On Midrats 28 August 2016 - Epsiode 347: Baltic Security with Bruce Acker and Dan Lynch

Please join us at 5pm (EDT) for Midrats Episode 347: Baltic Security with Bruce Acker and Dan Lynch

With a resurgent Russia, the security environment from former Soviet Republics to the traditionally neutral nations of Finland and Sweden has changed dramatically.

What are those changes and how are they changing how these nations see their place in the larger Western security infrastructure? We’re going to look at how thing are changing in how they work and see each other, NATO, and what they need to do to provide for both their and collective defense.

Our guests for the full hour will be Colonel Bruce Acker, USAF (ret) and Captain Dan Lynch, USN (Ret).

Bruce is currently a Defense Strategy Consultant in Stockholm Sweden. He spent 30 years on active duty starting as a Air Defense Weapons flight test engineer upon graduation from the Air Force Academy, and subsequently served in Space, Missile Warning, and Missile Launch operations culminating as a Minuteman ICBM squadron Commander. Following staff tours managing future Air Force and Defense Space systems programs, he broadened to political military assignments as the US Air Attaché to Malaysia and as the US Defense Attaché and Senior Defense Official in Stockholm. Col Acker has published articles on regional security issues in the Swedish Royal Academy of War Sciences journal as well as leading National daily newspapers.

Dan is currently beginning his fifth year on the maritime faculty of the Swedish Defense University in Stockholm. He spent over 35 years on active duty starting as an enlisted Marine and upon graduation from the Naval Academy selected Naval Aviation where he commanded a VP squadron and a patrol and reconnaissance wing. Following major command, he served on the staff of the US ambassador to NATO in Brussels and retired after his last tour as the Naval Attache to Stockholm.

Due to the location of our guests, the show was recorded earlier today. Listen to the show to at 5pm or pick it up later by clicking here. You can also get the show later from our iTunes page or from our Stitcher page.

Hear the rattle, fear the bite

I always thought rattlesnakes were a North American thing, but perhaps an analogy can be drawn to the Swedish situation vis-a-vis
Russsia, as set out in thsi Aviation Week headline, Russian Aggression Driving Swedish Gripen, Sub Investments:

Sweden’s investment in new Gripen fighters and diesel-electric submarines is being driven forward by increased Russian aggression in the Baltics, the country’s defense minister says.
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“We have seen a lot of investments in their [Russian] armed forces, and we have also seen that they are ready to use these capabilities to fulfill their political goals,” Hultqvist told reporters May 17.

“There are more in exercises and intelligence activities on our neighbors. We and the Baltic States feel a level of tension toward Russia.”
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...n addition, it will clear the way for the creation of a battle group on the Baltic island of Gotland, with mechanized and armored units. It will be formed in 2018.

“We think it is necessary to have this level of capability for the situation we now have,” Hultqvist says.

Hmmm.

‘The Arctic Sea’ seizure explained

Remember the mysterious adventure of the timber ship Arctic Sea, allegedly nabbed by pirates in the Baltic Sea and recaptured off Africa (if not, here's a link to previous posts on the topic)?

Now we have a report of what may have prompted the whole adventure here:

The seizure of the Russian-owned Arctic Sea timber carrier was ordered by an Estonian construction and oil services contractor. He hoped to bolster his failing business Somali-style, by extorting a ransom.

You know, that makes more sense then the rumors that the ship carrying a secret cargo of missiles, space aliens or whatever....

Sweden - Baltic Sea: Ferries trapped in ice

Ferries trapped in ice : Swedish Coast Guard:

At lunchtime today (Thursday 4 Mar 10) the ferry Birger Jarl was trapped in the ice, 0.3 nautical miles or about 550 meters from Tjarven. The vessel then drifted southward with the ice nearer Tjarven and ground around it.

Shortly after, also ferry Sea Wind was trapped in the ice, but no danger to the ship was not. Sea Wind is still in the area.

Coast guard aviation has this afternoon flown over the area with the two ferries. The evacuation of Birger Jarl, which was prepared by the MRCC was not needed to be implemented. Birger Jarl assisted now by the icebreaker Vidar Viking and towed into safer waters from the fairway to Stockholm.

During the late afternoon also ship Viking Rosella stuck in the ice in the same area.

Six ferries stuck in ice:(Friday 5 Mar 10)

The six ferries Via Mare, Sea Wind, Amorella, Isabella, Finnfellow and Regal Star has been stuck in ice off Kapellskar and runs against the basic fields Tjarven.

The ferries are assisted by tugs / icebreakers Tor Viking and Vidar Viking to get away from the ice and assistance toward safer waters. MRCC has launched a search and rescue, but an evacuation of the vessels are not current at the moment.

Coastguard vessel KBV 010 is heading for the area.

Happy ending here:

Four ferries carrying about 1,000 passengers have been freed from heavy ice off the coast of Sweden and were back in port Friday, said the Maritime Search and Rescue Center.

Arctic winds hampered icebreakers' efforts to free the ferries and at least 30 other ships from the icy grip of the Baltic Sea on Thursday, according to Birger Knutsson, a spokesman for the maritime center, in Gothenburg, Sweden.

The area with the worst ice was bounded by mainland Sweden, the Stockholm archipelago and the Finnish island of Aland, according to the Swedish Maritime Administration.

"It has been a lot colder than normal in the southern parts of the Baltic Sea. But in the north, all is normal, with normal levels of ice," said Tommy Gardebring with the maritime group.

"However, in the worst-affected areas, the icebreakers that normally operate haven't been able to cope with the ice.

I'm sure a good time was had by all.

More Piracy Off Europe? I don't think so

Business Week asks the question: "Piracy in Northern Seas: A New Trend?", based on the misadventures of the MV Arctic Sea:

A mysterious hijacking in the Baltic Sea has European authorities concerned about the spread of piracy into the Northern Hemisphere

I don't think European authorities should be losing much sleep over concerns that the Baltic or North Atlantic or even the Mediterranean are about to become like the waters off Somalia.

Somalia offers pirates a situation non-existent in northern waters- a failed state right on a couple of major sea lanes. Upon grabbing a ship, the pirates, under threat of executing the ship's crew, can run for the safety of Somali waters where they have support from shore bases.

European waters, by contrast, abound with traffic control lanes, positive ship check in points, coast guards, police and effective military forces. There are no safe haven areas for a captured ship to be taken while ransom negotiations are worked through.

Indeed, one of the unanswered questions concerning Arctic Sea's alleged hijackers has to do with where, exactly, were they headed? Arriving off the coast of Africa doesn't mean safety - most African states are not the uncivilized jumble of Somalia - there are coast guards and military forces to contend with.

Perhaps a well oiled criminal enterprise could "sneak" ships into some West African port, but ... it would be very hard. In his post on Phantom Ships, Daniel Sekulich, author of Terror on the Seas offers up the saga of a 1999 "mystery ship" wandering from Russia through the Med, off Africa and, finally, to India- where the tale did not end well for the hijackers. Daniel's tale points out that the marine community was on the trail of the ship as soon as it became apparent something was amiss.

There are many factors that would militate against there being a "trend" in piracy off Europe. Of greater concern to the maritime security world is what appeared to be the ability of the ship to slip off the grid - which, as discussed here might have some serious national security ramifications.

It is, perhaps, some comfort to hear from some authorities that they had a bead on Arctic Sea all the time (see here) - which eases the security issues a little.

But a trend in Euro piracy? Based on a one-off event?

I don't think so.

Russian Fleet Pursuing Leads in Ship Disappearance

Following up on earlier posts concerning the disappearance of a Maltese-flagged/Finnish-owned/Russian-manned timber ship (see here, here and here), a chunk of the Russian Navy has been pressed into service to locate the missing vessel Arctic Sea, as set out here:

Admiral Vladimir Vysotsky, Commander-in-Chief of the Russian navy, told the state news agency Itar-Tass: “Under the orders of President Dmitry Medvedev all Russian naval ships in the Atlantic have been sent to join the search for the Arctic Sea.”

Russia’s radar systems and satellites are also also searching for the ship amid unconfirmed reports that it was heading towards Africa.

A Defence Ministry spokesman told the RIA Novosti agency: “The main task lies with the patrol combatant vessel Ladnyy of the Black Sea Fleet, which passed through the Strait of Gibraltar on 12 August and is following the set course.”

The large amphibious warships Azov, Yamal and Novocherkassk were also reported to have entered the Atlantic through the Strait of Gibraltar, suggesting that ships on a pre-arranged military exercise have now received a signal from Moscow to join the hunt for the Arctic Sea.

I'm a little unclear about the section referring to "Russia's radar systems" which does not seem to be referring to shipboard radar.

UPDATE: No time to fully explore, but here's an intriguing report:

A Spanish port authority has officially denied claims by Russia’s state-owned news agency RIA Novosti that missing Russian general cargoship Arctic Sea has turned up at one of the ports for which it is responsible.

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UPDATE2: Fairplay reports Russian questions for ship operator:

THE FINNISH company on record as owning the missing Arctic Sea said its officials have been interrogated by Russian security investigators, Fairplay was told today.

Nikolay Karpenkov, managing director of Solchart Arkhangelsk, said he answered questions from “the special organs who demanded this information from me”.
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The article also notes that, given the ship's fuel capacity, the ship had better be near its destination or the tank may run dry.

Many have suggested that destination is somewhere along the African west coast.

UPDATE3: Daniel Sekulich on "phantom ships".

Pirates of the Baltic and a Missing Ship

Interesting, if cryptic, tale of an apparently missing ship Russian Navy Joins Search for Freighter Attacked by Pirates:

Russia’s navy and Federal Security Service, the primary successor to the Soviet-era KGB, are searching for a Finnish ship with a Russian crew that disappeared in the Atlantic Ocean en route to Algeria.

Radio contact with the freighter Arctic Sea was lost on July 28, according to a statement posted on the navy’s Web site today. The ship, which sails under the Maltese flag, had 13 to 15 crewmembers on board, the navy said.

The Arctic Sea, operated by Oy Solchart Management AB, was scheduled to arrive in Bejaia, Algeria on Aug. 4, the Sovfracht maritime news Web site reported yesterday. The ship, built in 1991, has 4,706 deadweight tons capacity, the navy said.

Report of alleged Baltic pirate attack here.

And an earlier report of this ship going missing off Portugal here from reader 1657 from Galloping Ghost who also has a report at "Baltic Pirates? Anyone?"

Very curious.

I wonder who has the insurance coverage?

UPDATE: Healthy but not extreme winds off Portugal:


UPDATE2: I think I got all the kinks out of the links.

Pirates in the Baltic Sea?

A strange sea tale out of Sweden - a ship hijacking in the Baltic Sea reported here:

A ship was hijacked in Swedish waters early Friday morning last week, news wire TT reports. The boat was sailing between the islands of Öland and Gotland when the hijacking occurred.

Arriving in a boat with "police" painted on the side, a group of masked men searched the Malta-registered timber boat after tying up the crew, which was Russian.

The Swedish police only got word of the hijacking when the Russian Foreign Ministry called the Swedish police to ask why they acted in that fashion. But the Swedish police had never boarded the boat.

Ingemar Isaksson, who is heading the police investigation, said on Thursday that the hijackers spent more than 12 hours on the ship. Though it’s not completely clear what the English-speaking hijackers were after, the police suspect they were looking for drugs.

“This is the first time that I’ve heard about something like this happening in Swedish waters,” Ingemar Isaksson told TT.

Swedish police started investigating the case on Wednesday, but they have still haven’t come into contact with the ship, which apparently continued its normal route after the attack.

Other reports here, here and more details from here:

The attackers, who spoke English, tied the members of the crew of the Arctic Sea and beat them. They also searched the vessel thoroughly before leaving the ship at about noon on the same day.

Swedish police investigating the case are at a loss to come up with a motive for the attack, or who may have been responsible. Suspicions were raised by the fact that that the act of piracy was not reported until several days after the alleged events took place.
The head of the investigation, Ingemar Isaksson of the Swedish police believes that a hijacking did indeed occur, and that the shipping line and the crew were reluctant to approach Swedish authorities, because the pirates claimed to be police officers looking for drugs. Swedish authorities say that there is no suspicion that the ship would be carrying illegal substances.

UPDATE: It should be noted that NATO and EU member navies, as well as Russian naval forces, already patrol the Baltic Sea ... just like they patrol the waters off Somalia ...