Crimes Against Shipping in 2021 to Date

The ICC's International Maritime Bureau provides an invaluable source of locating the "hot spots" of criminal and other activity affecting shipping at its IMB Piracy & Armed Robbery Map 2021, from which these screenshots are taken:

Overview - the key at the top pertains to all images below.

Southeast Asia

Singapore Strait

Africa/Middle East

Gulf of Guinea Region

Americas and Caribbean

If you are interested in reading the reports which generate these maps the IMB's Live Piracy & Armed Robbery Report 2021 maintains a running log of all such events.

The IMB is to be commended for its excellent work in this area, amd reminds that piracy and sea robbery and other threats to shipping are an on-going problem.

The Signing of the Declaration of Independence - "You Are There" (1953)

Saturday Is Old Radio Day- Cavalcade of America Henry Fonda in "The Spy on the Kilocycles" (1945)

Friday Film: "The Second Seat" Naval Flight Officer Training from 1960's

Donald Rumsfeld: “ ‘Well done, good and faithful servant!"

Excellent piece by his former speechwriter here:

Rumsfeld was one of the last of the old-school public servants, who was kind to people in small, quiet ways; who helped a loved one cope with crippling drug addiction while simultaneously managing a war; who was friends with people ranging from the Kennedys to the Cheneys to Sammy Davis, Jr. and could put politics and policies aside to value them as people.

Mr. Rumsfeld was kind enough to join us on Midrats in April 2011.

In this time of demanding instant gratification, it's worth remembering one of his "Rumsfeld Rules"

Strategy doesn’t begin at one point and end at another. It involves planning and evaluation, requiring trade-offs and decisions along the way. It takes work, thought, and time.

His website can be found here.

Drought: Western U.S.

When is a drought a national security issue? When it's severe enough to threaten national security, especially transportation, crop production, cities and towns, and regional military training and safety.

Map from here.

 

The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.

Another interesting look from NASA at the levels of water "stored" in soil here:

The map below shows surface soil moisture as of March 29, 2021, as measured by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) satellites. The colors depict the wetness percentile; that is, how the levels of soil moisture compare to long-term records for the month. Blue areas have more abundant water than usual, and orange and red areas have less. The darkest reds represent dry conditions that should occur only 2 percent of the time (about once every 50 years).

The map below shows shallow groundwater storage as of March 29, 2021, as measured by the GRACE-FO satellites. The colors depict how the amount of groundwater compares to long-term records (1948-2010). Groundwater in aquifers is an important resource for crop irrigation and drinking water, and it also can sustain streams during dry periods. Groundwater takes months to rebound from drought, though, as it has to be slowly and steadily replenished by surface moisture that seeps down through soil and rock to the water table.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports on California water supply issues with the last report being from May 2021 (pdf):

As California enters the dry months of summer, this water year is on track to be one of the driest on record- due in no small measure to the lack of landfalling atmospheric rivers and persistent ridging/blocking over the Northeast Pacific Ocean (drought.gov). Statewide snowpack peaked on March 23rd with 64 percent its daily average, then shriveled to 17 percent of its daily average by the end of April, and to 7 percent by May 12th. Seasonal (October-April) precipitation totals were less than 50 percent of average in all three regions. Early May has been extremely dry, further reducing the seasonal average. California’s major reservoirs (excluding Lake Mead and Lake Powell) are collectively storing almost 8.5 million acre-feet less than they were this time last year. **** RESERVOIRS Total storage in California’s major reservoirs (excluding Lake Powell and Lake Mead) was 73 percent of average on April 30th, compared to 101 percent this time last year. Storage in Shasta Dam was 59 percent of average at the end of the month, roughly 1.4 million acre-feet less than this time last year. Storage in Lake Mead continues to decline, with reservoir levels approaching the 1,075-foot elevation that would trigger a Level 1 Water Shortage Declaration for the Lower Colorado River Basin.

here:

CA Water Supply Outlook Rep... by lawofsea

As near as I can determine, that "Level 1 Water Shortage Declaration" comes from Interim Guidelines for the Operation of Lake Powell and Lake Mead

D. Shortage Conditions 1. Deliveries to the Lower Division States during Shortage Condition Years shall be implemented in the following manner:

• a. In years when Lake Mead content is projected to be at or below elevation 1,075 feet and at or above 1,050 feet on January 1, a quantity of 7.167 maf shall be apportioned for consumptive use in the Lower Division States of which 2.48 maf shall be apportioned for use in Arizona and 287,000 af shall be apportioned for use in Nevada in accordance with the Arizona-Nevada Shortage Sharing Agreement dated February 9, 2007, and 4.4 maf shall be apportioned for use in California. 
• b. In years when Lake Mead content is projected to be below elevation 1,050 feet and at or above 1,025 feet on January 1, a quantity of 7.083 maf shall be apportioned for consumptive use in the Lower Division States of which 2.4 maf shall be apportioned for use in Arizona and 283,000 af shall be apportioned for use in Nevada in accordance with the Arizona-Nevada Shortage Sharing Agreement dated February 9, 2007, and 4.4 maf shall be apportioned for use in California. 
• c. In years when Lake Mead content is projected to be below elevation 1,025 feet on January 1, a quantity of 7.0 maf shall be apportioned for consumptive use in the Lower Division States of which 2.32 maf shall be apportioned for use in Arizona and 280,000 af shall be apportioned for use in Nevada in accordance with the Arizona-Nevada Shortage Sharing Agreement dated February 9, 2007, and 4.4 maf shall be apportioned for use in California.

According to Lakesonline.com, Lake Mead's level on 27 June 2021 was 1,069.42 Feet MSL, about 160 feet below "full pool."

A "maf" is a Million Acre Feet"

One acre-foot equals about 326,000 gallons, or enough water to cover an acre of land, about the size of a football field, one foot deep.

So, a million acre feet would cover 1 million football fields with 1 foot of water each. In 2018, California applied 24.5 million acre feet of water to 8.4 million acres of irrigated land, according to the USDA.

If this drought continues in the west, where will the water come from to provide water to the large cities and farmland of the region? What will a shortage do to food costs? What step should be taken to to prevent a catastrooic failure of water supply?

Orange County, California, has a program that is helping as set out here:

This project is the world's largest wastewater purification system for indirect potable reuse. The Groundwater Replenishment System (GWRS) takes highly treated wastewater that would have previously been discharged into the Pacific Ocean and purifies it using a three-step advanced treatment process consisting of microfiltration, reverse osmosis and ultraviolet light with hydrogen peroxide. The process produces high-quality water that exceeds all state and federal drinking water standards. Operational since January 2008, this state-of-the-art water purification project can produce up to 70 million gallons (265,000 cubic meters) of high-quality water every day. This is enough water to meet the needs of nearly 600,000 residents in north and central Orange County, California.

Other entities in California are turning to desalination Desalination Is Booming as Cities Run out of Water :

Some 30 miles north of San Diego, along the Pacific Coast, sits the Claude “Bud” Lewis Carlsbad Desalination Plant, the largest effort to turn salt water into fresh water in North America.

Each day 100 million gallons of seawater are pushed through semi-permeable membranes to create 50 million gallons of water that is piped to municipal users. Carlsbad, which became fully operational in 2015, creates about 10 percent of the fresh water the 3.1 million people in the region use, at about twice the cost of the other main source of water.

Expensive, yes, but vital for the fact that it is local and reliable. “Drought is a recurring condition here in California,” said Jeremy Crutchfield, water resources manager at the San Diego County Water Authority. “We just came out of a five-year drought in 2017. The plant has reduced our reliance on imported supplies, which is challenging at times here in California. So it’s a component for reliability.”

A second plant, similar to Carlsbad, is being built in Huntington, California with the same 50-million-gallon-a-day capability. Currently there are 11 desalination plants in California, and 10 more are proposed.

Not everyone is thrilled with desalination, pointing out that it requires great amounts of energy, as set out here and here. It should be noted that the "anti-desal" pieces are older than the startup of the San Diego Carlsbad plant.

Be that as it may, it's not like California's existing power issues are not well known, as set out California tells public to prepare for heatwave; power prices soar:

The group responsible for North American electric reliability has already warned that California is the U.S. region most at risk of power shortages this summer because the state increasingly relies on intermittent energy sources like wind and solar, and as climate change causes more extreme heat events, drought and wildfires across the U.S. West.

It would seem California needs to rethink many issues, including nuclear power to help power a system that will help it survive droughts.

And it's not like the rest of the West and the farm belt aren't facing similar issues.

U.S. Navy Office of Naval Intelligence Worldwide Threat to Shipping (WTS) for 26 May - 23 June 2021

U.S. Navy Office of Naval I... by lawofsea

On Midrats 27 June 2021 - Episode 595: Pre-July 4th Melee

Please join us at 5pm EDT on 27 June 2021 for Midrats Episode 595: Pre-July 4th Melee

One week prior to the July 4th holiday, and it's time to catch up on the latest events in the maritime security arena ... and an arena it is.

We have a new SECNAV nom ... but no one is talking about it.

We have the CNO expending T-AKE amounts of personal, professional, and institutional capital defending quaint academic social theory, FORD enjoys a banging time at sea, and the Royal Navy enjoys a Russian air and sea spectacular!

...and that is just the first few things.

As always with our free for alls, we have an open chat room and open phone line to the studio for those who join us live ... so don't be shy.

If you use Apple Podcasts, and miss the show live, you can pick up this episode and others and add Midrats to your podcast list simply by going to here. Or on Spreaker. Or on Spotify.

Saturday Is Old Radio Day - Hopalong Cassidy "The Frightened Town"

Friday Film: "Destroyer Escort"

U.S. Navy Office of Naval Intelligence Worldwide Threat to Shipping (WTS) for 19 May - 16 June 2021

U.S. Navy Office of Naval I... by lawofsea

Saturday Is Old Radio Day - Richard Diamond "Red Rose" (1951)

Friday Film: Dive Bomber Physics

U.S. Navy Office of Naval Intelligence Worldwide Threat to Shipping (WTS) for 12 May - 9 June 2021

U.S. Navy Office of Naval I... by lawofsea

Saturday Is Old Radio Day: CBS Mystery Theater "Ninety Lives"

On Midrats 13 June 2021 - Episode 594: Small Island in Great Power Competition, with Alexander Gray

Please join us at 5pm (EDT) on 13 June 2021 for Midrats Episode 594: Small Island in Great Power Competition, with Alexander Gray

China is interested in a lot more than just the first or second island chain. In the vast reaches of the Pacific Ocean, the islands of Melanesia, Micronesia, and Polynesia are critical to the sea lines of communication for the economic powerhouses on both sides.

From the Age of Discovery to today, their importance rises to the top of any power who wished to influence the area.

To look at this area of returning importance with us for the full hour will be Alexander B. Gray.

The starting point for our conversation will be the issues he raised in two recent articles: How the US Can Protect the Sovereignty of the Smallest Pacific Island in The Diplomat, and Why a crisis in the Pacific islands matters for Washington and Beijing in The Hill.

Alex is a Senior Fellow in National Security Affairs at the American Foreign Policy Council, served as Director for Oceania & Indo-Pacific Security at the White House National Security Council from 2018-2019.

If you use Apple Podcasts, and miss the show live, you can pick up this episode and others and add Midrats to your podcast list simply by going to here. Or on Spreaker. Or on Spotify.

Friday Film: "They Got the Job Done" (1954)

If True, It's a Mistake: "It May Be the End of the Line for the Navy's Hypervelocity Projectile"

Reported at Military.com by Hope Hodge Seck It May Be the End of the Line for the Navy's Hypervelocity Projectile

The hypervelocity projectile, however, seemed to gain its own momentum after officials realized it could be paired not only with the railgun, but also with existing ship deck guns to provide high-speed, low-cost firepower.

The projectile's most recent public outing came in 2018, when the guided-missile destroyer Dewey fired 20 of the rounds from an Mk 45 deck gun during the massive Rim of the Pacific exercise.

"You can get 15 rounds a minute for an air defense mission, as well as a surface-to-surface mission," Bryan Clark, then of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, told USNI News in 2019. "That adds significant missile defense capacity when you think that each of those might be replacing a [Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile] or a [Rolling Airframe Missile]. They're a lot less expensive."

The story also noted that the gun-launched guided projectile, or GLGP, was being considered as a round for ground-based Army and Marine Corps 155mm howitzers.

But while GLGP might be less expensive than some missile systems, which can cost $1 million to $2 million per round, it was still far from cheap. A 2020 Congressional Research Service report noted that each of the rounds cost about $85,000 in 2018 dollars.

And despite the promise GLGP seemed to hold for a range of multi-service uses, the CRS report noted that fielding to ships would involve integrating the round with existing combat systems, and additional tests and war-gaming. After five years in development, these follow-on steps have yet to take place.

So, for $1,000,000, you could buy 11 of these rounds (@$90,000 each) and 22 for $2 million? And you can keep them in the ammo locker and reload at sea?

More here.

Way back in 2014, RADM Klunder, then Chief of Naval Research, spoke of the "rail gun" ammo cost here:

"This {the projectile} costs right here about $25,000," Klunder said.

Both the cost and size -- it weighs 23 pounds -- mean they can be bought and stored aboard ships by the hundreds.

"Someone may be sending a multimillion-dollar missile at us, and I'm going to take it out with a $25,000 projectile round," Klunder said. "I'll take that trade every single day."

Well, according to Ms. Seck's report, killing this projectile will save "$5.9 million." Wonder what the cost in ships and sailors might be?

See the 2018 CRS Report, Navy Lasers, Railgun, and Gun-Launched Guided Projectile: Background and Issues for Congress. here (emphasis added)

This report provides background information and issues for Congress on three new ship-based weapons being developed by the Navy—solid state lasers (SSLs), the electromagnetic railgun (EMRG),1and the gun-launched guided projectile (GLGP), also known as the hypervelocity projectile (HVP)—that could substantially improve the ability of Navy surface ships to defend themselves against surface craft, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and eventually anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs).

Any one of these three new weapons, if successfully developed and deployed, might be regarded as a “game changer” for defending Navy surface ships against enemy missiles and UAVs. If two or three of them are successfully developed and deployed, the result might be considered not just a game changer, but a revolution. Rarely has the Navy had so many potential new types of surface-ship air-defense weapons simultaneously available for development and potential deployment.

U.S. Navy Office of Naval Intelligence Worldwide Threat to Shipping (WTS) for 5 May - 2 June 2021

U.S. Navy Office of Naval I... by lawofsea

Saturday Is Old Radio Day: D-Day - The Allies Invade France (1944)