Iran: On the brink of nuclear weapons

In what will undoubtedly be an "unexpected!" surprise to the intel hacks who wrote the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), here, the WaPo reports IAEA says foreign expertise has brought Iran to threshold of nuclear capability

Intelligence provided to U.N. nuclear officials shows that Iran’s government has mastered the critical steps needed to build a nuclear weapon, receiving assistance from foreign scientists to overcome key technical hurdles, according to Western diplomats and nuclear experts briefed on the findings.

Documents and other records provide new details on the role played by a former Soviet weapons scientist who allegedly tutored Iranians over several years on building high-precision detonators of the kind used to trigger a nuclear chain reaction, the officials and experts said. Crucial technology linked to experts in Pakistan and North Korea also helped propel Iran to the threshold of nuclear capability, they added.

The officials, citing secret intelligence provided over several years to the International Atomic Energy Agency, said the records reinforce concerns that Iran continued to conduct weapons-related research after 2003 — when, U.S. intelligence agencies believe, Iranian leaders halted such experiments in response to international and domestic pressures.

Not a shock to most of us, but it appears the NIE from 2007 proved grossly incorrect.

Heads ought to roll, but usually don't.

Pertinent section of the 2007 NIE (I added the emphasis):

A. We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program 1; we also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons. We judge with high confidence that the halt, and Tehran’s announcement of its decision to suspend its declared uranium enrichment program and sign an Additional Protocol to its Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty Safeguards Agreement, was directed primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure resulting from exposure of Iran’s previously undeclared nuclear work.
• We assess with high confidence that until fall 2003, Iranian military entities were working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons.
• We judge with high confidence that the halt lasted at least several years. (Because of intelligence gaps discussed elsewhere in this Estimate, however, DOE and the NIC assess with only moderate confidence that the halt to those activities represents a halt to Iran's entire nuclear weapons program.)
• We assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons.
• We continue to assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Iran does not currently have a nuclear weapon.
• Tehran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005. Our assessment that the program probably was halted primarily in response to international pressure suggests Iran may be more vulnerable to influence on the issue than we judged
previously.

Iranian Subs Go to Sea = Yawn

Iranian Kilo-Class Sub

Much ado has been made about an announced sortie of Iranian ships (and wow!, maybe a submarine) in the Red Sea, see Iranian Navy Deploys Submarines in High Seas.

International waters is international waters, and the Iranians have as much right to be out there as anyone else with a boat collection.

I view this more as a publicity ploy that allows other naval forces to collect intelligence on Iranian submarines.

Here's the whole Fars News Agency report for your reading pleasure (I added some highlighting, but left off the snarking):

Informed sources said that the Iranian Navy has deployed its submarines in far seas as part of its plan for widening its naval presence in the high seas and oceans.

An informed source told FNA on Tuesday that the submarines were deployed in international waters together with the dispatch of 14th fleet of warships sent by Iran to the high seas.

The move comes after high-ranking Navy commanders announced preparedness to send submarines to long-term missions.

The source said that Iran's fleet of warships is now in the Red Sea as part of its naval mission.

"Identifying combat vessels of the different world countries, collecting information about sea beds in international waters are among the main tasks of these submarines," the source added.

The Iranian Navy dispatched its 14th flotilla of warships to the Gulf of Aden in May to protect the country's cargo ships and oil tankers against Somali pirates.

The 14th fleet of warships, comprised of IRI Bandar Abbas Warship and IRI Shahid Naqdi Destroyer, is tasked with patrolling and providing security for Iran's shipping lines.

In March, a senior Navy commander of the Iranian Army stressed the need for the Navy to boost its naval deployments outside the country's territorial waters as a strategic force.

"The Navy is in the middle of field and should be present all throughout the world seas," Lieutenant Commander of the Iranian Navy Rear Admiral Gholam-Reza Khadem Biqam said at the time.

Also in March, Commander of Iran's Navy Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari announced that the Iranian Navy planned to expand its operational zone far beyond the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman in the next Iranian year (started on March 21).

In December, Sayyari said that the country was deploying submarines in the high seas to further boost its military power.

"To become the superior power in the region, we should turn into a regional power in military defense, and we should prove our might and capability not only inside, but also outside the region," he continued.

The Iranian Army Navy and the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Navy have tight cooperation in controlling the country's waterways and protecting Iran's interests inside territorial waters and in the high seas.

Iran's naval power has even been acknowledged by foes. In a Sep. 11, 2008 report, the Washington Institute for the Near East Policy said that in the two decades since the Iraqi imposed war on Iran, the Islamic Republic has excelled in naval capabilities and is able to wage unique asymmetric warfare against larger naval forces.

According to the report, Iran's Navy has been transformed into a highly motivated, well-equipped, and well-financed force and is effectively in control of the world's oil lifeline, the Strait of Hormuz.

You might note that the Iranian "flotilla" and "fleet" consists of two surface ships. The IRIS Bandar Abas is a support and training ship and the other ship is a corvette, regardless of how Fars classifies it.

Exactly where the submarine (In my view, probably a single submarine, not "submarines" as indicated in the Fars piece) has deployed is not revealed except in "international waters." Maybe that's the Red Sea, maybe that's 30 miles off the Iranian coast.

Iranian Nahang Mini-Sub

Iran's submarine fleet is not large, as set out here:

Iran's submarine force currently consists of three Russian Kilo-class diesel-electric submarines (Tareq 901, Noor 902, Yunes 903), one 500-ton Nahang and four 120-ton Yono-class (also referred to as Qadir or Ghadir-class) midget submarines.

Iranian Ghadir Midget Sub

I doubt they sent any of the midget boats out, unless they were carried on some other ship. The Nahang is mini-sub, with external weapons, and unlikely to make a long transit. So, let's say they sent a Kilo somewhere. Good for them. Other navies do that all the time, without all the hoopla. Of course, this announcement is all about hoopla, isn't it?


This deployment reminds me of the old military adage that tracers "work both ways," in that  the announced mission of the Iranian sub's tasks is "Identifying combat vessels of the different world countries, collecting information about sea beds in international waters . . ." but going to sea also allows "the combat vessels of the different world countries" to do a little intelligence gathering on the Iranian submarine(s).

Got a ways to go on the "regional domination" thing. But, hey, they are out there. And maybe they are looking for places to lay mines. Or whatever.

See The Arkenstone's take on the deployment.

Hmmm: A worm for Iran?

 CNET report Expert: Stuxnet was built to sabotage Iran nuclear plant

An industrial control security researcher in Germany who has analyzed the Stuxnet computer worm is speculating that it may have been created to sabotage a nuclear plant in Iran.

Hmmm.

I guess we won't know for awhile, if ever.

The bottom picture shows the worm nearing the reactor facility. That's a big worm.

Spy Tale: "The Navy's Biggest Betrayal" Uncovered 25 Years Ago

From the pages of the June issue of Naval History Magazine, the story of the "Walker family" spy ring in "The Navy's Biggest Betrayal" by John Prados:

The Navy, in which John Walker served for 20 years, was enormously damaged by his espionage. Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger concluded that the Soviet Union made significant gains in naval warfare that were attributable to Walker's spying. His espionage provided Moscow "access to weapons and sensor data and naval tactics, terrorist threats, and surface, submarine, and airborne training, readiness and tactics," according to Weinberger. A quarter-century after John Walker's arrest, it is illuminating to revisit the story of his naval spy ring, both for what it reveals about espionage versus security and for how it highlights the ambitions and frailties at the heart of spying.

The piece is worth reading, although "understanding" Walker's motives (bad childhood, family issues, needed money)hardly makes his situation unique nor acceptable.

As for the suggesting that part of the spy's motivation was to end the Cold War ("'The farce of the cold war and the absurd war machine it spawned," he commented, "was an ever-growing pathetic joke to me.'")seems like a pathetic attempt at self-justification for a man who sold out his country, family and shipmates for cold hard cash. That the author of the piece seems inclined to accept that Walker's spying may have added in calming tensions between the Soviet empire and the U.S. is not exactly a "value free" suggestion on the author's part.

Did Americans die as a result of what Walker and his "family" did? We don't really know, but it certainly cost a few billion dollars to turn the communications security systems around. Hard to justify that by a post facto claim of "good intentions." We all know the road those lead to.

By the way, Walker is reportedly ill in prison, but has a potential release date in 2015.

Iranian UAV Shot Down Over Iraq

Coalition Jets Shoot Down Iranian Drone Over Iraq:

March 16, 2009 – Coalition jet fighters shot down an Iranian drone that was hovering over Iraq late last month, Multinational Force Iraq officials confirmed today.

The incident occurred Feb. 25, about 60 miles northeast of Baghdad, officials said in a statement.

Two coalition aircraft were directed to visually identify the unmanned aerial vehicle after it was detected hovering inside the Iraqi border. The pilots confirmed that it wasn’t a coalition aircraft and that no collateral damage would result from a shoot-down.

Coalition air forces tracked the UAV for nearly one hour and 10 minutes before the pilots engaged and shot it down "well inside Iraqi airspace," officials said.

Officials said they believe the drone to be an Iranian-made Ababil 3 model UAV.

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates and military leaders have long accused Iran of interference in Iraq. Iran poses “a real problem,” Gates said on PBS’ “Tavis Smiley Show” March 11.

“I think it’s one of the significant challenges that we’re going to face over the next several years,” he said.

Information on the Iranian UAV Global Security.

Intelligence Brief: China "More Aggressive;" Possible Al Qaeda Ally in Somalia

Retired admiral and current National Intelligence chief Dennis Blair and Defense Intelligence chief Lt Gen Maples testify to the House Armed Services Committee as reported here:

National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair told Congress Tuesday that China's alleged harassment of an unarmed U.S. Navy craft is the "most serious" he's seen in eight years, warning that China appears to have adopted a more aggressive military stance.

"The Chinese trajectory there has changed in a somewhat more aggressive way in the past several years from what we had seen earlier," he said, specifically pointing to activity in the South China Sea. "They seem to be more ... military, aggressive, forward-pushing than we saw a couple of years before."

Blair said the debate is still open as to whether China's military power will be "used for good or for pushing people around."
***
Maples also said the Somali extremist group al-Shabaab is poised to formally merge with Al Qaeda, expanding the terrorist franchise in East Africa.

Maples said the propaganda released by both groups recently highlights their ideological similarities, suggesting a merger is forthcoming.

Al-Shabaab conducts almost daily attacks in Somalia. A merger would strengthen Al Qaeda's foothold in East Africa.

On the good news side, their testimony was that Iran probably doesn't yet have enough enriched uranium to make a weapon.

UPDATE: Some readers may find this post on Asian Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) a good refresher. Image stressing importance of Southeast Asia Sea Lanes from Maritime Economic Interests & the Sea Lines of Communication Through the South China Sea by Noer and Gregory. A Reuters analysis of the disputed maritime borders of the South China Sea here.

GWOT(!): Intel Concerns

Why fighting terrorists is hard - the world of imperfect intelligence, as discussed by a retired Canadian admiral here:

With the eyes of the Canadian intelligence community focused almost exclusively on operations in Afghanistan, it might be time to consider the threats within Canada's borders, a conference of security and intelligence officials was warned Saturday.

"When I look at the next 10 to 15 years, the thing that bothers me the most The admiral told delegates he worries about security threats in the Philippines and Indonesia and the possibility of fissionable material from North Korea arriving in Syria or even closer to home for Canadians.

"Can someone tell me why that now we've opened the Port of Prince Rupert and with the degree of traffic that we have there, that they (North Korean ships) can't land there?" he asked.

"Because I'm from B.C. I worry about radicalized environmentalism, eco-terrorism and we haven't talked a lot about the religious fervour of that topic and where it might take us in the next five years."is terrorism - but not just in Afghanistan," said retired Rear Admiral Roger Girourard, former commander of Maritime Forces Pacific for the Canadian Forces.
***

Big intelligence meeting

Big intelligence meeting as reported here:

Top military intelligence chiefs from 19 nations gathered here yesterday for the first time to discuss terrorism, maritime security and disaster relief.
“This is an opportunity for the intelligence chiefs from all these countries to get together to talk about areas of mutual cooperation and how we can go about sharing information for the benefit of all,” said Major General Mohamed Salleh Ismail, Malaysia’s Director General of Defence Intelligence.
“Having to combat these invisible enemies, it becomes crucial for us to co-operate and share intelligence to counter them. Combat readiness to address any security threats requires accurate and reliable intelligence of the enemy,” he said. The first Asia Pacific Intelligence Chiefs Conference - conceived and organised by Malaysian and the US - is chaired by Lieutenant General Michael Maples, director of the US Defence Intelligence Agency.
The chief of Malaysia’s armed forces, General Abdul Aziz Zainal, said in opening remarks that threats from “alienated individuals and militant organisations” were “the new challenges confronting the 21st century.”
Mohamed Salleh called for better cooperation to strengthen security in the Malacca Strait, through which 30% of world trade and half of the world’s energy supply passes.
He also said that lessons learned during the 2004 tsunami, where the military played a crucial role in providing aid, indicated a need for better information systems to better handle humanitarian crises and disaster relief.
Attending the three-day talks are representatives from Australia, Bangladesh, Britain, Brunei, Cambodia, France, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Thailand, the US and Vietnam.
Organisers said China was invited but opted out at the last minute without giving any reason.

NATO Naval Forces Off Africa: Intel Mission?

Reported here:

NATO warships are scouting the coast of Africa on a mission that could lay the groundwork for action by the alliance against pirates off Somalia.

The six ships are taking part in manoeuvres with the South African Navy as part of a circumnavigation of the continent, the first by a Nato force.

Admiral James Burnell-Nugent, commander of the Nato flotilla, said yesterday that the Africa mission was intended to get the alliance’s maritime forces more involved outside their traditional arena but should not be seen as “expansion”.

He said: “It’s got nothing to do with oil or the war on terror.”

The intention was to improve Nato’s ability to protect trade routes and to increase its knowledge of “the good guys and the bad guys” in the region.

Burnell-Nugent said the “bad guys” included human traffickers and pirates operating off the Horn of Africa.

Asked if the mission were a prelude to direct Nato action against the pirates, who have raided ships carrying food aid to the region, he said: “That depends on Nato’s resolve ... but if you don’t understand what’s going on, you haven’t got the knowledge from which these issues can be addressed.”

Warning shot across the bow - fired! More on Standing NATO Maritime Group One here. Ship images are from that site, and show SNMG1 in training, not on its current mission.

Speaking of "human trafficking," see here for news on the annual build up of people waiting to sail away from Africa to seek a better life elsewhere:

Some 3,000 Ethiopians have gathered in the dusty northern Somalia port of Bossaso, joining Somalis preparing to make the risky trip to Yemen across the Gulf of Aden during the annual sailing season.

The bad weather that kept smugglers' boats ashore between June and August is coming to an end and a fresh wave of people smuggling has already started. Those making the journey risk everything; at least 385 people died during the crossing through the first five months of this year.
***
A Somali humanitarian worker in Bossaso explained that many of those considering making the trip were persuaded by middlemen to head to Bossaso, where the smugglers take over. "Smugglers are businessmen who compete with one another," he explained. "They are so eager to attract new customers that some have even disseminated videotapes in Bossaso to advertise life in Saudi Arabia in the teashops where Ethiopians gather."

The aid worker said he tried in vain to tell people that the promises were hollow and to warn them about the deadly risks they faced. "Once the migrant is stranded with 300 others on a small boat and beaten by a crew of four or five men high on drugs and holding guns, he discovers the true face of the smugglers, but it is too late," he said. "For smugglers, migrants are just merchandise."

The local authorities in Bossaso, which is surrounded by shantytowns built by displaced Somalis, cannot cope alone with the arrival of so many destitute people. Many of the would-be voyagers, having been robbed of their money, resort to begging in the streets.

An earlier post on some of the victims of the smugglers, including what seems to be a useless "UN Protocol" (what, another one?)here. Photo is of 27 African migrants, whose boat sank during their attempt to leave Africa, as reported here:

For three days and three nights, these African migrants clung desperately to life. Their means of survival is a tuna net, being towed across the Mediterranean by a Maltese tug that refused to take them on board after their frail boat sank.

Malta and Libya, where they had embarked on their perilous journey, washed their hands of them. Eventually, they were rescued by the Italian navy.

The astonishing picture shows them hanging on to the buoys that support the narrow runway that runs around the top of the net. They had had practically nothing to eat or drink.