Cold War Film: "Soviet Sea Power Today" (1970)

Friday Film: "The Rise of the Soviet Navy" (1969) and other stuff

In the current national security environment, where there are so many players who seem to be taking advantage of perceived weakness or indifference on the U.S. part, there is value in looking back - because "everything old is new again:"





Oh, yes, there is the military rise of China, covered by Stratfor here:

When evaluating a force, you have to measure it against what mission it is trying to accomplish and against what adversarial force it may face, as well as its ability to effectively coordinate and support its assets. The Chinese military is now expanding from a very low capacity, from a military designed largely for internal security, and one characterized by the predominance of the ground forces over the air and naval forces. Further, the Chinese military should not be looked at as trying to match the U.S. military in global capabilities. For China, its primary interest is its own region, where there are numerous security issues at play, even excluding the United States.

Distance provides the Chinese with some strength over the United States in the West Pacific, but that same geography also places China's resources in a very active region with diffuse potential threats. This leaves the Chinese having to focus on three levels of potential security concerns: small weaker states; Japan and Russia (its two potential peer competitors); and the distant but regionally present United States, which remains the only global power. In designing its grand strategy, doctrine and force structure, China has to balance how it would ideally handle any combination of the three.

But, hey, the Admiral Harris, head of the U.S. Pacific Command also has his eye on the North Koreans:

North Korea and its unpredictable leader are U.S. Pacific Command’s biggest worries, Navy Adm. Harry Harris Jr. told the Military Reporters and Editors Association here yesterday.

Harris, who has commanded U.S. Pacific Command since May, gave reporters and editors an update on the progress of the military rebalance to the Pacific.

Harris stopped in Washington on his way to the Australia-United States Ministerial in Boston.

“The greatest threat that I face on a day-to-day basis is the threat from North Korea, because you have an unpredictable leaders who is in complete command of his country and his military,” Harris said.

KimJong Un is “on a quest for nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them intercontinentally,” he said, adding that Un “poses a very real threat to the 28,000 Americans in South Korea, the nation of South Korea, Japan and on and on.”

“At some point in the future, as he develops his capability, North Korea will present a very real threat to Hawaii and the rest of the United States,” Harris continued. “Now, I have to be ready from a position of strength to deal with North Korea and we are ready to deal … any time that Kim Jong Un decides to act.”

Of course, there was stuff on China (oddly enough, Russia never seems to come up as a Pacific power):

Harris reiterated that U.S. involvement in the region is not aimed at containing China. The rebalance is about U.S. recognition of the increased importance of the region to Main Street U.S.A. Simply put, security in the region has means prosperity, he said.

“It’s in the best interests of the United States that we continue to embrace and enhance our relationships with everyone in the region including China,” Harris said. “While I’ve been known to be critical of China’s provocative military activities these past two years … I will also acknowledge when China has been helpful, such as China’s counterpiracy efforts off the Horn of Africa and the search for the Malaysian airliner off the coast of Australia.”

The admiral will meet with Chinese military leaders next month and he will “maximize” these areas of cooperation and agreement, while trying to work through areas where the United States and China disagree, he said.

Harris is prepared to continue the conversation with Chinese leaders. “Obviously one of the topics of on-going discussions is my continuing concern with what I call China’s ‘sand castles in the sea’ in disputed waters of the South China Sea,” he said. “Militarization by any claimant in the area makes it harder to resolve disagreements diplomatically.”

Harris will not discuss future operations in his area of responsibility, but he referred reporters to his testimony before the Senate earlier this year. “To reaffirm our ironclad commitment to international law, I think we must exercise freedom of navigation operations throughout the region and throughout the globe,” he said.

He also said he told a regional chiefs of defense meeting -- which included China -- at his headquarters in Hawaii two weeks ago that the United States “will continue to fly and sail and operate anywhere -- anywhere that international law allows.”

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.

Russia's Asia Pivot

Headline in the Moscow Times "Russia Wants Quicker Build-Up of Military Facilities on Disputed Islands". The disputants being, in this case, Japan and Russia:

Old map of "disputed islands"

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has ordered the speeding up of construction of military and civilian infrastructure on a chain of islands in the Pacific Ocean where Moscow and Tokyo have rival territorial claims.

Dispute over the islands, known as the Kurils in Russia and the Northern Territories in Japan, has strained relations between the two countries since World War II, when Soviet forces occupied four islands at the southern end of the chain.

Which, of course, ties in this Matthew Sussex article in The National Interest, Russia's Next Big Strategic Move (And It Has Nothing to Do with Ukraine):

But the Ukraine crisis—and the broader Russia-West tensions tat it has stoked—obscures the fact that Moscow has been quietly but rapidly re-orienting its strategic posture. And it is doing so to the east, not the west.

For Putin, the logic of an Asian pivot is threefold.

The first concerns consolidating Russia's prosperity as an energy and resource giant. He knows that Indo-Pacific appetites for oil and gas will increase massively over the next twenty years. Within the same time frame, European clients will diversify their energy sources once the U.S. shale gas and oil revolution brings American exports on-line. Russia therefore has a relatively small window of opportunity to begin crowding out competitors for Asia's energy demands.

Second, whereas Moscow's strategic posture has long stressed the need to look east, it has now begun increasing its Indo-Pacific trade and security footprint, including in Southeast Asia, in order to give its intended policy substance.

Third, Russia is betting that the 21st century will be an Asian one--and it is betting on China as the main driver of change in regional and global order. Until recently, the main question hanging over Sino-Russian relations was whether Moscow could live with being a junior partner to Beijing. It seems that question has now been answered in the affirmative, at least for the moment.

More fodder, from the Sputnik News Russia, China Hold Joint Naval Drills in the Far East:

The second stage of Russia-China "Joint Sea 2015" maritime exercises is underway in Russia’s Far Eastern Primorsky Territory, the Russian Defense Ministry’s Eastern Military District press service said in a Wednesday statement.

The joint exercise is taking place on June 8-11.

Upcoming drills will include troop landing practice that will take place at a Pacific Fleet range near Mys Klerk (Cape Klerk), the statement said.

On Tuesday, the Russian Defense Ministry said that officers from the Russian Eastern Military District, the Pacific Fleet Headquarters and representatives from the Chinese Navy held a reconnaissance mission at the Knevichi Airfield as part of the "Joint Sea 2015 (II)" naval exercise.

Russia is, in many ways, an Asian country (well, of course, especially given how much of it sits in Asia). You also have got to believe Putin is enjoying the heck out of tweaking the Obama administration with all this.

The pivot for Russia is not as long as that required by the U.S.

Japan is a strong U.S. ally.

Then there are the North Koreans.

Never a dull moment.

To paraphrase the movie Jaws, "We're going to need a bigger Navy"

Syria: Russia Supports the Dictator, Ships "Sophisticated" Anti-Ship Missiles

Reported by the BBC as "Syria crisis: Russia 'sends sophisticated weapons'":

Yakhont Missile

According to the New York Times report, a recent Russian shipment to Syria included an advanced form of the Yakhont, a 6.7m-long (22ft) missile with a range of 290km (180 miles) and carrying either a high-explosive or armour-piercing warhead.

UPDATE: NYTimes reports(along the line of Steeljaw's question in the comments below) that these are new and improved Yakhonts:

Russia has previously provided a version of the missiles, called Yakhonts, to Syria. But those delivered recently are outfitted with an advanced radar that makes them more effective, according to American officials who are familiar with classified intelligence reports and would only discuss the shipment on the basis of anonymity.

Yep, it is a order fulfillment from some time ago - one warned of here in 2010:

Four decades later, the P800 Yakhont is far superior than the Styx missiles that failed to protect the Syrian Navy in 1973. Much like the Russian-Indian Brahmos, the earlier Moskit and Supersonic Alpha, Yakhont has the capability to strike its target at supersonic speed, flying

Arrow points to Tartus

at very low level, leaving the defender much shorter time to react.
***
AEGIS systems, used on U.S. Navy and many NATO vessels, the European PAAMS, used by the Royal Navy, French and Italian navies and Israel’s new Barak 8 ship air defense system are designed to match such treats. So does Israel’s ‘Magic Wand’ system, employing the Stunner missile interceptor, capable to counter these potent missiles effectively if employed in surface/surface or ship/surface role.

More on the Yakhont here. 180 mile/300 km maximum range spells some danger to near shore forces, but probably not so much to ships operations in "bluer" water.

Box is around Port of Tartus

The BBC also notes:

Another US newspaper, the Wall Street Journal (see here), reports that Moscow has deployed at least a dozen warships to patrol waters near the Russian naval base in the Syrian city of Tartus.

Bora Class Guided Missile Corvette Samum

Hmmm. I guess if you have only one friend in the area, you gotta stand by and protect your warm water naval base.

More on that base here.

Our friend Cem Devrim Yaylalı (a/k/a Saturn5) has been keeping track of Russian warship traffic through the Turkish Straits, including a new visitor to those waters which appears to have returned home.

Somali Pirates: Early Report - Hijack thwarted by "citadel" and Russian Navy

Yesterday the report was of a ship hijacked in the Red Sea - see here. A new report says the ship is free of pirates and sailing on its own.

NATO reports: "UKMTO reports that the Vessel that was attacked 10 Sept 11 is now safe, and is continuing navigation." No further details available yet.

More in this from Shiptalk.com:

. . . [T]he crew had locked themselves in the citadel the pirates could not gain full control of the vessel and this gave the Russian frigate “Severomorsk” time to act as it headed to the stricken vessel.

RFS Severomorsk (EUNAVFOR photo)

According to EUNAVFOR, RFS Severomorsk is performing escort duties in the Red Sea:

The Russian Federation Northern Fleet ASW frigate RFS SEVEROMORSK is currently escorting the M\V Medi Chennai which is carrying 45,936 metric tons of wheat for the World Food Programme (WFP) through the Red Sea to Djibouti.

An additional tentative article from SomaliaReport, which notes the increased penetration of pirates into the Red Sea.

Russian "handling" of pirates usually does not work out well for the pirates.