Energy Wars: Fracking Our Way Ahead

America's not so secret new weapon, discussed again at The American Interest "Shale Boom Has America Sitting Pretty"

By lessening our dependence on foreign sources of oil and gas, the shale boom has given us more options abroad, and in some cases . . . has given America more clout in diplomatic standoffs.

Almost all of this "shale boom" has occurred, by the way, by private companies working their "magic" on private property - in many cases with local or regional opposition to this development.

Interesting look at the U.S. development of its resources from Aljazeera "American power and the fracking boom: What impact will America's oil and gas boom from fracking have on US power and global geopolitics?":

Fracking is giving rise to a new energy abundance in the United States that has major implications for American policy in the Middle East and the debate over climate change. Over the past five years, daily oil production in the US increased 3.7 million barrels, while US net imports of oil dropped 44 percent. A revolutionary technique to tap into oil and gas reserves by drilling horizontally into underground shale formations and using liquids pumped at high pressure to open cracks in the rock, fracking is reshaping the contours of American power.
***
For the past 35 years, securing access to Persian Gulf oil and protecting the shipping lanes to keep it flowing has been a central tenet of American military policy. It is known as the Carter doctrine because President Jimmy Carter first enunciated the commitment in his 1980 State of the Union address.

Historian and author Andrew Bacevich hopes that the shale oil and gas boom from fracking will cause a strategic rethinking of the Carter Doctrine in the United States. "What the new energy regime could do would be to make it clear that the United States does have choices and one of those choices will be to lower our profile in the Middle East more broadly and in the Persian Gulf specifically," he says.
***
According to Jeppe Kofod, a member of the European Parliament and representative from Denmark to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, about one-third of US military spending, or about $200bn a year, can be linked to efforts to keep oil flowing.
***
. . . President Barack Obama and administration officials emphasise that the US commitment to safeguarding access to Middle Eastern oil will remain strong despite America’s shrinking reliance on imports from the region. In a speech at the United Nations last year, Obama said that the US is prepared to use military force, “to ensure the free flow of energy from the region to the world. Although America is steadily reducing our own dependence on imported oil, the world still depends on the region's energy supply."
***
Anti-fracking activists are trying to prevent the construction of terminals and pipelines needed to transport and export natural gas and oil. Robbie Cross, a member of a local group trying to stop fracking in Pennsylvania, is clear about the rationale. "After you frack it has got to go somewhere," he says. "If we don’t have ways of moving it, selling it, distributing it, it’s not going to work."
***
Richardson and other proponents of shale exports argue that they can be used as effective instruments of American power to counter the Russians in Europe. The Continent relies on Russia for 30 percent of its gas supplies, and half transits via the Ukraine. Some countries like Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic get 70 to 100 percent of their gas from Russia. Hungary’s ambassador–at-large for energy security, Anita Orbán, argues that American exports of natural gas to Europe can help diversify supplies and undermine Russia’s energy leverage there even if the flow does not begin for a few years. (emphasis added)

The impact of fracking on China is discussed in the country that uses the greatest percentage of coal in the world, China, in this Atlantic article, America's Fracking Boom Comes to China: Deep inside Beijing's campaign to wean the country off coal .

What the EIA says:

Most of China's proven shale gas resources reside in the Sichuan and Tarim basins in the southern and western regions and in the northern and northeastern basins. EIA estimates from its most recent report on shale oil and gas resources that China's technically recoverable shale gas reserves are 1,115 Tcf, the largest shale gas reserves in the world.
***
China's NOCs are in discussion with several IOCs for partnering on potential shale gas projects in order to gain necessary technical skills and investment for developing these geologically challenging resources. CNPC and Shell signed the first PSC for the Fushun-Yonghchuan block of shale gas in the Sichuan Basin in March 2012. Shell also has partnered with Sinopec and CNOOC on two other shale gas plays. After investing $950 million between 2011 and 2013 on shale gas exploration in China, Shell plans to spend another $1 billion each year for the next five years to develop these resources. Sinopec is working with Chevron and ConocoPhillips to explore shale gas resources in the Qiannan and Sichuan basins, respectively. On the reverse side, Chinese NOCs have been actively investing in shale oil and gas plays in North America to gain technical expertise in this arena. (NOC=National Oil Company, IOC= International Oil Company)

It's interesting that people who have previously argued that we should not fight "wars for oil" in our own national interest are willing (1) to commit our national forces and dollars to possibly fighting "wars for oil" for the interests of other countries and (2) that people who who are opposed to U.S. fracking on environmental grounds seem to be totally okay with the status quo of pushing environmental damage off to those second and third world countries who are resource rich but not in the protesters back yards - and condemning others in the world to be dependent on the whims of leaders in Russia and other undemocratic countries.

Given the huge amount of pollution created by the use of coal by China (about 50% of the world's use) - see China's coal emissions responsible for 'quarter of a million premature deaths', it is to the benefit of the entire world that China be given all the assistance it needs to wean itself from coal and to develop its access to those much cleaner burning natural gas reservoirs.

It also behooves Europe and Japan that the U.S., Canada and Mexico develop LNG export facilities to allow the export of natural gas to offset the Russian and Iranian power in using the "oil and gas weapon" against Europe.

The U.S. government should be encouraging U.S. companies to help Poland to explore its shale gas reserves as an offset to the Russians. While the estimated levels of Polish shale gas are fluctuating, there is gas there and it is both Polish and European interests to develop it.

It's not just the U.S. that has the potential to be "sitting pretty" as a result of the the shale boom.

Disaster Prep Wednesday: Dealing with Media OverHype

Okay, Ebola has reached the U.S.

Given the media coverage, it is difficult to believe that only 6 people have been or are undergoing treatment for the virus inside America, all of whom contracted the disease overseas.

See this NYTimes report. How Many Ebola Patients Are Being Treated Outside of West Africa? and the chart below liberated from there:

What do you see? Of the 6 U.S. patients, 3 have recovered and 2 are in treatment and, in a late update, now 1 has died (see here). Of the 8 others on the chart, 3 have recovered, 3 more are in treatment and 2 people outside of West Africa have died.

Africa stats are not as good as this NYT chart shows:

But, even under far worse health conditions than those in the U.S., more than half the people infected have survived. And, as stressed here:

Symptoms generally occur abruptly eight to 10 days after infection, though that period can range from two to 21 days, health officials say.

Air travelers must keep in mind that Ebola is not transmitted through the air, said Dr. Marty Cetron, director of the CDC's Division of Global Migration and Quarantine.

"There needs to be direct contact frequently with body fluids or blood," he stressed.

It is a serious disease. But it is a preventable and treatable disease.

Don't allow yourself to fall into a media induced panic.

Which is the point of this post - that the media in disaster situations can be a great boon or a great detriment to the public.

There's an interesting article from Forbes that helps make this point, Media Hype Over Nuclear Energy Increases Anxiety And Confusion, discussing the often uninformed media coverage of incidents involving nuclear power plants:

Much media coverage of the nuclear component of Japan’s ongoing earthquake and tsunami tragedy has lacked objectivity and proportionality, compounding already high public anxiety and confusion levels. Excessive attention has been directed to hypothetical radiation dangers relative to the enormous scale of broader havoc wrought by those incredible once-in-three-century natural disasters. Realistic risks have often been exaggerated by poorly informed reporters, along with alarmist agenda-driven commentators presented as experts.

Is it sometimes worse to underplay potential hazards and consequences than to err on the side of caution? Perhaps. But unfounded, panic-evoking, worst-case conjectures are unwarranted and irresponsible.

Want a bad example? Here's one pointed out by NYTimes opinion writer Andrew Revkin in Radiation + Cable Anchor + Science = ?:


Given that everything now seems to be a news-driven "crisis," is it possible that we face a "boy who cried wolf" situation, in which people have heard so many dire warnings that they begin to ignore or downplay them? See Does severe weather hype make people under-react?:

That's not to mention the way in which potential weather events are described. Reporters, government officials and experts who use terms like "catastrophic," "historic," and "unprecedented" to describe a storm without explaining just what makes a particular weather system unique do nothing but water down the gravity of these words. There are only so many times one can hear that a particular storm is the "big one" before he stops heeding warnings all together

Cited in the prior link is an excellent article from the WaPo's Erik Wemple, Hurricane Sandy: Five tips for avoiding hype:

Exaggeration has huge consequences, as WJLA’s Ryan notes. “People get unnecessarily frightened and they’re preparing for something that is really terrible and then it doesn’t happen, and then the next time you say it’s a catastrophic storm and they say, ‘We don’t believe you,’” says Ryan.

I think we've seen this effect present on people who decide to "ride out" hurricanes on barrier islands - especially in areas where prior media warnings of "dire" storms have come to naught.

My point is, of course, that just as it should be incumbent for news agencies to report news of things like approaching storms accurately and with less hype, it is also the role of an informed citizens to learn to weed through the "Nancy Grace" hysteria and make realistic assessments of the threats to their own situations.

It is extremely unlikely that any one of us will ever come in contact with an ebola virus carrier.

It is far more likely that some of us may be involved in a car wreck, a thunderstorm, an earthquake, a home fire, a blizzard, a tornado or a hurricane.

As I have suggested before, your disaster preparation needs to be based on the more probable things that could impact your life. That, despite the excitement of thinking about the horror of it, likely does not involve either ebola or zombies. Sorry.

U.S. Navy: Bring Out the Swarmbots!

Here's a report that makes you want to shout "Faster please!"

As you read it, think about arming these things with stuff like (a) mini-torpedoes (b) mini-mines (c) missiles (d) chaff launchers (e) mini-guns (f) anti-wing in ground aircraft weapons and other stuff. More on this below.



U.S. Navy report on its new "swarmbot technology" "Navy's Autonomous Swarmboats Can Overwhelm Adversaries":

A technological breakthrough will allow any unmanned surface vehicle (USV) to not only protect Navy ships, but also, for the first time, autonomously "swarm" offensively on hostile vessels, officals at the Office of Naval Research (ONR) announced Oct. 5.

The first-of-its-kind technology, successfully demonstrated over two weeks in August on the James River in Virginia, allows unmanned Navy vessels to overwhelm an adversary. Its sensors and software enable swarming capability, giving naval warfighters a decisive edge.

"This networking unmanned platforms demonstration was a cost-effective way to integrate many small, cheap and autonomous capabilities that can significantly improve our warfighting advantage," said Adm. Jonathan Greenert, chief of naval operations.

The technology, called CARACaS (Control Architecture for Robotic Agent Command and Sensing), is under development by ONR and can be put into a transportable kit and installed on almost any boat. It allows boats to operate autonomously, without a Sailor physically needing to be at the controls including operating in sync with other unmanned vessels, choosing their own routes, swarming to interdict enemy vessels and escorting/protecting naval assets.

"Our Sailors and Marines can't fight tomorrow's battles using yesterday's technology," said Chief of Naval Research Rear Adm. Matthew Klunder. "This kind of breakthrough is the result of the Navy's long-term support for innovative research in science and technology."

In the demonstrations, as many as 13 Navy boats operated using either autonomous or remote control. First they escorted a high-value Navy ship, and when a simulated enemy vessel was detected, the boats sped into action, swarming around the threat.

In the future, the capability could scale to include even greater numbers of USVs and even to other platforms, including unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

"This multiplies combat power by allowing CARACaS-enabled boats to do some of the dangerous work," said Dr. Robert Brizzolara, program manager at ONR. "It will remove our Sailors and Marines from many dangerous situations -- for instance, when they need to approach hostile or suspicious vessels. If an adversary were to fire on the USVs, no humans would be at risk."

The new technology will allow the USVs to detect, deter or destroy attacking adversaries. Any weapons fire from the USVs would need to be initiated by a Sailor supervising the mission.

Naval leadership has emphasized a blended force of manned and unmanned systems in recent years. Not only can USVs take on dangerous missions, thus protecting the warfighter, but even multiple USVs are a fraction of the cost of a single large manned ship.

Want to fight anti-access swarms by bad guys? How about sending 10 of these things out with something like floating mini-mines (minelets?) capable of of being fired off in a short-lived (a couple of hours? 30 minutes?) mine field patterns that builds an explosive barrier around a high value unit that an opposing swarm would have to deal with? Advantage? No targeting required, just lay out a field and then back it up with other swarmbots armed with other weapons, along with those great big gray hulls.

Dealing with small submarines? What about mini-torpedoes with both internal sensors and links to other systems (like sonobouys) that can be launched by remote control or by air. Make them capable of "waiting" until a confirmed detection.

Speaking of sensors - another use of these things could be to send sensors capable of reporting back to the launch vessel about areas too challenging for big ships (up rivers or in the littorals guarded by anti-ship cruise missiles.

Unleash the Sun Trackers!

Nice thing is that the Navy apparently could outfit itself with capable craft by simply going to Craigslist and buying up old bass boats and other motorboats. Think of using a pontoon boat as an "aircraft carrier" for drones (armed or intelligence collecting).

Need a new class of ship, though, "Swarmbot carriers." Perhaps using barges towed by other ships that can submerge enough to float the swarm into action positions?

Game changing.

South China Sea Piracy? Vietnamese Tanker "Disappears" After Leaving Singapore

Reported here:

The Sunrise 689 vessel, owned by Haiphong Fisheries Shipbuilding Joint Stock Co., went missing 40 minutes after it left a Singapore port at 6 p.m.Singapore time on Oct. 2, said Nguyen Van Phuong, an official with the Vietnam Maritime Administration.

ShipSpotting.com

© martin klingsick

"The vessel was carrying 5,226 metric tons of oil products and should have arrived in Quang Tri province on Sunday as scheduled," Mr. Phuong told The Wall Street Journal.

A company official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, confirmed the vessel is missing, but declined to give further details.

Okay, small tanker headed into the South China Sea and right into an area where small tankers have been nabbed, emptied of cargo and released. Hmm.

40 minutes? You probably could have seen her from the beach . . .

North Korea: Overthrow or Just "Health Issues" at the Top?

When dictators go missing, rumors fly, as reported by North Korea News in September: Kim Jong Un a virtual no-show: Kim’s absence, continuing position changes lead to uncertainty and speculation about the regime:

As of October 3, North Korea’s Supreme Leader

KJU in the land of the funny hats and haircuts

Kim Jong Un has officially been missing from public view for 30 days, his longest absence ever. This has, as expected, led to many questions and speculation about what’s happened to Kim and what it means for the regime in Pyongyang.
***
It didn’t take long for observers to notice the unusual lack of state media appearances by Kim and, consequently, to begin questioning it. A rumor soon spread that Kim, who allegedly developed a fondness for Swiss Ementaller cheese while studying abroad there, had imported large quantities to North Korea for his own personal consumption. Kim was also seen sporting a limp since July. This, combined with his physical size, smoking habit, and rumored love of cheese, has led to speculation that Kim may be afflicted with gout, which often causes pain in the joints of the feet and ankles.

Pyongyang did, uncharacteristically, publicly announce that Kim was indeed suffering from health problems, but they provided no details. North Korea later denied rumors that Kim underwent ankle surgery.

This situation has additionally led to speculation about who is currently in charge in Pyongyang and whether or not there will be any major change in the structure of the regime. The Seoul-based think tank North Korea Intellectuals Solidarity (NKIS) suggested that Kim Yo Jong, Kim Jong Un’s younger sister, may presently be responsible for running the regime while her brother is being treated for his health problems.

More on why this "known unknown" is a bad thing at The National Interest After Kim: Why the Mystery Surrounding North Korea is a Very Bad Thing:

Today, talk is rife that North Korea’s Kim Jong-un might be about to undergo the same fate as Khrushchev. To be sure, experts downplay the likelihood that Kim has been or will be overthrown. Yet the recent flurry of conjecture about North Korea’s future only highlights the extent to which outsiders do not know what takes place along Pyongyang’s corridors of power. The level of uncertainty is far beyond even that which characterized U.S.-Soviet relations during the Cold War and makes it almost impossible for the United States, South Korea and others to develop judicious policies for handling the infamously volatile North Korean regime.

Hope the ROK is on alert.

Yes, even with the new agreements to talk with the NORKs, South and North Korea Agree to New Talks:

South and North Korea agreed on Saturday to resume high-level talks this year, raising hopes for a thaw in the long-tense relations on the divided Korean Peninsula.
***
The North Korean delegation’s visit and the agreement to resume talks were all the more unexpected, given the North’s recent vitriol toward the South Korean president, Park Geun-hye. On Thursday, the North called Ms. Park “a rabid dog” after she vowed that pressing the North to end human rights abuses would be a key goal of her government.

The two Koreas have technically been at war since the Korean War ended in 1953 with a truce rather than a peace treaty, and their relationship has been particularly sour during the past few years. But signs of a possible thaw have emerged in recent months.

China: The Times They Are A-Changin'?

Interesting thoughts on where China is headed politically from an reporter/author:




Transcript here:

As a motivator, if you think about it, China has grown for 30 years at a rate of about eight percent a year, meaning that the economy has doubled in size every seven or eight years. And that period has come to an end. And so what it's looking for is a new source of domestic legitimacy, growth and unity, and that has forced the government to draw on new impulses, and one of the ways that it's doing that, of course, is by turning to nationalism. And it's cultivating a sense that China should rally around the flag. It's encouraging students in school to study the history of China's victimhood.

Victimhood seems a pretty poor place to start - I think some guy in Germany took that route a few years back.

Not that China doesn't have some historical grievances (as did Germany). The question for the CCP is which path to follow - focusing on the past to seek to pump an aggressive patriotism, or focusing on the future in which the past is overcome by success in the modern world. But the latter path may lead to shrinking power for the CCP . . .

It is interesting to hear the opinion that China has moderating influences to which the CCP is sort of responding.

As noted by the Sam Trangredi, our guest on Midrats yesterday, in his book Anti-Access Warfare: Countering A2/AD Strategies (also available as a Kindle book here), one reason that authoritarian governments make aggressive political/military moves is often an attempt to shore up domestic support when the authorities power is shaken, citing the Argentine actions with respect to the Falklands as one example (and perhaps Putin in the Ukraine):

. . . The obvious question is why the Argentine government decided to use preemptive force in seizing the islands,

The answer lies in Argentina's domestic situation at that time. *** With no appearance of legitimacy, the junta resorted to resolving a standing nationalist grievance, the outcome of which could appeal to Argentine patriotism and popularly justify continuation of junta rule.

There are plenty of other examples of internally threatened regimes who resort to external violence to keep their power.

This portion of the video seems particularly appropriate:

. . . fundamentally, the rule of the Communist Party relies on faith of a certain kind. Faith in the party above all.

The interview appears to have taken place before the current Hong Kong embarrassment to the Chinese power structure.

UPDATE: Cleaned up one split infinitive.

On Midrats 5 Oct 14 - Episode 248: "Anti-Access Area-Denial (A2AD) with Sam Tangredi"

Please join us on 5 Oct 14 at 5pm Eastern U.S. for Midrats Episode 248: "Anti-Access Area-Denial (A2AD) with Sam Tangredi":

Power projection, sea control, access, denial, and the ability to impose your will on the enemy from the sea - or depending on your perspective - prevent them.

If the comparative advantage of American military power includes the use of the world's oceans as a basing area from projecting power and national will, how can other nations design systems and tactics to trump that advantage? What are in place now, and what can we expect to see in the near future?

Our guest for the full hour will be Sam J. Tangredi, a defense strategist whose studies of future warfare prompted Defense Department officials to label him “the Navy’s futurist.” His thirty-year naval career included command at sea, service in key strategic planning positions in the Pentagon and overseas, earning a PhD in international relations, and research fellowships at two think tanks.

His over one hundred publications—which include four books--have won awards, including the U.S. Naval Institute’s Arleigh Burke Prize and the U.S. Navy League’s Alfred Thayer Mahan Award. He is currently the director of San Diego operations for the planning/consulting firm Strategic Insight.

Join us live or pick the show up later by clicking here or from Midrats on iTunes
.

Saturday is Heinlein Quote Day #28

From remarks written for This I Believe (1952):

I believe in my fellow citizens. Our headlines are splashed with crime, yet for every criminal there are 10,000 honest decent kindly men. If it were not so, no child would live to grow up, business could not go on from day to day. Decency is not news; it is buried in the obituaries --but it is a force stronger than crime.

I believe in the patient gallantry of nurses...in the tedious sacrifices of teachers. I believe in the unseen and unending fight against desperate odds that goes on quietly in almost every home in the land.

I believe in the honest craft of workmen. Take a look around you. There never were enough bosses to check up on all that work. From Independence Hall to the Grand Coulee Dam, these things were built level and square by craftsmen who were honest in their bones.

Friday Fun Film: "Midnight" (1945)

A little film to encourage the public to help fund the Navy, Coast Guard, and Marines as they operate around the world in WWII:



Wonder what happened to "war bonds?"

Fighting ISIS: "The enemy of my enemy . . ."

The "unifying" factor of getting pounded from the air

If politics makes for strange bedfellows, getting pounded in a war can unite entities with those fighting their common enemies.

This point is made again in this Long War Journal article Pro-al Qaeda ideologues propose truce between Islamic State, rivals:

The Islamic State, headed by Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, has been warring with the Al Nusrah Front, al Qaeda's official branch in Syria, and other jihadist organizations since last year. Some of the signatories were involved in previous efforts to reconcile the Islamic State with its rivals. Those efforts failed, but the jihadist ideologues are trying once again.

"We call on all factions in Syria and Iraq to cease fighting among themselves no later than the evening of [Oct 3, 2014], for perhaps Allah most high will descend his mercies upon Syria and its people in the prayer of Muslim crowds on that great day," the proposal reads.

The document continues: "And we request from all the factions that they announce their position regarding this initiative in their manner in three days from the date of the publication of this statement, so that it can be made known and clear who rejects this blessed initiative."

The authors argue that "forty countries have united and gathered together to wage war against" Islam itself. They ask: "[S]o does our loyalty to Islam and its people not require of us to stop the infighting under the bombardment of this Crusader campaign at the very least if a permanent [final] end to it is not possible?"

Sort of like "united we stand, divided we fall," isn't it?

It would simplify the problems of all the factions if they could focus on their common enemy without having worry about each other.

Probably doesn't matter all that much to the forces fighting these jihadists. I suppose, if their organizations matter so much, it is truly appropriate to use the alleged old Crusader phrase (reportedly spoken during a Christian -um- sect battle): "Kill them all and let God sort them out."

You might note that this phrase has been suggested as being the official White House strategy in Syria:

The new plan seems to be: “Kill’em all and let God sort them out,” a Vietnam-era slogan echoing the original from the Middle Ages.

The real problem is that the White House’s strategy looks like it’s being run by two angry women, Susan Rice and UN ambassador Samantha Power. Neither they nor President Barack Obama seems to have any grasp of military or geopolitical strategy. It’s amateur hour driven by a frenzy of alarmist hysteria from politicians and the media.

Well, I wouldn't exactly call it a strategy, but united or not, there are reasons to not wish any of these jihadists groups well.

Another leg of the attack on ISIS is to cut their funding, and at least one source suggests that the bombing is helping in that effort:

U.S. airstrikes in Syria targeting oil refineries controlled by the Islamic State group are cutting heavily into the group’s profits, which at one point were, on average, between $2 million and $3 million a day, analysts say.

“It is crippling for ISIS,” Luay al-Khatteeb, director of the Iraq Energy Institute, said of the destruction of oil refineries. After more than a week of U.S. and coalition bombings targeting the Sunni militant group in Syria, “profits [for ISIS] are out of the equation." The group’s profits are now in the thousands rather than millions of dollars per day . . .

Yes, but you only bomb the refineries once. It is the other behind the back funding that needed to be totally quashed. More on this funding issue here:

Learning from their previous incarnation as the Islamic State of Iraq, when they received money from foreign fighters, Islamic State has almost weaned itself off private funds from sympathetic individual donors in the Gulf. Such money flows have come under increased scrutiny from the U.S. Treasury.

Instead the group has formalized a system of internal financing that includes an Islamic form of taxation, looting and most significantly, oil sales, to run their 'state' effectively.

This suggests it will be harder to cut the group's access to the local funding that is fuelling its control of territory and strengthening its threat to the Middle East and the West.
***
Nevertheless, financing from Gulf donors may prove more critical in months to come, if U.S. President Barack Obama's mission to "degrade and destroy" the group succeeds and the group loses territory and finds itself looking abroad for funds.
***
In the end, squeezing the group's finances will involve a mixture of intelligence and force. Ending the group's control of a given area using military might would remove its ability to raise local taxes, for example. Tracking smuggling routes or Gulf donors, in contrast, would involve local informants.

The article references kidnapping and ransom and other criminal activity . . . but an "Islamic form of taxation?" This site discusses the concept of "zakat" - a tax structure allowed by Islam:

As far as the various rates of zakat are concerned, three distinct categories can be classified:

1. Wealth: After deducting the nisaab and taking into consideration other exemptions mentioned above, the wealth of a person, shall be taxed annually at the rate of 2%. Tax on trade capital shall also be levied at the same rate by considering this capital to be the sum of cash in hand and cash in trade.

2. Produce: Zakat on produce is deducted at the time of produce and depending upon the various items has three rates: 5%; 10%; 20%

i) 5%: On items which are produced by the interaction of both labour and capital: eg. produce from irrigated lands and industrial produce from factories7.

ii) 10%: On items which are produced such that the major factor in producing them is either labour or capital, but not both. Examples of the former include an artist’s creation like paintings and the works of scholars and intellectuals, while examples of the latter include rented houses, and produce from rainy lands.

iii) 20%: On items which are produced neither as a result of labour nor capital but are actually a gift of God, eg treasure etc.

3. Animals: Only those animals which are bred and reared for the purpose of trade and business are subject to zakat. The details of the rates of zakat on animals can be consulted from any book of fiqh.

At some point even turnips run dry, so "local" taxes seem to be a short-term solution.

Fighting ISIS: The Enemy Gets a Vote

USAF Photo by Staff Sgt. Vernon Young Jr.

Gonna fight a war solely from the air? Well, the enemy you fight will adapt to your limitations, as noted in this Bloomberg article, "Islamic State Dispersing Makes U.S Adapt Targets" by which "adapt targets" means it's harder to find and kill them:

Islamic State terrorists are dispersing and changing tactics to make it harder for U.S. airstrikes to target them, the Pentagon’s spokesman said.

“Yes, they’re blending in more” with the population and “yes, they’re dispersing, and yes, they aren’t communicating quite as openly or as boldly as they once were,” Rear Admiral John Kirby told reporters yesterday at the Pentagon. “That’s a good thing, because if they aren’t operating as freely, then they aren’t as free to achieve their goals.”

The U.S. is “pretty adaptive,” too, and will be patient in choosing targets, in part to minimize civilian casualties, he said. ***

"Pretty adaptive" ain't going to cut it - the OODA loop is getting away from us because of self-imposed limitations on engagement. Being a "one trick pony" makes it easier on the enemy who gets a vote on how to respond to your threat.

If we are going to "beat" these guys, we need to hear the sound of boots on the ground and see the ISIS logistics flow of people, money and weapons disrupted big time.

Disaster Prep Wednesday: Disasters and Financial Preparedness

One thing too rarely discussed in disaster planning is the personal financial well-being of the potential victims of a disaster. It seems that those who are insured, have money in the bank and credit left on their cards may not be as newsworthy as the poor and near poor who have suffered losses.

Why? I would suggest the main reason is planning. I am not alone in suggesting this. The American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) has provided a booklet devoted to the topic title, not surprisingly, Disasters and Financial Planning: A Guide for Preparedness which they say may help

In this booklet, you will find suggestions on steps you can take now to:
✦ Protect your family’s health, life, and property with adequate insurance.
✦ Consider disaster vulnerability and mitigation before making decisions about
relocating and making major purchases.
✦ Pay for a mitigation project.
✦ Plan financially for the possibility of a job loss or disability.
✦ Safeguard your important financial and legal records.
✦ Prepare your loved ones to weather a disaster even if you are not there to care for them.

Disasters and Financial Planning: A Guide for Preparedness

Now many of us have been known to live -um- beyond our means. But there is another approach that involves living below your means - and in some case, going the extreme of working hard to have enough money to retire early - maybe even really, really early What 30-Year-Old Retirees Can Teach The Rest Of Us, which can be done if:

1. Embrace a very frugal lifestyle. That means cutting back substantially on biggies like your home and car expenses as well as learning to cook (to save on dining out and prepared foods) and to do more things yourself rather than pay someone else to do them.

2. Save like crazy­ — ideally at least 75% of your income — and invest the money. Put another way, if you can live on one dollar out of four and invest the other three, you’ll save enough money to cover three years’ worth of future expenses in just one year.

3. Once your investments are sufficient to support that very frugal lifestyle for the rest of your life, consider yourself free to retire. Fisker sets the savings target at 25 to 40 times annual expenses, depending on how many years you have ahead of you.

I'm sure there is room for you to develop your own plan in there somewhere, but the fundamentals are the same - wise selection of a living space, building up a nest egg, insuring what you have and keeping an eye on the future.

Not so much tweaking China? "Philippines, U.S. begin military exercises near disputed seas" - for the 31st time

"Philippines, U.S. begin military exercises near disputed seas":

Thousands of Philippine and American soldiers began annual war games on Monday near disputed waters in the South China Sea, testing the readiness of the two oldest security allies in the southeast Asian region to respond to any emergency.

More here:

Armed Forces of the Philippines and U.S. service members gathered for the opening ceremony of Amphibious Landing Exercise 2015 Sept. 29 at the Armed Forces of the Philippines Naval Forces West Headquarters, Puerto Princesa, Palawan, Philippines.

PHIBLEX is an annual, bilateral training exercise conducted by U.S. Marine and Navy forces alongside members of the AFP focused on strengthening the partnership and relationships between the two nations, across a range of military operations, including disaster relief and complex expeditionary operations.

“This year marks the 31st iteration of this exercise,” said U.S. Marine Brig. Gen. Paul J. Kennedy, commanding general of 3rd Marine Expeditionary Brigade, III Marine Expeditionary Force. “On the surface, it showcases our combined capabilities and complex maritime operations. But in reality, it highlights a much deeper union.”

The exercise and training events will strengthen the bond between the two nations, and ensure they are able to work together in an even more efficient and effective way during future real-world operations, according to Kennedy.

"We will hone our military skills together during multiple combined field training events,” said Kennedy. “Additionally, we will focus on improving the tactics, techniques, and procedures in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, crisis response, and preservation of peace.”

While the main focus of PHIBLEX is strengthening interoperability, and ensuring the exchange of best practices and tactics between the two forces, the secondary purpose is to ensure there is a bilateral force standing ready to respond to potential HADR efforts, according to AFP Rear Adm. Alexander S. Lopez, commander of Western Command, AFP.

“The Philippines is host to 20-22 typhoons a year…our country is well versed for varying degrees of natural disaster,” said Lopez. “PHIBLEX has been intentionally scheduled yearly in the Philippines during the region’s typhoon season. Together we form an organized bilateral force with the capacity and ability to conduct more rapidly and affect more humanitarian assistance and disaster response (missions).”

PHIBLEX 15 will take place in areas around the Philippines, including Palawan and Subic Bay, and reinforce the structure in those places to ensure a stronger Philippine nation overall.

“A significant amount of the exercise will take place here in the province of Palawan,” said AFP Brig. Gen. Armando V. Banez, commander of the 3rd Marine Brigade, AFP. “We are sending out a strong message of commitment to the people in Palawan, and our country as a whole, as we support nation building and developmental efforts throughout our country.”

(\U.S. Marine Corps photo by Sgt. William Holdaway

During his closing remarks, Lopez took time to emphasize the importance of PHIBLEX as not just another exercise and training opportunity, but as a chance to build upon already present friendships and strengthen bonds.

“To me, the most significant aspect of the exercise is its social relevance and sustainability,” said Lopez. “Let us not waste a great opportunity to meet new friends and develop a friendship between our ranks – military or civilian alike.”

Sea Service Commercials

Saturday is Heinlein Quote Day #27

From Time Enough for Love

Stupidity cannot be cured with money, or through education, or by legislation.

As we enter political season, though, you might hear arguments to the contrary.

Do you remember General Honore' trying to explain things to a reporter following Katrina?

Friday Fun Film: "The U.S. Navy Seabees in Vietnam "

The U.S. Navy Seabees in Vietnam

Disaster Prep Wednesday (Late Edition): Basic Preparedness

FEMA's "Basic Preparedness":

Basic Preparedness

You really, really need a plan.

Okay, make that a good plan.

Grim (Albeit Unintentional) Humor from the NYTimes

Apparently having neither listened nor read any commentary on the limitations of air power, a couple of New York Times reporters seem to be shocked - shocked I say - as they report Weeks of U.S. Strikes Fail to Dislodge ISIS in Iraq

After six weeks of American airstrikes, the Iraqi government’s forces have scarcely budged the Sunni extremists of the Islamic State from their hold on more than a quarter of the country, in part because many critical Sunni tribes remain on the sidelines.

Very weak boots on the ground, riven by competing tribal and religious sect differences.

Who could be surprised except the NYT?

General Mattis has it right:

“Specifically, if this threat to our nation is determined to be as significant as I believe it is, we may not wish to reassure our enemies in advance that they will not see American ‘boots on the ground,’ ” Mattis said. “If a brigade of a our paratroopers or a battalion landing team of our Marines would strengthen our allies at a key juncture and create havoc/humiliation for our adversaries, then we should do what is necessary with our forces that exist for that very purpose.”

You might want to read all of his testimony, which is set out below. But especially this,

Properly used a mix of our troops can help set the conditions for the regional forces that can carry the bulk of the fighting on the ground. Half‐hearted or tentative efforts, or air strikes alone, can backfire on us and actually strengthen our foe’s credibility, reinforcing his recruiting efforts which are already strong. I do not necessarily advocate American ground forces at this point, but we should never reassure our enemy that our Commander‐in‐Chief would not commit them at the time and place of his choosing. When we act it should be unequivocal, designed to end the fight as swiftly as possible.

Mattis Testimony 09182014

Fighting ISIS: President Obama on Air Strikes

Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Robert Burck

President Obama's presentation on airstrikes against ISIS in a transcript

10:11 A.M. EDT

THE PRESIDENT: Good morning, everybody. Last night, on my orders, America’s armed forces began strikes against ISIL targets in Syria. Today, the American people give thanks for the extraordinary service of our men and women in uniform, including the pilots who flew these missions with the courage and professionalism that we've come to expect from the finest military that the world has ever known.

Earlier this month, I outlined for the American people our strategy to confront the threat posed by the terrorist group known as ISIL. I made clear that as part of this campaign the United States would take action against targets in both Iraq and Syria so that these terrorists can't find safe haven anywhere. I also made clear that America would act as part of a broad coalition. And that's exactly what we've done.

We were joined in this action by our friends and partners -- Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Bahrain, and Qatar. America is proud to stand shoulder to shoulder with these nations on behalf of our common security.

The strength of this coalition makes it clear to the world that this is not America’s fight alone. Above all, the people and governments in the Middle East are rejecting ISIL and standing up for the peace and security that the people of the region and the world deserve.

Meanwhile, we will move forward with our plans, supported by bipartisan majorities in Congress, to ramp up our effort to train and equip the Syrian opposition, who are the best counterweight to ISIL and the Assad regime. And more broadly, over 40 nations have offered to help in this comprehensive effort to confront this terrorist threat -- to take out terrorist targets; to train and equip Iraqi and Syrian opposition fighters who are going up against ISIL on the ground; to cut off ISIL’s financing; to counter its hateful ideology; and to stop the flow of fighters into and out of the region.

Last night, we also took strikes to disrupt plotting against the United States and our allies by seasoned al Qaeda operatives in Syria who are known as the Khorasan Group. And once again, it must be clear to anyone who would plot against America and try to do Americans harm that we will not tolerate safe havens for terrorists who threaten our people.

I've spoken to leaders in Congress and I'm pleased that there is bipartisan support for the actions we are taking. America is always stronger when we stand united, and that unity sends a powerful message to the world that we will do what’s necessary to defend our country.

Over the next several days I will have the opportunity to meet with Prime Minister Abadi of Iraq, and with friends and allies at the United Nations to continue building support for the coalition that is confronting this serious threat to our peace and security. The overall effort will take time. There will be challenges ahead. But we're going to do what’s necessary to take the fight to this terrorist group, for the security of the country and the region and for the entire world.

Thanks. God bless our troops. God bless America

UPDATE: From CENTCOM, a report on the strikes here:

To conduct these strikes, the United States employed 47 TLAMs launched from USS Arleigh Burke and USS Philippine Sea operating from international waters in the Red Sea and North Arabian Gulf, as well as U.S. Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps fighter, remotely piloted and bomber aircraft deployed to the U.S. Central Command area of operations. In addition, the Kingdom of Bahrain, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates also participated in or supported the airstrikes against ISIL targets. All aircraft safely exited the strike areas.
***
Separately, the United States has also taken action to disrupt the imminent attack plotting against the United States and Western interests conducted by a network of seasoned al-Qa'ida veterans - sometimes referred to as the Khorasan Group - who have established a safe haven in Syria to develop external attacks, construct and test improvised explosive devices and recruit Westerners to conduct operations. These strikes were undertaken only by U.S. assets.

In total, U.S. Central Command conducted eight strikes against Khorasan Group targets west of Aleppo to include training camps, an explosives and munitions production facility, a communication building and command and control facilities.

See here.
UPDATE2: A little Navy video on mission launch:


UPDATE3: A very interesting piece from (I can't believe I'm writing this) Politico, The Barbarians Within Our Gates:

Arab civilization, such as we knew it, is all but gone. The Arab world today is more violent, unstable, fragmented and driven by extremism—the extremism of the rulers and those in opposition—than at any time since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire a century ago. Every hope of modern Arab history has been betrayed. The promise of political empowerment, the return of politics, the restoration of human dignity heralded by the season of Arab uprisings in their early heydays—all has given way to civil wars, ethnic, sectarian and regional divisions and the reassertion of absolutism, both in its military and atavistic forms.

Read the rest here.

War Against Terrorists: Al Qaeda is back in the news and gets attacked to forestall "imminent attack"

U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Carlos M. Vazquez II

Al Qaeda makes the news again, and gets attacked in Syria, as set out here

Pentagon spokesman Rear Adm. John Kirby confirmed Tuesday that the plotting was far along.

“This is a very dangerous group,” Kirby told Fox News. “We had information, good information that they were very actively plotting and very close to the end of that plotting -- and planning an attack on targets either in Europe or the U.S. homeland.”

As for the result of the airstrikes, he said: “We think we hit what we were aiming at.”

More from the Long War Journal:

The US-led bombing campaign in Syria is targeting the Al Nusrah Front, an official branch of al Qaeda, as well as the Islamic State, an al Qaeda offshoot that is one of Al Nusrah's fiercest rivals.

Before they were launched, the air strikes were framed as being necessary to damage the Islamic State, a jihadist group that has seized large swaths of territory across Syria and Iraq. But in recent days US officials signaled that they were also concerned about al Qaeda's presence in Syria, including the possibility that al Qaeda operatives would seek to use the country as a launching pad for attacks in the West.

Several well-connected online jihadists have posted pictures of the Al Nusrah Front positions struck in the bombings. They also claim that al Qaeda veterans dispatched from Afghanistan to Syria, all of whom were part of Al Nusrah, have been killed.
***
Among the Al Nusrah Front positions targeted in the bombings are locations where members of the so-called "Khorasan group" are thought to be located. Ayman al Zawahiri, the emir of al Qaeda, sent the group to Syria specifically to plan attacks against the US and its interests. The group, which takes its name from al Qaeda's Khorasan shura (or advisory) council, is reportedly led by Muhsin al Fadhli, an experienced al Qaeda operative who has been involved in planning international terrorist attacks for years.

Al Fadhli's presence in Syria was first reported by the Arab Times in March. Shortly thereafter, The Long War Journal confirmed and expanded on this reporting. [See LWJ report, Former head of al Qaeda's network in Iran now operates in Syria.] The Long War Journal reported at the time that al Fadhli's plans "were a significant cause for concern among counterterrorism authorities."

The New York Times reported earlier this month that al Fadhli leads the Khorasan group in Syria.

Unconfirmed reports on jihadist social media sites say that al Fadhli was killed in the bombings. Neither US officials, nor al Qaeda has verified this reporting. The fog of war often makes it difficult to quickly confirm whether an individual jihadist has been killed, wounded, or survived unscathed. Initial reports should be treated with skepticism and there is no firm evidence yet that al Fadhli has been killed.

Read more: here

More on the Al Nusrah Front here:

Al-Nusra Front (also the Nusra Front or Jabhat al-Nusra) was formed in late 2011, when Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) emir Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi sent operative Abu Muhammad al-Julani to Syria to organize jihadist cells in the region. The Nusra Front rose quickly to prominence among rebel organizations in Syria for its reliable supply of arms, funding, and fighters—some from donors abroad, and some from AQI. Considered well trained, professional, and relatively successful on the battlefield, they earned the respect and support of many rebel groups, including some in the secular Free Syrian Army (FSA). However, al-Nusra also made some enemies among the Syrian people and opposition by imposing religious laws, although the group has shied away from the types of brutal executions and sectarian attacks that made AQI unpopular. Al-Nusra was also the first Syrian force to claim responsibility for terrorist attacks that killed civilians. (footnotes omitted)
***
Al-Nusra is affiliated with AQ and has pledged allegiance to the organization, serving as its only official branch in the Syrian conflict after global AQ emir Ayman al-Zawahiri publicly disowned ISIS following months of ISIS disobedience to AQ orders.

So, it's not really that the Al Nusrah Front and the Khorasan group just sprang up - but have been around and have enjoyed the chaos of Syria as providing recruiting and a safe haven.

Until now.