Nicaragua's Lethal "Protests"

The "controlling leadership" of Nicaragua finds itself confronted by angry mobs and reacts with, no surprise, deadly force. As reported by Reuters Eleven killed in Nicaragua protests, including attack on Mother's Day march

Eleven people were killed on Wednesday in one of the worst days of violence since

protests against Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega began more than a month ago, a rights group said on Thursday.

The bloodshed was condemned by the Central American country's Episcopal conference of Catholic bishops, who called it "organized and systematic aggression" and suspended talks with the government scheduled for Thursday.

Witnesses said pro-government armed groups opened fire on the marchers during a demonstration on Wednesday, Nicaragua's Mother's Day. The march was held to remember the children who were among the more than 80 killed since the start of protests more than a month ago.

Nicaragua as noted here has a population of about 6 million.

According to the BBC, Nicaragua 'using mobs to quash protests':

Amnesty International has accused the Nicaraguan government of colluding with paramilitary groups to suppress weeks of student-led demonstrations against President Daniel Ortega.

It said the groups used semi-automatic weapons and co-ordinated their attacks with the security forces.

Around 80 people have died so far in the protests.

They began in April, triggered by welfare reforms but turned into a rejection of the Ortega government.

The Amnesty International (AI) report said the armed groups were often made up of pro-government students and motorcyclists, sometimes identifiable by clothing linking them to the authorities.

"These groups appear to be acting with the acquiescence of the state, as is demonstrated firstly by the fact that most of the attacks were committed by private individuals in the presence of or in co-ordination with the security forces," the report said.

"Secondly, by the fact that the police did not pursue the perpetrators after the crimes were committed, but rather allowed them to flee the scene and disperse."

"Welfare reforms" were proposed cuts to social benefits and increases in taxes - which the Ortega said on 22 April have been withdrawn - as set out here:

The welfare reform package proposed by Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega that set off days of deadly protests has been canceled.

In a televised national address, Ortega said the board of Nicaragua's social security system had voted to revoke the measures that were approved last week.

The sweeping pension overhaul plan that increases contributions for workers and employer, but lowers overall benefits.

In earlier remarks Saturday, Ortega seemed to further enrage Nicaraguans by saying the protesters were being politically manipulated; and pointed to the reforms as only being a proposal, and that he was open to negotiations with the business community.

The business community however, which is widely seen as an ally to the government, released a statement saying it would not sit down until freedom is speech is restored and police violence stops.

The BBC reports that independent TV stations have been taken off the air after broadcasting the protests live.

It seems there is lot more to this set of protests than "proposed welfare reforms."

About that Nicaragua Canal . . . and Volcanoes

The proposed Nicaragua alternate canal to the one in Panama may have issues in light recent volcanic activity in Nicaragua like two erupting in a single week as noted in Authorities activate emergency plans after two volcanoes erupt in Nicaragua

Authorities in Nicaragua activated emergency plans after explosions occurred at both the Momotombo and Telica volcanoes on Saturday.

Meanwhile, the Masaya volcano has also witnessed an increase in seismic activity in recent days.

According to the Nicaraguan Institute of Territorial Studies (INETER), the Telica volcano, located in the Leon department, erupted at 8:28 a.m. Saturday morning, launching a column of ash and gas some 1,000 meters (3,280 feet) into the air. At least 20 smaller eruptions were recorded at the volcano in the subsequent hours. Ashfall was reported in some nearby communities.

About two hours after the first explosion at Telica, the Momotombo volcano – which had been essentially dormant for 100 years before exploding to life in December – launched a column of ash and gas more than 1,600 feet (500 meters) into the air.

There were no injuries reported in either event, though Civil Defense and municipal authorities said they were activating emergency plans in order to provide a rapid response should communities become at risk. Civil Defense authorities also visited communities near the Momotombo to coordinate evacuation routes should a major incident occur.

See also here and here.

The Great Nicaragua Canal Project: "On Hold"

Blue line is proposed canal, red line is Costa Rica border

That great big alternative to the Panama Canal seems to have run into some trouble, as reported here:

Construction work on a controversial canal that would link the Pacific Ocean with the Caribbean via an overland route across Nicaragua and through Central America’s largest lake has been postponed until late 2016, says the company behind the project.

China-based HKND Co. issued a statement Wednesday saying that “the construction of locks and the big excavations will start toward the end of 2016,” adding that “the canal’s design is currently being fine-tuned.”
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The project has drawn sharp criticism from scientists over its potential impacts on Lake Nicaragua and delicate coastal ecosystems. Local communities concerned about their farmland have also protested the project, while some policy experts have raised doubts about its financial viability. China’s economic downturn and the worldwide collapse in commodity prices, have further undercut enthusiasm for the project.

It does have, on the other hand, an Nicaraguan government "environmental permit" so it has that going for it.

Not to be too cynical, but a $50 billion project would seem to offer potentially large opportunities for, shall we say, "kickbacks" for such permit approval. Follow the money, as they say.

Of course, there is also this "$50bn Nicaragua canal postponed as Chinese tycoon's fortunes falter" as the UK Guardian headline reads:

The mega-project – which would be the world’s biggest earth-moving operation – has proved controversial since it was agreed by Nicaraguan president Daniel Ortega and Wang Jing, the Chinese telecoms mogul who subsequently registered HKND.

Nicaraguan officials say the investment will boost the economy and raise living standards in the second-poorest nation in Latin America. But conservationists have warned that the 178-mile canal will damage Lake Nicaragua – the biggest freshwater source in Central America – and infringe upon protected areas and indigenous territory.

Well, I suspect some people's living standards might be raised, but unless they practice "trickle down" economics in Nicaragua, it might not be those of the displaced proletariat.

At any rate there are some real questions, some raised in this Journal of Commerce article "Consulting firm exit raises Nicaragua Canal feasibility questions":

Nicaragua’s government has long claimed that an economic feasibility study by blue-chip U.S. consultancy McKinsey & Co. is crucial to enticing Western investors to its $40 to $50 billion canal project. However, it has been confirmed that McKinsey has not worked on the Nicaragua Canal project since 2014, raising new questions about the Nicaraguan government’s public statements as well as the project’s chances of attracting Western investors.
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A confidential source who claimed to have inside knowledge of McKinsey’s work with HKND told a very different story about the economic feasibility study. McKinsey did initially consult on the project, made repeated requests for payment, and ultimately received payment from HKND around June 2014, the source said. Shortly after being paid, McKinsey informed HKND in writing that it would discontinue working on the project, said the confidential source.

Maybe if they had a 5-year plan.

And it is a nice strategic location. See the above map.

Of course there is that volcano issue in Nicaragua. You know, like the one that may have caused the U.S. to develop the Panama Canal. See here. Of course, the 5 active (out of 50) Nicaraguan volcanoes make for a nice tourist attraction, including "Volcanic Obsession" tours.

Viva.

UPDATE: Report of volcanic activity in early December 2015 "Nicaragua volcano belches ash, causes fears of eruption":

A large volcano in western Nicaragua, Momotombo, yesterday belched ash and gas up to a kilometre (3,000 feet) in the sky, sparking fears that the giant could be waking from a fitful 110-year-old slumber.

Perfect.

Caribbean Sea Space Dispute: Colombia and Nicaraga

A dispute between neighbors (see the map) about valuable sea space as set out here:

While the International Court of Justice at The Hague ruled on November 19 that Colombia does in fact own the regional islands of San Andres, Providencia and Santa Catalina, it gave the expanse of some 120 square kilometers of oil-rich ocean to Nicaragua. Colombia, which has long fought to keep the area, has rejected the decision and officially left the Bogotá Pact, a 1948 treaty which recognizes ICJ rulings to find peaceful solutions to these types of conflicts.

The country claims that by rebuffing the pact, it does not have to follow the decision. But Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega supports the court and says his navy is now “exercising sovereignty in all territory.”
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Nicaraguan fishermen report harassment:

Nicaraguan fishing boat captains on the Caribbean Sea say they are “fishing with fear” among Colombian warships that continue to ply Nicaragua’s recently recovered waters beyond the 82nd meridian. But they insist they are doing their patriotic duty to exert Nicaraguan sovereignty in the area.

“We are doing our part to support the government,” says Carlos Javier Goff, president of the Copescharley fishing company out of Puerto Cabezas. “We feel protected by the government and by the international community and, God willing, this won’t go to extremes…it won’t get beyond words and intimidation.”

Goff, whose fishing company has seven boats currently fishing near the 81st meridian, in waters still protected by Colombia despite the Nov. 19 world court ruling that establishes the waters as Nicaraguan territory, says his crews were harassed all last week by Colombian forces. He says his boat captains report the presence of two Colombian warships, which routinely deployed go-fasts to circle the Nicaraguan fishing boats. One of Colombian patrols allegedly attempted to board one of his Nicaraguan fishing vessels early last week, but the captain wouldn’t let the Colombian mariners aboard.

The harassment was also coming from the air, Goff says. “They were doing daily flyovers of our boats last week in helicopters and planes,” he told The Nicaragua Dispatch in a phone interview this morning.

The International Court of Justice materials relating to this dispute can be found here. Colombia has indicated disagreement with the ruling. Below is the press release the ICJ issued on 19 Nov 12:
ICJ Press Release Disp

A report on a meeting between the presidents of Nicaragua and Colombia "Nobody wants war":

Both presidents explained their respective country’s position on the matter and stressed the need for a solution through channels of diplomacy and dialogue.

“Of course nobody wants a bellicose confrontation. That is the last recourse,” Santos told reporters in Mexico following his sit-down with Ortega. “The way to resolve these types of situations is through dialogue—a sensible dialogue in which the positions are clearly stated and established, like we did in telling President Ortega what Colombia’s position is.”

Though the Colombian warships continue to ply Nicaraguan waters two weeks after the ICJ’s ruling, Santos said his country will look for mechanisms for international diplomacy to resolve the issue and “reestablish the rights that the ruling violated.”

Ortega, for his part, repeated that Nicaragua will continue to respect the ancestral fishing rights of the raizal, the Creole population of the Colombian islands of San Andres and Providencia.

“We are giving a message of peace and we are saying with total clarity that we are going to develop mechanisms for communication in all areas mentioned to guarantee the security of everyone, assuring the raizal people of their fishing rights, and also offering guarantees to the fishing industry based on San Andres,” Ortega said.

Something to keep an eye on.

UPDATE: Some thoughts on ramifications Colombia-Nicaragua ICJ Case Tests Region's Crisis Resolution Mechanisms


Circle on map is meant to show general are of dispute. Maps in the ICJ press release show actual areas involved.

Southern Command Chief Says: Iranian Influence, Terrorist Links, Threaten Latin American Security

Navy Adm. James G. Stavridis says Iranian Influence, Terrorist Links, Threaten Latin American Security:

Iran is increasing its presence in Latin America, and Hezbollah, a terrorist organization it sponsors, is making inroads in drug trafficking in Colombia, the commander of U.S. Southern Command told Congress today.
Navy Adm. James G. Stavridis told the House Armed Services Committee he shares concerns expressed by Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates about Iranian activity in Central and South America. Iran has opened six embassies in the region during the past five years and is promoting Islamic activities in the region.

“That is of concern, principally because of the connection between the government of Iran, which is a state sponsor of terrorism, and Hezbollah,” Stavridis said today. “We see a great deal of Hezbollah activity throughout South America, in particular.”

Much of that activity takes place in the tri-border area of Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina, and in the Caribbean.

Stavridis noted in his written statement that Southcom supported a Drug Enforcement Administration operation in the tri-border area last August that targeted a Hezbollah-connected drug trafficking organization.

Two months later, Southcom supported another interagency operation in which several dozen people were arrested in Colombia for ties to a Hezbollah-connected drug trafficking and money laundering ring.

Despite big successes in professionalizing the Colombian military and helping it deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, Southcom has witnessed a direct connection there between Hezbollah and drug trafficking in Colombia, Stavridis told the committee.

He noted the direct link between the illicit drug trade and the terrorist groups it bankrolls, noting the threat posed by Islamic radical terrorism.

“Indentifying, monitoring and dismantling the financial, logistical and communication linkages between illicit trafficking groups and terrorist sponsors are critical to not only ensuring early indications and warnings of potential terrorist attacks directed at the United States and our partners, but also in generating a global appreciation and acceptance of this tremendous threat to security,” he said.

Stavridis called Colombia – the major global source of cocaine and home of the FARC – pivotal in the fight to stop illicit traffickers at the source.

ADM Stavridis is not alone in his concerns. Iran has been messing around with Nicaragua for some time. And it's winning them friends among the "we hate America crowd" - as seen here:

The U.N. General Assembly president accused the United States on Tuesday of "demonizing" Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the latest blast against Washington by the former Nicaraguan official.

"I don't think anyone can doubt that in our part of the world, concretely here ... Ahmadinejad has been demonized," Miguel D'Escoto Brockmann told a news conference.

Ahmadinejad caused outrage in the West by saying in 2005 that the state of Israel should be wiped off the map. He has also questioned the Holocaust and promoted a nuclear program the West suspects aims to produce atomic weapons. Tehran says the program is for peaceful purposes.

D'Escoto said that "the United States has been in the business of the demonization of people from (for)ever," but had "canonized" former Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos, former Nicaraguan dictator Anastasio Somoza and former Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet.

"And then we hear terrible things about Ahmadinejad," D'Escoto said at the news conference on a recent trip to Syria, Finland, China, Bahrain, Switzerland and Iran to promote a U.N. conference in June on the world financial crisis.

Yeah, well, maybe we could agree on Hitler and Stalin?

"X"'s mark interesting areas where U.S. maritime sea lines of communication (especially into the oil refining areas) might be impacted by Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua. See also here.