"We must be ready to dare all for our country. For history does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or the timid. We must acquire proficiency in defense and display stamina in purpose." - President Eisenhower, First Inaugural Address
An oil tanker off Saudi Arabia's port city of Jiddah suffered an explosion early Monday after being hit by “an external source,” a shipping company said, suggesting another vessel has come under attack off the kingdom amid its yearslong war in Yemen.
The attack on the Singapore-flagged BW Rhine, which had been contracted by the trading arm of the kingdom's massive Saudi Arabian Oil Co., marks the fourth assault targeting Saudi energy infrastructure in a month.
It also apparently shut down Jiddah port, the most important shipping point for the kingdom, which later said a bomb-laden boat like the remote-controlled ones used by Yemen's Houthi rebels caused the explosion.
An oil tanker came under attack while at a Saudi Arabian terminal in the Red Sea about 125 miles north of the country’s border with Yemen, according to the vessel’s owner.
The Agrari, a so-called Aframax-class vessel able to haul about 700,000 barrels of oil, was holed about 1 meter above the waterline in the incident, a statement distributed on behalf of the carrier’s owner said. The incident took place as the ship was preparing to leave a berth at the Shuqaiq facility, having finished unloading its cargo, it said.
***
“There’s definitely an uptick of attacks from the Yemen side of the border onto Saudi Arabia to try and attempt to send a signal that it’s not just in the Strait of Hormuz and in the Persian Gulf that Iran has the ability to undermine Saudi oil interests and naval activities,” said Ayham Kamel, head of Middle East and North Africa at Eurasia Group, which advises clients on political risk.
More information from the International Business Times here:
The blast on the Maltese-flagged Agrari tanker follows a string of attacks by the Iran-linked rebels on Saudi oil infrastructure, highlighting the growing perils of a five-year military campaign led by the kingdom in Yemen.
The tanker was "attacked by an unknown source" while it was preparing to depart from the Red Sea port of Shuqaiq, its Greece-based operator TMS Tankers said, adding that no injuries were reported.
"The Agrari was struck about one meter above the waterline and has suffered a breach," TMS Tankers said in a statement.
"It has been confirmed that the crew are safe and there have been no injuries. No pollution has been reported."
***
But Wednesday's incident comes as the Iran-backed rebels step up attacks on neighbouring Saudi Arabia in retaliation for the Saudi-led military campaign in Yemen.
On Monday, the Huthi rebels said they struck a plant operated by energy giant Saudi Aramco in the western city of Jeddah with a Quds-2 missile.
The strike, which underscores the vulnerability of Saudi Arabia's infrastructure and the rebel's advancing arsenal, tore a hole in the roof of an oil tank, triggering an explosion and fire.
Earlier this month, a fire broke out at a Saudi oil terminal off the southern province of Jizan after two explosives-laden boats launched by the rebels were intercepted by the coalition, according to the kingdom's energy ministry.
On Tuesday, the coalition said it had destroyed five naval mines planted by the Huthis in the southern Red Sea, saying such tactics posed a "serious threat to maritime security".
Saudi Arabia has repeatedly accused Iran of supplying sophisticated weapons to the Huthis, a charge Tehran denies.
Saudi Arabia is stuck in a military quagmire in Yemen, which has been locked in conflict since Huthi rebels took control of the capital Sanaa in 2014 and went on to seize much of the north.
The Saudi-led coalition intervened the following year to support the internationally recognised government, but the conflict that has shown no signs of abating.
For years here, I have been praising the concept of energy independence for the United States (see, e.g. Energy Wars: Fracking Our Way Ahead):
It's interesting that people who have previously argued that we should not fight "wars for oil" in our own national interest are willing (1) to commit our national forces and dollars to possibly fighting "wars for oil" for the interests of other countries and (2) that people who who are opposed to U.S. fracking on environmental grounds seem to be totally okay with the status quo of pushing environmental damage off to those second and third world countries who are resource rich but not in the protesters back yards - and condemning others in the world to be dependent on the whims of leaders in Russia and other undemocratic countries. *** It also behooves Europe and Japan that the U.S., Canada and Mexico develop LNG export facilities to allow the export of natural gas to offset the Russian and Iranian power in using the "oil and gas weapon" against Europe. The U.S. government should be encouraging U.S. companies to help Poland to explore its shale gas reserves as an offset to the Russians. While the estimated levels of Polish shale gas are fluctuating, there is gas there and it is both Polish and European interests to develop it. It's not just the U.S. that has the potential to be "sitting pretty" as a result of the the shale boom.
You don't want to fight Iran for attacking Saudi Arabia?
Fine, continue to use the our oil and gas production to continue to inflict economic damage on the Iranians - our crude and NG is perfectly fungible for what Iran produces. The world will little note nor long remember what Iran and its surrogates are trying to do by disrupting the energy flow from the Arabian Gulf. Iran has gone to this well before, but this time the world has moved on from total reliance on Middle East oil and gas. The U.S. can be entirely energy independent of the Middle East.
In fact, it occurs to me that without the infusion of cash from the Obama Administration's Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) deal with Iran, Iran would be soon be running on empty.
It is also worth noting that due to the wonders of its socialist dictatorship, Venezuela's oil production is not really a factor in the world market right now. If that situation could be reversed, the importance of Middle East energy supplies diminishes even further.
We just need to ride this out.
Oh, and build more nuclear power plants.
In the meantime, it seems demand for product is on a downward trend:
On Sunday, Saudi Arabia's navy reported that it had destroyed two remote-controlled, explosives-filled vessels that were targeting the port of Jizan (Jazan). According to Saudi coalition spokesman Col. Turki Al-Maliki, the Saudi Navy detected the boats approaching in series, one at 0450 hours and one at 0505 on Sunday morning. They were under remote control and were rigged with explosives, he reported. Saudi forces intercepted and destroyed the vessels. *** State-owned oil company Saudi Aramco is building a large refinery and marine terminal complex at Jizan, and it is scheduled to be finished later this year. Houthi forces attempted to attack a product terminal at Jizan with a bomb boat once before, in April 2017. That attack was not reportedly successful. A similar Houthi attack on a Saudi frigate in January 2017 resulted in hull damage and the death of two Saudi sailors. Over the past year, Saudi forces have reported intercepting multiple Houthi drone boat attacks, including a series of attempted strikes on merchant vessels in August and September.
American intelligence analysts believe that Iran is supplying the technology needed for the Houthi "bomb boats," along with many other smuggled weapons systems, from AK-47s to small ballistic missiles.
I got to thinking about a discussion we had as part of Midrats yesterday in which we talked about the attack on a Saudi frigate in the Red Sea by some sort of high speed boat or something. I think it began about the 10:09 point.
In any event, today I took the opportunity to closely examine the Saudi video of the attack -
As I viewed the video I noted what appears to be the bow of the attack vessel appearing out of the sea spray. In the screen shot of the video, I've circled the area and placed an arrow pointing at what I believe to be the bow.
That got me thinking about an Iranian video of an alleged "drone" boat attack on a mock up of a U.S. aircraft carrier from a couple of years ago:
Now, the North Koreans have a plethora of small fast semi-submersible craft - at least one version of which has been seen in Iranian hands:
First, from NOSI, a look at such a vessel in NORK yards:
Finally, one of those critters bobbing along with the Iranian fleet:
If I were an Iranian naval or IRGC officer and I had a cool toy, I might want to try it out somewhere against an enemy - not the "A" team probably but perhaps against the "SA" team. So I wonder - was this an application of something akin to what they used in that practice/publicity attack on the fake carrier? Or was this some sort of hybrid attack using something like that Taedong B semi-submersible or one of its ilk?
Or did they steal someone's ski boat?
Given the amount of spray around the attack boat, I have an inclination toward some sort of semi-submersible whose bow came out of the water when it hit the frigates bow wake, but I am open to suggestions.
Things are pretty much a mess in Yemen as various Shiite and Sunni groups attempt to push the others around in order to gain control of key areas of Yemen. Pretty good explanation from the BBC of Yemen crisis: Who is fighting whom?:
The main fight is between forces loyal to the beleaguered President, Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, and those allied to Zaidi Shia rebels known as Houthis, who forced Mr Hadi to flee the capital Sanaa in February. {2015} *** Yemen's security forces have split loyalties, with some units backing Mr Hadi, and others the Houthis and Mr Hadi's predecessor Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has remained politically influential. Mr Hadi is also supported in the predominantly Sunni south of the country by militia known as Popular Resistance Committees and local tribesmen. Both President Hadi and the Houthis are opposed by al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which has staged numerous deadly attacks from its strongholds in the south and south-east. The picture is further complicated by the emergence in late 2014 of a Yemen affiliate of the jihadist group Islamic State, which seeks to eclipse AQAP and claims it carried out a series of suicide bombings in Sanaa in March 2015. After rebel forces closed in on the president's southern stronghold of Aden in late March, a coalition led by Saudi Arabia responded to a request by Mr Hadi to intervene and launched air strikes on Houthi targets. The coalition comprises five Gulf Arab states and Jordan, Egypt, Morocco and Sudan. *** The conflict between the Houthis and the elected government is also seen as part of a regional power struggle between Shia-ruled Iran and Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia, which shares a long border with Yemen. Gulf Arab states have accused Iran of backing the Houthis financially and militarily, though Iran has denied this, and they are themselves backers of President Hadi. Yemen is strategically important because it sits on the Bab al-Mandab strait, a narrow waterway linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, through which much of the world's oil shipments pass. Egypt and Saudi Arabia fear a Houthi takeover would threaten free passage through the strait.
If you feel you need a scorecard to keep track, you are not alone.
But focus on this - Iran is Saudi Arabia's enemy.
Iran would like to control the Saudi outflow of oil. It can do so by shutting down Saudi access through the Strait of Hormuz except that the Saudi's can also export oil from their west coast on the Red Sea and ship it through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. If the Iranian surrogate Houthis can gain control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait then Iran could, effectively, throttle Saudi oil flow.
The chokepoint situation had been discussed here many time, but the U.S.Energy Information Administration has a great site, World Oil Transit Chokepoints which lays these routes out well:
World chokepoints for maritime transit of oil are a critical part of global energy security. About 63% of the world's oil production moves on maritime routes. The Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca are the world's most important strategic chokepoints by volume of oil transit. *** The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important chokepoint with an oil flow of
17 million barrels per day in 2013, about 30% of all seaborne-traded oil. Located between Oman and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint because of its daily oil flow of 17 million barrels per day in 2013. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz in 2013 were about 30% of all seaborne-traded oil. EIA estimates that more than 85% of the crude oil that moved through this chokepoint went to Asian markets, based on data from Lloyd's List Intelligence tanker tracking service.6 Japan, India, South Korea, and China are the largest destinations for oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz. *** At its narrowest point, the Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide, but the width of the shipping lane in either direction is only two miles wide, separated by a two-mile buffer zone. The Strait of Hormuz is deep and wide enough to handle the world's largest crude oil tankers, with about two-thirds of oil shipments carried by tankers in excess of 150,000 deadweight tons. *** Pipelines available as bypass options Most potential options to bypass Hormuz are currently not operational. Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) presently have pipelines able to ship crude oil outside of the Persian Gulf and have additional pipeline capacity to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz. At the end of 2013, the total available unused pipeline capacity from the two countries combined was approximately 4.3 million bbl/d (see Table 2). Saudi Arabia has the 746-mile Petroline, also known as the East-West Pipeline, which runs across Saudi Arabia from its Abqaiq complex to the Red Sea. The Petroline system consists of two pipelines with a total nameplate (installed) capacity of about 4.8 million bbl/d. The 56-inch pipeline has a nameplate capacity of 3 million bbl/d, and its current throughput is about 2 million bbl/d. The 48-inch pipeline had been operating in recent years as a natural gas pipeline, but Saudi Arabia converted it back to an oil pipeline. The switch increased Saudi Arabia's spare oil pipeline capacity to bypass the Strait of Hormuz from 1 million bbl/d to 2.8 million bbl/d, but this is only achievable if the system operates at its full nameplate capacity. Saudi Arabia also operates the Abqaiq-Yanbu natural gas liquids pipeline, which has a capacity of 290,000 bbl/d. However, this pipeline is currently running at capacity and cannot move any additional oil. The UAE operates the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (1.5 million bbl/d) that runs from Habshan, a collection point for Abu Dhabi's onshore oil fields, to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, allowing crude oil shipments to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz. The pipeline can transport more than half of UAE's total net oil exports. The government plans to increase this capacity in the near future to 1.8 million bbl/d. *** Suez Canal The Suez Canal is located in Egypt and connects the Red Sea and Gulf of Suez with the Mediterranean Sea. In 2013, total petroleum and other liquids (crude oil and refined products) and LNG accounted for 20% and 3% of total Suez cargoes, measured by cargo tonnage, respectively. The Suez Canal is unable to handle Ultra Large Crude Carriers (ULCC) and fully laden Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) class crude oil tankers. The Suezmax was the largest ship capable of navigating through the canal until 2010 when the Suez Canal Authority extended the canal depth to 66 feet to allow more than 60% of all tankers to use the Suez Canal, according to the Suez Canal Authority.15 In 2013, nearly 3.2 million bbl/d of total oil (crude oil and refined products) transited the Suez Canal in both directions, according to the Suez Canal Authority. This is the largest amount ever shipped through the Suez Canal. The majority of the oil was sent northbound (1.9 million bbl/d) toward European and North American markets, and the remainder was sent southbound (1.3 million bbl/d), mainly toward Asian markets. Oil exports from Persian Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Oman, Qatar, and Bahrain) accounted for 79% of Suez Canal northbound oil flows. The largest importers of northbound oil flows through the Suez Canal in 2013 were European countries (68%) and the United States (16%). Oil exports from European countries made up the majority (66%) of Suez southbound oil flows, followed by North Africa (Algeria and Libya combined made up 16%). The largest importers of Suez southbound oil flows through the Suez Canal were Asian countries (74%). Total traffic through the Suez Canal fell in 2009, and total oil flows dropped to 1.8 million bbl/d, their lowest level in recent years. The decrease in oil flows during that time reflected the collapse in world oil market demand that began in the fourth quarter of 2008, followed by OPEC production cuts (primarily from the Persian Gulf), which caused a sharp fall in regional oil trade starting in early 2009. Egypt's 2011 revolution did not have any noticeable effect on oil transit flows through the Suez Canal. Over the past few years, oil flows through the Suez Canal have increased, recovering from previous lower levels during the global economic downturn. SUMED Pipeline
The 200-mile long SUMED Pipeline, or Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline, transports crude oil through Egypt from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. The crude oil flows through two parallel pipelines that are 42 inches in diameter, with a total pipeline capacity of 2.34 million bbl/d. Oil flows north starting at the Ain Sukhna terminal along the Red Sea coast to its end point at the Sidi Kerir terminal on the Mediterranean Sea. SUMED is owned by the Arab Petroleum Pipeline Co., a joint venture between the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (50%), Saudi Aramco (15%), Abu Dhabi's International Petroleum Investment Company (15%), multiple Kuwaiti companies (15%), and Qatar Petroleum (5%).16 The SUMED Pipeline is the only alternative route to transport crude oil from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea if ships were unable to navigate through the Suez Canal. Closure of the Suez Canal and the SUMED Pipeline would necessitate diverting oil tankers around the southern tip of Africa, the Cape of Good Hope, adding approximately 2,700 miles to transit from Saudi Arabia to the United States, increasing both costs and shipping time, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation.17 According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), shipping around Africa would add 15 days of transit to Europe and 8-10 days to the United States.18 Fully laden VLCCs going toward the Suez Canal also use the SUMED Pipeline for lightering. Lightering occurs when a vessel needs to reduce its weight and draft by offloading cargo to enter a restrictive waterway, such as a canal. The Suez Canal is not deep enough for a fully-laden VLCC and, therefore, a portion of the crude is offloaded at the SUMED Pipeline at the Ain Sukhna terminal. The now partially-laden VLCC goes through the Suez Canal and picks up the offloaded crude at the other end of the pipeline at the Sidi Kerir terminal. In 2013, 1.4 million bbl/d of crude oil was transported through the SUMED Pipeline to the Mediterranean Sea, which was then loaded onto a tanker for seaborne trade. SUMED crude flows decreased over the past few years, but the decrease has been offset by more oil transiting northbound via the Suez Canal. Total oil flows via SUMED and the Suez Canal were 4.6 million bbl/d in 2013, 0.1 million bbl/d higher compared with the previous year. Total oil flows via the Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline accounted for about 8% of total seaborne-traded oil in 2013. *** Bab el-Mandeb
Closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could keep tankers in the Persian Gulf from reaching
the Suez Canal and the SUMED Pipeline, diverting them around the southern tip of Africa.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a chokepoint between the Horn of Africa and the Middle East, and it is a strategic link between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. The strait is located between Yemen, Djibouti, and Eritrea, and connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. Most exports from the Persian Gulf that transit the Suez Canal and SUMED Pipeline also pass through Bab el-Mandeb.
An estimated 3.8 million bbl/d of crude oil and refined petroleum products flowed through this waterway in 2013 toward Europe, the United States, and Asia, an increase from 2.9 million bbl/d in 2009. Oil shipped through the strait decreased by almost one-third in 2009 because of the global economic downturn and the decline in northbound oil shipments to Europe. Northbound oil shipments increased through Bab el-Mandeb Strait in 2013, and more than half of the traffic, about 2.1 million bbl/d, moved northbound to the Suez Canal and SUMED Pipeline.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is 18 miles wide at its narrowest point, limiting tanker traffic to two 2-mile-wide channels for inbound and outbound shipments. Closure of the Bab el-Mandeb could keep tankers from the Persian Gulf from reaching the Suez Canal or SUMED Pipeline, diverting them around the southern tip of Africa, adding to transit time and cost. In addition, European and North African southbound oil flows could no longer take the most direct route to Asian markets via the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb.
So, it's all about the oil. If Iran can control oil flowing out of the Middle East, it can control prices and, I assume it believes, the behavior of those nations dependent upon that oil.
A Saudi navy frigate on Monday provided protection for a Turkish cargo ship after receiving a distress call from the ship early this morning as three small boats attempted to hijack it in the international waters near the Gulf of Aden, state news agency SPA reported. *** The pirates fled the area following the arrival of the frigate, Al-Riyadh, which then escorted the Turkish merchant ship Yasa Seyhan out of the danger zone, the agency said on its website.
Somali pirates say they have released a Saudi-owned tanker carrying two million barrels of crude oil that they hijacked in the Indian Ocean.
"All our people have now left the Sirius Star. The ship is free, the crew is free," Mohamed Said, the leader of the pirate group, told the AFP news agency on Friday.
Farah Osman, an purported associate of the pirates, told the Reuters news agency that a $3m ransom had been paid for the 330-metre tanker owned by the shipping arm of oil giant Aramco.
"Pirates holding the Saudi ship took $3 million yesterday evening and then released the ship this morning," he said.
UPDATE: Well, now we know the price of a VLCC full of oil. That's a lot of khat for the pirates and their leaders - don't be surprised if the new pirate business model involves more hunting for such "high value units" - even if off the normal, well-beaten sea lanes...
Pirates on Monday attacked and took control of the Saudi-owned very large crude carrier Sirius Star off the east coast of Africa, a spokesman for the US Navy 5th fleet said.
"The vessel is under the pirates' control," the spokesman told AFP following a statement saying that the tanker, which is owned by Saudi Aramco, came under attack more than 450 nautical miles southeast of Mombasa, Kenya.
The ship carried 25 crew members from Croatia, Britain, Philippines, Poland and Saudi Arabia, the statement added.
The 318,000-tonne vessel, launched earlier this year, is flagged in Liberia and operated by Vela International.
UPDATE: According to this report, the ship was not bound through the Gulf of Aden but was headed around the Cape of Good Hope and was nabbed 450 miles off the coast of Kenya. These are somewhat remarkable developments, as is the capture of such a large vessel.
The very large crude tanker Sirius Star was attacked more than 450 nautical miles southeast of Mombasa, Kenya. The ship is flagged in Liberia, owned by the Saudi Arabian based Saudi Aramco, and operated by Vela International. The crew of 25 includes citizens of: Croatia, Great Britain, The Philippines, Poland, and Saudi Arabia.
This attack comes amid a decrease in the rate of successful pirate attacks on merchant vessels off the coast of Somalia. Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) data analysis has shown that the combination of both military and civilian involvement in the area has reduced the percentage of successful piracy attacks from 53% in August, to 31% in October.
“Our presence in the region is helping deter and disrupt criminal attacks off the Somali coast, but the situation with the Sirius Star clearly indicates the pirates’ ability to adapt their tactics and methods of attack” said Vice Adm. Bill Gortney, Commander, Combined Maritime Forces. “Piracy is an international crime that threatens global commerce. Shipping companies have to understand that naval forces can not be everywhere. Self protection measures are the best way to protect their vessels, their crews, and their cargo.” *** As is evident with the attack on Sirius Star, increasingly daring attacks are being conducted by Somali pirates on a variety of merchant vessels. Tuesday, Nov. 11, a UK warship successfully thwarted a pirate attack on a Danish shipping vessel and boarded the pirate ship responsible. During the course of the boarding, the team engaged the pirates in self defense resulting in a number of fatalities. Such incidents highlight the complications associated with operating in this environment and the need for a permanent and effective land-based solution to the security situation in the region.
UPDATE: Route map for ship owner:
Rough area of attack is shaded pink - near the entrance to another sea chokepoint, the Mozambique Channel (click on images to enlarge):
UPDATE: Chairman, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff "stunned" by new range of pirates, it says here:
The top US military officer said Monday he was "stunned" by the reach of the Somali pirates who seized a Saudi supertanker off the east coast of Africa, calling piracy a growing problem that needs to be addressed.
But Admiral Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said there were limits to what the world's navies could do once a ship has been captured because national governments often preferred to pay pirates ransom.
"I'm stunned by the range of it, less so than I am the size," Mullen said of the seizure of the Sirius Star Sunday by armed men.
The huge, oil laden prize, which is three times the size of a US aircraft carrier, was some 450 miles east of Kenya when it was boarded, he said.
That is the farthest out at sea that a ship has been seized in the latest surge of piracies, according to Mullen.
The pirates, he said, are "very good at what they do. They're very well armed. Tactically, they are very good."
"And so, once they get to a point where they can board, it becomes very difficult to get them off, because, clearly, now they hold hostages.
"The question then becomes, well, what do you do about the hostages? And that's where the standoff is.
"That's a national question to ask based on the flag of the vessel. And the countries by and large have been paying the ransom that the pirates have asked," he said.
Two submersed diver-training platforms at a popular beach north of Jeddah have been destroyed in an apparent act of vandalism that is believed to have been committed by a team of divers. *** The dive platforms themselves, which were constructed in 1997, became mini manmade reefs with a whole community of fish — some of them rare and unusual species — and other reef-crawlers taking up residence underneath them. Lessons taking place on the platforms have been temporarily suspended as divers stopped to marvel at the occasional passing whale shark, manta ray, or sea turtle.
“Whoever did this for whatever purpose has damaged much more than just a bundle of pipe-work,” said Saga. “They have damaged a developing specialist tourist industry and sent out a message that they care nothing for the environment or safety of divers. It is incredible that the wreckers must have been divers; one has to question their sanity. Why on earth would they want to destroy something as valuable to the community as this?”
