"Terrorists" attack Iraqi Infrastructure

In a NY Times article that is in the "not a surprise" category, the Times notes Insurgents Wage Precise Attacks on Baghdad Fuel. What is amazing is that author of this piece felt it necessary to point out

The new pattern, they say, shows that the insurgents have a deep understanding of the complex network of pipelines, power cables and reservoirs feeding Baghdad, the Iraqi capital.

If these "insurgents" really are the dead-ender remnants of the Baathist party and the Iraqi military, wouldn't we expect them to have this kind of knowledge? As one Iraqi said,

The overall pattern of the sabotage and its technical savvy suggests the guidance of the very officials who tended to the nation's infrastructure during Saddam Hussein's long reign, current Iraqi officials say.

The only reasonable conclusion, said Aiham Alsammarae, the Iraqi electricity minister, is that the sabotage operation is being led by former members of the ministries themselves, possibly aided by sympathetic holdovers.

Here's a little NYT hyperbole:

A new analysis by some of those officials shows that the choice of targets and the timing of sabotage attacks has evolved over the past several months, shifting from economic targets to become what amounts to a siege of the capital.

In a stark illustration of the change, of more than 30 sabotage attacks on the oil infrastructure this year, no reported incident has involved the southern crude oil pipelines that are Iraq's main source of revenue. Instead, the attacks have aimed at gas and oil lines feeding power plants and refineries and providing fuel for transportation around Baghdad and in the north.

Well, it may be some form of infrastructure attack, but it doesn't even come close to a "siege." All it does is require a little more planning in protection of such assets. In addition, the Iraqi people, who should already have little or no love for the former officials of the Saddam regime, will, if pushed far enough, hunt these guys down like the dogs they are and administer a little justice, frontier or otherwise. It's a matter of who is running the country.
"
Update 2/21/2005; The Fourth Rail has some parallel thoughts about the Sunni mistaken approach to the Iraqi election - which has left them out of power and with no legitimacy:

Like al Qaeda in Iraq, the Sunnis grossly miscalculated the ability of the insurgents and terrorists to derail the January election, and now they fear being kept from exercising their share of power in a new Iraq (which they consciously relinquished). Recognizing that the Iraq people view the election as a legitimate referendum of the will of the Iraqi people, they now want to reenter the process of forming a government. Their defense of their actions, were it not so serious in the encouragement of the murder of Iraqis and Americans, would be considered comical. They want the fruits of the electoral process - power and decision making – without actually participating in said process...

That dog won't hunt.

Iran Preparing for U.S. Attack

According to The Counterterroism Blog, the Iranians are preparing defenses against a U.S. attack here. Not surprisingly their "lessons learned" include Iraqi-style asymmetrical terrorist-style warfare and organizing more of the cannon-fodder human wave groups who fought Iraq.

Not a surprise that they put so little value in the lives of their citizens.

Sea Lanes

I keep posting about sea lanes. What are these things? Sea lanes are trade routes - almost like highways in the sea, where due to geography, ocean going vessels follow certain paths to avoid islands, shallows and other impediments to their travel. They are also generally the most efficient routes to get from Point A to Point B - as close to straight line travel as a ship can accomplish given the number of obstacles in its path.

Of particular interest in recent days are the sea lanes China is working to find ways to protect. As you can see from the following (which just reference crude oil shipments) these lanes are heavily travelled. In the first chart, I have marked U.S. allies in blue (yes, Singapore is oversized) and areas that China is making claims or working to establish relations as red bursts. Note that the red bursts sit athwart the sea lanes. The second chart is from 2004 and you should be able to detect an increase in crude being shipped.

1993 lanes


Chokepoints: Maritime Economic Concerns in Southeast Asia Institute for National Strategic Studies, Washington,D.C. (National Defense University, 1996)
(color and bursts added)

2004 lanes


from Straits, Passages and Chokepoints: A Maritime Petroleum Distribution by Jean-Paul Rodrigue Rodrigue. Similar charts exist for other raw materials, such as metals.

So? Well, as Parapundit put it so well:

Oil is China's Achilles Heel from the standpoint of military strategy. Even if they use their massive economic growth rate to build a much larger blue water navy (and I expect they will do exactly that) it is far easier to deny the use of the oceans to some nation than to protect the sea lanes. On the other hand, even if the US and China clash over Taiwan the US would have a difficult time denying oil to China while still allowing oil to get through to other nations in East Asia. Though conceivably the US could allow tankers with carefully selected crews of known loyalties to go around New Guinea headed toward Japan and South Korea.

China wants to be in a position to defend its trade route/sea lanes and they are taking steps now to do so.

The fact that they are also vital to Japan, South Korea and lots of other countries is problematic not only for the reasons Parapunit points out, but because the potentially impacted countries are being targeted individually in what really is a collective problem. The U.S. is interested for economic and security reasons.

And that's why I keep posting about it.

The New Iraqi Army: Building the NCO core

In an older article (Feb 8, 2005) from the Wall Street Journal Mark Bowden (of Blackhawk Down fame) puts his finger right on the most essential aspect of rebuilding the Iraqi army - developing a solid core of non-commissioned officers to lead the Iraqi troops.

"Strong NCO leadership gives units in battle far greater flexibility to respond to unexpected situations and to demonstrate initiative."

In the American military, the NCO's provide the deckplate, ground level leadership to the troops (simplified as "how to fight"), while the officers work on tactical and operational leadership (simplified as "where and when to fight") in pursuit of higher level strategic goals (simplified as "what we are trying to achieve") in line with national command policy (simplified as "Why we need to fight"). A platoon sergeant, a corporal, or Air Force sergeants and Navy chief petty officer and petty officers provide the technical expertise to do the job right and keep the troops on task. It is a hugely important role and development of professional NCOs takes time, patience and a great deal of trust.

As reported in the article, the problem of training for the Iraqi army has not been the soldiers, but the leadership, especially the old Saddam officer corps. This problem can be resolved by professionalizing the NCOs and pushing leadership at that level.

When Senator Kennedy made this completely idiotic statement

When we send over Americans that have had 12 weeks of training, like the nephew of my wife, and is a tail gunner on a Striker--12 weeks--and we have the best-trained American servicemen and the best soldiers in the world, there's no reason in the world that we can't expect Iraqis to be trained with four months, eight months, 12 months so that they are going to fight for their country and they're going to be willing to die for it.  And I think that is what is missing when we hear these numbers batted around like we did today.

(see here) he demonstrated a woeful lack of understanding of how hard that process is.

But it is doable.

Base Closures: Why it's hard to get it done...

Names for the panel on base closures have been submitted to the President, and it seems like every Congressperson will be lobbying hard to keep "his or her" bases open, even if it involves the waste of billions of dollars.

Congress has refused repeated requests by the Pentagon to close more bases since 1995. Part of the reason was lingering Republican distrust after President Clinton moved to ease the economic impact from two base closings in vote-rich California and Texas just before his re-election campaign in 1996.

For Every Action There Is An Equal and Opposite Reacton

People irritated with the constant barrage of being forced to listen to other people's inane cell phone conversations are employing cell phone jammers.

I have a few suggested locations, such as restaurants, stores, and other public spaces.

Develop the rock-penetrating nuke

Bill Gertz of the Washington Times looks at the proposed Defense Budget and notes that in there is a request for money to develop a "rock penetrating Nuclear weapon here.

The Pentagon is seeking $419.3 billion for fiscal 2006, a 4.8 percent increase, and wants to renew work on a rock-penetrating nuclear bomb that could be used against underground bunkers in places such as Iran and North Korea.
    Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld recently asked the Energy Department to spend $18 million over the next two years to finish a study on the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator, or RNEP, which congressional opponents of nuclear weapons sought to kill this year by cutting all funding.

Godd idea to have what you may need in inventory....

Update: Space Daily's take
(hat tip: IMAO

UN Kosovo "Not Ready" for review -- not much of a surprise

Radio Free Europe reports UN Chief Dismisses Early Kosovo Status Review.

Annan says in a report to the Security Council that there must be "real progress" in Kosovo before any decision can be taken on its future.

The UN has had over 5 years to "fix" Kosovo.

This decsion is not a surprise to me. Good thing they decided to stay out of Iraq.

The best sitcom episode ever

Script for the best comedy episode ever Chuckles Bites the Dust

Of course, this one was really good, too:

THE BOB NEWHART SHOW
November 22, 1975

"Over the River and Through the Woods," the craziest Bob Newhart Show episode of all time, begins sanely enough: Emily (Suzanne Pleshette) announces her intention to visit her family in Puget Sound over the Thanksgiving holiday; psychiatrist Bob begs off, saying he wants to be available to his neurotic patient, the endlessly depressed and depressing Mr. Carlin. But Carlin can't be happy unless he's making others miserable, so he invites himself over to watch football with Bob, Jerry (Bonerz), and ever-present neighbor Howard (Daily). Of course, there are certain customs that must be observed. "We take a slug of this every time the other team scores," says Jerry, offering an enormous jug of grain alcohol to Bob. Soon things get loco; it's a high-scoring game. Smashed, starving, and facing a frozen turkey, the boys consider cooking the bird at 2,000 degrees for a half hour -- but the oven only heats to 500. "Then we'll use four ovens," suggests Howard. That's when they decide to call out for Chinese food -- to be precise, for Moo Goo Gai Pan (to be more precise, for Moo Goo Goo Goo Gai Pan). And lots of it. So much that it has to be delivered with a hand truck. Luckily for Bob, Emily arrives just in time to pick up the tab -- and put on a pot of coffee.

(100 Greatest TV epsiodes)

The unpleasant taste of his own medicine

Professor Bainbridge on "bullying" allegations brought by the Waxman.

Nobody in Congress knows more about using the power of a committee chairmanship to bully and intimidate witnesses than does Henry Waxman, who did it so well for so many years until the Gingrich Revolution finally put him on the sidelines.

Reminiscent of the whining by Senator Reid when his public record was revealed by the RNC:

Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid on Monday urged President Bush to stop the Republican National Committee from calling him an obstructionist and criticizing his Senate record, a tactic the GOP used to help defeat Reid's predecessor.

These Dems, apparently still in shock over being the minority party, are not liking having the shoe on the other foot. Based on their post-election scrambling, they had better get used to it.

Where do we get these guys?

I recommend a visit here for a little All-American inspiration.
The spirit of the American soldier, Marine, sailor and airman is simply awe inspiring.

Old guys like me used to worry about who would take on the future. No worries, now.

Bless them all!

And, in further celebration of bravery, honor the Marines for their heroic days on Iwo Jima, 60 years ago. Courage lives on.

The oops list

It's an odd collection of disasters that have happened or are about to happen and it's the "The oops list" Warning: For those with time on their hands.

Samples:

Non-Governmental Organizations and the peacekeeper

StrategyPage has some interesting comments on NGOs and how they work here.

The NGOs, as they have taken over the delivery of foreign aid during the last half century, have also become part of the problems they are trying to treat. Despite their description as “non-profits” and “relief workers,” the NGOs live from contract to contract. While “non-profit,” they are not “non-revenue.” They have to bring in contracts to take care of their payroll and expenses. This has become an issue in some of the countries where NGOs operate. The locals have been noticing how much of the aid money given to their country is going through the NGOs, and how the NGOs use a lot of it to pay NGO expenses, and generally distribute the aid as they feel best, without a lot of consulting with the locals. But a major reason so many donor nations prefer to give aid via NGOs is that it cuts down on corruption. In too many poor countries getting emergency aid, local officials are quick to divert aid to personal use. 

It was an eye widening experience for me to learn the NGO "game" - that many of them were out ot get UN and other contracts to manage certain aspects of refugee problems (like camps, mine clearance, water, etc) and that these contracts provide funding that does not all go to the "victims." My observations in Kosovo were that some agencies (including UN agencies) had the latest in SUVs and other equipment, while others drove older trucks and cars. It may be a matter of managing resources, but I always felt better if dealing with an NGO that had older, but still serviceable, equipment because I felt they were better stewards of the funds they had.

More on Wing in Ground

For some reason, probably because you can find almost anything on the internet, I continue to explore the world of wing in ground ship/planes. It seems that the idea sort of lost its luster, but some people never quite gave up on it. For example a Chinese company seems to believe.





And, according to this Getting more strategic lift: Wing-In-Ground effect craft:

China, a great power in the Pacific, is particularly interested in WIG Air-Mech technology. Chinese analysts attribute the following advantages to WIG craft over conventional ships and aircraft:

--Superb Mobility. A WIG Air-Mech craft travels above the water's surface to travel in the air whose density is 800 times less than that of water. This greatly decreases the drag exerted on ordinary vessels and greatly increases its speed. Fast transports have a top speed of 20 knots. A conventional warship has a maximum speed of 30 to 40 knots, and although the hulls of hydrofoil craft and hovercraft travel above the water, their hydrofoils and their aprons still come in contact with the water. Thus their speed is limited to between 70 and 80 knots or less. But a WIG Air-Mech craft can travel between 300 and 400 knots.

--Superb Airworthiness. A WIG craft can fly around bad weather or fly above a stormy sea. Since a WIG craft is not pounded by the storm waves it is remarkably seaworthy. It is also very airworthy.

--Ease of Operation. A WIG craft is controlled through its vertical rudder, its elevator, and its wing flaps. It is simpler to fly than an airplane, and it turns easily. The WIG craft's speed and altitude are easily controlled by the flaps.

--Economical operation. Pressure under the wings of a WIG craft increases greatly by flying fairly close to the water surface. Consequently, only 80 to 130 horsepower are required to propel each ton of weight. The large lift-drag ratio means that fuel-consumption is less and the cruising radius is expanded when compared to similar-sized aircraft. WIG craft are far superior to ordinary aircraft and helicopters in carrying capacity, speed, and cruising radius when using the same power.

--Convenient Maintenance. WIG craft do not need permanent shore bases. Unlike other high-speed craft, they are able to come ashore under their own power and do not need cranes or chutes. Furthermore, since they have no aprons, like hovercraft, maintenance is very convenient. WIG craft do not have to make a gliding takeoff from the water or land on the water like seaplanes. This lessens the corrosive effect of seawater on the hull.

--Diverse Flight Modes. Not only can WIG craft fly quickly and steadily above water, under radar detection but they can also fly above beaches, marshes, grasslands, deserts, glaciers, and snow-covered land.

--Flight Safety. Should the engines fail, the WIG craft can travel on the water like a conventional ship. They are stable craft, which have operated safely over the years. Some WIG craft vent their engine exhaust forward beneath the wings of the craft to create an increase in dynamic lift. This not only assists takeoff and improves amphibious performance, but also improves flight safety.

--Military applications. The speed, maneuverability, amphibious capability, and reduced signature of WIG craft are greater than that of other craft. Their fast, low-altitude approach may allow them to become the next generation of fast attack craft replacing hydroplanes and hydrofoils. Since WIG craft usually fly within 50 meters of the surface, they are in the radar sweep and search blind zone. The ultra-low altitude of WIG craft leaves no traces on the water surface and is difficult to detect by radar. WIG craft are not optically trackable from space like conventional surface ships. This greatly increases the concealment and surprise attack capabilities of the craft. This extraordinary concealment capability has extremely important military significance. WIG craft may be used as Air-Mech landing craft and for the rapid and effective movement of Heavy AFVs, Gavins/Ridgway and M8 Buford AGS Armored Fighting Vehicles and troops in a campaign. The low-flying altitude, the long cruising radius, and the AFV carrying-capacity of WIG craft are second to only ships. WIG craft are also suited for anti-submarine patrol craft, high-speed minelayers, minesweepers, and rescue craft.

FuturePundit discussed WIG back in 2002 here

And, Boeing has explored the world of WIG - with the Pelican: here, here and the Boeing site: here

"The Pelican can broaden the range of missions for which airplanes are the favored way to deliver cargo," said Boeing's Pelican program manager Blaine Rawdon, who is designing the plane with Boeing engineer Zachary Hoisington. "It is much faster than ships at a fraction of the operational cost of current airplanes. This will be attractive to commercial and military operators who desire speed, worldwide range and high throughput. We envision that the Pelican can multiply aircraft's 1-percent share in a commercial market now dominated by container ships."


John Skorupa, senior manager of strategic development for Boeing Advanced Airlift and Tankers, said, "The Pelican currently stands as the only identified means by which the U.S. Army can achieve its deployment transformation goals of deploying one division in five days, or five divisions in 30 days, anywhere in the world." If necessary, he said, the Pelican could carry 17 M-1 main battle tanks on a single sortie. Commercially, the aircraft's size and efficiency would allow it to carry types of cargo equivalent to those carried by container ships, at more than 10 times the speed.

"It is attracting interest as a mother ship for unmanned vehicles, enabling rapid deployment of a network-centric warfare grid, a likely future mode of operation for modernized U.S. forces as demonstrated in Afghanistan," Skorupa said. "And it is attracting interest as a potential first-stage platform for piggybacking reusable space vehicles to an appropriate launch altitude.

"Why would such a huge airplane be flown at such a low altitude?

By flying low, the Pelican, like its name-sake, exploits the aerodynamic benefits of a well-known phenomenon called ground effect. Flying close to water, the wing downwash angle and tip vortices are suppressed, resulting in a major drag reduction and outstanding cruise efficiency.

"It's an effect that provides extraordinary range and efficiency," Skorupa said. "With a payload of 1.5 million pounds, the Pelican could fly 10,000 nautical miles over water and 6,500 nautical miles over land.

"Flying in ground effect demands the latest flight control technology, conceded Skorupa. Reliable systems will provide precise, automatic altitude control and collision avoidance. Cruise altitude will be adjusted according to sea state, and if the seas get too rough, the Pelican can easily climb to high altitude to continue the flight.

For the military, of course, it's all about getting there in a hurry with a lot of stuff, although having to have a "landing field" to handle the Pelican's landing gear may prove a non-starter.

And, don't forget there have been a few other aviation ideas that didn't quite pan out.

The Return of the Gyroplane?

The Army may be thinking outside the box. Here's a possible replacement for the C-130 - a return to the Gyroplane as presented by CarterAviationTechnologies.com

And the Navy, too, according to Sea Power

The Pentagon Office of Force Transformation and the Navy's fleet readiness and logistics office are assessing a 50-year-old technology to fill one of the biggest gaps in a naval warfighting concept for the future. The heliplane, a hybrid craft with both a rotor and wings, might be a way to provide the fleet with heavy lift "connectors" to rapidly move troops and materiel from ships at sea to tactical units ashore.


A key to the Navy's sea basing concept is for a craft that can lift a 40,000-pound cargo container and move it quickly to forward units. The idea behind sea basing is that U.S. forces sent to world hot spots will operate from the sea rather than building supply depots and headquarters ashore. Striking from ships at least 25 miles from shore, they would avoid traditional battlefront tactics and rely on the elements of high-speed strike, maneuver and surprise to force adversaries into a reactive posture. However, the services lack the fast, powerful "connectors" necessary to make that happen.


Arthur K. Cebrowski, director of the Office of Force Transformation, recently told reporters, "There are some things that we are keenly interested in. One of them is work on a gyrocopter. We stopped research on gyrocopters a long time ago, but right now there are people who believe" - and have demonstrated with a small-scale flying prototype - "that we may be able to lift upwards of 70,000 pounds at 450 knots and fly it over 30,000 feet and do vertical takeoff and landing."


The concept of which Cebrowski spoke is a proposed design by Carter Aviation Technologies of Wichita Falls, Texas. The design, called a Carter Heliplane Transport 150 (CHT-150), is a craft the size of a C-130 cargo plane. The heliplane is based on gyroplane technology in which a rotor is used for vertical and slow-speed flight. When cruising at high speeds, the wing provides all the lift, Carter Aviation said. The heliplane has long wings for efficient cruise, a four-blade rotor for hover and slow-speed flight, and two 24-foot-diameter lightweight pusher propellers for forward propulsion.


In flight, the heliplane gradually transfers lift and flight functions from the rotor to the wings. "A rotor is a very efficient device for providing lift at low speeds, but its drag increases rapidly" if the rotor must continue to support the aircraft as it picks up speed, according to a statement on the company's website. As the wings produce more of the lift, the rotor slows down, decreasing drag.

It's not pretty:



But it can carry the goods.



It may have non-military uses.



Update: Another company in the Gyroplane competition: Groen Brothers
which even proposes converting C-130's to autodynes



And the use for "sea-basing":



Hey, it's all about logistics.

Syrian Armed Force Purge

Interesting take on changes in the Syrian armed forces from the DEBKAfile. Sample:

Our military sources note that, for the relatively modest investment of $45 million to $60 million a year, Iran has acquired control over the most sophisticated sectors of Syria’s military industries. They are available as Tehran’s backdoor suppliers of missiles, non-conventional weapons and ammunition for any contingency, such as the Iranian armed forces or a surrogate, like the Hizballah, being called upon to fight in a part of the Middle East that is far from the Islamic Republic’s borders.

DEBKAfile’s military analysts note that while the Syrian army is not directly mixed up in US-insurgent warfare in Iraq, its military intelligence remains a separate and potent instrument of the Assad regime’s strategic policies. This entity is currently proactive on four fronts:

1. Iraq. Syrian military intelligence supports the Baathist guerrilla campaign by recruiting, training and dispatching combatants to Iraq from among the terrorist groups Assad sponsors such as the Lebanese Hizballah and such radical Palestinian organizations as the Jihad Islami and Jibril’s Popular Front – General Command. Recruiting also takes place in Syrian city slum districts and among Palestinian refugee camp inmates with Syrian citizenship.

NASA rejects claims about life on Mars

MSNBC - NASA rejects claims about life on Mars

NASA on Friday issued an unusual denial of a report that its researchers saw strong evidence for life's existence on present-day Mars, based in part on atmospheric methane readings. Other scientists involved in Mars research said the jury was still out on the meaning of Martian methane, but they agreed that preliminary findings are well worth a follow-up.

Well, I didn't put the methane there.

Cosmic Explosion Hits Earth, Alters Climate, Bush to Blame

MSNBC - Brightest galactic flash ever detected hits Earth :

A huge explosion halfway across the galaxy packed so much power it briefly altered Earth's upper atmosphere in December, astronomers said Friday.

I just made up the stuff about Bush to make some people feel more comfortable here. "He didn't sign the Kyoto Treaty!"

Oil, Sea Lanes and Navies

International Herald Tribune says India joins China in a worldwide rush for oil and gas

Now India is joining China in a stepped-up contest for energy, with both economies booming while their domestic oil production sags. China is now the world's second-largest energy consumer, trailing only the United States. India has moved into fourth place, behind Russia.
China and India are also expanding their navies as they become increasingly dependent on lines of oil tankers from the Middle East, posing the beginnings of an eventual challenge to U.S. influence in the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea.

(emphasis added)

See here and the section about China here.

Update: More thoughts- The Big Picture notes China's Oil Grab in its dealings with Venzuela and Russia.

Don't forget its action in the Sudan (one reason why Darfur gets no UN traction) and its deal with Iran.

China is looking out for China.

Update: Chrenkoff highlights posts on bloggers who note "It's a dangerous world out there." Interesting to note that China's growth and demands for raw materials plays a role. As noted in the links above, China has deals with Iran, Sudan, Venezuela, Russia, and a lot of other places. Of particular interest to me from a naval point of view is some of the material gathered by Chuck Simmins here:

What, then, are the specific challenges? Jiang Zhijun saidt hat in view of the fact that the primary task of China’s naval defense force, as stipulated by China’s national interests, is to complete the reunification process with Taiwan. At the same time, the naval force is also entrusted with the protection of China’s maritime rights and interests against possible invasion and damage, and to safeguard China’s rapidly growing export-oriented economy. Further, the drastically changed modern day warfare has also meant that long-range precision attacks characterizing high technology warfare will pose another grim threat to China’s defense of the territorial seas.

With Taiwan in hand, the Pacific Ocean will become China’s open field to the East

China is the only major country in today’s world that has not been unified. If China were to become strong, it would have to complete the grand task of reunification. The strategic importance of Taiwan simply can not be over-stated. Jiang Zhijun noted that the present state of China’s maritime security is rather grave. Generally speaking, the defense proficiency is not good, the level of defense combat effectiveness is low and there is little initiative control power.

China’s territorial waters are mostly composed of enclosed or semi-enclosed areas surrounded by the “first island chain”. Looking from north to south, apart from the South China Sea, all of China’s sea territory directly faces east towards the Pacific Ocean. The distance of most of the “first island chain” areas is no more than 200 nautical miles to China’s coast, which, in modern warfare, is within easy effective strike range. Locked in by the “first island chain” blockade, China’s sea defense force could hardly move beyond the boundary to carry out any meaningful defense operation. The only thing to do is to back up against the coastal lines to conduct shallow water defense. Since combat occurs right outside China’s doorway, China will be fighting close at home and is left with hardly any maneuver room to take operational initiative. Taiwan ought to be China’s natural gateway, but, if things went sour, it could then turn out to be other people’s stepping board for attacks against China.

Every big country bordering on both land and sea must have a safe exit point out to the waters. However, China’s exit point to the sea is questionable. It might not be a problem during times of peace, but during crisis, if the enemy country seals off the “first island chain,” then China would lose its exit way and the channel to connect to the outside world via the sea.

However, once the Taiwan issue is resolved, all the above strategic maritime safety concerns would automatically dissipate. Taiwan is China’s ideal seaward exit way bequeathed to us by our ancestors. As long as Taiwan is in China’s hand, then the Pacific would be an open area to China. Taiwan itself is a key link in the “first island chain”. After Taiwan is reunified with mainland China, this “first island chain” blockade will be broken, enabling the Chinese troops to expand their defense lines out to the Pacific in the East in order to better protect the safety of China’s coast and inland. By that time, the Taiwan Strait would become a safe and convenient route of communication for transporting troops and supplies between north and south.

In terms of China’s maritime rights and interests, Taiwan is also of immense significance. The issue of China’s maritime interests is addressed too late and the extensive degree of damage China has endured is rarely seen among other major countries of the world. Almost half of what should have always been Chinese territory according to international maritime laws have been forcefully taken away or invaded, the natural resources being looted routinely. Once the (Taiwan) reunification mission is completed, Diaoyu (Senkaku) Island to the North and the waters surrounding it would fall into the range of the Chinese gunfire protection. To the south, the distance from China’s coastal defense force to all the South China Sea islands and regions will be shortened by a big margin.

(source United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission)

Also worthy of noting:

Although Beijing's claims over Taiwan remain the focus of world attention, China is embroiled in unresolved territorial maritime and land issues with no less than 13 of its neighbours. Given that China's military capability is growing apace with its economy, the potential for military conflict over the disputed regions is similarly on the rise.

(also from Chick Simmins, original The Standard (China)

Those sea lanes? Let's go to the map again:



The red arrows point to places that China is working on to build up secure sea lanes for its raw materials.

It is a dangerous world.

How dangerous is North Korea?

Strategy Page has some thoughts on the topic in military news about Korea.

Despite North Korea's self-proclaimed nuclear weapons, Iran is still a bigger threat to the world, because Iran supports terrorism, even the Sunni terrorists who consider Iranian Shias to be heretics.  The North Koreans are mainly a threat to South Korea, China, Russia and Japan. These four nations are trying to get North Korea to behave, and either fix it's crumbling communist era economy, or collapse quietly and let South Korea take over. However, the people running North Korea (and no one outside the country is entirely sure exactly who that is) do not operate according to any normal logic. The constant fear is that North Korea, with its large, but weakening, armed forces, will somehow lash out and invade South Korea.

and

The most talked about threats, like missiles and nuclear weapons, are blown out of proportion. The North Koreans have basically taken the World War II German technology found in the SCUDs, and scaled it up to produce multi-stage missiles that can, possibly, reach halfway across the Pacific. But it is potential, at the moment, more than actual capability. The guidance system technology the North Koreans have is not first rate, and even the use of GPS for guidance is doubtful because of meager North Korean engineering resources. Moreover, there is the engineering required to make a nuclear weapon (theirs has not even been tested yet) work in a missile warhead. Their Taepo Dong 2 intercontinental missile has not been test fired yet. The Taepo Dong 1 has been used, which gives you something to work with. The range for the Taepo Dong 2 is an extrapolation (from 2,000 kilometers for the 1 to three times that for the Taepo Dong 2). It's much ado about nothing, unless it can reach the Alaska, Hawaii, or maybe US West Coast. Maybe.

Oh, yes, and, of course, a main source of revenue is exporting weapons:

The "No Dong" missiles have seen incremental improvements to assist their export program. The No Dong sales are a major source of hard currency. These missiles are basically improved SCUDs.

As I've said before, the DPRK is not in a good geographic location to be threatening the world. It is surrounded by greater powers and separated from its ancient enemy, Japan, by miles of ocean which it cannot hope to reach across except by missiles. However, such an attack on Japan will be dealt with pretty roughly.



North Korea is like the grade school bully who is just annoying enough to shake some lunch money loose just to keep him quiet, but runs the real risk of making some bigger, stronger kid mad enough to put him in his place. I like the Strategy Page's concluding sentences:

The North Korean leadership has a lot to be afraid of, but the United States is only one of many objects of terror for them. It's gotten to the point where North Korean generals are not sure their troops would follow through if ordered to attack the south. So there you have it. Unreliable troops and missiles, untested nukes and a North Korean population that is starving to death. And none to happy with their present leaders. Perhaps it's no surprise that the North Korean leadership acts a bit mad. They have a lot to be mad about.

Update; Captain's Quarters reports that North Korea may have backed off another hard line stance herein their game of international blackmail.