U.S. Navy Office of Naval Intelligence Worldwide Threat to Shipping (WTS) for 14 November 2019 - 18 December 2019 and HORN OF AFRICA/GULF OF GUINEA/SOUTHEAST ASIA Weekly Piracy Update for 12 to 18 December 2019

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Failed Missile Tests

The news isn't that the tests failed, but rather that these countries are working on these weapons.

Iran missile test fails from sub in Strait of Hormuz says Times of Israel

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Iran attempted an unsuccessful test launch on Tuesday of a cruise missile from a submarine in the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

Two US officials told Fox News that an Iranian Yono-class “midget” submarine conducted the missile launch, but the test failed.

North Korea is the only other country that operates this kind of sub, according to the report.

The report did not detail the size or range of the missile or its warhead payload.

Last month, Iran’s navy deployed new anti-ship missiles, called Nasir, boasting that they could be fired from land or ship-based launchers. The cruise missile was test fired during the “Velayat 95” Iranian military drills in the Persian Gulf in February.

CNN reports North Korean missile test fails, US and South Korea say:

An attempted missile launch by North Korea on Sunday failed, US and South Korean defense officials told CNN.

The attempted launch occurred a day after the regime of Kim Jong Un showed off a bevy of new missiles and launchers at a large-scale military parade on its most important holiday.
A South Korean defense official said the action took place in Sinpo, a port city in eastern North Korea. That was the site of a ballistic missile test earlier this month in which the projectile fell into the Sea of Japan, also known as the East Sea.

Here's a video of a successful sub launch in 2015 thanks to CNN:

North Korea: Oil and Gas Powerhouse?

Interesting piece at The National Interest "Could North Korea Be the Next Energy Superpower?" which has the nice subtitle, "Pyongyang's advances in oil and natural gas could help fuel a still-ambitious military" which nicely sums up the strategic concerns raised. Of course, there is this -

However, the lack of recent reported investment suggests Western companies have been reluctant to invest in the totalitarian state, which remains subject to international sanctions over its nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programs from the United Nations, as well as from the United States, Britain, Canada, China and Japan.
***
The prospect of the North Korean military having access to plentiful new supplies of oil and gas will send shivers down the spine of governments from Seoul to Tokyo and beyond. Fortunately, it appears the regime’s goal of opening up its reserves appears just a pipe dream for now.

Nice pun, there.

Perhaps their Iranian friends would like to try breaking some more sanctions because the NORKS would need all kinds of help to produce anything.

Friday Film: "The Rise of the Soviet Navy" (1969) and other stuff

In the current national security environment, where there are so many players who seem to be taking advantage of perceived weakness or indifference on the U.S. part, there is value in looking back - because "everything old is new again:"





Oh, yes, there is the military rise of China, covered by Stratfor here:

When evaluating a force, you have to measure it against what mission it is trying to accomplish and against what adversarial force it may face, as well as its ability to effectively coordinate and support its assets. The Chinese military is now expanding from a very low capacity, from a military designed largely for internal security, and one characterized by the predominance of the ground forces over the air and naval forces. Further, the Chinese military should not be looked at as trying to match the U.S. military in global capabilities. For China, its primary interest is its own region, where there are numerous security issues at play, even excluding the United States.

Distance provides the Chinese with some strength over the United States in the West Pacific, but that same geography also places China's resources in a very active region with diffuse potential threats. This leaves the Chinese having to focus on three levels of potential security concerns: small weaker states; Japan and Russia (its two potential peer competitors); and the distant but regionally present United States, which remains the only global power. In designing its grand strategy, doctrine and force structure, China has to balance how it would ideally handle any combination of the three.

But, hey, the Admiral Harris, head of the U.S. Pacific Command also has his eye on the North Koreans:

North Korea and its unpredictable leader are U.S. Pacific Command’s biggest worries, Navy Adm. Harry Harris Jr. told the Military Reporters and Editors Association here yesterday.

Harris, who has commanded U.S. Pacific Command since May, gave reporters and editors an update on the progress of the military rebalance to the Pacific.

Harris stopped in Washington on his way to the Australia-United States Ministerial in Boston.

“The greatest threat that I face on a day-to-day basis is the threat from North Korea, because you have an unpredictable leaders who is in complete command of his country and his military,” Harris said.

KimJong Un is “on a quest for nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them intercontinentally,” he said, adding that Un “poses a very real threat to the 28,000 Americans in South Korea, the nation of South Korea, Japan and on and on.”

“At some point in the future, as he develops his capability, North Korea will present a very real threat to Hawaii and the rest of the United States,” Harris continued. “Now, I have to be ready from a position of strength to deal with North Korea and we are ready to deal … any time that Kim Jong Un decides to act.”

Of course, there was stuff on China (oddly enough, Russia never seems to come up as a Pacific power):

Harris reiterated that U.S. involvement in the region is not aimed at containing China. The rebalance is about U.S. recognition of the increased importance of the region to Main Street U.S.A. Simply put, security in the region has means prosperity, he said.

“It’s in the best interests of the United States that we continue to embrace and enhance our relationships with everyone in the region including China,” Harris said. “While I’ve been known to be critical of China’s provocative military activities these past two years … I will also acknowledge when China has been helpful, such as China’s counterpiracy efforts off the Horn of Africa and the search for the Malaysian airliner off the coast of Australia.”

The admiral will meet with Chinese military leaders next month and he will “maximize” these areas of cooperation and agreement, while trying to work through areas where the United States and China disagree, he said.

Harris is prepared to continue the conversation with Chinese leaders. “Obviously one of the topics of on-going discussions is my continuing concern with what I call China’s ‘sand castles in the sea’ in disputed waters of the South China Sea,” he said. “Militarization by any claimant in the area makes it harder to resolve disagreements diplomatically.”

Harris will not discuss future operations in his area of responsibility, but he referred reporters to his testimony before the Senate earlier this year. “To reaffirm our ironclad commitment to international law, I think we must exercise freedom of navigation operations throughout the region and throughout the globe,” he said.

He also said he told a regional chiefs of defense meeting -- which included China -- at his headquarters in Hawaii two weeks ago that the United States “will continue to fly and sail and operate anywhere -- anywhere that international law allows.”

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.

Friday Fun Film: "Duck and Cover" (1951)

"We all know the atomic bomb is very dangerous . . ."



See North Korean Threat: EMP? Death by Threats?.

And U.S. Confirms North Korean Sub Missiles:

The commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, in charge of U.S. nuclear missile forces, confirmed on Thursday that North Korea is developing a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).
***
The comments were the first official U.S. government confirmation that North Korea is working on a new underwater missile capability and comes as the regime in Pyongyang has tested nuclear weapons and claims to have miniaturized a weapon to fit on top of a missile.

Duck and cover? Better have a better plan than that.

Fun with North Korea: Private Company Submits to Blackmail, Setting Stage for Other Demands

Current DPRK Kim-in-Charge. A/K/A "Chubby"

The really, really impressive DPRK hacks Sony Pictures Entertainment and threatens to use its mighty power to "create a sea of fire" (a standard NoRK threat) or its equivalent and kill every single person who decides to go watch a movie:

The Sony hacking saga took a sinister turn on Tuesday when hackers sent a message threatening to target theaters showing “The Interview” in a 9/11-type attack.

As we all now know, Sony has decided not to expose its customers to such a threat and pulled the movie.

From a corporate liability view, I get it.

On the other hand, who will line up next to threaten movie and television studios about the content of their shows? Russia? Iran? Pakistan? China? al Qaeda? The Taliban? Boko Haram? Hamas?


The list is almost endless.

So, I would guess this includes pretty much anyone who doesn't like to be portrayed in a negative light.

Or, at least, in a light that they feel is negative.

Looks like Hollywood writers need to get working harder on more "space alien" movies where the bad guys come from very far away.

At least until the Gbaba show up.

On the other hand, we could, oh, I don't know, stand up to this sort of bullying effort. Otherwise, you can pretty much kiss freedom of speech good-bye because of a heckler's veto - which you might remember from the excuses rationale offered for the Benghazi attack.

Despite the way in which we seem to submit to threats, we really are not 98-pound weaklings. Just confused a little because we forget our values. "Millions for defense, but not one cent for tribute" expressing one of them.

By the way, I wonder if the current Kim-in-Charge would like us to -um- censor his often looney comments about the world by, oh, threatening the future existence of the worst regime on the planet if he opens his yap again? After all, we technically are still at war with the DPRK.

Just sayin' . . .

Meanwhile, I think Team America is available on Netflix and Amazon. On my list for tonight's film.

Or even in a theater in Texas. UPDATE: Paramount has now pulled the plug on showing Team America - even in Texas. The next time any Hollywood idiot starts to talk about "courage" and "freedom of speech" just walk away. No point it listening to such babble from cowards.

Trust me, Chubby Kim, you do not want to mess with Texas. Messing with Hollywood is much easier, apparently.

Friday Fun Film: "Carrier Action Off Korea (1954)"

Naval aviation during the Korean War is the subject of this 1954 documentary. Part 1 begins with footage of the armistice signed on 27 July 1953. The film then moves back in time to look at the first half of the war, and the impact of American aircraft carriers operating off the coast of Korea. It features extensive aerial footage of combat operations. Source: Naval History and Heritage Command, Photographic Section, UMO-18.

North Korea: Overthrow or Just "Health Issues" at the Top?

When dictators go missing, rumors fly, as reported by North Korea News in September: Kim Jong Un a virtual no-show: Kim’s absence, continuing position changes lead to uncertainty and speculation about the regime:

As of October 3, North Korea’s Supreme Leader

KJU in the land of the funny hats and haircuts

Kim Jong Un has officially been missing from public view for 30 days, his longest absence ever. This has, as expected, led to many questions and speculation about what’s happened to Kim and what it means for the regime in Pyongyang.
***
It didn’t take long for observers to notice the unusual lack of state media appearances by Kim and, consequently, to begin questioning it. A rumor soon spread that Kim, who allegedly developed a fondness for Swiss Ementaller cheese while studying abroad there, had imported large quantities to North Korea for his own personal consumption. Kim was also seen sporting a limp since July. This, combined with his physical size, smoking habit, and rumored love of cheese, has led to speculation that Kim may be afflicted with gout, which often causes pain in the joints of the feet and ankles.

Pyongyang did, uncharacteristically, publicly announce that Kim was indeed suffering from health problems, but they provided no details. North Korea later denied rumors that Kim underwent ankle surgery.

This situation has additionally led to speculation about who is currently in charge in Pyongyang and whether or not there will be any major change in the structure of the regime. The Seoul-based think tank North Korea Intellectuals Solidarity (NKIS) suggested that Kim Yo Jong, Kim Jong Un’s younger sister, may presently be responsible for running the regime while her brother is being treated for his health problems.

More on why this "known unknown" is a bad thing at The National Interest After Kim: Why the Mystery Surrounding North Korea is a Very Bad Thing:

Today, talk is rife that North Korea’s Kim Jong-un might be about to undergo the same fate as Khrushchev. To be sure, experts downplay the likelihood that Kim has been or will be overthrown. Yet the recent flurry of conjecture about North Korea’s future only highlights the extent to which outsiders do not know what takes place along Pyongyang’s corridors of power. The level of uncertainty is far beyond even that which characterized U.S.-Soviet relations during the Cold War and makes it almost impossible for the United States, South Korea and others to develop judicious policies for handling the infamously volatile North Korean regime.

Hope the ROK is on alert.

Yes, even with the new agreements to talk with the NORKs, South and North Korea Agree to New Talks:

South and North Korea agreed on Saturday to resume high-level talks this year, raising hopes for a thaw in the long-tense relations on the divided Korean Peninsula.
***
The North Korean delegation’s visit and the agreement to resume talks were all the more unexpected, given the North’s recent vitriol toward the South Korean president, Park Geun-hye. On Thursday, the North called Ms. Park “a rabid dog” after she vowed that pressing the North to end human rights abuses would be a key goal of her government.

The two Koreas have technically been at war since the Korean War ended in 1953 with a truce rather than a peace treaty, and their relationship has been particularly sour during the past few years. But signs of a possible thaw have emerged in recent months.

North Korea: Power Struggle at the Top

The Current Kim-in-Charge of the NORKS

It could be the sign of a long winter in North Korea, as  the wooly caterpillar heads begin to roll including Kim Jong-un's uncle, as reported by the BBC in "North Korea powerbroker 'dismissed'":

A powerful uncle of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has been removed from his post, South Korean media reports say.

Citing South Korea's intelligence agency, they say Chang Song-thaek, 67, lost his position as vice-chairman of the North's top military body.

Two close aides were also executed for corruption, according to the reports.

The NORK management style seems to allow the leader to point the finger at everyone else for the failures and failings of major domestic and international issues.

The current Kim-in-Power wants to be make sure he is the "Un and only."

North Korea: Cheat and Smuggle

See photo info below

The Wall Street Journal says a North Korean ship leaving Cuba had more than sugar in its holds - "North Korean Ship Yields Worrisome Cargo"

The U.S. and Panama had been tracking the ship for several days, suspecting it was carrying weapons and that it was going to try to transit the canal, said a U.S. official.

U.S. officials said they hoped Panama would stop the ship to inspect it, and publicly praised Panama for doing so. "The U.S. was aware of the suspected shipment and believed the Panamanian officials were going to stop it," a U.S. official said.

A State Department spokesman, Patrick Ventrell, said the U.S. has pushed for enforcement of U.N. resolutions restricting North Korean weapons activities. "Any shipment of arms would violate numerous U.N. security resolutions," he said.

More from the BBC here:

ShipSpotting.com

© Malcolm Cranfield

The ship, the Chong Chon Gang, was stopped near Manzanillo on the Atlantic side of the canal last week.

It had left Russia's far east in April and travelled across the Pacific Ocean before entering the canal at the start of June, with Cuba as its stated destination.

The ship had crossed the Pacific without its automatic tracking system switched on - a move described by the BBC's security correspondent Frank Gardner as highly suspicious.

Panama's Security Minister Jose Raul Mulino told the BBC that the ship - carrying 250,000 bags of sugar - was seized on 10 July after a tip-off that it was linked to drugs, but the "resistance and violence from the crew" delayed the search.

He said the suspected weaponry was found in two containers and did not rule out further "surprises" as the search of the ship continues.

Current NORK Kim-in-Charge

USA Today reports that Cuba says the systems found buried under all that sugar were "obsolete."

Hmmm. "Obsolete" like the governments of Cuba and North Korea?

About that photo - this site captions the photo as "The first released photos of the arms. Captain of the
ship." Of course, the larger photo is from the ship, taken by a Panamanian government official. The inset, however, appears to be the NORK Current-Kim-in-Charge, Kim Jong Un. Unless, of course, he captains weapons smuggling ships in addition all the other amazing stuff he is up to.

North Korea: Happy Populations Don't Defect . . .

Area involved is circled

The Current Kim-in-Charge (CKIC) is keeping his happy people in the North Korean worker's paradise through an "urban renewal program" of a sort, The Chosun Ilbo reports in "N.Korea Demolishes Border Villages to Stem Defections":

North Korea is demolishing villages near the border with China along the Duman River and forcing residents to move south in order to prevent defections.
***
The Duman narrows as it passes Onsong, making the area a popular spot for defectors to cross into China.

Activists in South Korea who help North Korean defectors said one Onsong resident was executed by firing squad recently after being captured in the attempt to defect. "The regime believes that stemming defections is an effective method of staying in power," the government source said

The North has stepped up border patrols and installed high-tech surveillance equipment, including devices that track the sources of cell phone signals.

Things slide from bad to worse.

But, the CKIC has a nuke or two. So he's got that going for him.

North Korea: They have an economy? Yep - mostly an illegal one.

"I am your fearless leader into oblivion"

From NPR's Planet Money, an interesting (and only a little dated) show on "North Korea's Illegal Economy" which is a podcast:

. . .  [W]e look at the ways North Korea's leaders have managed to keep foreign currency flowing into the country. Their strategies include manufacturing drugs, counterfeiting U.S. dollars, and selling gigantic statues to foreign leaders.

 Oh, and selling weapons around the world.

It's about 24 minutes long.

The biggest surprise to some people will be that I listen to some shows on NPR.

North Korea: " China 'Won't Accept N.Korean Nuclear Armament'"

China 'Won't Accept N.Korean Nuclear Armament':

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang on Wednesday assured South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se that Beijing will not tolerate North Korea's nuclear arms, according to a diplomatic source.

In a meeting with Yun in Beijing, Li stressed it is China's consistent policy to ensure peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.
***

The Big Dog growls.

And more:

China recently moved an Army corps close to the North Korean border and staged a live-fire exercise with tanks and self-propelled guns.

Experts believe Beijing is taking no chances in case a North Korean provocation leads to an emergency.

The official Global Times on Monday reported that an armored brigade from a Shenyang mechanized infantry unit carried out live-fire maneuvers near the border on April 1.

North Korea: Begging For Food? - But, hey, they've got nukes!

Yonhap reports on a report: "N. Korea requests food aid from Mongolia":

North Korea has recently requested food aid from Mongolia, citing a food shortage the country may face, according to a Mongolian Internet news outlet on Monday.

The request was made by Hong Gyu, the North Korean ambassador to Mongolia, during his meeting on April 16 with the country's President Ts. Elbegdorj to present a letter of credence, according to an article by InfoMongolia.com
"At the conclusion, North Korean Ambassador to Ulan Bator Hong Gyu said North Korea may face a severe food shortage. Therefore, we ask Mongolia to seek possibilities of delivering food aid to North Korea," the article said.

Food assistance and other aid to the impoverished country from the outside world ground to a halt after the North conducted its third nuclear test on Feb. 12 in defiance of the international community's warnings.

UPDATE: The report on InfoMongolia.com here.
The Wall Street Journal carries forward with this report here:

At a courtesy call on the Mongolian president last week, Pyongyang’s new ambassador made a request for food aid, according to the official website for the head of state.

“North Korea may face (a) severe food shortage,” Ambassador Hong Gyu told President Elbegdorj, according to the account. Mr. Hong then asked for Mongolia to consider the possibility of delivering food aid to North Korea, the account said.

North Korea’s toughest part of the year for food begins in April and runs through September, when the annual corn harvest begins. Kwon Tae-jin, a scholar on North Korean agriculture in Seoul said that last year’s yield was moderate, but not sufficient to tide the country over.

“We’ve learned that while rations are being delivered, it varies region by region,” said Dr. Kwon, a director at the Korea Rural Economic Institute in Seoul. “But it isn’t sufficient to go around for everyone.”

There are other signs of food shortages. Daily NK, a news website staffed by North Korean defectors, reported last week that Pyongyang did not distribute food to the northernmost province for the biggest holiday of the year; the April 15 anniversary of the birthday of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung.

Mongolia, the "bread basket of third world dictatorships?"

UK's Mirror has video and photographs of the DPRK mess here. If you missed it, there was an "undercover" visit by a BBC journalist into North Korea on the show "Panorama" - you can see a part of it here. You should note that there are people unhappy with the means used to insert the reporter, as set out here.

Nice discussion from opinion people at The Wall Street Opinion Journal of the current U.S. approach to the NORKs:



UPDATE: 23 April 13: U.S.does not eliminate possibility of giving food aid to the North Koreans. So that the expression "biting the hands that feeds you" can be used in the future, I suppose. Humanitarian aid to this regime?

A U.S. special envoy on North Korea said Monday that North Korea's food plight is "fairly difficult" and that Washington is keeping the door open for food aid.

Robert King, the U.S. special envoy for North Korean human rights issues, affirmed that the U.S. draws a line between food assistance and politics.

"If there were a request for assistance, it's something I'm sure that we would look at," he said during a roundtable meeting with reporters at the State Department. "We try to keep our humanitarian assistance separate from political considerations."

I think that is a bad approach. It just rewards bad behavior and misgovernment by the dictatorship.

Surprise Surprise Surprise: North Korea "says no to denuclearisation"

The Hindu reports Pyongyang says no to denuclearisation

North Korea said on Saturday that it would never agree to talks on denuclearisation, but would be open to negotiations for arms reduction.

Pyongyang said it will not give up its nuclear programme until the entire world is denuclearised, according to the North’s main newspaper Rodong Sinmun.

“There may be talks between us and the United States for the sake of arms reduction, but there will never be talks for denuclearisation,” it said.

“Our position is clear. Never dream of denuclearisation on the Korean Peninsula before denuclearisation of the world is realised.”

Right, their motives are so pure you can see right through them.

As I asked here, why would the laughably named Democratic People's Republic of Korea give up the one thing that makes them "special" instead of another failed state dictatorship sinking into mass starvation?

Now we know.

They'll give up nukes for "whirled peas." Really.

North Korea: "Stop Bullying Us Poor Little NORKs - Then We Can Talk"

"And I want an NBA team, too"

Poor little old North Korea.

Stuck in the middle between its more successful cousin and its more successful Chinese neighbor and, well, according to the North Korean propaganda machine, the peaceful DPRK is vilified at every turn by the U.S. and South Korea, who it appears have little else to do but to "provoke" the NORKs.

Exactly what the U.S. and South Koreans gain by provoking the North Koreans is not explained. Perhaps it is one of those "just because" things.

You see, the DPRK says that if only outside forces would stop the "provocation" then they would be happy to be a peaceable dictatorship spreading love and joy among its people and turning swords into plowshares, etc. You can read about it at Yonhap News's "N. Korea says S. Korea, U.S. must stop provocations for talks". What provocations?

Here's a start:

The North's powerful National Defense Commission and the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea (CPRK) said sanctions imposed by the U.N. Security Council against the DPRK must be rescinded and on-going nuclear war exercises should be stopped. DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the North's official name.

"Fabrications of truth, like blaming the North for the sinking of a South Korean warship in 2010 and recent Internet hacking of financial institutions and media has to be discontinued," the commission's policy department said in a statement.

Dialogue and war cannot exist side-by-side and that Seoul and Washington need to proclaim to the rest of the world that they will never engage in making threats and carry out nuclear war exercises that target the North, it said.

"It is time to withdraw all nuclear war making capabilities from the region and officially proclaim such devices will not be reintroduced (back into South Korea) down the line," said the defense commission.

The CPRK, in charge of conducting dialogue with the South, echoed these views, saying enforcing of sanctions, taking part in measures to compromise the regime and challenging the country's space and nuclear development efforts, all constituted hostile moves and cannot be tolerated.

Introducing sophisticated military hardware into the region will be viewed as provocations, the CPRK said, adding that Seoul in recent days made remarks about the North making right choices that it claimed were impudent.

"If they had a true will to have dialogue, they should have halted all acts of hurting the dignity of the DPRK, and stopped the north-targeted war exercises and smear campaign and given assurance to the nation that they would not resort to such hostile acts in the days ahead," the CPRK's announcement said.

Ah. It is so simple. Disarm, quit telling the truth and let the DPRK do whatever it wants.

Yes, that is one way to peace.

Probably not the most rationale way, though.

Shocker: North Korea threatens South . . . Well, Not So Much A "Shocker" Exactly

Pretty thin-skinned those NORKs. Especially after weeks, months and years of threats to pretty much the whole world, except perhaps China, Russia, Iran and Cuba.

AFP-JIJI

North Korea threatens South after protesters burn effigies of revered leaders :

North Korea’s military Tuesday threatened archrival South Korea with imminent “sledge-hammer” retaliation unless Seoul apologizes for anti-Pyongyang protestors burning effigies of its revered leaders.

South Korea called the North’s ultimatum “regrettable” and vowed a tough response to any military provocation.

"Sledge-hammer" retaliation - let's see, is that better or worse than a "nuclear sea of fire?"

Imminent?

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

North Korea and its "Missiles of Doom"

That the NORKs may have nuclear capable missiles comes as little surprise - since that's what they've been telling everyone with their fear-mongering bullying. How that might have been confirmed comes to us via Eli Lake's Yahoo! News piece, the poorly titled "How North Korea Tipped Its Hand":

After the North Korean launch, U.S. Navy ships managed to recover the front section of the rocket used in it, according to three U.S. officials who work closely on North Korean proliferation. That part of the rocket in turn provided useful clues about North Korean warhead design, should the next payload be a warhead rather than a satellite.

First off, "managed to" is a poor way to describe what must have been an impressive salvage operation.

Secondly, doesn't it give you pause about the level of intelligence we have on the NORKs? More from the article:

The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) released a classified assessment last month saying that it now has “moderate confidence” that the “North currently has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by ballistic missiles however the reliability will be low,” South Korea has provided additional intelligence bolstering this conclusion, according to U.S. officials.
***
Intelligence suggesting North Korea could design a nuclear warhead has been building for many years. A.Q. Khan, the man considered to be the father of the Pakistani nuclear program, for example has said in interviews and correspondence that in 1999 on a visit to North Korea he was shown boxes of components for three finished nuclear warheads that could be assembled within an hour.

You'd think the intel we did have would have prompted a little quicker movement of Ballistic Missile Defense systems to the areas that could, in theory be reached by the DPRK.

On the other hand, perhaps there was the usual desire not to tip our hand on exactly how much we really know about what the NORKs are up to.

Okay, now we know of the threat. We now know that various sanctions regimes of the past have not stopped the DPRK from going nuclear. What should we do?

Do we continue to chat with the Current Kim-in-Charge? Secretary of State John Kerry has indicated a willingness to meet with the NORKs under certain conditions, as set out in the NY Times here:

Secretary of State John Kerry said Sunday that the United States was prepared to reach out to Kim Jong-un of North Korea if he made the first move to abandon his nuclear weapons program.
***
“What we really ought to be talking about is the possibility of peace,” he said in a joint news conference on Sunday with Fumio Kishida, Japan’s foreign minister. “And I think there are those possibilities.”

Sketching out his approach in his meeting later in the day with reporters, Mr. Kerry said that before talks could begin, North Korea needed to take tangible steps to demonstrate that it was serious about denuclearization.

But it seemed unlikely that that precondition for talks would be met by North Korea, given the country’s announcements that it considers itself to be a nuclear state and its dedication to a “military-first” stance that channels resources to its armed forces.

You can read Mr. Kerry's remarks in context here:

So – *** – hopefully North Korea will hear our words and recognize that for the future of its people and for the future stability in the region as well as on the peninsula itself, there is a clear course of action that they are invited to take, and they will find in us ready partners to negotiate in good faith to resolve this issue.

Okay. Talk with the NORKs some more.

What is the end goal for such talks?

For the NORKs to give up on nuclear weapons? Why in the hell would they do that?

Right now the North Koreans are a "one-trick pony" in a position to blackmail their neighbors because the cost of taking the current DPRK regime out is projected to be awfully high. Take away their nuke threat and they are a conventional land power with no place to go that doesn't place them on a path to a buzz saw.

So what do you end up with? Stuff like this from our SecState:

The North has to understand, and I believe must by now, that its threats and its provocations are only going to isolate it further and impoverish its people even further. And they have to understand also something that we have consistently made clear. President Obama has made it clear. I think I’ve tried to underscore the President’s policy as much as possible. And it is very simple: that the United States will do what is necessary to defend our allies – Japan, Republic of Korea – and the region against these provocations. But our choice is to negotiate. Our choice is to move to the table and find a way for the region to have peace. And we would hope that whatever considerations or fears the North has – of the United States or of others in the region that they would come to the table in a responsible way and negotiate that. We are confident that we can address the concerns with respect to their security and find ways together with China and the Republic of Korea and Japan and Russia and the members of the Six-Party Talks, we can find a way to resolve these differences at a negotiating table. I hope they will hear that and I hope they will respond to that, and any other choice by them will simply further isolate them in the world and make it clear to the rest of the world where the problem really lies here. That’s our hope.

Isolate NK further? Is that possible?

Good lord.

The NORKs must come to understand and truly know that any use of their nukes will end whatever life they currently enjoy.

Having a few nukes just means that any missiles the NORKs mount them on are "missiles of doom" - for the NORKs.

 

They have understand that it is not asymmetric warfare we are discussing here when we talk a nuclear exchange.The U.S. will not fight back with one hand tied behind its back.

The U.S. has the power to totally obliterate the DPRK.

THE DPRK does not have the power to destroy the U.S. or its response capabilities.

My suggested talking point to the SecState are along the lines of,

If you try to launch missiles that threaten the U.S. or its allies, we will shoot them down and then we will come after you and yours without mercy.

Do you understand what 'without mercy' means in this context? We have the most experienced combat force on the planet and you will get to meet them up close and personal if you do something stupid.

Perhaps you have seen the American movie, "Dirty Harry?" You might recall Harry's words to the killer creep who threatened some school children - let me modify them for you to make my point clear:

I know what you're thinking, punk. You're thinking "Will the Americans fight?" Now to tell you the truth sometimes we send mixed messages in all this excitement. But being this is the U.S. military, the most powerful military in the world and they would be itching to blow you head clean off if you attacked us, you've gotta ask yourself a question: "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya, punk?

North Korea: Games the DPRK Plays

North Korea is shuffling the missiles of April, The Japan Times reports in "North Korea sows confusion over launch":

North Korea has been repeatedly moving multiple missiles around in an apparent bid to confuse outside intelligence gatherers ahead of an expected launch, Yonhap reported Thursday.

Musudan Missiles

According to intelligence analysis cited by the South Korean news agency, two midrange Musudan missiles have been repeatedly moved in and out of a warehouse facility in the eastern port city of Wonsan.

At the same time, at least five mobile launch vehicles have also been spotted swapping positions in South Hamgyeong Province. They are believed to be launch platforms for short-range Scud missiles, which have a range of 300 to 500 km, and medium-range Nodong missiles, which can travel 1,300 to 1,500

Polish Scud on launcher

km.

“There are signs the North could fire off Musudan missiles any time soon,” an intelligence source said. “But the North has been repeatedly moving its missiles in and out of a shed, which needs close monitoring.”

Nodong

Another source suggested Pyongyang was hoping to “fatigue” South Korean and U.S. intelligence gatherers who have been on a heightened state of surveillance alert since Wednesday.

In addition, the South Korean government has verified hacking done by the NORKs, as reported by Yonhap in "Gov't confirms Pyongyang link in March cyber attacks":

Amid escalating tension on the Korean Peninsula, the South Korean government on Wednesday announced that North Korea was behind the massive hacking attack that paralyzed networks of local financial firms and broadcasters last month.
***
The March 20 incident marks the latest attack in Pyongyang's growing pursuit of technological warfare. While the communist state has denied allegations, it has been blamed for a series of cyber attacks on the Web sites of South Korean government agencies and financial institutions in the past few years.

North Korea is known to operate a cyber warfare unit of 3,000 elite hackers who are trained to break into computer networks to steal information and distribute malware.

More Threats: "North Korea Warns Foreigners in South of Nuclear War"

NYTimes headline: "North Korea Warns Foreigners in South of Nuclear War"

As North Korea warned foreigners on Tuesday that they might want to leave South Korea because the peninsula was on the brink of nuclear war — a statement that the United States Embassy in Seoul and analysts dismissed as hyperbole — the American commander in the Pacific expressed worries that the North’s young leader, Kim Jong-un, might not have left himself an easy exit to reduce tensions.

More from The Chosun Ilbo here:

Threatening a "merciless sacred retaliatory war," the spokesman said the North "does not want to see foreigners in South Korea hurt in the case of war."

Along with its threats,  North Korea appears to have at the ready the missiles that were discussed here, as set out here:

North Korea has finished preparations to launch one or two Musudan medium-range missiles that have been moved to an area on the east coast.

South Korean military authorities worry that the North could also launch other short- and medium-range missiles.

Meanwhile, the Japanese government instructed the Self-Defense Forces to get ready to intercept any North Korean missiles. The U.S. is also getting ready to intercept any missiles that head toward its base in Guam.

"We've discovered that the North finished preparations to launch two Musudan missiles after moving them to an area near Wonsan by train from Jamjin Missile Plant in Nampo last week," a government source in Seoul said Tuesday. "They seem to be ready for launch four to six hours after being injected with liquid fuel."

I wonder what would happen if something were to happen to missiles on the launcher?

Even Fidel Castro is urging caution on the NORKs part, as set out here.

I wonder if Professor Cumings is writing a piece on the "North Korean nuclear bullying?"

Finally, if anyone wonders why it would be a really bad idea for Iran to have a nuke - this Korean mess ought to be a eye-opener.

UPDATE: From The Wall Street Journal: