CNAS2016: ISIS Study Group - Presentation and Discussion

A truly excellent discussion of fighting ISIS from the Center for a New Anerican Security 2016 conference

Orlando Terrorist 911 Transcripts Now Released in an Unredacted Form

Apparently there was a sudden outbreak of common sense in the administration and FBI, DOJ release new, full transcript of Orlando shooter's 911 call

An earlier version of the transcript had deleted the word “Islamic State” and the name of ISIS leader “Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.” Omar Mateen made the 50-second 911 call in which he claimed responsibility for the assault and pledged allegiance to the terror organization's chief at 2:35 a.m., more than a half hour into the June 12 slaughter at gay nightclub Pulse.

“I pledge allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi may God protect him [in Arabic], on behalf of the Islamic State,” Mateen says on the new transcript.

The old version had several words scrubbed and read: "I pledge allegiance to [omitted] may God protect him [in Arabic], on behalf of [omitted]."

House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., called the earlier decision by DOJ and the FBI to release only a partial transcript "preposterous."

"We know the shooter was a radical Islamist extremist inspired by ISIS," Ryan said in a statement. "We also know he intentionally targeted the LGBT community. The administration should release the full, unredacted transcript so the public is clear-eyed about who did this, and why."

Before the Redaction: Early Reports on the Orlando Terrorist's Content of Phone Calls to the 911 Operator

Orlando nightclub shooter Omar Mateen mentioned Boston bombers in 911 call:

Statement from Mass. State Police:

"During a conference call with federal law enforcement officials a short time ago, Massachusetts State Police and other local law enforcement authorities learned that the Orlando nightclub gunman, during his rampage, pledged allegiance to ISIS and referenced the Tsarnaev brothers, the terrorists who exploded bombs at the 2013 Boston Marathon. In light of that information, the Commonwealth Fusion Center continues to share information and intelligence with federal authorities investigating the Orlando terrorist act as well as with police assigned to the Boston Regional Intelligence Center.

"As previously stated, the names of the gunman and his wife did not appear in any databases of potential terrorist suspects maintained by local authorities; however, law enforcement agencies in Massachusetts continue to work with federal authorities to learn more about the nature of the statement about the Tsarnaev brothers attributed to the Orlando terrorist.

"No further information is available at this time."

Orlando Gunman Omar Mateen Called 911 From Bathroom, Says House Intelligence Panel's Rep. Schiff : NPR

SCHIFF: Well, we had a number of briefings from the FBI over the last couple days. He was interviewed both, I guess, in 2013 and 2014 on the basis of concerning statements he made to co-workers. The FBI evidently ran down those statements and those leads - was not able to develop the evidence to bring some kind of a charge of material support for terrorism or any conspiracy case. And this is the reality, the FBI fans out across the country when people do see something and say something. But it doesn't always result in the bringing of charges. And it's simply not enough when people express even very offensive views, very radical views if there's no evidence that they're acting to effectuate them to bring about the violence.

I think the FBI director will address this probably later today. And certainly we're going to be scouring over those files again to see were there some things that were missed, some steps that could've been taken. But there's often going to be the case where people known to us...

INSKEEP: Right.

SCHIFF: ...That are a matter of concern are not apprehended - can't be apprehended and go on to commit acts of violence.

INSKEEP: OK. Two questions based on the briefings you received. This is a man who during the incident we're told - our justice correspondent Carrie Johnson who's with us in the studios confirms to us that he made a 911 call. He in some manner pledged allegiance to ISIS, we're told, during the attack. First, based on your briefings, do you know that that's actually what he did? Do you have any idea of how he worded it on that 911 call?

SCHIFF: Well, what my understanding is that he did call 911. It sounds from the press conference as well today that was during the period where he was holed up in the bathroom with hostages. And during that call, my understanding is that he pledged allegiance to Baghdadi and to ISIS.

INSKEEP: Oh, the caliph. OK.

Significance of Orlando gunman calling 911 during standoff:

The FBI said investigators are following up on about 100 leads in the Orlando attack that killed 50 people, including the gunman, Omar Mateen. It is the deadliest mass shooting in U.S. history.

The 29-year-old shooter opened fire around 2 a.m. ET at Pulse, a nightclub that's described itself as Orlando's hottest gay bar. He called 911 during his nearly three-hour standoff with the police, holding several hostages and pledging allegiance to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).
Orlando shooting survivor: I can still hear everybody yelling, gunshots firing
"I think that's very significant because ISIS tells its followers that they must pledge bayat, they must pledge allegiance to ISIS before they die. We saw that in San Bernardino, and now we've seen it here," former CIA deputy director and CBS News senior security contributor Michael Morell said Monday on "CBS This Morning." "So I think it's very important because it shows that he was in touch with that ISIS messaging."

Orlando Nightclub Attack: What We Know:

President Obama says it appears Omar Mateen was radicalized by extremist propaganda disseminated on the Internet. Here’s an excerpt from his remarks at the White House made after he received a security briefing:

We’re still at the preliminary stages of the investigation, and there’s a lot more that we have to learn. The one thing that we can say is that this is being treated as a terrorist investigation. It appears that the shooter was inspired by various extremist information that was disseminated on the Internet. All those materials are currently being searched, exploited so we can have a better sense of the pathway that the killer took in making a decision to launch this attack. … At this stage, we see no clear evidence that he was directed externally. It does appear that at the last minute he pronounced allegiance to ISIL, but there’s no evidence so far that he was, in fact, directed by ISIL, and there are also, at this stage, no direct evidence that he was part of a larger plot. In that sense, it appears to be similar to what we saw in San Bernardino, but we don’t yet know. (emphasis added to President Obama's own words)

I don't know why the FBI decided to close the corral gate after the cattle have left by redacting the comments of this terrorist, but if it's to prevent word getting out that this was an act by an ISIS devotee, I think it's just a little late.

The ISIS Media Front

Every ISIS inspired rampage reminds me that it we are waging, in addition to the kinetic war, a "hearts and minds" campaign against the appeal of jihadist rhetoric and imagery. We discussed this on Midrats Episode 322: Radical Extremism, Visual Propaganda, and The Long War with Professor Cori Dauber and Mark Robinson:


Well, here's some further analysis How to Beat Back ISIS Propaganda from Dr. Haror J. Ingram:

Messaging that exploits the disparity between what one’s adversary says and does, while promoting the close alignment of one’s own words and actions, is a timeless propaganda strategy. As Professor Doug Borer said during discussions at the Naval Postgraduate School: “it’s the say-do gap, stupid.” As a messaging strategy, it does more than merely expose hypocrisy or incompetence; it goes to the heart of an actor’s perceived credibility. Forget slick production or social media—this is Al Qaeda and ISIS’s propaganda trademark. From bin Laden’s frequent assertion that the perpetrators of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings have no right to label him a “terrorist,” to Inspire and Dabiq magazines’ regular claims that Western governments do not afford Muslim citizens the same rights as other citizens, this messaging is designed to expose the West’s say-do gap.

The “information theater” is where perception becomes reality, and Western messaging has tended to be comparatively less adept at leveraging this approach. This has not been helped by events such as the Abu Ghraib revelations and, more recently, an unwillingness to back up “red lines” drawn in Syria. Western counterterrorism messaging would benefit from focusing on tying extremists to the crises experienced by their potential supporter base, highlighting that say-do gap and avoiding futile counter-proselytizing.

Strategic communications campaigns must be devised within the context of strategic policy decisions. Even the best messaging cannot replace “real” policy or action; nor can one assume that action will “speak for itself.” Over three decades ago, President Ronald Reagan’s National Security Decision Directive 75 integrated military, economic and information elements into a wide-ranging strategy designed to catalyze the Soviet Union’s downfall. NSDD 75 and subsequent directives show that the Reagan administration understood the compounding benefits of synchronizing message and action, its force-multiplying effect on the overall campaign and its decisive impact on perceptions of credibility. Current strategies could learn much from this history.

As is the case with most of the struggle against terrorists, the fight is all uphill - the jihadist propaganda machine needs to find only one mind to infiltrate with its call to action while we have to try to counter all such influence.

Like all good guerrilla forces, the jihadists use our strengths (free press, free speech, freedom of religion, freedom in general) as weapons against us in a form of media jujitsu.

The excesses of our society, which we put on full display in print and over the air and in movies, come to dominate the imagery of our country abroad - despite the vast gap between that imagery and the daily reality of our lives.

This lesson is brought home when talking to visitors from overseas who have come to take a look at us. Having seen us through the lens of news ("if it bleeds, it leads"), movies and television (oh, take your pick of the latest "real life" crime films that shows on-going gang warfare and thugs holding their pistols sideways as they blaze away) and the language of our would-be social elites who know exactly what is best for those of us in the "bitter clinger" group, these visitors often are stunned by the far different reality of a genuinely peaceful country with helpful citizens.

Our country is bigger, cleaner, and far more peaceful that they could have known from the sources they have seen.

We have social welfare programs for our poor. We offer free medical care. Our charities are better, bigger and quicker to respond that any massive government program could ever be.

We welcome immigrants who arrive legally (and lots who don't), especially those who seek a better life by learning about those freedoms that make us a great country.

Perhaps it is not odd that those who seem to be most drawn to ISIS-like propaganda appear to be those who cannot learn the tolerance the vast majority of the rest of us are willing to extend to others. Once in that mode, all the negative media they absorb along with the ISIS claptrap sets them up.

ISIS in the Pacific - Homeland Security Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives

Described as:

With ISIS’ continued push to recruit and radicalize around the globe, this hearing will examine the current threat ISIS affiliates and supporters pose to U.S. interests and allies in Southeast Asia. Multiple recent terrorist attacks and public declarations of allegiance by local militant groups, and a growing number of ISIS fighters in Iraq and Syria from the region, demonstrate the potential danger this poses.

It's Almost Like They Have a Plan: "Indiscriminate Russian Bombing in Syria Worsening European Immigration Crisis"

Map source UNHCR

U.S.General in charge of European Command says "Indiscriminate Russian Bombing in Syria Worsening European Immigration Crisis" reports USNI News:

The U.S. senior commander in Europe warned the Senate Armed Services Committee that the Syrian regime’s continued use of barrel bombs and Russia’s use of indiscriminate strikes in backing President Bashar al Assad is exacerbating the European immigration crisis.

Even after an agreement to a cessation of fighting between the Syrian regime and moderate opposition groups “we have not really seen a change in the type of sorties being flown” by the Russians, U.S. European Command commander Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove said.

“We need to see how [the ceasefire] works [because] actions speak louder than words,” he said.

But, “What we have seen is an intense flow [of refugees] into the neighboring countries” such as Jordan and Turkey, as well as Europe, that is continuing even after the ceasefire, Breedlove said later in the hearing.

Breedlove said, “What we have seen growing” in the flow of refugees fleeing Syria and migrants leaving depressed countries in the Middle East and North Africa” are “criminals, terrorists and [returning] foreign fighters” coming into Europe.

Why, it's like Russian might want to destabilize the West or something.

General Breedlove knows this:

Regarding a resurgent Russia, he told the committee Moscow “had chosen to be an adversary,” in part “to re-establish a leading role” for itself on the world stage.

Yep.

Blowing the Middle East Scenario

Small Wars Journal has it in a headline: Obama Claims His Critics Forced Him to Make a Mess of Syria, quoting Jennifer Rubin at the WaPo:

In what surely is the most cringe-worthy excuse offered by a commander-in-chief, President Obama last week complained that his critics — whom he routinely ignored and scorned — forced him to make a mess of Syria. To say it is unbecoming of a president to whine that he was only following what critics told him to do, understates just how dishonest the president is and how morally repugnant is his approach to a war that has claimed more than 200,000 lives, created millions of refugees and provided the Islamic State with a base of operations.

Well, Surprise, Surprise, Surprise.

Air war alone? Not so much, as noted here a year ago:

"Pretty adaptive" ain't going to cut it - the OODA loop is getting away from us because of self-imposed limitations on engagement. Being a "one trick pony" makes it easier on the enemy who gets a vote on how to respond to your threat.

If we are going to "beat" these guys, we need to hear the sound of boots on the ground and see the ISIS logistics flow of people, money and weapons disrupted big time.

Oh, yes, and "cooked intel" designed to give the "boss" what he wants to hear rather than what he needs to hear:

The situation is serious. The term “mass uprising” has been heard in espionage circles and we now know that more than fifty analysts in Tampa, a high percentage of those assessing the Islamic State, have blown the whistle on politically skewed analysis.

Recent reports paint a disturbing picture of a badly distorted intelligence process at CENTCOM headquarters, with senior officers directly pressuring analysts to change their assessments to fit the administration’s optimistic take on the war against the Islamic State. Senior military officers like to toe the official line—you get promoted for “speaking truth to power” in the movies, not in the U.S. military—and clashes with intelligence analysts, especially when they are civilians, are commonplace.

Hmm. I wonder if anyone warned the Boss that the Russians might make a move into Syria? Or was it another "Surprise?"

Take a look at that map above. How many reasons can you see that Russia/Putin might see the advantage of a Russian "friend" in Syria? Warm water port on the Mediterranean? Another border with old rival Turkey?

UPDATE: See Government Report Is Compelling Indictment of Obama’s ISIS Strategy.

Yemen: An Excellent Backgrounder from PBS Frontline

Preview of some excellent reporting by Frontline reporter Safa Al Ahmad

Complete video The Fight for Yemen.

Also this (blurb from Frontline):

The Soufan Group's Ali Soufan, who served in Yemen as an FBI special agent, puts the conflict in Yemen into regional context. The vacuum of power in countries like Yemen, Soufan says, has allowed extremist groups like Al Qaeda and ISIS to gain influence in several countries in the Middle East, North Africa and Asia.

Holy War: Killing Unbelievers, Apostates and Destroying Relics

We go from one act of horror to another.

Shabaab massacres dozens in attack on Kenyan university:

Shabaab terrorists attacked the Garissa University College in Kenya earlier today. Initial reports say that approximately 10 gunmen were involved in assault, which left at least 147 people dead and dozens more wounded.
***
A spokesman for Shabaab, al Qaeda’s official branch in Somalia, said the gunmen deliberately separated Muslims from non-Muslims during the attack. “We sorted people out and released the Muslims,” Sheikh Abdiasis Abu Musab told Reuters.

We see the same sort of thing with ISIS, ISIS video appears to show beheadings of Egyptian Coptic Christians in Libya, Iraq's Christians persecuted by ISIS.

Further, it is not enough, in some cases, to be a Muslim. You have to be the right kind of Muslim - 4 questions ISIS rebels use to tell Sunni from Shia:

Whether a person is a Shia or a Sunni Muslim in Iraq can now be, quite literally, a matter of life and death.

As the militant group the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, has seized vast territories in western and northern Iraq, there have been frequent accounts of fighters' capturing groups of people and releasing the Sunnis while the Shias are singled out for execution.

ISIS believes that the Shias are apostates and must die in order to forge a pure form of Islam.

Ah, the joys of being on the "right" side in a holy war.

Of course, this form of holy war also wants to destroy the past, Priceless Iraqi Artifacts Destroyed by ISIS :

ISIS fighters are destroying symbols of pre-Islamic culture, including artifacts from the Assyrian Empire that are over 2,000 years old.

Should you be surprised by this destruction?

No, you shouldn't. In his book, The Crisis of Islam, Professor Bernard Lewis explained it, non-Islamic history is irrelevant to these holy warriors:

The Muslim peoples, like everyone else in the world, are shaped by their history, but unlike some others, the are keenly aware of it. Their awareness dates however from the advent of Islam, with perhaps some minimal references to pre-Islamic times, necessary to explain historical allusions in the Quar'an and in the early Islamic traditions and chronicles. Islamic history, for Muslims, has an important religious and also legal significance, since it reflects the working our of God's purpose for His community - those that accept the teachings of Islam and obey its law. The history of non-Muslim states and peoples convey no such message and is therefore without value or interest.

What is of no value may be destroyed without qualm.

Obviously, this includes non-believers, believers who are viewed as apostate, and "images" from the past before Islam.

More from Professor Lewis on "Muslim fundamentalists" -

The Muslim fundamentalists, unlike the Protestant groups whose name was transferred to them, do not differ from the mainstream of question of theology and in the interpretation of of scripture. Their critique is, in the broadest sense, societal. The Islamic world, in their view, has taken a wrong turning. ***

Such a perception of straying from the "true path" justifies pretty much anything, since being wrong-headed means you are resisting God's will and that means you are an enemy of "God's army."

"Holy" War. Brought to us by people who prefer a certain black and white clarity to having to deal with shades of gray.

The ultimate "if you aren't with us, you are against us."

Yemen Backgrounder

Nice, short video on the situation in Yemen from the Wall Street Journal:

Here's An Interesting Piracy/ISIS Warning for the Yachts in the Mediterranean

From the Marshall Islands Vessel Registry (hat tip Lars Bergqvist):

YACHT SAFETY ADVISORY YSA-1-15

To: Commercial and Private Yacht Masters, Owners, Yacht Managers, Agents, Classification Societies and Appointed Representatives
Subject: ISIS THREAT TO YACHTS
Date: 23 February 2015
Please be advised that yachts and other shipping in the Mediterranean could come under attack from heavily armed ISIS fighters using speedboats to conduct attacks from the Libyan coast. It is feared that luxury yachts could be singled out as part of a piracy campaign that would threaten shipping from Gibraltar to Greece. ISIS pirates would pose a greater danger than the Somalis who have attacked shipping in the Indian Ocean because they are better armed.

We've seen warnings like this in the past about Somali pirates teaming up with terrorists and al Qaeda taking to the sea.

The ISIS Bandwagon: Afghanistan and Pakistan

Sports fans like to follow a winner and will jump on the bandwagon of a team which appears to be headed for success. Should we be surprised, then, that it appears radical jihadists have a similar psychology?

Our friends at the Long War Journal point to IS footholds in Afghanistan in Mapping the emergence of the Islamic State in Afghanistan:

Ever since disaffected Afghan and Pakistani Taliban insurgents began pledging allegiance to the Islamic State during the summer of 2014, rumors and reports have emerged indicating how the Islamic State has expanded its presence throughout South Asia.
***
In mid-October 2014, a small group of disaffected Pakistani Taliban commanders, including the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan’s Emir for Arakzai Agency, announced their initial pledge to the Islamic State.
***
In January 2015, the same disgruntled Pakistani Taliban leaders, this time joined by a few little-known disaffected Afghan Taliban commanders, published a propaganda video pledging allegiance to the Islamic State. Within days of the video’s release, the Islamic State announced its expansion into “Khorassan Province” and officially appointed Hafiz Saeed Khan as the Wali (Governor) of Khorassan. The Islamic State also appointed former Guantanamo Bay detainee and senior Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Rauf Khadim as Khan’s deputy. While Khan was primarily responsible for Islamic State activities in the tribal areas of Pakistan, Khadim was based in Helmand Province, particularly in his native village located in Kajaki district. It did not take long before clashes broke out between Khadim’s supporters and their rivals belonging to local Taliban factions.

Read the whole piece to catch the full flavor of bandwagon hopping power grabbers who would bend others to their will.

As noted before in these posts, vacuums in power suck in all kinds of stuff before the most potent of the suckees kill off their rivals.

The U.S. and NATO withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan and the feckless approach to Pakistan, Syria and Libya created an enormous vacuum. Like a Saturday morning cowboy movie of my youth, there is little doubt that the innocents will be held ransom by the most violent and ruthless gangs of jihadi wackos. I remember a lot of those movies where a town was held in the grasp of truly awful group of desperadoes until the good guys arrived to rescue them. Generally not a self help issue. Are there "good guys" out there interested in fight a ""holy war?"


Frankly, if the IS thugs take out Taliban thugs I won't miss the Taliban much, except to the extent that such action feeds the IS myth and will convince more radicals to jump on the IS wagon and that means that it raises their threat potential to people and places of importance to the West. See here re Pakistan and IS.

Pretty amazing for a "JV team."

War Against Terrorists: Al Qaeda is back in the news and gets attacked to forestall "imminent attack"

U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Carlos M. Vazquez II

Al Qaeda makes the news again, and gets attacked in Syria, as set out here

Pentagon spokesman Rear Adm. John Kirby confirmed Tuesday that the plotting was far along.

“This is a very dangerous group,” Kirby told Fox News. “We had information, good information that they were very actively plotting and very close to the end of that plotting -- and planning an attack on targets either in Europe or the U.S. homeland.”

As for the result of the airstrikes, he said: “We think we hit what we were aiming at.”

More from the Long War Journal:

The US-led bombing campaign in Syria is targeting the Al Nusrah Front, an official branch of al Qaeda, as well as the Islamic State, an al Qaeda offshoot that is one of Al Nusrah's fiercest rivals.

Before they were launched, the air strikes were framed as being necessary to damage the Islamic State, a jihadist group that has seized large swaths of territory across Syria and Iraq. But in recent days US officials signaled that they were also concerned about al Qaeda's presence in Syria, including the possibility that al Qaeda operatives would seek to use the country as a launching pad for attacks in the West.

Several well-connected online jihadists have posted pictures of the Al Nusrah Front positions struck in the bombings. They also claim that al Qaeda veterans dispatched from Afghanistan to Syria, all of whom were part of Al Nusrah, have been killed.
***
Among the Al Nusrah Front positions targeted in the bombings are locations where members of the so-called "Khorasan group" are thought to be located. Ayman al Zawahiri, the emir of al Qaeda, sent the group to Syria specifically to plan attacks against the US and its interests. The group, which takes its name from al Qaeda's Khorasan shura (or advisory) council, is reportedly led by Muhsin al Fadhli, an experienced al Qaeda operative who has been involved in planning international terrorist attacks for years.

Al Fadhli's presence in Syria was first reported by the Arab Times in March. Shortly thereafter, The Long War Journal confirmed and expanded on this reporting. [See LWJ report, Former head of al Qaeda's network in Iran now operates in Syria.] The Long War Journal reported at the time that al Fadhli's plans "were a significant cause for concern among counterterrorism authorities."

The New York Times reported earlier this month that al Fadhli leads the Khorasan group in Syria.

Unconfirmed reports on jihadist social media sites say that al Fadhli was killed in the bombings. Neither US officials, nor al Qaeda has verified this reporting. The fog of war often makes it difficult to quickly confirm whether an individual jihadist has been killed, wounded, or survived unscathed. Initial reports should be treated with skepticism and there is no firm evidence yet that al Fadhli has been killed.

Read more: here

More on the Al Nusrah Front here:

Al-Nusra Front (also the Nusra Front or Jabhat al-Nusra) was formed in late 2011, when Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) emir Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi sent operative Abu Muhammad al-Julani to Syria to organize jihadist cells in the region. The Nusra Front rose quickly to prominence among rebel organizations in Syria for its reliable supply of arms, funding, and fighters—some from donors abroad, and some from AQI. Considered well trained, professional, and relatively successful on the battlefield, they earned the respect and support of many rebel groups, including some in the secular Free Syrian Army (FSA). However, al-Nusra also made some enemies among the Syrian people and opposition by imposing religious laws, although the group has shied away from the types of brutal executions and sectarian attacks that made AQI unpopular. Al-Nusra was also the first Syrian force to claim responsibility for terrorist attacks that killed civilians. (footnotes omitted)
***
Al-Nusra is affiliated with AQ and has pledged allegiance to the organization, serving as its only official branch in the Syrian conflict after global AQ emir Ayman al-Zawahiri publicly disowned ISIS following months of ISIS disobedience to AQ orders.

So, it's not really that the Al Nusrah Front and the Khorasan group just sprang up - but have been around and have enjoyed the chaos of Syria as providing recruiting and a safe haven.

Until now.

Disposing of ISIS and Preemptive Thoughts

Yes, I know the President is due to speak on this topic, yet again, on the morrow.

Still, before that happens, I strongly suggest that you listen to our last Midrats show featuring Bill Roggio:

Check Out Military Podcasts at Blog Talk Radio with Midrats on BlogTalkRadio

And the one we did with Bill about 4 months before that:

Check Out Military Podcasts at Blog Talk Radio with Midrats on BlogTalkRadio

Somewhere in the more recent episode, it came up that fighting a group like ISIS and its spawn begins, like the journey of a recovering alcoholic, with an admission that you have a problem.

Well, not just a problem - but a problem that is interfering with your life and the lives of the people who depend on you.

My hope for this President is that he truly accepts that fact that ISIS and its ilk (henceforth "ISISI") are a problem that he needs to act on. In other words, that is not a matter of "optics" or "politics" or "my predecessor did it" or one of those "straw men" that his is wont to set up. I would like him to accept the idea that he may not be the "subject matter expert" in fighting ISISI and that he needs to reach out to those who have, by years of experience, gained that expertise. That even if he feels Israel is the source of all problems in the Middle East (it isn't, but he appears to me to feel that way), the solution is not ISISI. That if the Middle East is ready to adjust some borders of countries laid out by long gone empires post-WWI, ISISI is not the path to that. That the slaughter of innocents cannot be justified on the basis of some doctrinal differences between sects or religious groups. That if he can cobble together a coalition, it is one in which the laboring oar is local as much as possible, but with U.S. troops and air power if needed.

The world is a complicated and dangerous place. But we are a part of that - and we cannot pretend it will go away if we say some "magic words" or give a great speech.

                               Facta Non Verba

Killing ISIS 2: What Bing West Says

Bing West has thoughts on how to kill ISIS (a/k/a ISIL) at "How to Defeat ISIL":

U.S. policymakers must commit themselves clearly to containing, disrupting, and defeating it.

You should read the whole thing.

Mr. West makes many good points, but as with solving most problems, the first step is recognizing you have a problem and then choosing a plan of action to eliminate that problem. I have serious doubts about the ability of the Administration and its aiders and abettors in the press to do that with ISIS, because, as Mr. West notes:

If the commander-in-chief does not perceive a mortal threat and if the press grossly underreports the persecution of Christians and other minorities, then the public will see no reason for our military to become heavily involved.

With the Obama administration, nothing is ever what it was or may be in the future. There is no constancy. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel has described the threat in terms of “some of the most brutal, barbaric forces we’ve ever seen in the world today, and a force, ISIL, and others that is an ideology that’s connected to an army, and it’s a force and a dimension that the world has never seen before like we have seen it now.” The Visigoths, Attila, and Tamerlane have a new rival. Obviously this new scourge upon mankind must be destroyed.

But wait: Then Mr. Hagel delivered the punch line. “I recommended to the president, and the president has authorized me, to go ahead and send about 130 new assessment-team members.” Mr. Hagel is holding the rest of our force in reserve in case the Martians attack. One hundred thirty assessors are sufficient to deal with “the most barbaric forces we’ve ever seen.”

It occurs to me that the Administration having charted its course ("withdrawal by date X" and "no U.S. combat forces in country Y"), plods along, adjusting only its portrayal of the facts to rationalize that course. A ship's navigator who failed to alter course to allow for the effects of winds and currents is headed for rocks which cannot be avoided by repeating phrases such as "the plan was to steer 270 degrees and we are on that plan" or "most of the crew likes the course we are on" or "once we steered course 270 and ended up where we were supposed to be."

As noted in Killing ISIS? you need more than an announcement of what you want the end result to be ("We put a bell on the cat!" or ""ISIS must be destroyed") to make things happen. If the U.S. goal is to kill ISIS, then the planners better be put to work to use the tools available to make that happen. If it requires U.S. combat ground forces to cut off the ISIS logistics train - well, conditions on the ground have changed since there were promises made to withdraw our forces from Iraq. The Administration can blame it on unexpected ocean currents or winds or on the way the world works - as in the way bad guys tend to rush in to fill vacuums of power.