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U.S. Navy Office of Naval Intelligence Worldwide Threat to Shipping (WTS) Report, 9 March to 6 April 2022

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U.S. Navy Office of Naval Intelligence Worldwide Threat to Shipping (WTS) Report, 2 to 30 March 2022

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U.S. Navy Office of Naval Intelligence Worldwide Threat to Shipping (WTS) Report, 2 February to 2 March 2022

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Dear Vlad: Nice goat rope you've got going

Well, I'm sure your closest friend - if you had one - wouldn't be telling you about the absolute goat rope you've got going - but since I am not your friend, let me say a couple of things about the mess you've made.

Oh, a "goat rope" is commonly used in the U.S. military to describe a disaster in the making - usually a self-made disaster. Like the one you've got going right now.

I mean you probably were thinking that your "topnotch" Russian army would roll up Ukraine in a hour or so, because you felt in yuor bones that the Ukranians were tired of what freedom they had and would love to get back into the embrace of Mother Russia. That was a bad premise on which to try a snappy invasion.

You probably also thought that the Russian army was a powerful tool. News flash, that was another bad premise. It's a blunt instrument at best, and the world is watching it try to bludgeon its way to victory. Any hope of a clean sweep of the adjoining country - like say the alllied forces did in Kuwait/Iraq back in Guf War I - was screwed from the start. Boy Scout troops have had more impressive beginnings to long hikes, even when little Jimmy Smith forgot to bring a canteen and decided his Sunday going to church shoes were better than hiking shoes.

So now what, have you got enough stuff to turn your invasion into a multi-week smashing of a country the size of Texas? You think threatening the rest of the world with "severe sanctions" will stop the flow of equipment to the Ukranians? You've already played the nuclear weapon card - and pushed more countries into looking to join NATO. Frankly, you look a little desperate there, Vlad.

Of course, given the FUBAR logistics that you've got going, maybe that's a way of buying time to regroup. Of course, when this thing becomes even more of a "crime against humanity" and your slaughter of people whose country you invaded - and don't hand me that guff about giving "plenty of warning" - do you honestly think the rest of the world will sit on their hands? We already see folks wanting to take a whack at you ridiculously long road march convoys. One A-10 or Tornado could stop that gaggle in a heart beat.

By the way, how's troop morale? Anxious are they to spend years trying to subdue a restive population? Share your vision of "putting the empire back together," do they?

Have to be curious about the message you are sending to your erstwhile "ally" the PRC - are they seeing the great Russian army like the rest of us? I wonder if someone sitting in a command cell in Beijing isn't thinking about how quickly they could liberate some of those territories in the eastern part of Russia that used to be Chinese and which are full of oil, gas, and other riches. I'm pretty sure they're not quaking in their boots in dread of the Russian army driving its way eastward to stop them, should they choose to move that way.

So now what? Going to bring in your mercenaries to assassinate the Ukrainian leadership? You must have missed that Star Wars episode about making someone more powerful by striking him down. Legends and martyrs, Vlad, very powerful stuff.

What next? Going after Elon Musk because his little satellites are working to defeat Russian information dominance? Sad, Vlad, sad.

Oh, and thanks for uniting Europe against you. Several America presidents have been warning them not to get too comfortable about Russia, but it was you who finally got their attention. Nice job.

Not having crystal ball I don't know what will happent next. But I have pretty good idea that at some point you are going to have to pay the piper. If you win against Ukraine, you might as well rename yourself "Pyrrhus."

Now, like some Ukrainian warriors, let me sign off with this: GFY!

Ukraine and CDR Salamander's Comments

Better that you read this than any of my meanderings Second Russo-Ukraine War D+0 Quicklook

Remember, the Russians hold the Presidency of the UN Security Council. The UN is a joke. OSCE is a joke. The EU is little more than a nest of rent-seeking, clock-watching grift-fest. NATO is, well, dysfunctional but better than nothing. Nations must take ownership of their own security. Yes, Taiwan and Japan I am talking to you. Study history. Be ready.

***

Is everyone clear what Russia is now? She has a small GDP and apocalyptic demographics, but she is taking what she has and is invading her neighbors, killing people, and taking land. If your nation, company, or neighbor is buying anything from them – they are paying for this military adventurism. If the press wants to do its job, start pulling that string.

The U.S. needs to restart its energy independence efforts and reverse the course of what the current administration has done so that we can offer Europe energy security and cut the flow of energy dollors and Euros to the thugs in Moscowland.

As Mao said, "Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun." Putin is seeking political power, not only over Ukraine, but over Western Europe. His approach is not subtle diplomacy.

On Midrats 2 December 2018 - Episode 465: Russian, Ukraine, and the Challenge for the West, with Emma Ashford

Please join us at 5pm EST on 2 December 2018 for Midrats Episode 465: Russian, Ukraine, and the Challenge for the West, with Emma Ashford

The latest incident at the Kerch Strait was just the latest turn of the

ratchet in the long-running efforts of Russia against Ukraine.

This slow rolling conflict has a variety of different paths it can head from here, and few of them are good for the stability of Russia, Ukraine, the EU, NATO or the United States.

What is the latest state of play and the bold-faced items we should be watching?

Our guest to discuss this and more will be Emma Ashford.

Emma is a Research Fellow in Defense and Foreign Policy at the Cato Institute. She is currently writing a book on the links between oil, foreign policy and war, focusing on the peculiar politics of petrostates, from Russia to Saudi Arabia, and Iran to Venezuela. She holds a Ph.D. from the University of Virginia.

If you can't listen at the regular time, you can pick the show up later by clicking here. Or you can also pick the show up later by visiting either our iTunes page or our Stitcher page.

Fun with Russia: Ukraine Proposal - Danube River Exclusion of Russian Shipping Due to "Terrorism Threat"

Reported as Ukraine Threatens to Block Russian Shipping on the Danube

Yury Lavrenyuk, Ukraine’s deputy infrastructure minister, announced that his agency had “appealed to the National Security and Defense Council regarding the prohibition of the entrance of Russian ships into the domestic waterways of Ukraine because of the high level of terrorist threats” such ships allegedly present. Allowing such ships to pass, he said “is impermissible” because there is “critical infrastructure” along such waterways. His words drew support from other Ukrainian ministries and agencies.
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In response to Moscow’s threat to bottle up Ukrainian shipping within the shared Azov Sea, the Ukrainian government is currently considering a plan to block Russia’s use of the Danube River. Ukraine’s infrastructure ministry has proposed closing to all Russian shipping the canal in the extreme southeast border region of Ukraine, which vessels use to pass the Danube delta, from the Black Sea to the upstream Danube proper. Such an action would affect relatively small numbers of ships. Nonetheless, Russian officials are clearly worried it could reduce their ability to supply countries in the Balkans. At present, however, the possibility of such a ban is only a threat. And it is likely part of a complex implicit negotiation between Kyiv and Moscow about free passage through the Kerch Strait, across which Russia is building a bridge to occupied Crimea (see EDM, February 12, 22), and about the use of ports in that occupied Ukrainian peninsula by Russian shipping.

About the Azoz Sea threat, see Jamestown Foundation's Paul Goble's Russian Navy Preparing to Bottle up Ukrainian Shipping in Sea of Azov:

From Moscow’s point of view, its loss of control over much of the Black Sea littoral and ports as a result of the disintegration of the Soviet Union is a serious problem, one that Russian moves first in Abkhazia and then in Crimea were intended to help solve. Indeed, even before the Crimean annexation in 2014, Russian commentators talked about depriving Ukraine of its access to the sea by creating a new “Novorossiya” state that would extend to the borders of Moldova and possibly even include Transnistria .... Now, in the wake of Ukraine’s seizure of two vessels for violating its territorial waters (see below), Moscow officials are openly suggesting that the Russian Navy could limit or even block the transit of Ukrainian ships, civilian and military, through the Kerch Straits. This would effectively make the Sea of Azov an internal Russian waterway, something officials in Moscow had hinted at in the past, in discussions about the supposed need to defend President Vladimir Putin’s Crimea bridge from attack ..
****
On March 25, the Ukrainian border guard service detained the Russian-flagged fishing vessel Nord, which was operating in Ukrainian waters, in the Sea of Azov. The boat, registered in Crimea, and its ten crew members were escorted to the Azov Sea port of Berdiansk (Dpsu.gov.ua, March 26). They are currently awaiting trial in Ukraine. Then, on April 10, Ukrainian authorities arrested a Russian dredger ship, temporarily docked in the Odessa-region port of Yuzhny, for allegedly carrying out illegal sand extraction works in occupied Crimea (TASS, April 10).

So much fun, so much positioning.

On the map, circle to the left is the Danube area and the one to the right is the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait.

A Reset of the "Cold War?"

Watching CNN this morning (and was there ever a more confusing mess of news than that at CNN?) and Professor Stephen Cohen was on, warning of the dangers of the new world order left in the wake of the out-going administration and the bow wake of the arrival of the current administration. As I understood the Prof, we're on the brink of a crisis on par with the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 and things are serious indeed.

This is not a drum that Dr. Cohen just started beating, either, as can be seen in this CNN interview from back in December 2016:



It should be noted that Dr. Cohen is a contributor to The Nation and has a book out on Russian-U.S. relations, Why Cold War Again?: How America Lost Post-Soviet Russia :

The new East-West conflict, which broke out over the Ukrainian crisis

in 2014, but which long predated it and soon spread through Europe and to the Middle East, is potentially the worst US-Russian confrontation in more than fifty years― and the most fateful. A negotiated resolution is possible, but time may be running out. In this book, renowned Russia scholar and media commentator Stephen F. Cohen traces the history of this East-West relationship in the 'Inter Cold War' period― the years from the purported end of the preceding Cold War, in 1990-1991, to what he has long argued would be a new and even more dangerous Cold War.

Which is pretty much what he said this morning.

Sec State Tillerson is visiting Russia. I hope plain speaking and an understanding of Putin's remarkably weak position helps defuse this mess.

Finger pointing on the Syria debacle seems to be a thing on right and left. See Syria Will Stain Obama’s Legacy Forever from Foreign Policy and Obama’s Disastrous Syria Policy from National Review.

Can the genie be put back in the bottle? I don't know, Russia seems to have only a couple of friends in the world, and Assad of Syria appears to be one of them. AND there is that warm water port.

Iran has hopped on the anti-U.S. band wagon (with "red line warnings"), which was a short hop indeed, given their view of the Great Satan. If I were they, I'd be more worried about the regime to their north, but that might just be me.

In any event, I am less concerned about a "cold" war than a "hot" one stumbled into like WWI, the results of which, by the way, still haunt the Middle East. See A century on: Why Arabs resent Sykes-Picot:

The borders of the Middle East were drawn during World War I by a

Briton, Mark Sykes, and a Frenchman, Francois Picot.

The two diplomats' pencils divided the map of one of the most volatile regions in the world into states that cut through ethnic and religious communities.

Later dubbed the Sykes-Picot treaty, the secret agreement was signed by Paris and London on May 16, 1916, to become the basis on which the Levant region was shaped for years to come.

A century on, the Middle East continues to bear the consequences of the treaty, and many Arabs across the region continue to blame the subsequent violence in the Middle East, from the occupation of Palestine to the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), on the Sykes-Picot treaty.

Also here.

Of course, there is also Ukraine, Crimea and the threat to the Baltic NATO countries.

May we live in interesting times.

The New Domino Theory: Assisting Ukraine May Cause Russia to Help China Take Control Over the South China Sea Region

There is this National Interest piece by Harry J. Kazianis, "Russia Could Make China King of the South China Sea"

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Events thousands of miles away in Ukraine could set off a chain reaction that could see China become the undisputed ruler of this large body of water thanks to a large infusion of Russian weapons and technology— if the West starts arming Ukraine.
***
Imagine this scenario: The West decides that it is time to arm Ukraine. Russia decides it needs to strike back— and not just in Europe. President Putin pulls out his map of the globe and looks for a place where Russian power would best stick it to the United States. His eyes light up on the one area that could not only strengthen ties with a potential partner but do real damage to America’s efforts to “pivot” to that part of the world: the South China Sea.
***
While Russia might not be a superpower anymore, it does have the power to create lots of havoc for the United States and its allies all over the world. Such moves would then see the West again look to strike back at Moscow, creating a dangerous dynamic that would see the conditions ripe for a new Cold War that is in no ones national interest. This is all the more reason for all parties concerned when it comes to Ukraine to find a political settlement to the crisis.

So, under this new "domino theory" (for info on the old "domino theory" see here), the inter-connectedness of the former "communist" (read complete dictatorships) countries would allow Putin to "send a message" to the U.S. by agreeing to sell very modern arms to China, which can then use those to cement its position  as regional hegemonic demon over the South China Sea region. That is, unless, of course, the West agrees to cede all or part of Czechoslovakia Ukraine to Hitler Putin in some sort of "political settlement." We know from history how well such appeasement agreements have work out. See Munich Pact, for example.

However, the argument is that failure to give up bits and pieces of Ukraine will cause Putin to knock over a domino piece elsewhere, most specifically the China piece.

But, isn't China doing just fine without agreeing to buy more Russian equipment? What with stolen plans, weak sister neighbors and a somewhat flaccid U.S. response so far to it bullying and island grabs, what does it need Russia for?

If I were Putin and I was looking at arming China, I'd be worried about my resource rich eastern areas that are so very close to China and its
area of influence. A Chinese "invasion" of Siberia has been discussed for some time and also discounted (oddly, both linked articles look at demographics to make their cases).

Frankly, if the information on some number of Chinese emigrating to Siberia is true (and perhaps even if is not) Putin has, through his assertions of "protecting ethnic Russians" in his Ukraine push, provided the Chinese with an argument to take action in Siberia to protect "ethnic Chinese." I imagine someone in the U.S. world of think tanks might be looking at how a signal to the Chinese about such an action might be viewed by the West if Putin pushes harder in the west.

Further, there is this interesting look at U.S.-China relations from a former U.S. Seventh Fleet commander in this U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings opinion piece, "Storm Warnings?":

• According to The Washington Post , China has increased its use of oil at the average pace of 6–7 percent a year since 1990—more than 20 straight years! At this pace, the PRC will catch the U.S. rate of petroleum usage in just over 20 more years.

• By 2020, China is expected to import 7.3 million barrels of crude oil per day—one half of Saudi Arabia’s planned output, as reported in Foreign Affairs . By way of comparison, today the Chinese import 4.7 million barrels per day and the United States about 9.7 million.

• A recent article in the International Herald Tribune states the PRC is preparing to build three times as many nuclear power plants in the coming decade as the rest of the world. However, electrical demand is growing so rapidly in the PRC that even if that happens, they will generate only 9.7 percent of the country’s power.

• According to National Geographic Magazine , today China produces and consumes nearly one third of the world’s steel, more than long-time industrial powers Japan, Germany, and the United States combined.

• David Hale Global Economics indicates that China now consumes 25 percent of Australia’s exports, up from 12 percent just two years previously, and has invested $44 billion in Australia since 2007.

• According to the South China Morning Post , while the PRC accounts for more than 20 percent of the world’s population, it has only 7 percent of the world’s fresh water, and its vast system of 87,000 reservoirs is not in the best of shape; 43 percent are said to be in poor condition.

All of this is to say that China is facing serious natural-resource challenges, including the need to import an ever-increasing amount of raw materials.

VADM Crowder notes that these external resource dependencies would support a strong blue water navy to protect China's sea lines of communication.

Admiral Crowder makes several excellent points in the piece, not the least of which is the need for some plain speaking on the part of the U.S.:

In fact, if the United States were a lot more transparent about its concerns in the region with regard to China, it could probably reach a glide path that moves more toward cooperation than confrontation. But until the Chinese show us by their words, and more important, their deeds, that their naval buildup is not about coercing the nations of the region—particularly over resources—then we have to be capable of making such an outcome, quite simply, not worth the risk.

On the other hand, if there truly are vast resources of oil, gas, and iron just sitting outside China's border with Russia . . . and exploiting those resources would not require the use of vulnerable sea lanes . . . well, I suspect there are Chinese operation plans on just how grabbing a big chunk of Russia's "far east" might happen, especially if Putin gets Russian forces heavily engaged in the west.

The point is that while Putin might be tempted to tip some dominoes, he really needs to be very careful. The West/U.S. does not need to cede anything at all because it has its own domino strings to push.

U.S. Response to Putin: Clowns to the Left, Jokers to the Right

You may have read my suggested response to Russia's Putin in the Ukraine Russia in the Ukraine: 90 day eviction notice, but if you missed The DiploMad 2.0: Cage Fighter vs. Pajama Boy; Putin Confronts the West, then you need to head over there right now:

Let's just say that we have on our hands a New Old Russia. Blah, blah, wishes, and pink unicorns will not cut it. On paper, Russia is not strong compared to the West. The West should be able to handle Russia relatively easily. Russia, however, has one big advantage. Russia has leadership, a determined leadership not afraid to make decisions and act. That compensates for several orders of economic and technological inferiority. The West has, well, you know what the West has, and it ain't good.

My emphasis. Somehow I don't think the Diplomad feels all warm and fuzzy about the West's "leaders."

Let's go over some suggestions:

1. Work to make sure Western Europe has alternatives to Russian natural gas. This would include exports of LNG from the U.S., restarting nuclear power plants, get fracking going in Poland and other locales where it might be profitiable.
2.  Put some real U.S. forces (101 and 82 Airborne) on the continent. Call it an "exercise" if you want. Have them "visit" NATO countries bordering Ukraine.
3.  Put a frigging ESG group in the Eastern Med, fully loaded. 
4. Dig up those "useless" A-10's and conduct an exercise with, oh, say Romania. 
5. Grow a pair.

And get over the vapors.

Russia in the Ukraine: 90 day eviction notice

Dear Mr. Putin:

In the next 30 days, unless your military forces now in the Ukraine and Crimea return to the status quo ante, the United States of America will do everything it can to shut off all aspects of your economic activity with the rest of the world.

Starting in 7 days, all assets of Russian citizens in the U.S. will be frozen pending some indication of Russian intentions.

U.S. citizens and businesses doing business or living in Russia are being asked to leave Russia or get to the American embassy as soon as is possible.

Starting in 5 days, any Russian flagged or owned merchant ships will be refused entry into U.S. ports.

The U.S. will recommend to the countries through which Russian natural gas pipelines
are routed that those pipelines be closed for "safety inspections" as soon as is practicable.

As this letter is being written, I am communicating with U.S. and allied natural gas companies about their ability to:

1. Export LNG to Europe and other areas now served by Russian gas pipeline.
2. Export fracking technology teams to promising areas of development in Europe, especially Poland.
3. Establish emergency natural gas pipelines from those fracking areas into the main distribution systems of Europe.

Pursuant to standing NATO commitments, I am ordering various elements of the U.S. military to be ready to deploy to Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Latvia, or Lithuania should any their governments request security assistance (see here).  Air elements, including airborne troops and U.S. Marines and U.S. Navy amphibious units are on notice to prepare for rapid deployment. U.S. naval units will also be dispatched to the eastern Mediterranean.

If U.S. forces are deployed, there should be no doubt in your mind that assistance will be provided to the people of the Ukraine should it be necessary.

We remain in consultation with our allies throughout the world.


The next step is up to you.

With all due respect,

xxxxx

Naval Presence That Drones Can't Match: "Russian navy vessel at Crimea's Port of Balaklava"

Okay, for those who have spouted the "drones for presence" line of hooey, tell me how a drone could match this naval presence, as reported by the BBC "Russian navy vessel at Crimea's Port of Balaklava".


For those of you who have forgotten, Crimea is part of the county of Ukraine, not Russia.

Tarantul-III class corvette of the type off Balaklava

UPDATE: More context from a 1993 map:

UK Rules for Private Armed Guards on British Merchant Shipping Revealed

Rules and concerns expressed here:

The guidelines stipulate that ship owners should include certain factors in a risk assessment motivate for selecting a private security company (PSC). Shipping companies wishing to use armed guards will also be required to submit a detailed counter-piracy plan to the UK Department for Transport in advance.

No word on the number of bullets that will be allowed each armed guard - Barney "One Bullet" Fife or Rambo-style.

Based on recent events in India, as reported here, a strict count of bullets might be important.

Rambo may have trouble with that.

Somali Pirates: Ukranian Flying Boats to Join Anti-Piracy Force

Ukranian BE-12 (wheels down)

Reported at Bruxelles2 (translation by Google Translate):

Ukraine has announced its intention to send a brigade of a Be-12 aircraft of Saki for maritime surveillance operation in the naval anti-piracy operation EU (Atalanta) beginning in 2012. Military experts from the EU and the Ukrainian navy have discussed preparations for the operation. These include the provision of aircraft equipment (communications, liaison with the headquarters) and logistical support crews. A Ukrainian officer was seconded from November to the General Staff of the Atalanta. The President had signed in February Yanukovic the mission order. Ukrainian participation was announced on several occasions for almost 2 years. And it may seem close to a concrete solution.

Be-12 Waterborne

Be-12's are old Soviet maritime patrol aircraft (NATO name "Mail").

More here:

Ukraine intends to send an amphibious aircraft Be-12 from the Saki marine air brigade of the Armed Forces' Air Force to take part in the European Union naval operation to fight sea piracy, Atalanta, from 2012, reads a statement made by the Defence Ministry press service.

In course of a meeting of the EU and the Ukrainian Naval Air Force military experts in Sevastopol they discussed preparation of the Be-12 aircraft and its crew for participation in this operation.

In particular, they discussed the issues of equipping the plane with state-of-the-art navigation and communication means, and also all-out logistic support to the Ukrainian marine aircraft pilots.

Foreign military experts also got a possibility to learn about technical and combat capabilities of Be-12 aircraft in service at the Saki marine air brigade.

Somali Pirates: Reports of Hijacked Ship

Beluga Nomination

Reports of a ship being hijacked off the Seychelles: Somali pirates seize ship carrying Ukrainians:

Somali pirates have seized a vessel carrying 12 sailors including Ukrainians, Filipinos, Poles and Russians in the Indian Ocean, Ukraine's foreign ministry said on Monday.

The German-owned MV Beluga Nomination was captured 100 kilometres (62 miles) off the Seychelles, a ministry statement said, but it did not indicate the number of nationals from each country.

See also here.

The ship is a 12,500DWT cargo ship. See here. More on the ship here at its operators site.