Friday Film: "Replenishment at Sea" (1965)

Friday Film: "The Seventh Fleet" (1957)

Our fleet for Asia and the Indian Ocean as it was during the Cold War when the Seventh Fleet was the "balance of power in the Far East" and "the most powerful single sea force in the world today."

Fun with Russia: Ukraine Proposal - Danube River Exclusion of Russian Shipping Due to "Terrorism Threat"

Reported as Ukraine Threatens to Block Russian Shipping on the Danube

Yury Lavrenyuk, Ukraine’s deputy infrastructure minister, announced that his agency had “appealed to the National Security and Defense Council regarding the prohibition of the entrance of Russian ships into the domestic waterways of Ukraine because of the high level of terrorist threats” such ships allegedly present. Allowing such ships to pass, he said “is impermissible” because there is “critical infrastructure” along such waterways. His words drew support from other Ukrainian ministries and agencies.
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In response to Moscow’s threat to bottle up Ukrainian shipping within the shared Azov Sea, the Ukrainian government is currently considering a plan to block Russia’s use of the Danube River. Ukraine’s infrastructure ministry has proposed closing to all Russian shipping the canal in the extreme southeast border region of Ukraine, which vessels use to pass the Danube delta, from the Black Sea to the upstream Danube proper. Such an action would affect relatively small numbers of ships. Nonetheless, Russian officials are clearly worried it could reduce their ability to supply countries in the Balkans. At present, however, the possibility of such a ban is only a threat. And it is likely part of a complex implicit negotiation between Kyiv and Moscow about free passage through the Kerch Strait, across which Russia is building a bridge to occupied Crimea (see EDM, February 12, 22), and about the use of ports in that occupied Ukrainian peninsula by Russian shipping.

About the Azoz Sea threat, see Jamestown Foundation's Paul Goble's Russian Navy Preparing to Bottle up Ukrainian Shipping in Sea of Azov:

From Moscow’s point of view, its loss of control over much of the Black Sea littoral and ports as a result of the disintegration of the Soviet Union is a serious problem, one that Russian moves first in Abkhazia and then in Crimea were intended to help solve. Indeed, even before the Crimean annexation in 2014, Russian commentators talked about depriving Ukraine of its access to the sea by creating a new “Novorossiya” state that would extend to the borders of Moldova and possibly even include Transnistria .... Now, in the wake of Ukraine’s seizure of two vessels for violating its territorial waters (see below), Moscow officials are openly suggesting that the Russian Navy could limit or even block the transit of Ukrainian ships, civilian and military, through the Kerch Straits. This would effectively make the Sea of Azov an internal Russian waterway, something officials in Moscow had hinted at in the past, in discussions about the supposed need to defend President Vladimir Putin’s Crimea bridge from attack ..
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On March 25, the Ukrainian border guard service detained the Russian-flagged fishing vessel Nord, which was operating in Ukrainian waters, in the Sea of Azov. The boat, registered in Crimea, and its ten crew members were escorted to the Azov Sea port of Berdiansk (Dpsu.gov.ua, March 26). They are currently awaiting trial in Ukraine. Then, on April 10, Ukrainian authorities arrested a Russian dredger ship, temporarily docked in the Odessa-region port of Yuzhny, for allegedly carrying out illegal sand extraction works in occupied Crimea (TASS, April 10).

So much fun, so much positioning.

On the map, circle to the left is the Danube area and the one to the right is the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait.

War Against Terrorists: Al Qaeda is back in the news and gets attacked to forestall "imminent attack"

U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Carlos M. Vazquez II

Al Qaeda makes the news again, and gets attacked in Syria, as set out here

Pentagon spokesman Rear Adm. John Kirby confirmed Tuesday that the plotting was far along.

“This is a very dangerous group,” Kirby told Fox News. “We had information, good information that they were very actively plotting and very close to the end of that plotting -- and planning an attack on targets either in Europe or the U.S. homeland.”

As for the result of the airstrikes, he said: “We think we hit what we were aiming at.”

More from the Long War Journal:

The US-led bombing campaign in Syria is targeting the Al Nusrah Front, an official branch of al Qaeda, as well as the Islamic State, an al Qaeda offshoot that is one of Al Nusrah's fiercest rivals.

Before they were launched, the air strikes were framed as being necessary to damage the Islamic State, a jihadist group that has seized large swaths of territory across Syria and Iraq. But in recent days US officials signaled that they were also concerned about al Qaeda's presence in Syria, including the possibility that al Qaeda operatives would seek to use the country as a launching pad for attacks in the West.

Several well-connected online jihadists have posted pictures of the Al Nusrah Front positions struck in the bombings. They also claim that al Qaeda veterans dispatched from Afghanistan to Syria, all of whom were part of Al Nusrah, have been killed.
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Among the Al Nusrah Front positions targeted in the bombings are locations where members of the so-called "Khorasan group" are thought to be located. Ayman al Zawahiri, the emir of al Qaeda, sent the group to Syria specifically to plan attacks against the US and its interests. The group, which takes its name from al Qaeda's Khorasan shura (or advisory) council, is reportedly led by Muhsin al Fadhli, an experienced al Qaeda operative who has been involved in planning international terrorist attacks for years.

Al Fadhli's presence in Syria was first reported by the Arab Times in March. Shortly thereafter, The Long War Journal confirmed and expanded on this reporting. [See LWJ report, Former head of al Qaeda's network in Iran now operates in Syria.] The Long War Journal reported at the time that al Fadhli's plans "were a significant cause for concern among counterterrorism authorities."

The New York Times reported earlier this month that al Fadhli leads the Khorasan group in Syria.

Unconfirmed reports on jihadist social media sites say that al Fadhli was killed in the bombings. Neither US officials, nor al Qaeda has verified this reporting. The fog of war often makes it difficult to quickly confirm whether an individual jihadist has been killed, wounded, or survived unscathed. Initial reports should be treated with skepticism and there is no firm evidence yet that al Fadhli has been killed.

Read more: here

More on the Al Nusrah Front here:

Al-Nusra Front (also the Nusra Front or Jabhat al-Nusra) was formed in late 2011, when Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) emir Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi sent operative Abu Muhammad al-Julani to Syria to organize jihadist cells in the region. The Nusra Front rose quickly to prominence among rebel organizations in Syria for its reliable supply of arms, funding, and fighters—some from donors abroad, and some from AQI. Considered well trained, professional, and relatively successful on the battlefield, they earned the respect and support of many rebel groups, including some in the secular Free Syrian Army (FSA). However, al-Nusra also made some enemies among the Syrian people and opposition by imposing religious laws, although the group has shied away from the types of brutal executions and sectarian attacks that made AQI unpopular. Al-Nusra was also the first Syrian force to claim responsibility for terrorist attacks that killed civilians. (footnotes omitted)
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Al-Nusra is affiliated with AQ and has pledged allegiance to the organization, serving as its only official branch in the Syrian conflict after global AQ emir Ayman al-Zawahiri publicly disowned ISIS following months of ISIS disobedience to AQ orders.

So, it's not really that the Al Nusrah Front and the Khorasan group just sprang up - but have been around and have enjoyed the chaos of Syria as providing recruiting and a safe haven.

Until now.

Somali Pirates: Seychelles asks China for counter-pirate "presence"

UPDATE here.

Perhaps reflecting a shift in the currents of international sea power or perhaps just an extension of an existing relationship, the Chinese have been invited to extend some power to an island cluster in the the Indian Ocean bothered by Somali pirates.

As reported by AFP as "Seychelles invites China to set up anti-piracy presence":

"We have invited the Chinese government to set up a military presence on Mahe to fight the pirate attacks that the Seychelles face on a regular basis," Adam said.

"For the time being China is studying this possibility because she has economic interests in the region and Beijing is also involved in the fight against piracy," he explained.
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"Together, we need to increase our surveillance capacity in the Indian Ocean... as Seychelles has a strategic position between Asia and Africa," Michel said in a statement, adding that China had given its army two light aircraft.

The two countries signed a military cooperation agreement in 2004 that has enabled some 50 Seychelles soldiers to be trained in China. They renewed their agreement Friday, with China to provide further training and equipment.

If the Chinese military presence goes ahead, "it won't be the first foreign military presence here because the Americans already have a small drone station here that they use in the fight against piracy," Adam said.

After warships started deploying in the Gulf of Aden in 2008 to thwart attacks on vessels, Somali pirates enlarged their field of operations into the Indian Ocean, including towards the Seychelles.

Indian Ocean: Sea Power and Pirates

Interesting piece found at Africa: Scrambling for sea power in the Indian Ocean - Norwegian Council for Africa:

With the rapid economic and demographic growth of India and China, the rise of South Asian economies and the looming threat of piracy, there is a veritable "scramble" for sea power in the world's third largest ocean.

Despite the boom in air travel in the past century, 90 per cent of global commerce and 65 per cent of all oil travel by sea.

Robert Kaplan, in his maritime treatise Monsoon, notes that the Indian Ocean currently accounts for half of the world's container traffic.

Global energy needs are expected to rise by 45 per cent in the next 20 years, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), and most of this growth will be fuelled by demand from India and China.

The bulk of India and China's crude oil imports are from the Persian Gulf - more than 60 per cent of oil bound for China crosses the Indian Ocean through the Strait of Malacca, a narrow channel of water that separates Malaysia from Indonesia.
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The military response to pirate attacks has brought about a rare show of unity by countries that are either openly hostile to each other, or at least wary of co-operation, military or otherwise.

Military counter-piracy operations are conducted by naval ships from the Combined Task Force 151 (CTF-151) of Russia, China and India.

The International Maritime Bureau reports that by the first half of 2010, these increased policing efforts by Somali government authorities on land, along with international naval vessels at sea, contributed to a drop in piracy in the Gulf of Aden from 86 a year before to 33.

According to Ecoterra, however, as of mid-November 2010, more than 500 crew members and at least 31 foreign vessels remained in the hands of Somali pirates.

The implications of these power plays for East African economies are far-reaching.

Terrorism, drug smuggling and piracy are among the main challenges being staged in the Indian Ocean that directly affect East Africa, and that the governments of the region must confront.

The pertinent question at the moment is how military and political alliances between East African states and dominant naval powers in the Indian Ocean will play out.

Yes, that is a very good question.

UPDATE: The Norwegians are having a discussion about sea power in the Indian Ocean as ship owners assert that the Norwegian government is not doing enough to protection this vital industry in the IO at Shipowners blast anti-piracy effort:

“Little Norway is a major power on the high seas, and this is perhaps the only area where the international community has special expectations regarding our contribution,” Henriksen told DN.

“While the number of attacks increase and the pirates build up their arms, the Norwegian authorities have pulled out,” Henriksen claimed. “In this situation, Norway is leaving it to others to protect our own fleet. The Norwegian authorities aren’t showing any will to protect Norwegian ships or their crews.

Somali Pirates: China Joins the Grownups

From an opinion piece by Rory Medcalf titled "Deeper logic to China's gunboat diplomacy"

Last Friday, two destroyers and a supply vessel departed on China's first long-range naval expedition since 1433. The decision to join the global armada in the pirate-plagued waters off Somalia is a momentous step in China's rise as a world power.
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China has long been a free rider on the ocean highways. It has enjoyed the benefits of maritime trade and energy routes, so vital to its economic boom, while other countries' navies have kept them open.

Yet with growing wealth, pride and ambition come expectations that Beijing will contribute to the safety of an interdependent world. It was only a matter of time before China, along with the other awakening giant India, joined the club of maritime security providers, using their fleets simultaneously for self-interest and the common good, whether fighting piracy, interdicting smuggling or delivering disaster relief.
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The Somali piracy crisis makes the ideal platform for China's debut on the high seas. It gives Beijing every justification for easing its doctrine of non- intervention: Chinese lives and interests are in danger, the United Nations has blessed action in Somali waters, almost everyone else is in the game, and what passes for the Somali government has invited China in. And in times of economic pain, a show of military strength can be a politically smart distraction.

There is also a deeper logic to China's experiment in gunboat diplomacy. China's strategists worry at the vulnerability of their economy to maritime corridors, such as the Strait of Malacca, which they think America's superior navy could choke at will.

The primary mission of the People's Liberation Army Navy remains stopping Taiwan from declaring independence, as well as keeping US forces at bay in any ensuing war. But some new or projected capabilities are meant to give Beijing wider options, whether thwarting energy blockades, deterring other powers, or protecting Chinese nationals and interests far away.
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China has as much right as any trading nation to guard itself in the lawless waters off the Horn of Africa. Warships from European Union nations, the US, India, Russia and even Malaysia are already on patrol; there is talk of South Korea and Japan joining in.

It was inconceivable that China would forever outsource its maritime security to the United States or India.

The challenge now is to forge operational cohesion in a motley multinational flotilla. The Chinese presence is a critical opportunity for China, the US, India and others to shape the rules and habits of cooperation and communication at sea that could be crucial to future peace. As things stand, these navies lack even a basic agreement to stop accidental clashes, like the treaty that helped keep the Cold War cold.

Lot of ocean out there, but lots of chokepoints for China to worry over. Cooperation makes it easier to avoid misunderstandings and the consequences that can follow. Nice to have the Chinese moving up to the grownup table of sea lane protection.

Sea Service PR Push: Conversations with the Country

The United States Navy has undertaken a public relations offensive :

Senior Officers from the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps and Coast Guard have presented the new maritime strategy known as "Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower" to business and community leaders in cities nationwide as part of their "Conversations with the Country" program

There may have been other sessions held before the release of the "Cooperative Strategy" because the Navy says that citizen participation played a role in the drafting of the strategy:

"Our citizens were deeply involved in development of this strategy through a series of public forums known as the "Conversations with the Country." Three themes dominated these discussions: our people want us to remain strong; they want us to protect them and our homeland; and they want us to work with partners around the world to prevent war."

Whatever.

I attended yesterday's session and sat among the "business and community leaders" who had been invited to the conversation.

It was refreshing to see the Navy, Coast Guard and Marines out reminding people that we are a maritime nation, that our Navy faces a deficit in combatant ships (we have 279, the minimum we need is 313 along with the sailors to man 34 more ships) and that the Marines, Navy and Coast Guard provide a defense in depth for our national security.

That the presentation was slickly presented, included tons of nice handouts and good presentations by the Commandant of the Marine Corps and others was a bonus. It was a clever "lite" version of a survey course called "Introduction to Strategy."

It is my view that it was not designed to overwhelm those in the crowd unfamiliar with maritime matters with details. Many topics got brief mentions or touches- "sea bases," strategic sea lift, sea lines of communication, hybrid war, long war, the "Africa Station" concept and the push forward of humanitarian aid all got tossed out, but were not all discussed in depth. Considering the time constraints this probably should not be surprising.

Was it a conversation? Well, ordinary citizens did get to ask questions and mostly have them answered. A couple of young people (at least one high school student) got to ask about maritime issues and some apparent Congressional liaison types got to remind Navy leaders that budgets have long lead times...

How successful is the presentation? From among those in the crowd who were not veterans of the sea services (and perhaps from some who were) came questions asking "How can we help?"

I mark that as a success.

I wish the answers had been a little stronger instead of just "Write your Congressman," -- there should have been something like join the Navy League (the services should invite the local Navy League, Marine Corps League and the Coastie equivalent and introduce them), tell people to invite their Congressman to speak on maritime matters (that will keep such matters on his/her mind) and having the ability of interested people to sign up to get training to take home to their Rotary Club luncheons...

Ultimately, it was good for what it was. If you went seeking to debate the new strategy with its authors, well, this was not the forum. For reminding people about the sea services, it was perfect.

I do give the maritime services a "well done" for working to get their strategic vision out before the public in a time when ground combat dominates the news cycle.

On a personal note, Galrahn of Information Dissemination was able to twist my arm to have a couple of beers (well, we both had more than a couple) afterward. Look for his take on the event, and I know he was granted some unusual access during the sessions...