Finding the Delta - Given an expectation that there are always going to be a certain number of deaths in any given month, how much has COVID-19 increased that number?

If I ask "Given an expectation that there are always going to be a certain number of deaths in any given month, how much has COVID-19 increased that number?, I am looking for the difference (the"delta") between the predicted number of deaths in a given month and any any increase over that prediction that can be attributed to COVID-19. The National Vital Statistics System, a part of the CDC, actually prepares such a report that displays that information, the Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). In the the notes concerning this report this one explains the term "expected deaths" as used in the table:

Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019.

Click on the images to enlarge them.

This is represented graphically:



In either the chart or the graph, you'll note that April 2020 was the month in which "excess deaths" above expected levels took off.

If you take a look at the numbers for some key states, you will see where that spike came from: New York City had a death rate 215% higher than the expected. As a state, New York was 118% higher. New Jersey was 129%, a couple of other states were over a percentage or 2 above "expected" - some were much lower.

New York City

New York State

New Jersey

Some the lower numbers are undoubtedly due to the lag in reporting. Or as set out on the linked page:

NOTE: Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. The United States population, based on 2018 postcensal estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, is 327,167,434.

*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.

What's the lesson? We are capturing the increases in deaths above those that would be normally expected. Overall, the increases in most states would not appear to be that great except for New York City and, thus, New York State, and, perhaps, New Jersey.

Of course, these numbers are "provisional" and will be adjusted up and down as more data is received. For example, the state chart shows North Carolina with no COVID-19 deaths, the NC government is reporting 420 deaths from COVID-19 as of 4 May 2020. Be aware of GIGO.

Death Rates by Race - History Tells a Tale

A chart with 1989 data:

The chart, from the National Institute of Health here, show that at certain age ranges, especially 45 to 69, that the ratio of African American deaths to white American deaths is about 2 to 1.

Today, we have news reports that the African American community is affected more by COVID19 than the white community. For example, the report here from the Chrisitian Science Monitor:

Of the victims whose demographic data was publicly shared by officials – nearly 3,300 of the nation's 13,000 deaths thus far – about 42% were black, according to an Associated Press analysis. African Americans account for roughly 21% of the total population in the areas covered by the analysis.
***
"The rate at which black people are dying, compared to whites, is really just astounding," said Courtney Cogburn, an associate professor at the Columbia University School of Social Work. "There are patterns at this intersection of race and socioeconomic status that make it very clear this is just not a story about poverty."
***
The data collected ranges from New York to Illinois to Alabama to San Diego, and covers an area that represents 82 million Americans, nearly 43% of whom are nonwhite. Other minority groups' cases and deaths are fairly in line with their demographics, although those among Hispanic individuals in some hot spots are still high.
***
For instance, Louisiana tracked demographic data in 512 deaths and found 70% of victims were black, despite African Americans comprising just 32% of the state's population. In Michigan, more than half of the deaths where race data was collected were black residents; the state's population is 14% black.

Illinois' population is 17% Hispanic and 14% black yet, as of Monday, 63% of its caseload of more than 9,000 COVID cases with racial data recorded were nonwhite residents, and at least 40% of the state's 307 victims were black.

ZIP code data in New York City released last week showed that black, brown, and immigrant communities are disproportionately represented among the diagnosed virus cases and deaths. On Wednesday, the city's Department of Health released racial data showing 27.5% of the victims whose race is known are black, although blacks are only about 22% of the population.

What's the point here?
Given the 1989 numbers, a ratio of 2 to 1 of African American deaths in certain age ranges might be just the historical pattern repeating itself.

Now, given that, the underlying reasons for that ratio represents a challenge - a "curve that needs to be flattened." Now, the argument is that African Americans lack access to healthcare or health insurance coverage that would help the flattening process. However, some indications are that African Americans in the US are 79.2% covered by insurance and white Americans are 84.6% covered. "Latinos" are roughly 70% covered. Under these conditions, logic would dictate that Latinos would have a higher ratio than African Americans, but the chart shows that they don't.

Some else from the CDC here:

COVID19 just seems to be tracking along the historical rates. As noted in the following graphic, the underlying causes for this mortality rate might be controllable, especially in reducing of smoking and obesity and increasing activity: