The Iran Deal: Sanctions Lifted with Threat of More Sanctions

So there is an Iran nuke deal

Iran and world powers capped a decade-long dispute by reaching a historic deal early Tuesday for Tehran to curb its nuclear program in exchange for the easing of economic sanctions.

The Islamic republic has been negotiating with the U.S., Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China for years, with diplomats most recently extending numerous deadlines in hopes of arriving at a workable and comprehensive plan.

President Barack Obama said the deal with Tehran ensures that "every pathway to a nuclear weapon" had been cut off.

"We have stopped the spread of nuclear weapons in this region," he said in an early-morning statement which — in a rare move — was carried on Iranian television.

Really?

Well, assume it's true. What's the downside to Iran if it cheats?

Obama said that if Iran violates the terms of the agreement, sanctions will be snapped back into place.

The deal is "not built on trust," he explained. "It is built on verification."

Oh my, more sanctions! I wonder if a strongly worded letter will accompany them?

And the sanctions?

The agreement includes the provision of a "snap back" mechanism that could lead to the reinstatement of sanctions within 65 days if Iran violates the terms of the deal, according to officials.

65 days is "snap back?"

Wow. No threat of immediate laying waste the countryside around Iran's nuke facilities and turning deserts into sheets of glass?

Alleged actual terms here.

Key phrase:

Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons.

Personally I would have made a violation of that provision an act of war and opened up all kinds of possibilities.

But that's just me.

The President issues his own threat about this deal, Obama threatens to veto any attempt to block Iranian nuclear deal. I guess that's a "red line" then, isn't it?

Must be a good deal, then.

North Korea: Malum in se

AFP reports "Japan seizes nuclear-related materials from N. Korea cargo":

Japan has seized aluminium alloy rods which can be used to make nuclear centrifuges from a Singapore-flagged ship which was carrying cargo from North Korea, a government spokesman said Monday.
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The rods had been stored at a private warehouse and the Japanese government ordered the firm Monday to hand them over.

It was the first such handover under a special law passed in 2010 to enable Tokyo to inspect North Korea-related ships suspected of carrying materials that could be used in nuclear and missile programmes.

According to media reports, the ship was on its way to Myanmar when it arrived in Tokyo via the Chinese port of Dalian.
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United Nations sanctions resolutions require member states to inspect cargo suspected to be linked to the North's nuclear development.

Myanmar was suspected of pursuing military and nuclear cooperation with North Korea during long years of junta rule which ended in 2011 in the Southeast Asian state.

Nice chaps, those North Koreans, except for all the evil their rotten government spreads or attempts to abet. . .

Years ago we had some sort of program in which we were attempting to bribe the NORKS into giving up their nuclear program by offering them food and nice words. Deep in my archives I have some posts I'll link to when I have more time. Right now, here's a "golden oldie" from 2008 North Korea talking "Preemptive strikes" and updates "Sea of Fire":

“Our military will not sit idle until warmongers launch a pre-emptive strike,” an unidentified military commentator said in a statement carried by the North’s official Korean Central News Agency. “Everything will be in ashes, not just a sea of fire, once our advanced pre-emptive strike begins.”

Yep, an "advanced pre-emptive strike."

It's not like they have been bashful about warning us, which brings me back to a more recent post Reality Bites: "Obama's Missile-Defense Reversal" in which is considered the sudden administration decision to bolster our Pacific missile defense systems . . .

On the other hand, someone in high places in having fun sending a warning of our own to Kim Jong Unpleaant, as set out in U.S. Flies B-52 Bombers Over South Korea:

The United States said it was flying training missions of nuclear-capable B-52 bombers over South Korea, in a clear signal to North Korea at a time of escalating military tensions.

The flights — part of annual joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises — should be seen as underscoring U.S. commitment and capacity to defend Seoul against an attack from the North, Pentagon spokesman George Little said.

In response to U.N. sanctions imposed after its third nuclear test last month, North Korea has warned of a “second Korean war” and threatened preemptive nuclear strikes on the South and the United States.
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“The B-52 Stratofortress can perform a variety of missions including carrying precision-guided conventional or nuclear ordnance,” he said Monday.
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“We’re drawing attention to the fact that we have extended deterrence capabilities that we believe are important to demonstrate in the wake of recent North Korean rhetoric,” he said.

Get the hint, there, Un? Let me be less subtle:

Of course, deterrence of this sort only works if the other side believes that they can't survive whatever is delivered to their doorstep or deep, deep bunkers. Still, worth a shot, so to speak.

Oh, "malum in se?" A little lawyer speak for a thing that is "evil in itself.".

Meanwhile North Korea restarts nuclear weapons program

Perhaps you missed the story -AFP: NKorea halts denuclearisation

North Korea said Tuesday it has stopped disabling its nuclear plants and will consider restoring them because the United States has failed to remove it from a terrorism blacklist.

The communist state accused the US of an "outright violation" of a six-nation nuclear disarmament deal and said work to make the plutonium-producing plants at Yongbyon unusable had halted on August 14.

"Secondly, the DPRK (North Korea) will consider soon a step to restore the nuclear facilities in Yongbyon to their original state as strongly requested by its relevant institutions," said a foreign ministry spokesman.

The US says the North must accept strict procedures to verify the declaration it made in June of its nuclear activities before it can be taken off the blacklist, which blocks US economic aid.

Real analysis at

Pyongyang plays a wild card:

The timing of Pyongyang's announcement that North Korea intends to resume its development of nuclear warheads was either uncannily brilliant, or incredibly dumb.

Coming in the midst of the Democratic national convention in Denver, the statement from the North Korean Foreign Ministry had American officials talking, but was barely noted after a brief flurry of reports that the North had "suspended" the dismantlement of its nuclear program.

So much for that televised image of the blowing-up of the cooling tower at the Yongbyon nuclear complex two months ago. And so much for the pronouncements that North Korea had moved on to the "next stage" of the nuclear agreement of February 2007, and would soon be ready to get rid of its whole nuclear program.

North Korea can go about reversing the perceived progress engendered in recent months and then present Bush with a full-blown nuclear crisis before he steps down near in January.

Then it will be up to Bush's successor to decide whether he's willing to go through a serious escalation of tension on the Korean Peninsula while also attempting to make good on promises to get out of Iraq. It's just possible that Obama's first gesture as president would be to strike North Korea's name off the terror list in a show of dedication to the peace process - and a slight at Bush for having been so stubborn.

Whatever happens, though, North Korea is not going to submit to a process of "verification" of what it's doing just appease the American perception of what's meant by its promises to go "non-nuclear". As the North Korean Foreign Ministry statement noted, the North is not about to yield to the "brigandish demand" of the Americans and submit to a "house search" like those that American troops conduct in Iraq.

The frankness of North Korea's refusal of an acceptable "verification protocol" would appear to fly in the face of all the sweet talk between Hill and North Korea's nuclear envoy, Kim Kye-gwan. It's always possible, however, that North Korea is engaging in an enormous bluff - and is not actually intent on rebuilding nuclear warheads.

Read the whole thing...

North Korea: Odd Agreement for "Peace in Our Time?"

DPRK Studies has a couple of posts which may raise more questions in your mind than answers starting with Traces of Highly Enriched Uranium Found on North Korean Plutonium Documents and followed with North Korea Blows-up Nuclear Reactor Cooling Tower, to Reap Benefits of Pseudo Engagement:

Considering the reasons behind requiring a nuclear declaration from Pyongyang, what was provided is utterly insufficient and accepting it represents a complete failure of the Bush administration and the Six-Party Talks process.

Read all the links, too.

Potemkin Village arms agreements? Great.