A Reset of the "Cold War?"

Watching CNN this morning (and was there ever a more confusing mess of news than that at CNN?) and Professor Stephen Cohen was on, warning of the dangers of the new world order left in the wake of the out-going administration and the bow wake of the arrival of the current administration. As I understood the Prof, we're on the brink of a crisis on par with the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 and things are serious indeed.

This is not a drum that Dr. Cohen just started beating, either, as can be seen in this CNN interview from back in December 2016:



It should be noted that Dr. Cohen is a contributor to The Nation and has a book out on Russian-U.S. relations, Why Cold War Again?: How America Lost Post-Soviet Russia :

The new East-West conflict, which broke out over the Ukrainian crisis

in 2014, but which long predated it and soon spread through Europe and to the Middle East, is potentially the worst US-Russian confrontation in more than fifty years― and the most fateful. A negotiated resolution is possible, but time may be running out. In this book, renowned Russia scholar and media commentator Stephen F. Cohen traces the history of this East-West relationship in the 'Inter Cold War' period― the years from the purported end of the preceding Cold War, in 1990-1991, to what he has long argued would be a new and even more dangerous Cold War.

Which is pretty much what he said this morning.

Sec State Tillerson is visiting Russia. I hope plain speaking and an understanding of Putin's remarkably weak position helps defuse this mess.

Finger pointing on the Syria debacle seems to be a thing on right and left. See Syria Will Stain Obama’s Legacy Forever from Foreign Policy and Obama’s Disastrous Syria Policy from National Review.

Can the genie be put back in the bottle? I don't know, Russia seems to have only a couple of friends in the world, and Assad of Syria appears to be one of them. AND there is that warm water port.

Iran has hopped on the anti-U.S. band wagon (with "red line warnings"), which was a short hop indeed, given their view of the Great Satan. If I were they, I'd be more worried about the regime to their north, but that might just be me.

In any event, I am less concerned about a "cold" war than a "hot" one stumbled into like WWI, the results of which, by the way, still haunt the Middle East. See A century on: Why Arabs resent Sykes-Picot:

The borders of the Middle East were drawn during World War I by a

Briton, Mark Sykes, and a Frenchman, Francois Picot.

The two diplomats' pencils divided the map of one of the most volatile regions in the world into states that cut through ethnic and religious communities.

Later dubbed the Sykes-Picot treaty, the secret agreement was signed by Paris and London on May 16, 1916, to become the basis on which the Levant region was shaped for years to come.

A century on, the Middle East continues to bear the consequences of the treaty, and many Arabs across the region continue to blame the subsequent violence in the Middle East, from the occupation of Palestine to the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), on the Sykes-Picot treaty.

Also here.

Of course, there is also Ukraine, Crimea and the threat to the Baltic NATO countries.

May we live in interesting times.

On Midrats 28 August 2016 - Epsiode 347: Baltic Security with Bruce Acker and Dan Lynch

Please join us at 5pm (EDT) for Midrats Episode 347: Baltic Security with Bruce Acker and Dan Lynch

With a resurgent Russia, the security environment from former Soviet Republics to the traditionally neutral nations of Finland and Sweden has changed dramatically.

What are those changes and how are they changing how these nations see their place in the larger Western security infrastructure? We’re going to look at how thing are changing in how they work and see each other, NATO, and what they need to do to provide for both their and collective defense.

Our guests for the full hour will be Colonel Bruce Acker, USAF (ret) and Captain Dan Lynch, USN (Ret).

Bruce is currently a Defense Strategy Consultant in Stockholm Sweden. He spent 30 years on active duty starting as a Air Defense Weapons flight test engineer upon graduation from the Air Force Academy, and subsequently served in Space, Missile Warning, and Missile Launch operations culminating as a Minuteman ICBM squadron Commander. Following staff tours managing future Air Force and Defense Space systems programs, he broadened to political military assignments as the US Air Attaché to Malaysia and as the US Defense Attaché and Senior Defense Official in Stockholm. Col Acker has published articles on regional security issues in the Swedish Royal Academy of War Sciences journal as well as leading National daily newspapers.

Dan is currently beginning his fifth year on the maritime faculty of the Swedish Defense University in Stockholm. He spent over 35 years on active duty starting as an enlisted Marine and upon graduation from the Naval Academy selected Naval Aviation where he commanded a VP squadron and a patrol and reconnaissance wing. Following major command, he served on the staff of the US ambassador to NATO in Brussels and retired after his last tour as the Naval Attache to Stockholm.

Due to the location of our guests, the show was recorded earlier today. Listen to the show to at 5pm or pick it up later by clicking here. You can also get the show later from our iTunes page or from our Stitcher page.

Fun with Russia - Putin Pushes, Gets Pushed Back by Baltic States

On Midrats last Sunday, our guest, Jorge Benitez, lead us in an interesting discussion of NATO and Russia. One of the topics was the triad of new NATO members Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia and the risks they face from - well - Putin's fantasy of putting back together the old Soviet Union. You can listen to the show here.

In light of this, this article from IEEE Spectrum is exactly on point, Fear of Russia Drives High-Voltage Power Projects in the Baltics:

Former Soviet Union satellites such as Ukraine, Georgia, and the three Baltic states—Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia—rely heavily on Russian energy, a dependence that colors the ongoing geopolitical tussle among the Russian Federation, the European Union, and NATO. But new energy infrastructure is beginning to free the Baltics from this drama, including two high-voltage direct current links to Lithuania nearing completion: the 500-megawatt LitPol Link with Poland and the 700-MW NordBalt cable to Sweden, which is among the world’s longest subsea power links.

The links will give the Baltics the ability to get 100 percent of their imported power from non-Russian sources. Laying the 453-kilometer NordBalt cable was hindered by a series of nerve-wracking interventions by Russian naval ships, prompting Lithuania to lodge an official complaint with Moscow. Despite this hurdle, both NordBalt and LitPol Link are expected to begin testing by December and should be in operation from January 2016, says Daivis Virbickas, CEO of the Lithuanian power grid operator Litgrid.

Putin has done a remarkable job of causing the rest of Europe to work hard to free themselves of ties that Russia could use to "punish" them for standing up for freedom from Putin's bullying.

Read the whole thing.