claims to rule as a caliphate over parts of Iraq and Syria, can be seen in photos of a building under the group's control. A number of Ansar al Sharia vehicles are shown flying the same flag. However, this does not mean that the group has sworn allegiance to the Islamic State. The same images show a black banner typically associated with the Al Nusrah Front, an official branch of al Qaeda in Syria, and al Qaeda in the lower right hand corner. The same type of flag was adopted by a number of organizations prior to the rivalry between the Islamic State and al Qaeda. In addition, a number of groups loyal to al Qaeda have used the same type of banner. Still, there are rumors on social media that some Ansar al Sharia's followers have defected to the Islamic State.

You need a scorecard to keep track of the rival jihadist groups who are intent on seizing power, not only in Libya, but in much of the Middle East and parts of Africa.

Third, an article from the Economist giving a view of what Russia's Putin in up to in one of the into which he has stuck a finger, Understanding Putin’s plans: The Russian president is stepping up both the war in Ukraine and his confrontational rhetoric against NATO and the West:

This ratcheting up of anti-Western rhetoric is in part a response to a deteriorating economy. Indeed, Mr Putin upgraded the war into a Russia-NATO conflict just as Standard and Poor’s, a rating agency, was downgrading Russia’s credit rating to junk. The fall in oil prices and continued pressure on the rouble is driving up prices, causing much grumbling among ordinary Russians. While the government is carefully avoiding the word crisis, it has started to talk of anti-crisis measures.

Ah, power politics.

Fourth, Russia again, along with Castro's Cuba and the latest Kim-in-Charge's North Korea, as Newsweek reports Russia Plans Joint Military Drills With North Korea and Cuba:

Gerasimov [chief of staff of the Russian armed forces] announced: “We are planning an expansion of the communication lines of our military central command. We are entering preliminary negotiations with the armed forces of Brazil, Vietnam, Cuba and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.”

“We are going to conduct a series of joint naval and air force exercises, as well as joint drills of our ground troops and air assault troops,” the military official added.

In other words, just more tweaking of the West.

Fifth, the not unexpected result of China's attempt to bully itself into dominance of the South China Sea reported by Mike Mazza in the National Interest Made in China: A Vietnam-Philippines Axis :

Vietnam and the Philippines, which have long-standing territorial disputes in the South China Sea, are forming a strategic partnership. Worried over the rise of China and, in particular, Beijing’s increasingly belligerent actions in pursuit of its own territorial claims, Hanoi and Manila are banding together.

May seem like mice making an alliance to bell the cat, but . . .

Finally, two pieces on the fun and frolicking in Saudi Saudi King Salman's Audacious Power Play:

Arabia as a new king takes over and where is hot button items are

By recommitting to these classic features of Saudi policy, King Salman is not providing much material to those who would like to portray him as a moderate and a reformer. Rather, he is reinvesting in the same unsustainable strategies that have set the kingdom up for greater instability down the road.

So let’s meet Salman’s new regime. Just like the old Saudi regime, only worse.

and The Houthis Test King Salman: The Turmoil in Yemen Puts Saudi Arabia in a Tight Spot:

For the Saudis, the change of power within Yemen may weaken the leverage they once had with Sanaa and signals the growth of an even larger threat: Iran.

I know there's a lot more but these caught my attention this morning.

Cheers!

Monday Reading

It's one thing to ask men and women who serve our country to place themselves in harm's way because of a threat to the people of the United States or our allies. It's quite another to put them in harm's way because of . . . apparent indifference to the harms they face just trying to do their jobs. The Navy blogger at "Ask a Skipper" points to just such a story at "Not Every Fairy Tale has a Happy Ending". Reporter Mike Hixenbaugh of the Virginian Pilot deserves a salute for his reporting. There's a reason we replace old tools.

It's hard enough to figure out what weapons owned by a potential opponent are truly worrisome without ascribing capabilities to them that appear to make the opponent 10 feet tall. So it is interesting to read this article from The National Interest, "No, China Can NOT Shoot Down 90% of Hypersonic Missiles" in which Zachary Keck examines the hype present in the the headlines:

Far more importantly, however, by these reports own admission, the Type 1130 CIWS can’t shoot down hypersonic missiles. As noted above, these reports claim that the Type 1130 CIWS can target missiles traveling at up to four times the speed of sound, or Mach 4. As impressive as these reports make Mach 4 out to be, it doesn’t reach hypersonic levels. To constitute hypersonic, the missile must travel at five times the speed of sound (Mach 5) or greater. ***

There are other smaller issues with the claims as well. For example, no country currently deploys hypersonic missiles, raising the question of how the Type 1130 achieved its 90 percent success rate in shooting them down.

Well, except for the facts, the original reports were accurate. It should be noted that hypersonic missiles are being developed, such as the joint Russian-Indian BrahMos II, the Indian Shaurya, and the Chinese "hypersonic glider". About the last, Bill Sweetman at Aviation Week writes:

In the view of the U.S. Navy, the Mach 10 test of a hypersonic glide vehicle that China conducted on Jan. 9 reflects its predictions of future warfare. If and when China can put the technology into service, Beijing will have a weapon that challenges defenses and extends the range of its ballistic missiles against land and sea targets, but its offensive application is still some years away and depends on solving tough challenges in targeting and guidance.

As you might have guessed, the U.S. is also playing with the hypersonic missile world.

Will cities become the most trouble areas of our future? Robert Muggah has an article on the Foreign Affairs website discussing that issue,
Fixing Fragile Cities: Solutions for Urban Violence and Poverty:

The direction of urban population growth is shifting dramatically, as Africans and Asians, not Americans or Europeans, flock to cities in unprecedented numbers. According to the latest UN estimates, more than 90 percent of all future population growth will occur in the cities and sprawling shantytowns of the developing world.
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As large cities thrive—just 600 of them now account for two-thirds of global GDP—countless smaller and medium-sized cities fall behind. Widening this gap are so-called fragile cities: places where the social contract binding municipal governments to their citizens has crumbled and anarchy rules.

With some exceptions, these centers of fragility are located in North, Central, and South America, which are home to a staggering 45 of the 50 most dangerous metropolises....

Rapid growth and a younger population appear to be key factors in city instability, which have also been noted as issues in national instability. Karachi, Pakistan is cited as a prime case. You may not agree with some of the proffered solutions (e.g. "City planners and private investors must avoid the temptation to reproduce segregation and social exclusion, and they must insist that the public good prevails over private interests.") but they are worth contemplating.

Finally, a revisiting of the "war on drugs" - this time the impact the illicit drug trade is having in Africa, from The Economist, The Smack Track
East African states are being undermined by heroin smuggling pointing out that the clamp down on drug smuggling from Afghanistan by a land route into Europe has caused the smugglers to turn to other routes:

Instead smugglers have taken to the seas. Shipments of heroin are unloaded from dhows and cargo ships off the shores of Kenya and Tanzania, and taken ashore on small speedboats. They are then broken up into still smaller packages before being “muled” to Europe from international airports in Kenya and Ethiopia. Sometimes they are consolidated and sent by lorry to South Africa for onward shipping. Some of the heroin enters the African market to feed nascent demand, particularly in Zanzibar, Mombasa and Dar es Salaam, where heroin use is slowly rising. Heroin is also smuggled to consumers in South Africa and Nigeria.

In Kenya and Tanzania criminal gangs with close ties to political and security elites control the trans-shipment. The risk is that state institutions will be hollowed out or, worse still, that states could be captured by transnational criminal networks. A 2011 research paper by the International Peace Institute, a think-tank in New York, said the foundations of the Kenyan state were “under attack” from such gangs.

Can drug cartels cause states to fail? That's a good question, isn't it?

Somali Piracy: Excellent Background Read

If you are looking for an excellent background read on the rise of the Somali pirates and their importance to the global economy, I highly recommend Martin Murphy's 2011 book Somalia: The New Barbary?: Piracy and Islam in the Horn of Africa.

As the blurb at Amazon says,

Martin Murphy, author of the definitive guide to modern maritime piracy and terrorism, employs his critically-acclaimed approach to review the history, motivation, organization, criminal methods, and operational tactics of Somali piracy, from its initial manifestation in the early-1990s to today. He links their activities and fortunes to the rise and fall of Somalia's political groups; explains how and why violent Islamists operate within Somalia; and outlines the extent to which they may exploit maritime dimensions in the future. He concludes with a consideration of the various political and military solutions being used to meet these challenges and whether they will resolve them effectively.

Obviously, this is not a new book and so the impact of armed security teams on merchant ships transiting the Somali pirate range is not covered. However, the analysis of the impact (or lack thereof) of naval forces is spot on and the warnings of future failed states near sea lines of communication should be given attention. Or, in his words:

Somali piracy represents the most significant challenge to maritime security since the end of World War II; or, perhaps more precisely,  the most substantial threat to the freedom of maritime trading nations to conduct their lawful pursuits peacefully.

He notes that the rise of Somali pirates has revealed something interesting - "the world is poised on the verge of a new global maritime order."

His discussion of the US Maritime Services "A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower" continues that thought with a look at that strategy on the Chinese:

Their reaction spurs the thought that China is aware of how much it lost over the centuries by not remaining a maritime and trading nation, while American no longer realizes how much it owes to both.

I agree, and his analysis is very much worth the read.