Degrees of Seriousness

ABC News coverage of shoot down of Syrian fighter/bomber by U.S. Navy F-18:


ABC Breaking News

Good analysis about potential messages and effects begins about 1:24. Did the U.S. draw that "red line" about what behavior it will tolerate? How will Russian leadership (read "Putin") respond? Will this lead to a "tit for tat" response attempt by Syrians (w Russian backing) or will the Russians respond directly?

"Self-defense" of coalition partners would seem to be a pretty reasonable rationale for the action the U.S. took.

But really, this is one of those middle of the meter reading on the "Degrees of Seriousness" meter.

India: Major Coal Player

As set out in this Platts article "India emerging as a major force in the global coal market":

Replacing Europe as the main consumer of Richards Bay coal, a major customer for Indonesian material and with huge power projects about to come online -- India is fast becoming a force to be reckoned with.

The largest coal mining company in the world, Coal India Limited is putting the finishing touches to a long-term coal supply contract framework that could see it purchase tens of millions of tons of imported thermal coal from Australia, Indonesia, South Africa and the US from a list of pre-selected coal suppliers for delivery starting in April, according to sources in the Indian market.

Importing coal means more ship at sea carrying coal.

Part of Richards Bay Coal Terminal

Questions regarding the environmental impact of coal should be addressed to the government of India.

UPDATE: U.S. exports of coal are on the rise - see here:

Asia's appetite for coal to generate electricity and bake into coke for steel making could make 2011 a banner year for U.S. exports. It could boost business for railroads and shipping ports that transport coal, industry observers say.
Continued demand and supply limitations that caused surging U.S. coal exports to China and India last year are expected to increase exports to 86.5 million tons, up from 79.5 million tons in 2010, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The agency said 2009 shipments fell to 59.1 million tons, a result of the recession, from 81.5 million tons in 2008.
"Exports will be at the highest level ... in decades," predicts James Thompson, editor of U.S. Coal Review, a trade publication in Knoxville, Tenn.

 Richards Bay Coal Terminal is "the single largest export coal terminal in the world"

Richards Bay is located in South Africa:

Situated at Longitude 32º 02' E and Latitude 28º 48' S, Richards Bay, South Africa's most northernmost and easterly port, is 87 nautical miles (160 km) northeast of Durban and 252 n.miles (465 km) southwest of Maputo.

Arrow points toward Richards Bay, RSA

 According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency,

India also has been increasing its imports of coal while facing ongoing coal transportation challenges. Its improvements in infrastructure include the expanded use of smaller ports to satisfy increasing demand for coal imports. Like China, India increased its coal imports in both 2008 and 2009 (although preliminary data suggest that the growth in 2009 was much less than that in China). In 2035, India's coal imports in the Reference case are four times the 2008 level, spurred by rising imports of both coking and steam coal.

The large coal-fired electricity plants planned for India's coastal areas will be fueled by imported steam coal. The country is faced with domestic coal supply and quality issues and, while it is building new plants, its demand for coal imports continues to grow. Unfortunately, delays in meeting established construction schedules are commonplace in India, and transportation infrastructure issues abound. For instance, in 2009 India had difficulty handling coal imports at its river port of Haldia because of an unexpected loss of water depth. In order for tonnage to be handled at the port, larger ships have been diverted to deeper ports, where their coal cargos are transferred to smaller ships for delivery to Haldia.

India's planned infrastructure improvements include coastal port expansions at Goa and Paradip. Freight capacity at Paradip is expected to increase from about 55 million tons in 2009 to 77 million tons in 2012, but recent bottlenecks at the port must be overcome in order for that goal to be achieved. In addition, coal-handling capability at the port of Mormugao will be expanded from 6 million tons to 17 million tons by 2014. India completed the new port of Gangavaram in 2009, only one of two (the second being the Mundra port) capable of handling capesize vessels. Gangavaram already handled about 17 million tons of freight (not all of it coal) in 2009. In the long term, Gangavaram's owners would like to expand its freight handling capability to 221 million tons per year. The new port of Dharma, also capable of handling capesize ships, should begin operation by the end of 2010.

India has domestic resources of coking coal, but its quality is poor in comparison with foreign-sourced coking coal. India's long-term plans include expansion of its steel industry to between 165 and 198 million tons of raw steel output by 2020, up from about 62 million tons in 2008, with increased imports of coking coal supporting the expansion. Some plans for new steelmaking capacity, such as ArcelorMittal's new coastal steel plant in Orissa, appear to have been delayed by land acquisition difficulties and environmental issues and thus are unlikely to add to India's demand for coking coal imports until after 2014. Largely because of its imports of coking coal, India surpass Japan as the world's largest importer of coal by 2025 in the IEO2010 Reference case.

UPDATE: Speaking of ports for coal operations, the increase in demand for U.S. coal is also spurring people to look at our "coal ports" - see Port Strategy: "US ports may rise on Indian coal market ":

Some US ports could well be riding the “Indian Tiger” as talks have begun on possible exports of coal from the US to India, with officials from Coal India visiting the United States recently to meet with local producers.

The ports that may well benefit include Lamberts Point Coal Terminal at Norfolk, Virginia; the CNX Marine Terminal at Baltimore, Maryland, the Port of New Orleans, Louisiana; the Port of Mobile, Alabama; and the Port of Seattle, Washington. Coal exporters could also use the Port of Vancouver.

So, coal exports are fueling growth in exports, port operations and coal mining. All while various senior political powers in the U.S. are pushing programs to reduce coal production. See here:

The coal industry stands to lose nearly $2.6 billion in federal tax incentives over the next decade as part of the Obama administration's proposed fiscal 2012 budget released Monday.

The administration's proposal is identical to coal incentives cut in its budget last year. The White House is aiming to meet a G-20 climate change agreement from 2009 in which member countries pledged to phase out fossil fuel subsidies.
***Repealing the tax provisions would "foster the development of a clean-energy economy and reduce our dependence on fossil fuels that contribute to climate change," the administration said in its budget message. The tax incentives equal less than 1% of the coal industry's revenue over the next 10 years, according to White House projections.

Under the budget proposal, coal companies would no longer be able to expense exploration and development costs; use percentage depletion for hard mineral fossil fuels; or claim domestic manufacturing deductions against coal production income. Royalties from privately owned coal blocks would be treated as regular income rather than capital gains for tax purposes, translating to a higher tax rate.

Somali Pirates: Legal Pact for Trials Near?

One of several international legal stumbling blocks in thwarting Somali pirates has been a lack of an agreed place to hold trials and to imprison captured pirates. Now, it may be that an agreement to end that impasse is near, according to this:

Captured Somali pirates could soon face trials and serve jail sentences outside their homeland under a pact being negotiated between American officials and regional allies, the head of a new U.S. anti-piracy task force said Friday.

The lack of an international framework to bring pirates to justice is among the many frustrations for naval forces struggling to curb rising attacks on merchant vessels off lawless Somalia, where pirates launched more than 100 assaults on ships last year and took away millions of dollars in ransom.

Rear Adm. Terence McKnight told The Associated Press an accord could be reached within weeks to clear the way for piracy trials and imprisonment in countries "in the region." He declined, however, to name the nations possibly willing to hold the trials.

"We're working with a couple of countries that have helped ... out before," McKnight said in a telephone interview from the USS San Antonio, which began anti-piracy patrols last week along with another U.S. warship.

It is a step in the right direction.

Combined Maritime Forces Counter-Pirate Force CTF-151

Forwarded from a reader:

For Immediate Release
Jan. 08, 2009
Release #001-09

New Counter-Piracy Task Force Established Commander, Combined Maritime
Forces Public Affairs

MANAMA, Bahrain - The Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) has established
Combined Task Force 151 (CTF-151) specifically for counter-piracy
operations.

Naval ships and assets from more than 20 nations comprise the Combined
Maritime Forces. U.S. Navy Rear Admiral Terence "Terry" McKnight has been
named the commander of the new task force which will be fully operational by
the middle of January.

The CMF created the Maritime Security Patrol Area (MSPA) in the Gulf of Aden
in August of 2008 to support international efforts to combat piracy.
Coalition efforts included CTF-150 assets patrolling the area with ships and
aircraft. However, the charter for CTF-150, established at the outset of
Operation Enduring Freedom, was for the conduct of Maritime Security
Operations (MSO) in the Gulf of Aden, the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea, Red
Sea and the Indian Ocean.

Operations included the deterrence of destabilizing activities, such as drug
smuggling and weapons trafficking. The establishment of CTF-151 will allow
CTF-150 assets to remain focused on those activities, giving CTF-151 the
ability to focus solely on the counter-piracy mission.

"Some navies in our coalition did not have the authority to conduct
counter-piracy missions," said Vice Adm, Bill Gortney, CMF Commander. "The
establishment of CTF-151 will allow those nations to operate under the
auspices of CTF-150, while allowing other nations to join CTF-151 to support
our goal of deterring, disrupting and eventually bringing to justice the
maritime criminals involved in piracy events."

Vice Adm. Gortney highlighted the reduction in piracies in the region due to
merchant mariners' proactive measures. He also continued to caution that
the efforts of Coalition and international navies won't solve the problem of
piracy.

"The most effective measures we've seen to defeat piracy are non-kinetic and
defensive in nature. The merchant ships have been doing a great job
stepping up and utilizing these methods to defeat piracy attempts. That's a
great first step. But the problem of piracy is and continues to be a
problem that begins ashore and is an international problem that requires an
international solution. We believe the establishment of CTF-151 is a
significant step in the right direction."

CTF 151 is a multinational task force that conducts counter-piracy
operations in and around the Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean and the
Red Sea and was established to create a lawful maritime order and develop
security in the maritime environment.

UPDATE: Biography of RADM McKnight from here:

Rear Admiral Terence E. McKnight, a native of Norfolk, graduated from the Virginia Military Institute in May 1978. He completed his master’s degree in International Relations at Salve Regina University in May 1998. Additionally, he graduated from the U.S. Army War College in 1994 and attended the National Security Seminar at Syracuse University in 2001.

Rear Adm. McKnight’s early sea duty assignments included USS El Paso (LKA 117), USS John L. Hall (FFG 32), USS Shreveport (LPD 12) and Executive Officer in USS Cayuga (LST 1186). He commanded USS Whidbey Island (LSD 41) from January 1995 until November 1996 and USS Kearsarge (LHD 3) from July 2002 until December 2003.

Duties ashore included the Bureau of Naval Personnel as Assistant Lieutenant Commander Detailer, Aide and Administrative Assistant to the Chief of Naval Personnel, Surface Warfare Officers School, Command Training Department as Head Expeditionary Warfare Instructor, the Office of the Secretary of Defense, Executive Assistant to the Assistant Secretary of Navy (Manpower & Reserve Affairs), the Office of Chief of Naval Operations N6/N7, and Executive Assistant to the Under Secretary of the Navy.

Rear Adm. McKnight served as the 85th Commandant of Naval District Washington, the oldest continuously operated Navy installation in the nation and the Deputy Commander, Joint Force Headquarters National Capital Region.

Rear Adm. McKnight assumed duties as Commander, Expeditionary Strike Group 2, in September 2007.

Rear Adm. McKnight’s personal decorations include the Legion of Merit, Bronze Star, Defense Meritorious Service Medal, Meritorious Service Medal, Navy Commendation Medal, Navy Achievement Medal, as well as various other unit awards and decorations.

That degree in international relations might be useful in his new job. And the VMI alumni association will be happy, I would guess. Lots of amphib service so I bet he knows how to speak "Marine."

UPDATE2: A wise cautionary note from C-dore 14 at Salamander's place:

Call me a cynic but I'd be much more impressed by the implementation of aggressive ROE executed by the forces of committed nations than I am by the assignment of a Flag Officer and the designation of a new CTF.

It is hard not to be cynical, but maybe he has some strong guidance to get those Rules of Engagement in place and a plan to have a trial court nearby...

Salamander's comments are also germane and reflect lessons learned by many of us who have served in coalition situations though I am somewhat comforted by the knowledge that the "non-swimmers" seem to be staying out of the deep end and the CTF might be composed of real sharks.

I hope the Flag Officer is ready to whup some pirates and has an aggressive staff JAG officer who has boned up on the law of fighting pirates...

UPDATE3: He needs a good JAG because of stuff like this:

Danish forces in the Gulf of Aden have no clear directive about what to do with five captive pirates

Questions about legal jurisdiction over pirates captured in international waters have again emerged after the crew of the HMS Absalon rescued five Somalis in the Gulf of Aden after their ship was sunk by a cargo ship they were reportedly attempting to board.

On 2 January the pirates attacked the ship, registered in the Netherlands Antilles. An emergency flare fired by the ship struck the pirates' boat, forcing them to abandon ship.

They were fished out of the water by Absalon, but now the Navy finds itself again in a position of having no guidelines on what to do with them.

Although the United Nations gave international forces in the Gulf of Aden permission to pursue pirates on land, criminal prosecution of pirates has become a thorn in the forces' side due to uncertainty over questions of jurisdiction.

On 3 December, Absalon was told by military headquarters in Bahrain not to pursue surrendering pirates - even though the ship's crew was certain the pirates were responsible for the attack on Australian cruise ship MV Athena that day.

Earlier in September, 10 pirates captured by the Navy had to be released because legal experts in Denmark were uncertain they could be prosecuted here and they could not be handed over to Somali authorities due to concerns that they risked capital punishment there.

The Foreign Ministry indicated it has been in contact with Dutch officials about the pirates held by Absalon, but no decision has been made.

Persian/Arabian Gulf: Pakistani Navy Thwarts Attack?

As reported in a very brief article here:

The Pakistan Navy (PN), working as part of the Coalition Maritime Campaign Plan (CMCP) to avert maritime terrorist attacks, prevented an attack on a South Korean ship by a speedboat loaded with rockets on April 1, the PN said in a statement on Friday.

It said the PN ships “Tariq” and “Moawin” prevented the attack on the South Korean ship “Mt Sunshine Sky” earlier this month, as it sailed to Bandar Imam Khomenei, Iran, from Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.