Isn't this the way it's supposed to work?

AP Wrangling Over New Iraq Government Begins. It's a two part story- the first about how the free government of Iraq is shaking out and the second about the Iraqi police beginning to get the job done.

Cool.

Going WIGgy

At some point in the dim, dark past, I was exposed to the latest Soviet menace, the wing-in-ground (WIG) ship/plane that could hurtle heavy loads across vast distances at high speed. "Be afraid," we young surface warfare types were advised. Hey, the idea of a 300 mile per hour anything that was hard to see on radar (because it "flies" so low, radar has trouble picking it up) coming after me with missiles a'firing was sobering. My vision looked like this:
(which, as it turns out, was pretty accurate):

These bad boys traveled in teams.

They could conduct high speed amphibious landings. They could carry lots of stuff and deliver it ready to fight.

They could operate with surface navy forces.

And they looked mean as hell.





We had nothing like them. We were doomed. Doomed.

They also seem to have been relegated to the scrap heap of history.

Why?

One reason is that just like the once common flying boats, WIG craft experience problems at take-off. A relatively high take-off speed (even compared to a speedboat), leads to enormous hydrodynamic (ie water) loads on the structure.

When you're in a conventional aeroplane speeding down the runway, it always seems to take an age to lift-off... engines straining to overcome primarily the inertia of the aeroplane. But what if in addition to inertia, the plane was also trying to displace water - instead of just air?

There is a bow wave in front of an object moving through the water at the surface. This wave becomes higher as the speed increases - and this wave is a source of drag. Both wave drag and (hydrodynamic) friction drag are very high for WIG craft when they approach lift-off speed - so high that they determine how much engine power needs to be installed.


The maximum drag often occurs well before the take-off speed - an odd phenomenon that happens because the craft needs to get onto plane (climbing its own bow wave) before it can go faster. In this graph the drag (red line) is shown in relation to speed, with the blue line showing the thrust of the engine. The theoretical maximum speed that this craft can reach is the point where the lines cross. Significantly, the hump drag may be as much as 2 to 3 times higher than the drag in cruise flight.

So in other words, a bloody big engine needs to be carted along during the whole flight, just so that enough speed can be created during take-off to get off the water! Other alternatives include using some engines only during take-off - a common approach in the Ekranoplans.

Various solutions have been tried to decreasing hump drag - stepped hulls, hydro-skis (the Orlyonok discussed below uses pneumatically damped hydro-skis), hydrofoils - and finally, probably the most effective approach, Power Augmentation of Ram wings (PAR), where the craft's engine is used to blow air under the wings.

In addition to the difficulties in unsticking themselves from the water, other disadvantages of WIG craft include - like flying boats - their difficulty in taking off and landing in rough seas, and (unlike flying boats) their difficulty in negotiating oceans with large waves.

Autospeed

Wait, now we know why they didn't fly or sail very well, Mr. Wizard, but what's the science behind their flight anyway?

So just what is this ground effect that we keep referring to?

Since the beginning of manned flight, pilots have experienced something strange when landing an aircraft. Just before touchdown, it suddenly feels that the aircraft wants to keep on flying - to go on and on due to the air cushion that is trapped between the wing and the runway. The effect is most noticeable in aircraft with low and large wings. This phenomenon is called (aerodynamic) ground effect.

The Wright brothers probably never flew out of ground effect in their early flights; they benefited from ground effect without even knowing it existed.

What's the US military have to say about them? Some in the Air Force say

In-Ground Effect Wings
Wing-in-ground effect vehicles (or wingships) are another type of platform design that could provide the size, weight, and volume of lift required in 2025. Wingships are hybrid sea/air vehicles capable of very heavy lift over extremely long ranges. They do so by taking advantage of the ground effect phenomena to provide a significant increase in lift capability over what conventional aircraft are currently capable. Because of these phenomena, it is technologically feasible to build vehicles that are at least three times larger and 10 times heavier than the largest airplane currently built.43 Developed initially by the Russians in the 1960s, the first wingship (named the "Caspian Sea Monster") was capable of lifting 540 tons and cruised at 310 miles per hour.44 This vehicle took off and landed on the sea and held a steady altitude of 10 feet above the surface. Current wingships have the capability of flying between 20 and 90 feet above the surface of the sea and can cruise at 400 knots. Higher altitudes are possible when necessary to transit small land masses or avoid shipping or other obstacles, but these altitudes cause a significant decrease in fuel efficiency. Because of their shallow draft, these vehicles are able to load and unload in shallow and/or undeveloped ports where deep-draft vessels are unable to go.


Developments in lightweight structures and materials have made it technologically feasible to construct a wingship capable of lifting 5,000 tons, although the engines required to power it are still a long way off. The Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) of the Department of Defense (DOD) recently analyzed a wingship that was able to transport 1,500 tons over an unrefueled range of 10,000 nautical miles at a cruising speed of 400 knots.45 Even with this kind of lift and the potential ability to attain altitudes of almost 10,000 feet, the most significant challenge is designing engines that can produce the enormous power to break free of the water and maintain the required power levels for an extended period of time at low altitudes where temperatures are relatively higher than those experienced by conventional aircraft. Other technological problems include stability problems as well as the difficulty of flying over turbulent seas. These problems could potentially be solved by using enhanced computer processing to assist in wingship control.

In addition to these technological drawbacks, the wingship cannot provide the direct delivery and extraction required in 2025 since they are confined to waterways only and are susceptible to interdiction in narrow passageways such as the Suez and Panama Canals. They also require an infrastructure outside of the continental United States, even though that infrastructure does not have to be extensive or large. While the wingship could conceivably deploy and recover UAVs, the UAVs would all have to be powered, driving up the cost of the air mobility system. Ultimately, the wingship is unable to provide a seamless point of use delivery capability to the war fighter without another form of transportation (rail, truck, etc.) to get the cargo and equipment to the battlefield. Because of this, we believe it is not a good platform for the air mobility system of 2025.

Of course, I wouldn't expect the Air Force to be too enthusiastic about what is really sort of a ship...

UPDATED: To fix photos and to delete outdated links.

Maybe Beano would help

Methane gas may reveal signs of life on Mars according to this MSNBC report based on what two NASA researchers say is "strong evidence."

The two scientists, according to sources at the Sunday meeting, based their case in part on Mars’ fluctuating methane signatures that could be a sign of an active underground biosphere and nearby surface concentrations of the sulfate jarosite, a mineral salt found on Earth in hot springs and other acidic bodies of water like Rio Tinto that have been found to harbor life despite their inhospitable environments.

Linebacker had 'stroke-like symptoms' ?

MSNBC reports Pats' Bruschi had 'stroke-like symptoms' .

I hope he is okay, but it's a good reminder to all of us to know the symptoms of stroke and, what is often a stroke precursor, the Transient ischemic attack (TIA). The American Stroke Association provides a pretty good website and lists these symptoms:

-Sudden numbness or weakness of the face, arm or leg, especially on one side of the body
-Sudden confusion, trouble speaking or understanding
-Sudden trouble seeing in one or both eyes
-Sudden trouble walking, dizziness, loss of balance or coordination
-Sudden, severe headache with no known cause

If you experience these symptoms, get to an emergency room as soon as possible. Don't wait just because the symptoms go away- there have been a lot of improvements in the treatment of stroke, but much still hinges on getting treatment quickly.

Not to sound too preachy, but I experienced a stroke a couple of years ago (relatively fit, relatively young, non-smoker with 5 marathons to my credit) - and was lucky enough to go to WebMD and check symptoms. My wife drove me to the nearest hospital and everything worked out fine (no detectible harm to me except I'm a little goofier), but it certainly raised my consciousness about strokes, our nation's No. 3 killer and a leading cause of severe, long-term disability.

By the way, an aspirin a day may help decrease the risk of stroke, too.

Update: More info on Mr. Bruschi here.

Update2: Mr. Bruschi is walking and talking after "mild" stroke says ESPN

Update3: Latest new - Mr. Bruschi appears to be ready to gohome. Important note:

Unlike heart attacks, strokes usually cause no pain, so the warning signs often are missed by victims and people around them. Symptoms include sudden weakness or numbness, dimness or loss of vision, difficulty or inability to speak and severe headaches.

GlobalSecurity: Hot Docs -"Could Al-Qaeda Win?"

If you go to GlobalSecurity.org and look in the "hot documents" column, you will see a link to a PowerPoint presentation titled "Could Al-Qaeda Win?" by Dan Plesch, identified as "Strategic Studies Course, UK Armed Forces, University of Cambridge" and Mr. Plesch as author of The Beauty Queen's Guide to World Peace.

Download it, watch the slide show (does require PowerPoint). Mr. Plesch presents some interesting thoughts to for pondering the GWOT.

The Mystery of the Missing Laptop?

Border Patrol laptop goes missing as reported here
here. May or may not be a security threat.

The long-time sources told 10News that Border Patrol personnel were being interviewed by U.S. Navy (news - web sites) intelligence officers in regards to the laptop. They also described the laptop as a prototype developed to provide access to surveillance video from remote cameras along the border. It was described as a "top secret" project with homeland security applications.

On the other hand,

The organization actually providing the computer hardware and software to the Border Patrol is Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center San Diego (SSC San Diego), another Navy command reporting to SPAWAR, commanded by a Navy captain and headquartered in San Diego under various titles since 1940. Lapuzza says, the laptop which was missing was an unclassified piece of hardware, and at no time did it ever contain top secret, secret or even classified information of any kind. It had no information on "how the borders are protected." It was, as stated somewhat correctly in your story, "part of a prototype surveillance system." It controlled the movement (pan and tilt) of cameras positioned along the border to allow officials to monitor such things as illegal entry into the country. The computer only controlled movement of the cameras; images collected by the cameras were sent elsewhere.

Note to security personnel- Laptops, as any college kid could tell you, are easy to steal.

Hat tip: The Counterterrorism Blog

Cricket Simplified

Here's An Explanation of Cricket.

I still don't get it.

CIA issues warning on China’s military efforts

Financial Times reports here on the new CIA director's warning.

The director of the US Central Intelligence Agency has warned that China's military modernisation is tilting the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait and increasing the threat to US forces in the region.



Delivering the agency's annual assessment of worldwide threats on Wednesday, Porter Goss, a former Republican congressman who was named in September to head the CIA, dropped any mention of the co-operative elements of the US-China relationship that characterised recent CIA statements. Instead, he said China was making determined military and diplomatic efforts to “counter what it sees as US efforts to contain or encircle China”.

Hey, I'm on board. Update: See here and the section about China here.


Update 2/18/05: So is Cdr Salamander

This is not new news: IRAN, SYRIA MISSILES CAN TARGET U.S. INTERESTS

Just because the Middle East Newsline announced it yesterday, doesn't make it new news.

Iran and Syria have acquired the missile capability to target U.S. interests in the Middle East.

A senior U.S. official said Iran and Syria have developed ballistic missiles that can destroy U.S. targets in Iraq as well as in nations aligned with Washington. The official said both countries have received significant assistance from North Korea, which has sought to sell complete missile systems to the Middle East.

"Iran and Syria can currently reach the territory of U.S. friends and allies with their ballistic missiles," Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control Stephen Rademaker said..."

In Mullah Mischief I laid out a crude map of the range of the Iranian missiles- you might notice that my "missile box" includes NATO ally Turkey, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and, as they say, a whole lot more.



One question to ask: How many missiles do Iran and Syria have?

According to Global Security

As of 2003 Syria had a combined total of several hundred Scud and SS-21 SRBMs [short-range ballistic missiles], and is believed to have chemical warheads available for a portion of its Scud missile force. Syria's missiles are mobile and can reach much of Israel from positions near their peacetime garrisons and portions of Iraq, Jordan, and Turkey from launch sites well within the country.

Global Security also has an Iran missile inventory that makes for interesting reading. I suggest clicking on the maps to see how the North Koreans are spreading the danger zones. Frankly, it is beyond my understanding why the Europeans are not screaming that something be done to control the DPRK.

For some additional info on North Korea missiles, go here.

Hat tip: Whizbang. Snarky quote from Whizbang: "There is no axis of evil, of course, that was just Bush hate-mongering." Heh.

Update: The gremlins were busy - fixed a lot ot typos and other glitches.

Update2: Just in time, North Korea has developed an extended range SCUD - the ER as North Korea zone reports here. Things just get better and better in the axis world.

Oh, the horror!

Army -er - everyone (except John of Argghhh!)- making fun of Navy. (Update5: before I was "corrected" by John of Argghhh! this read "Army making fun of Navy" - hence John's righteous indignation. I later modified it to mollify - uh - reflect reality.)

Update4: If you are an Army person and if you are mocking USS Jimmy Carter then I'll match USS Jimmy Carter for performance to design against however many "air not transportable" Strykers you've got...

Update: And, no, I am not a submariner.

Update2: John of Argghhh! accuses me, correctly, of shooting the messenger. Oops. He suggests redirecting fire to Speed of Thought -but SOT has just collected the wit and wisdom of the blog world. Sigh.

Update3: The more I read, the deeper my malaise.

Iran, Syria 'form common front'

BBC NEWS:Iran, Syria 'form common front'.

Iran and Syria say they are to form a common front to face challenges and threats from overseas

Overseas? How about next door?

ONI World Wide Threat to Shipping

The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency offers ONI World Wide Threat to Shipping messages. Here's a highlight from a January 5, 2005 message:

INDONESIA: Authorities announced the arrest of 15 "pirate" ships involved in 91 pirate cases during 2004. The most recent arrest is reportedly pirates of the Aziz group which seized the tug (TONGKANG SURYA WIRYA-1) 12 Dec enroute Singapore to Palembang with a cargo of coal, who were arrested near the Riau Islands. Only 4 of 10 pirates were arrested in the 12 Dec incident and the implication is that the leader remains at large. Western Fleet Commander Purnomo blamed an increase demand for barges for smuggling operations for the rise in piracies and further stated that the pirates arrested had no relation to the Free Aceh Movement which has been routinely blamed for many
Indonesian piracy incidents during 2003 and 2004, and whose are of operation is in any event far removed from South Eastern Sumatra.
ONI NOTE: Despite the admirals' claim regarding demand for
barges, the most recent hijackings have featured seizure of tugs,
with or without barges in tow and, generally abandonment of the
barges in favor of kidnap of the tug's senior officers for ransom
(INFO).

Army Visits Navy

Four star Army General: "But I'm General Abizaid, head of Central Command."
Navy petty officer: "I don't care who you say you are, you still need to go to the back of the line."






The story actually says Maritime Forces Play Crucial Role in War on Terror.

American Samoa Prepares for Hurricane

Or is it a tropical cyclone or typhoon?
AP reports winds up to 190 mph. About 60,000 people in the area.

Projected path:



Good luck to the Samoans.

Update: Missed?

Syria

Maps for fun and speculation:






Was in Damascus once many, many years ago. My recollection was that the road from Beirut went over some relatively steep mountains (there even used to be some sort of ski facility in those mountains). Update: Not just a "facility" - ski resorts. See here. One resort: "Cedars, Feb.14: roads cleared, 4m.of snow on the slopes.All lifts open." Webcam shot of the Cedars:


Update: Opposition to an attack on Syria: Paul Craig Roberts

The identical lies used to deceive Americans about Iraq are now being recycled to justify invading Syria and Iran.

Before exploring this fact, first understand that there is nothing conservative about neoconservatives. Neocons hide behind "conservative" but they are in fact Jacobins.

Jacobins were the 18th century French revolutionaries whose intention to remake Europe in revolutionary France’s image launched the Napoleonic Wars.

from "Neo-Jacobins Push For World War IV"

Assad goes to up armor

Syrian President Bashar Assad has decided to acquire offensive and defensive weapons in 2005 as part of an effort to repel any U.S. or Israeli attack on Syria.

Western intelligence sources said Assad plans to order at least $2 billion worth of Russian or Soviet-origin equipment during his meeting with President Vladimir Putin later this month. The sources said the Assad regime has assessed that U.S. forces based in Iraq would launch a major attack on Syria in 2005.

Syrian officials and government-aligned analysts acknowledge that Assad's visit was meant to acquire advanced Russian weapons to bolster deterrence against Israel and the United States, Middle East Newsline reported. They said they expect the two countries to press Moscow to suspend the SA-18 and other arms deals approved by Putin.

"He is clearly frightened of either an American or Israeli attack or a coup attempt by Washington," a Western intelligence analyst said. "Already, his regime is divided over how to respond to the U.S. threats."

"The chances of the United States invading Syria these days are extremely low," a Western intelligence source said. "But Assad doesn't believe that."

The sources said Assad has acquired funding commitments from Iran and Saudi Arabia to facilitate the Russian arms deal. They said Assad planned to demand immediate transfers of such systems as the SA-18 surface-to-air missile, Kornet-E anti-tank weapon and a Russian upgrade of Syrian artillery.

(Jan 16,2005) U.S. warns Syria about letting weapons out here and the diplomatic squabble here.

Kornet system:




Update: SA-18

Nicholas Eberstadt on "Kim's Nuclear Winter"

If you haven't read much about the latest North Korean nuke flap, a good place to start is with Nicholas Eberstadt: here.

North Korea has borne exactly no costs for what is ostensibly an extraordinarily destabilizing nuclear transgression. Quite the contrary: As the alarming intelligence about the Libya-North Korean connection percolated through Seoul, the South Korean government responded with a new outpouring of concessions and blandishments for the North Korean regime. Over the past few weeks, in fact, Seoul has formally declared that North Korea is no longer the "main enemy" in South Korean defense policy, and has acted to discourage North Korean refugees from trying to go South.

No less significant is Seoul's newly revised position on nuclear aid for Pyongyang. Raising the ante and lowering the bar, Seoul now promises to give "large scale economic support" as soon as the North even "starts to give up its nuclear program." Interestingly enough, less than two weeks after the South unveiled this generous new plan, the North officially declared its status as a nuclear power.

We in the outside world can only speculate about the timing of North Korea's self-proclaimed entry into the nuclear-weapons club. As we reflect on the sorry record of events that has led us to this juncture, however, a most worrisome possibility is that the North Korean state has actually been learning from its interactions with the United States and the rest of the world.

To date, an ever more menacing North Korean nuclear program has in practice encountered only token resistance from the United States and others, despite the obvious and increasing threats that program poses to national interests in many countries. Each new round of North Korean nuclear provocations has generated clear-cut benefits for the North Korean state, rather than incontrovertible costs. It will be very unpleasant--and very expensive--to un-teach Pyongyang the lessons of the past two and a half years.

More on the War with Iran (and an aside on Saudi Arabia)

Roger L. Simon calls for Referendum in Iran - A Proposal for Bloggers:

I think the blogosphere should devote itself to this, make the call for a democratic referendum in Iran one of our top priorities. We have been accused of late (falsely, I believe) of being a destructive force, of tearing things down like a mob. Surely, the call for a referendum in Iran is not that. It is the promotion of democracy at its purest. Bloggers on all sides of our political spectrum should be able to get behind that. I'm in.

However much I might support the idea of a referendum, I'm afraid my thoughts remain below like those of a commentor at Mr. Simon's blog:

More seriously, I cannot imagine mullahs ever agreeing to such referendum – why should they? What is in it for them? Tyrants are not interested in hearing the voice of the people. In any case, since they control the ballot box they also control the outcome of the referendum, presence of Havel and Walesa notwithstanding. Also, there are ways to make sure that people will vote the way you want them to vote: international monitors will be gone in short time, but people who go to the voting booths have to continue with their lives: jobs, health, future of children may be at stake. I think that a lot of good people in the West underestimate the power of “persuasion” that tyrants hold over the civilian populations: unless driven to utter desperation people just want to live, so they can go a long way submitting to the will of the tyrants. No matter how much they may yearn for freedom in their hearts.

I'm afraid the freedom seeking people of Iran will not overthrow their tyrants with any more ease than any peoples have ever done. It's not a referendum that will be needed, but that other "r" word - revolution. In the meantime, War with Iran continues in Iraq, Afghanistan and ---Syria.

(an aside on Saudi Arabia - I wonder if those princes are smarter than we know when they let their young purist firebrands rush off to be killed by the Americans in places like Fallujah? Who will be left in Saudi Arabia to lead the assault on the princes themselves- if it comes to that?)

To Keep Our Honor Clean...

Neptunis Lex in Court Martial has an excellent post on the pending court martial of Marine Lieutenant Pantano in which he argues, correctly in my view, that it is important to let the system work in seeking the truth and that those of us on the outside looking in should be careful about a "rush to judgment" of either innnocence or guilt based on what are, even now, initial and partial (in every sense) reports.

In times where seemingly every election and court decision is challenged on some basis or another, we still need to keep the faith the system will be fair. Others are watching our example. This is no place to make an exception.

Hat tip: Mudville Gazette

Sunnis - Let's try a little of that democracy stuff, too.

Captain's Quarters has excerpts of The Guardian article on a change of minds occurring in the Iraqi Sunni community: (link):

"The British newspaper The Guardian reported earlier today that the Sunni hardliners who called for a boycott of the January elections have now admitted the move was a mistake. Rory Carroll confirms that Sunni leaders now want to support the new democratic processes and hope that the new government will reach out to them as a result..."

Shia and Sunni getting together? Amazing.

U.S. Withdraws Ambassador From Syria

Associated Press reports U.S. Withdraws Ambassador From Syria.

The United States pulled its ambassador from Syria on Tuesday, expressing "profound outrage" over the assassination of a Lebanese leader who had protested Syrian influence in his country. Washington stopped short of directly accusing Syria of carrying out the murder.

What's that ticking sound?

The start of a timer running on Assad.

Update: Diplomatic meaning revealed at News Sisyphus

We trust that the patience of President Bush is running to an end. No other act, except maybe for strikes on Iran, would signal our seriousness at changing the chess board in the Middle East than military strikes aimed at Syria's command and control infrastructure. The illusion of Syrian invulnerability must be broken if Syria is ever to have incentive to change its ways.

Syria wages war more-or-less openly on the U.S. in Iraq. Syria provides refuge for terrorists and terrorist organizations. Syria is a Ba'athist dictatorship that allows no dissent and no liberty. Syria is a brutal occupying power that has destroyed the sovereignty of Lebanon. Syria's unreasonable stance on Israel has ruined hopes for peace in the region for decades.

Syria has been bucking for full Axis of Evil status for some time now. What we may be witnessing are the first steps of its promotion to full membership.