The Iran Deal: Sanctions Lifted with Threat of More Sanctions

So there is an Iran nuke deal

Iran and world powers capped a decade-long dispute by reaching a historic deal early Tuesday for Tehran to curb its nuclear program in exchange for the easing of economic sanctions.

The Islamic republic has been negotiating with the U.S., Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China for years, with diplomats most recently extending numerous deadlines in hopes of arriving at a workable and comprehensive plan.

President Barack Obama said the deal with Tehran ensures that "every pathway to a nuclear weapon" had been cut off.

"We have stopped the spread of nuclear weapons in this region," he said in an early-morning statement which — in a rare move — was carried on Iranian television.

Really?

Well, assume it's true. What's the downside to Iran if it cheats?

Obama said that if Iran violates the terms of the agreement, sanctions will be snapped back into place.

The deal is "not built on trust," he explained. "It is built on verification."

Oh my, more sanctions! I wonder if a strongly worded letter will accompany them?

And the sanctions?

The agreement includes the provision of a "snap back" mechanism that could lead to the reinstatement of sanctions within 65 days if Iran violates the terms of the deal, according to officials.

65 days is "snap back?"

Wow. No threat of immediate laying waste the countryside around Iran's nuke facilities and turning deserts into sheets of glass?

Alleged actual terms here.

Key phrase:

Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons.

Personally I would have made a violation of that provision an act of war and opened up all kinds of possibilities.

But that's just me.

The President issues his own threat about this deal, Obama threatens to veto any attempt to block Iranian nuclear deal. I guess that's a "red line" then, isn't it?

Must be a good deal, then.

Iran: Building a New "Air Defense Base" in Abadeh

Red pin marks Abadeh (click on image to enlarge)

From the always amazing Fars News Agency: "Iran Starts Building Powerful Air Defense Base in South"

The Iranian military has started construction of its largest air defense base in Southern Iran, a senior commander announced on Tuesday.

Deputy Commander of Khatam ol-Anbia Air Defense Base for Engineering Affairs Mohammad Hosseini further added that the new air defense site is built in the city of Abadeh in the Southern Fars province.

He said the air defense base is due to be built at the cost of $300mln and will have 6,000 personnel for a large array of duties, including educational ones.

Hosseini also said that the super modern air defense base will include one of the most important military training centers of the country which will be comprised of seven battalions.

Meantime, representative of Abadeh at the parliament, Rahim Zare', said "this air defense site will be the product of the achievements gained in all areas of science in the world".

Tehran launched an arms development program during the 1980-88 Iraqi imposed war on Iran to compensate for a US weapons embargo. Since 1992, Iran has produced its own tanks, armored personnel carriers, missiles and fighter planes.

Last month, a senior Iranian air defense commander stressed that all Iranian air defense units and systems are fully prepared to repel possible enemy air raids.

"Ground-to-air missile and artillery systems of Khatam ol-Anbia Air Defense Base of the Islamic Republic of Iran's Army are fully prepared to defend the Islamic homeland's territory," General Shahrokh Shahram said in July.

Abadeh is a small city located between some mountains out, roughly, in the middle of nowhere, right next to a whole lotta dirt. Reports indicate the site will be 200-hectares (roughly 500 acres or .77 square miles), which is pretty small to hold 6000 personnel. Medicine Bow, Wyoming, with 284 residents covers 3.5 square miles (lots of open space).

On the other hand, it lies about 80 115 miles southeast of Isfahan, where at least one of the nuclear facilities of Iran is located:

Red line shows roughly 115 miles from Abadeh to Isfahan

Esfahan [Isfahan] is said to be the primary location of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. The Nuclear Technology/Research Center in Esfahan is Iran's largest nuclear research center, and is said to employ as many as 3,000 scientists. Iran signed an agreement France in 1975 to build a nuclear research center in Isfahan, to provide training for personnel to operate the Bushehr reactor, located at the University of Isfahan. As of 1977 Iran reportedly planned to have at least one reactor and a small French-built fuel reprocessing facility in Isfahan by 1980.
***
Facilities includes a Miniaturized Neutron Source Reactor [MNSR] research reactor of Chinese origin with a capacity of 27 kilowatt thermal (kWt). China and Iran signed a nuclear cooperation agreement on 21 January 1990 that reportedly included the construction of a 27 MW plutonium production reactor at Isfahan. In September 1991 American satellite imagery reportedly detected initial construction activities. The open literature is rather confused as to whether the facility in question was a new 27 MW reactor, or the 27 KW miniature neutron source. Preparatory steps were taken in the mid-1990s to bring the reactor on line, although the reactor remained incomplete as of 1997. A Chinese-supplied heavy-water, zero-power research reactor is also located at the Center. Other extensive construction activity is in progress at the center, although there contradictory reports as to whether the new buildings are designed for nuclear weapons technologies.
***

Esfahan is also reportedly the site of Iran's largest missile assembly and production plant. This ballistic missile production facility, built with North Korean assistance, is capable of producing liquid propellants and missile structural components. According to reports published in Russia, apparently based on information developed by the Russian Federal Security Service, Esfahan is involved in the production of Scud-B and Scud-C surface-to-surface missiles by assembling components bought in North Korea and China. According to the 1995 Jane's Intelligence Review - Special Report No. 6 on Iran's weapons, North Korea helped build a "Scud Mod B" (320 km/1000 kg) assembly plant in Iran in 1988, but the plant apparently never manufactured any missiles. North Korea aided Iran in converting a missile maintenance facility into an assembly plant for the Scud Mod Cs. Other activities at this facility are reported to include R&D on unguided missiles and production of missile frames.

Esfahan is said to be one of Iran's major chemical weapons facilities, along with the facilities located at Damghan [the primary production facility], Parchin and Qazvin. Iran continues to upgrade and expand its chemical warfare production infrastructure and munitions arsenal, which includes blister, blood, choking agents, and nerve agents.

The Esfahan area is a major center for Iran's advanced defense industry, with plants for munition productions, tank overhaul, and helicopter and fixed wing aircraft maintenance. The main operational facilities for the army's aviation units are located at Esfahan, presumably at Khatamin Air Base northeast of the city.

Coincidence?

Iran: On the brink of nuclear weapons

In what will undoubtedly be an "unexpected!" surprise to the intel hacks who wrote the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), here, the WaPo reports IAEA says foreign expertise has brought Iran to threshold of nuclear capability

Intelligence provided to U.N. nuclear officials shows that Iran’s government has mastered the critical steps needed to build a nuclear weapon, receiving assistance from foreign scientists to overcome key technical hurdles, according to Western diplomats and nuclear experts briefed on the findings.

Documents and other records provide new details on the role played by a former Soviet weapons scientist who allegedly tutored Iranians over several years on building high-precision detonators of the kind used to trigger a nuclear chain reaction, the officials and experts said. Crucial technology linked to experts in Pakistan and North Korea also helped propel Iran to the threshold of nuclear capability, they added.

The officials, citing secret intelligence provided over several years to the International Atomic Energy Agency, said the records reinforce concerns that Iran continued to conduct weapons-related research after 2003 — when, U.S. intelligence agencies believe, Iranian leaders halted such experiments in response to international and domestic pressures.

Not a shock to most of us, but it appears the NIE from 2007 proved grossly incorrect.

Heads ought to roll, but usually don't.

Pertinent section of the 2007 NIE (I added the emphasis):

A. We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program 1; we also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons. We judge with high confidence that the halt, and Tehran’s announcement of its decision to suspend its declared uranium enrichment program and sign an Additional Protocol to its Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty Safeguards Agreement, was directed primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure resulting from exposure of Iran’s previously undeclared nuclear work.
• We assess with high confidence that until fall 2003, Iranian military entities were working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons.
• We judge with high confidence that the halt lasted at least several years. (Because of intelligence gaps discussed elsewhere in this Estimate, however, DOE and the NIC assess with only moderate confidence that the halt to those activities represents a halt to Iran's entire nuclear weapons program.)
• We assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons.
• We continue to assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Iran does not currently have a nuclear weapon.
• Tehran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005. Our assessment that the program probably was halted primarily in response to international pressure suggests Iran may be more vulnerable to influence on the issue than we judged
previously.