Troop Strength

The American Thinker has an interesting read in Troop Strength and Congress, based on an open letter appearing in The Weekly Standard (link here). The question posed is the right size of the U.S. military and the proper mix of active forces and reserve and Guard forces. Much of this touches on the issues of the "Abrams doctrine" (described here):

The Abrams Doctrine is widely interpreted as an expression of General Creighton Abrams’ determination to maintain a clear linkage between the employment of the Army and the engagement of public support for military operations. Abrams, according to the doctrine, established this bond by creating a force structure that integrated Reserve and Active Components so closely as to make them inextricable, ensuring after Vietnam that presidents would never be able to again send the Army to war without the Reserves and the commitment of the American people.

Getting the military and reserves components exactly "right-sized" is probably impossible, since the needs that need to be addressed shift over time. Today's "hot" unit is tomorrow's backwater... What The Weekly Standard open letter addresses is a simple "up sizing" of the Army and Marines:

The United States military is too small for the responsibilities we are asking it to assume. Those responsibilities are real and important. They are not going away. The United States will not and should not become less engaged in the world in the years to come. But our national security, global peace and stability, and the defense and promotion of freedom in the post-9/11 world require a larger military force than we have today. The administration has unfortunately resisted increasing our ground forces to the size needed to meet today's (and tomorrow's) missions and challenges.

Once again we seem to be rediscovering the lessons of the importance of boots on the ground:

“You may fly over a land forever; you may bomb it, atomize it, pulverize it and wipe it clean of life,” wrote T.R. Fehrenbach. “But if you desire to defend it, protect it, and keep it for civilization, you must do this on the ground, the way the Roman legions did, by putting your young men into the mud.”(This Kind of War: The Classic Korean War History by T. R. Fehrenbach>

Kosovo should have taught us some of the limits of high level air power against a smart enemy, and our prior experiences in Kosovo, Iraq, Rawanda, etc, should have taught us of the need for more active duty "civil affairs" units (although there is much to be said for such units being composed of mayors and city council members who have had practical experience the politics of governing instead of just theory).

None of us wants to return to the days of excess manpower, much of it poorly trained except in marching and painting rocks for base beautification projects. However, there is recognition that something needs to be done:

So we write to ask you and your colleagues in the legislative branch to take the steps necessary to increase substantially the size of the active duty Army and Marine Corps. While estimates vary about just how large an increase is required, and Congress will make its own determination as to size and structure, it is our judgment that we should aim for an increase in the active duty Army and Marine Corps, together, of at least 25,000 troops each year over the next several years. There is abundant evidence that the demands of the ongoing missions in the greater Middle East, along with our continuing defense and alliance commitments elsewhere in the world, are close to exhausting current U.S. ground forces. For example, just late last month, Lieutenant General James Helmly, chief of the Army Reserve, reported that "overuse" in Iraq and Afghanistan could be
leading to a "broken force." Yet after almost two years in Iraq and almost three years in Afghanistan, it should be evident that our engagement in the greater Middle East is truly, in Condoleezza Rice's term, a "generational commitment." The only way to fulfill the military aspect of this commitment is by increasing the size of the force available to our civilian leadership.

(I think the "broke force" matter needs more context as I set out here)

I am one of those who served in the reserves who believes that it is important to have well-trained and equipped reserve component and who believes that in the long run having our reserves gain experience in places like Iraq and Afghanistan helps the "total force" but I also agree that the unwise reductions of the Clinton era need to be reversed and the size of the active ground forces bolstered.

DefenseLINK News: DoD Not Conducting Flights Over Iran, Spokesman Says

DoD Not Conducting Flights Over Iran, Spokesman Says.

Well, even if we didn't, then we shouldn't deny it - let's keep them on their toes for no good reason.

Slightly off topic, here's a good quote:

The insurgents continue to kill "a lot of innocent civilians inside of Iraq," Di Rita added. "Most Iraqis do not want what the insurgents want, which is a country that's thrown itself back into the Dark Ages," he said.

How to know when you've won

Although Reuters headlines it Bush Wins Token NATO Pledge of Iraq Aid, the truth is much bigger than that. The fact that every NATO country will do something in Iraq means that President Bush has won - as have the Iraqi people.

Freedom is on the march! That Reuters describes NATO's help as "largely symbolic" strikes me as sour grapes.

Update: MSNBC take. Oh,yes, the irrelevant French and Germans may not actually send people to Iraq, but will contribute in other ways...

NATO officials said France was the last to come on board and will contribute just one officer to help coordination at NATO’s military headquarters in southern Belgium. But France has separately offered to train 1,500 Iraqi military police in Qatar and play a lead role in European Union efforts to train Iraqi judicial officials.

“In Iraq, France wants to contribute to stability,” Chirac told the meeting.

Mais oui!

U.S. & Japan vs. China

Some interesting thoughts on the implications of the recent U.S.- Japan Joint Statement on Security here.

The statement by the U.S. and Japan makes clear, or as clear as these things can be made, that Taiwan has now become Japan's problem as well. To this end Japan will further integrate its military with the U.S. and train to meet common objectives such as protecting Taiwan from an invasion by China.

Hmmm.

(Hat tip: North Korea zone)

Don't Miss Interview: Chrenkoff and Ledeen

Chrenkoff interviews Ledeen here Good stuff:

The regime in Iran is very frightened right now. Just look at the panicky reaction to the explosion near the nuclear site last week. First it was a missile, then it was a fuel tank, somehow related to "friendly fire." What in the world is THAT? Iranians firing on their own aircraft? Well, maybe, the mullahs don't trust their own armed forces (and they are right not to trust them).

One could do a lot, but for the most part our governments are engaged in ritual dances to avoid coming to grips with the terror masters, hoping somehow to achieve "stability" and security in Iraq, and that this will inspire the others. But there can't be security in Iraq so long as the monsters are in charge in the neighboring countries...

Verrry interesting....

Update: If Ledeen is right, we need to expand our encouragement to the Iranian people to cast off the Mad Mullahs. Patience is required here.

Oh, yes, hat tip to Mudville Gazette

Attack at Aussie Airport? or just paranoia?

Terrorism Unveiled reports on a possible Attack at Aussie Airport?.

CNN report: here

Yahoo News: here

South African News: here

Latest AFP report: here.

We're trying to move as many people as we can tonight," Amanda Bolger said.



While some kind of toxic gas was the main suspect in the incident, the exact cause of the contamination remained a mystery.

"The source has not been located or identified," a Melbourne fire brigade spokesman said Monday night. "All (chemical detection) readings are showing zero."

He said firefighters had spent the day testing everything they could, but found nothing. "Unfortunately, whatever it was has now dissipated," he said.

Well, there are a lot of strange things in world that can cause illness, but it is probably a good idea to treat them all like terrorism...

(Hat tip:Ranting Profs)

Avian Flu World's Biggest Threat? What will North Korea do now?

Reuters report the U.S. Center for Disease Control says Avian Flu World's No. 1 Threat.

I'm sure Kim Jong-il will be disappointed to learn he has dropped in the polls, though many of us consider him a virus on the earth.

"Terrorists" attack Iraqi Infrastructure

In a NY Times article that is in the "not a surprise" category, the Times notes Insurgents Wage Precise Attacks on Baghdad Fuel. What is amazing is that author of this piece felt it necessary to point out

The new pattern, they say, shows that the insurgents have a deep understanding of the complex network of pipelines, power cables and reservoirs feeding Baghdad, the Iraqi capital.

If these "insurgents" really are the dead-ender remnants of the Baathist party and the Iraqi military, wouldn't we expect them to have this kind of knowledge? As one Iraqi said,

The overall pattern of the sabotage and its technical savvy suggests the guidance of the very officials who tended to the nation's infrastructure during Saddam Hussein's long reign, current Iraqi officials say.

The only reasonable conclusion, said Aiham Alsammarae, the Iraqi electricity minister, is that the sabotage operation is being led by former members of the ministries themselves, possibly aided by sympathetic holdovers.

Here's a little NYT hyperbole:

A new analysis by some of those officials shows that the choice of targets and the timing of sabotage attacks has evolved over the past several months, shifting from economic targets to become what amounts to a siege of the capital.

In a stark illustration of the change, of more than 30 sabotage attacks on the oil infrastructure this year, no reported incident has involved the southern crude oil pipelines that are Iraq's main source of revenue. Instead, the attacks have aimed at gas and oil lines feeding power plants and refineries and providing fuel for transportation around Baghdad and in the north.

Well, it may be some form of infrastructure attack, but it doesn't even come close to a "siege." All it does is require a little more planning in protection of such assets. In addition, the Iraqi people, who should already have little or no love for the former officials of the Saddam regime, will, if pushed far enough, hunt these guys down like the dogs they are and administer a little justice, frontier or otherwise. It's a matter of who is running the country.
"
Update 2/21/2005; The Fourth Rail has some parallel thoughts about the Sunni mistaken approach to the Iraqi election - which has left them out of power and with no legitimacy:

Like al Qaeda in Iraq, the Sunnis grossly miscalculated the ability of the insurgents and terrorists to derail the January election, and now they fear being kept from exercising their share of power in a new Iraq (which they consciously relinquished). Recognizing that the Iraq people view the election as a legitimate referendum of the will of the Iraqi people, they now want to reenter the process of forming a government. Their defense of their actions, were it not so serious in the encouragement of the murder of Iraqis and Americans, would be considered comical. They want the fruits of the electoral process - power and decision making – without actually participating in said process...

That dog won't hunt.

Iran Preparing for U.S. Attack

According to The Counterterroism Blog, the Iranians are preparing defenses against a U.S. attack here. Not surprisingly their "lessons learned" include Iraqi-style asymmetrical terrorist-style warfare and organizing more of the cannon-fodder human wave groups who fought Iraq.

Not a surprise that they put so little value in the lives of their citizens.

Sea Lanes

I keep posting about sea lanes. What are these things? Sea lanes are trade routes - almost like highways in the sea, where due to geography, ocean going vessels follow certain paths to avoid islands, shallows and other impediments to their travel. They are also generally the most efficient routes to get from Point A to Point B - as close to straight line travel as a ship can accomplish given the number of obstacles in its path.

Of particular interest in recent days are the sea lanes China is working to find ways to protect. As you can see from the following (which just reference crude oil shipments) these lanes are heavily travelled. In the first chart, I have marked U.S. allies in blue (yes, Singapore is oversized) and areas that China is making claims or working to establish relations as red bursts. Note that the red bursts sit athwart the sea lanes. The second chart is from 2004 and you should be able to detect an increase in crude being shipped.

1993 lanes


Chokepoints: Maritime Economic Concerns in Southeast Asia Institute for National Strategic Studies, Washington,D.C. (National Defense University, 1996)
(color and bursts added)

2004 lanes


from Straits, Passages and Chokepoints: A Maritime Petroleum Distribution by Jean-Paul Rodrigue Rodrigue. Similar charts exist for other raw materials, such as metals.

So? Well, as Parapundit put it so well:

Oil is China's Achilles Heel from the standpoint of military strategy. Even if they use their massive economic growth rate to build a much larger blue water navy (and I expect they will do exactly that) it is far easier to deny the use of the oceans to some nation than to protect the sea lanes. On the other hand, even if the US and China clash over Taiwan the US would have a difficult time denying oil to China while still allowing oil to get through to other nations in East Asia. Though conceivably the US could allow tankers with carefully selected crews of known loyalties to go around New Guinea headed toward Japan and South Korea.

China wants to be in a position to defend its trade route/sea lanes and they are taking steps now to do so.

The fact that they are also vital to Japan, South Korea and lots of other countries is problematic not only for the reasons Parapunit points out, but because the potentially impacted countries are being targeted individually in what really is a collective problem. The U.S. is interested for economic and security reasons.

And that's why I keep posting about it.

The New Iraqi Army: Building the NCO core

In an older article (Feb 8, 2005) from the Wall Street Journal Mark Bowden (of Blackhawk Down fame) puts his finger right on the most essential aspect of rebuilding the Iraqi army - developing a solid core of non-commissioned officers to lead the Iraqi troops.

"Strong NCO leadership gives units in battle far greater flexibility to respond to unexpected situations and to demonstrate initiative."

In the American military, the NCO's provide the deckplate, ground level leadership to the troops (simplified as "how to fight"), while the officers work on tactical and operational leadership (simplified as "where and when to fight") in pursuit of higher level strategic goals (simplified as "what we are trying to achieve") in line with national command policy (simplified as "Why we need to fight"). A platoon sergeant, a corporal, or Air Force sergeants and Navy chief petty officer and petty officers provide the technical expertise to do the job right and keep the troops on task. It is a hugely important role and development of professional NCOs takes time, patience and a great deal of trust.

As reported in the article, the problem of training for the Iraqi army has not been the soldiers, but the leadership, especially the old Saddam officer corps. This problem can be resolved by professionalizing the NCOs and pushing leadership at that level.

When Senator Kennedy made this completely idiotic statement

When we send over Americans that have had 12 weeks of training, like the nephew of my wife, and is a tail gunner on a Striker--12 weeks--and we have the best-trained American servicemen and the best soldiers in the world, there's no reason in the world that we can't expect Iraqis to be trained with four months, eight months, 12 months so that they are going to fight for their country and they're going to be willing to die for it.  And I think that is what is missing when we hear these numbers batted around like we did today.

(see here) he demonstrated a woeful lack of understanding of how hard that process is.

But it is doable.

Base Closures: Why it's hard to get it done...

Names for the panel on base closures have been submitted to the President, and it seems like every Congressperson will be lobbying hard to keep "his or her" bases open, even if it involves the waste of billions of dollars.

Congress has refused repeated requests by the Pentagon to close more bases since 1995. Part of the reason was lingering Republican distrust after President Clinton moved to ease the economic impact from two base closings in vote-rich California and Texas just before his re-election campaign in 1996.

For Every Action There Is An Equal and Opposite Reacton

People irritated with the constant barrage of being forced to listen to other people's inane cell phone conversations are employing cell phone jammers.

I have a few suggested locations, such as restaurants, stores, and other public spaces.

Develop the rock-penetrating nuke

Bill Gertz of the Washington Times looks at the proposed Defense Budget and notes that in there is a request for money to develop a "rock penetrating Nuclear weapon here.

The Pentagon is seeking $419.3 billion for fiscal 2006, a 4.8 percent increase, and wants to renew work on a rock-penetrating nuclear bomb that could be used against underground bunkers in places such as Iran and North Korea.
    Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld recently asked the Energy Department to spend $18 million over the next two years to finish a study on the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator, or RNEP, which congressional opponents of nuclear weapons sought to kill this year by cutting all funding.

Godd idea to have what you may need in inventory....

Update: Space Daily's take
(hat tip: IMAO

UN Kosovo "Not Ready" for review -- not much of a surprise

Radio Free Europe reports UN Chief Dismisses Early Kosovo Status Review.

Annan says in a report to the Security Council that there must be "real progress" in Kosovo before any decision can be taken on its future.

The UN has had over 5 years to "fix" Kosovo.

This decsion is not a surprise to me. Good thing they decided to stay out of Iraq.

The best sitcom episode ever

Script for the best comedy episode ever Chuckles Bites the Dust

Of course, this one was really good, too:

THE BOB NEWHART SHOW
November 22, 1975

"Over the River and Through the Woods," the craziest Bob Newhart Show episode of all time, begins sanely enough: Emily (Suzanne Pleshette) announces her intention to visit her family in Puget Sound over the Thanksgiving holiday; psychiatrist Bob begs off, saying he wants to be available to his neurotic patient, the endlessly depressed and depressing Mr. Carlin. But Carlin can't be happy unless he's making others miserable, so he invites himself over to watch football with Bob, Jerry (Bonerz), and ever-present neighbor Howard (Daily). Of course, there are certain customs that must be observed. "We take a slug of this every time the other team scores," says Jerry, offering an enormous jug of grain alcohol to Bob. Soon things get loco; it's a high-scoring game. Smashed, starving, and facing a frozen turkey, the boys consider cooking the bird at 2,000 degrees for a half hour -- but the oven only heats to 500. "Then we'll use four ovens," suggests Howard. That's when they decide to call out for Chinese food -- to be precise, for Moo Goo Gai Pan (to be more precise, for Moo Goo Goo Goo Gai Pan). And lots of it. So much that it has to be delivered with a hand truck. Luckily for Bob, Emily arrives just in time to pick up the tab -- and put on a pot of coffee.

(100 Greatest TV epsiodes)

The unpleasant taste of his own medicine

Professor Bainbridge on "bullying" allegations brought by the Waxman.

Nobody in Congress knows more about using the power of a committee chairmanship to bully and intimidate witnesses than does Henry Waxman, who did it so well for so many years until the Gingrich Revolution finally put him on the sidelines.

Reminiscent of the whining by Senator Reid when his public record was revealed by the RNC:

Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid on Monday urged President Bush to stop the Republican National Committee from calling him an obstructionist and criticizing his Senate record, a tactic the GOP used to help defeat Reid's predecessor.

These Dems, apparently still in shock over being the minority party, are not liking having the shoe on the other foot. Based on their post-election scrambling, they had better get used to it.

Where do we get these guys?

I recommend a visit here for a little All-American inspiration.
The spirit of the American soldier, Marine, sailor and airman is simply awe inspiring.

Old guys like me used to worry about who would take on the future. No worries, now.

Bless them all!

And, in further celebration of bravery, honor the Marines for their heroic days on Iwo Jima, 60 years ago. Courage lives on.

The oops list

It's an odd collection of disasters that have happened or are about to happen and it's the "The oops list" Warning: For those with time on their hands.

Samples:

Non-Governmental Organizations and the peacekeeper

StrategyPage has some interesting comments on NGOs and how they work here.

The NGOs, as they have taken over the delivery of foreign aid during the last half century, have also become part of the problems they are trying to treat. Despite their description as “non-profits” and “relief workers,” the NGOs live from contract to contract. While “non-profit,” they are not “non-revenue.” They have to bring in contracts to take care of their payroll and expenses. This has become an issue in some of the countries where NGOs operate. The locals have been noticing how much of the aid money given to their country is going through the NGOs, and how the NGOs use a lot of it to pay NGO expenses, and generally distribute the aid as they feel best, without a lot of consulting with the locals. But a major reason so many donor nations prefer to give aid via NGOs is that it cuts down on corruption. In too many poor countries getting emergency aid, local officials are quick to divert aid to personal use. 

It was an eye widening experience for me to learn the NGO "game" - that many of them were out ot get UN and other contracts to manage certain aspects of refugee problems (like camps, mine clearance, water, etc) and that these contracts provide funding that does not all go to the "victims." My observations in Kosovo were that some agencies (including UN agencies) had the latest in SUVs and other equipment, while others drove older trucks and cars. It may be a matter of managing resources, but I always felt better if dealing with an NGO that had older, but still serviceable, equipment because I felt they were better stewards of the funds they had.

More on Wing in Ground

For some reason, probably because you can find almost anything on the internet, I continue to explore the world of wing in ground ship/planes. It seems that the idea sort of lost its luster, but some people never quite gave up on it. For example a Chinese company seems to believe.





And, according to this Getting more strategic lift: Wing-In-Ground effect craft:

China, a great power in the Pacific, is particularly interested in WIG Air-Mech technology. Chinese analysts attribute the following advantages to WIG craft over conventional ships and aircraft:

--Superb Mobility. A WIG Air-Mech craft travels above the water's surface to travel in the air whose density is 800 times less than that of water. This greatly decreases the drag exerted on ordinary vessels and greatly increases its speed. Fast transports have a top speed of 20 knots. A conventional warship has a maximum speed of 30 to 40 knots, and although the hulls of hydrofoil craft and hovercraft travel above the water, their hydrofoils and their aprons still come in contact with the water. Thus their speed is limited to between 70 and 80 knots or less. But a WIG Air-Mech craft can travel between 300 and 400 knots.

--Superb Airworthiness. A WIG craft can fly around bad weather or fly above a stormy sea. Since a WIG craft is not pounded by the storm waves it is remarkably seaworthy. It is also very airworthy.

--Ease of Operation. A WIG craft is controlled through its vertical rudder, its elevator, and its wing flaps. It is simpler to fly than an airplane, and it turns easily. The WIG craft's speed and altitude are easily controlled by the flaps.

--Economical operation. Pressure under the wings of a WIG craft increases greatly by flying fairly close to the water surface. Consequently, only 80 to 130 horsepower are required to propel each ton of weight. The large lift-drag ratio means that fuel-consumption is less and the cruising radius is expanded when compared to similar-sized aircraft. WIG craft are far superior to ordinary aircraft and helicopters in carrying capacity, speed, and cruising radius when using the same power.

--Convenient Maintenance. WIG craft do not need permanent shore bases. Unlike other high-speed craft, they are able to come ashore under their own power and do not need cranes or chutes. Furthermore, since they have no aprons, like hovercraft, maintenance is very convenient. WIG craft do not have to make a gliding takeoff from the water or land on the water like seaplanes. This lessens the corrosive effect of seawater on the hull.

--Diverse Flight Modes. Not only can WIG craft fly quickly and steadily above water, under radar detection but they can also fly above beaches, marshes, grasslands, deserts, glaciers, and snow-covered land.

--Flight Safety. Should the engines fail, the WIG craft can travel on the water like a conventional ship. They are stable craft, which have operated safely over the years. Some WIG craft vent their engine exhaust forward beneath the wings of the craft to create an increase in dynamic lift. This not only assists takeoff and improves amphibious performance, but also improves flight safety.

--Military applications. The speed, maneuverability, amphibious capability, and reduced signature of WIG craft are greater than that of other craft. Their fast, low-altitude approach may allow them to become the next generation of fast attack craft replacing hydroplanes and hydrofoils. Since WIG craft usually fly within 50 meters of the surface, they are in the radar sweep and search blind zone. The ultra-low altitude of WIG craft leaves no traces on the water surface and is difficult to detect by radar. WIG craft are not optically trackable from space like conventional surface ships. This greatly increases the concealment and surprise attack capabilities of the craft. This extraordinary concealment capability has extremely important military significance. WIG craft may be used as Air-Mech landing craft and for the rapid and effective movement of Heavy AFVs, Gavins/Ridgway and M8 Buford AGS Armored Fighting Vehicles and troops in a campaign. The low-flying altitude, the long cruising radius, and the AFV carrying-capacity of WIG craft are second to only ships. WIG craft are also suited for anti-submarine patrol craft, high-speed minelayers, minesweepers, and rescue craft.

FuturePundit discussed WIG back in 2002 here

And, Boeing has explored the world of WIG - with the Pelican: here, here and the Boeing site: here

"The Pelican can broaden the range of missions for which airplanes are the favored way to deliver cargo," said Boeing's Pelican program manager Blaine Rawdon, who is designing the plane with Boeing engineer Zachary Hoisington. "It is much faster than ships at a fraction of the operational cost of current airplanes. This will be attractive to commercial and military operators who desire speed, worldwide range and high throughput. We envision that the Pelican can multiply aircraft's 1-percent share in a commercial market now dominated by container ships."


John Skorupa, senior manager of strategic development for Boeing Advanced Airlift and Tankers, said, "The Pelican currently stands as the only identified means by which the U.S. Army can achieve its deployment transformation goals of deploying one division in five days, or five divisions in 30 days, anywhere in the world." If necessary, he said, the Pelican could carry 17 M-1 main battle tanks on a single sortie. Commercially, the aircraft's size and efficiency would allow it to carry types of cargo equivalent to those carried by container ships, at more than 10 times the speed.

"It is attracting interest as a mother ship for unmanned vehicles, enabling rapid deployment of a network-centric warfare grid, a likely future mode of operation for modernized U.S. forces as demonstrated in Afghanistan," Skorupa said. "And it is attracting interest as a potential first-stage platform for piggybacking reusable space vehicles to an appropriate launch altitude.

"Why would such a huge airplane be flown at such a low altitude?

By flying low, the Pelican, like its name-sake, exploits the aerodynamic benefits of a well-known phenomenon called ground effect. Flying close to water, the wing downwash angle and tip vortices are suppressed, resulting in a major drag reduction and outstanding cruise efficiency.

"It's an effect that provides extraordinary range and efficiency," Skorupa said. "With a payload of 1.5 million pounds, the Pelican could fly 10,000 nautical miles over water and 6,500 nautical miles over land.

"Flying in ground effect demands the latest flight control technology, conceded Skorupa. Reliable systems will provide precise, automatic altitude control and collision avoidance. Cruise altitude will be adjusted according to sea state, and if the seas get too rough, the Pelican can easily climb to high altitude to continue the flight.

For the military, of course, it's all about getting there in a hurry with a lot of stuff, although having to have a "landing field" to handle the Pelican's landing gear may prove a non-starter.

And, don't forget there have been a few other aviation ideas that didn't quite pan out.

The Return of the Gyroplane?

The Army may be thinking outside the box. Here's a possible replacement for the C-130 - a return to the Gyroplane as presented by CarterAviationTechnologies.com

And the Navy, too, according to Sea Power

The Pentagon Office of Force Transformation and the Navy's fleet readiness and logistics office are assessing a 50-year-old technology to fill one of the biggest gaps in a naval warfighting concept for the future. The heliplane, a hybrid craft with both a rotor and wings, might be a way to provide the fleet with heavy lift "connectors" to rapidly move troops and materiel from ships at sea to tactical units ashore.


A key to the Navy's sea basing concept is for a craft that can lift a 40,000-pound cargo container and move it quickly to forward units. The idea behind sea basing is that U.S. forces sent to world hot spots will operate from the sea rather than building supply depots and headquarters ashore. Striking from ships at least 25 miles from shore, they would avoid traditional battlefront tactics and rely on the elements of high-speed strike, maneuver and surprise to force adversaries into a reactive posture. However, the services lack the fast, powerful "connectors" necessary to make that happen.


Arthur K. Cebrowski, director of the Office of Force Transformation, recently told reporters, "There are some things that we are keenly interested in. One of them is work on a gyrocopter. We stopped research on gyrocopters a long time ago, but right now there are people who believe" - and have demonstrated with a small-scale flying prototype - "that we may be able to lift upwards of 70,000 pounds at 450 knots and fly it over 30,000 feet and do vertical takeoff and landing."


The concept of which Cebrowski spoke is a proposed design by Carter Aviation Technologies of Wichita Falls, Texas. The design, called a Carter Heliplane Transport 150 (CHT-150), is a craft the size of a C-130 cargo plane. The heliplane is based on gyroplane technology in which a rotor is used for vertical and slow-speed flight. When cruising at high speeds, the wing provides all the lift, Carter Aviation said. The heliplane has long wings for efficient cruise, a four-blade rotor for hover and slow-speed flight, and two 24-foot-diameter lightweight pusher propellers for forward propulsion.


In flight, the heliplane gradually transfers lift and flight functions from the rotor to the wings. "A rotor is a very efficient device for providing lift at low speeds, but its drag increases rapidly" if the rotor must continue to support the aircraft as it picks up speed, according to a statement on the company's website. As the wings produce more of the lift, the rotor slows down, decreasing drag.

It's not pretty:



But it can carry the goods.



It may have non-military uses.



Update: Another company in the Gyroplane competition: Groen Brothers
which even proposes converting C-130's to autodynes



And the use for "sea-basing":



Hey, it's all about logistics.

Syrian Armed Force Purge

Interesting take on changes in the Syrian armed forces from the DEBKAfile. Sample:

Our military sources note that, for the relatively modest investment of $45 million to $60 million a year, Iran has acquired control over the most sophisticated sectors of Syria’s military industries. They are available as Tehran’s backdoor suppliers of missiles, non-conventional weapons and ammunition for any contingency, such as the Iranian armed forces or a surrogate, like the Hizballah, being called upon to fight in a part of the Middle East that is far from the Islamic Republic’s borders.

DEBKAfile’s military analysts note that while the Syrian army is not directly mixed up in US-insurgent warfare in Iraq, its military intelligence remains a separate and potent instrument of the Assad regime’s strategic policies. This entity is currently proactive on four fronts:

1. Iraq. Syrian military intelligence supports the Baathist guerrilla campaign by recruiting, training and dispatching combatants to Iraq from among the terrorist groups Assad sponsors such as the Lebanese Hizballah and such radical Palestinian organizations as the Jihad Islami and Jibril’s Popular Front – General Command. Recruiting also takes place in Syrian city slum districts and among Palestinian refugee camp inmates with Syrian citizenship.

NASA rejects claims about life on Mars

MSNBC - NASA rejects claims about life on Mars

NASA on Friday issued an unusual denial of a report that its researchers saw strong evidence for life's existence on present-day Mars, based in part on atmospheric methane readings. Other scientists involved in Mars research said the jury was still out on the meaning of Martian methane, but they agreed that preliminary findings are well worth a follow-up.

Well, I didn't put the methane there.

Cosmic Explosion Hits Earth, Alters Climate, Bush to Blame

MSNBC - Brightest galactic flash ever detected hits Earth :

A huge explosion halfway across the galaxy packed so much power it briefly altered Earth's upper atmosphere in December, astronomers said Friday.

I just made up the stuff about Bush to make some people feel more comfortable here. "He didn't sign the Kyoto Treaty!"

Oil, Sea Lanes and Navies

International Herald Tribune says India joins China in a worldwide rush for oil and gas

Now India is joining China in a stepped-up contest for energy, with both economies booming while their domestic oil production sags. China is now the world's second-largest energy consumer, trailing only the United States. India has moved into fourth place, behind Russia.
China and India are also expanding their navies as they become increasingly dependent on lines of oil tankers from the Middle East, posing the beginnings of an eventual challenge to U.S. influence in the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea.

(emphasis added)

See here and the section about China here.

Update: More thoughts- The Big Picture notes China's Oil Grab in its dealings with Venzuela and Russia.

Don't forget its action in the Sudan (one reason why Darfur gets no UN traction) and its deal with Iran.

China is looking out for China.

Update: Chrenkoff highlights posts on bloggers who note "It's a dangerous world out there." Interesting to note that China's growth and demands for raw materials plays a role. As noted in the links above, China has deals with Iran, Sudan, Venezuela, Russia, and a lot of other places. Of particular interest to me from a naval point of view is some of the material gathered by Chuck Simmins here:

What, then, are the specific challenges? Jiang Zhijun saidt hat in view of the fact that the primary task of China’s naval defense force, as stipulated by China’s national interests, is to complete the reunification process with Taiwan. At the same time, the naval force is also entrusted with the protection of China’s maritime rights and interests against possible invasion and damage, and to safeguard China’s rapidly growing export-oriented economy. Further, the drastically changed modern day warfare has also meant that long-range precision attacks characterizing high technology warfare will pose another grim threat to China’s defense of the territorial seas.

With Taiwan in hand, the Pacific Ocean will become China’s open field to the East

China is the only major country in today’s world that has not been unified. If China were to become strong, it would have to complete the grand task of reunification. The strategic importance of Taiwan simply can not be over-stated. Jiang Zhijun noted that the present state of China’s maritime security is rather grave. Generally speaking, the defense proficiency is not good, the level of defense combat effectiveness is low and there is little initiative control power.

China’s territorial waters are mostly composed of enclosed or semi-enclosed areas surrounded by the “first island chain”. Looking from north to south, apart from the South China Sea, all of China’s sea territory directly faces east towards the Pacific Ocean. The distance of most of the “first island chain” areas is no more than 200 nautical miles to China’s coast, which, in modern warfare, is within easy effective strike range. Locked in by the “first island chain” blockade, China’s sea defense force could hardly move beyond the boundary to carry out any meaningful defense operation. The only thing to do is to back up against the coastal lines to conduct shallow water defense. Since combat occurs right outside China’s doorway, China will be fighting close at home and is left with hardly any maneuver room to take operational initiative. Taiwan ought to be China’s natural gateway, but, if things went sour, it could then turn out to be other people’s stepping board for attacks against China.

Every big country bordering on both land and sea must have a safe exit point out to the waters. However, China’s exit point to the sea is questionable. It might not be a problem during times of peace, but during crisis, if the enemy country seals off the “first island chain,” then China would lose its exit way and the channel to connect to the outside world via the sea.

However, once the Taiwan issue is resolved, all the above strategic maritime safety concerns would automatically dissipate. Taiwan is China’s ideal seaward exit way bequeathed to us by our ancestors. As long as Taiwan is in China’s hand, then the Pacific would be an open area to China. Taiwan itself is a key link in the “first island chain”. After Taiwan is reunified with mainland China, this “first island chain” blockade will be broken, enabling the Chinese troops to expand their defense lines out to the Pacific in the East in order to better protect the safety of China’s coast and inland. By that time, the Taiwan Strait would become a safe and convenient route of communication for transporting troops and supplies between north and south.

In terms of China’s maritime rights and interests, Taiwan is also of immense significance. The issue of China’s maritime interests is addressed too late and the extensive degree of damage China has endured is rarely seen among other major countries of the world. Almost half of what should have always been Chinese territory according to international maritime laws have been forcefully taken away or invaded, the natural resources being looted routinely. Once the (Taiwan) reunification mission is completed, Diaoyu (Senkaku) Island to the North and the waters surrounding it would fall into the range of the Chinese gunfire protection. To the south, the distance from China’s coastal defense force to all the South China Sea islands and regions will be shortened by a big margin.

(source United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission)

Also worthy of noting:

Although Beijing's claims over Taiwan remain the focus of world attention, China is embroiled in unresolved territorial maritime and land issues with no less than 13 of its neighbours. Given that China's military capability is growing apace with its economy, the potential for military conflict over the disputed regions is similarly on the rise.

(also from Chick Simmins, original The Standard (China)

Those sea lanes? Let's go to the map again:



The red arrows point to places that China is working on to build up secure sea lanes for its raw materials.

It is a dangerous world.

How dangerous is North Korea?

Strategy Page has some thoughts on the topic in military news about Korea.

Despite North Korea's self-proclaimed nuclear weapons, Iran is still a bigger threat to the world, because Iran supports terrorism, even the Sunni terrorists who consider Iranian Shias to be heretics.  The North Koreans are mainly a threat to South Korea, China, Russia and Japan. These four nations are trying to get North Korea to behave, and either fix it's crumbling communist era economy, or collapse quietly and let South Korea take over. However, the people running North Korea (and no one outside the country is entirely sure exactly who that is) do not operate according to any normal logic. The constant fear is that North Korea, with its large, but weakening, armed forces, will somehow lash out and invade South Korea.

and

The most talked about threats, like missiles and nuclear weapons, are blown out of proportion. The North Koreans have basically taken the World War II German technology found in the SCUDs, and scaled it up to produce multi-stage missiles that can, possibly, reach halfway across the Pacific. But it is potential, at the moment, more than actual capability. The guidance system technology the North Koreans have is not first rate, and even the use of GPS for guidance is doubtful because of meager North Korean engineering resources. Moreover, there is the engineering required to make a nuclear weapon (theirs has not even been tested yet) work in a missile warhead. Their Taepo Dong 2 intercontinental missile has not been test fired yet. The Taepo Dong 1 has been used, which gives you something to work with. The range for the Taepo Dong 2 is an extrapolation (from 2,000 kilometers for the 1 to three times that for the Taepo Dong 2). It's much ado about nothing, unless it can reach the Alaska, Hawaii, or maybe US West Coast. Maybe.

Oh, yes, and, of course, a main source of revenue is exporting weapons:

The "No Dong" missiles have seen incremental improvements to assist their export program. The No Dong sales are a major source of hard currency. These missiles are basically improved SCUDs.

As I've said before, the DPRK is not in a good geographic location to be threatening the world. It is surrounded by greater powers and separated from its ancient enemy, Japan, by miles of ocean which it cannot hope to reach across except by missiles. However, such an attack on Japan will be dealt with pretty roughly.



North Korea is like the grade school bully who is just annoying enough to shake some lunch money loose just to keep him quiet, but runs the real risk of making some bigger, stronger kid mad enough to put him in his place. I like the Strategy Page's concluding sentences:

The North Korean leadership has a lot to be afraid of, but the United States is only one of many objects of terror for them. It's gotten to the point where North Korean generals are not sure their troops would follow through if ordered to attack the south. So there you have it. Unreliable troops and missiles, untested nukes and a North Korean population that is starving to death. And none to happy with their present leaders. Perhaps it's no surprise that the North Korean leadership acts a bit mad. They have a lot to be mad about.

Update; Captain's Quarters reports that North Korea may have backed off another hard line stance herein their game of international blackmail.

Isn't this the way it's supposed to work?

AP Wrangling Over New Iraq Government Begins. It's a two part story- the first about how the free government of Iraq is shaking out and the second about the Iraqi police beginning to get the job done.

Cool.

Going WIGgy

At some point in the dim, dark past, I was exposed to the latest Soviet menace, the wing-in-ground (WIG) ship/plane that could hurtle heavy loads across vast distances at high speed. "Be afraid," we young surface warfare types were advised. Hey, the idea of a 300 mile per hour anything that was hard to see on radar (because it "flies" so low, radar has trouble picking it up) coming after me with missiles a'firing was sobering. My vision looked like this:
(which, as it turns out, was pretty accurate):

These bad boys traveled in teams.

They could conduct high speed amphibious landings. They could carry lots of stuff and deliver it ready to fight.

They could operate with surface navy forces.

And they looked mean as hell.





We had nothing like them. We were doomed. Doomed.

They also seem to have been relegated to the scrap heap of history.

Why?

One reason is that just like the once common flying boats, WIG craft experience problems at take-off. A relatively high take-off speed (even compared to a speedboat), leads to enormous hydrodynamic (ie water) loads on the structure.

When you're in a conventional aeroplane speeding down the runway, it always seems to take an age to lift-off... engines straining to overcome primarily the inertia of the aeroplane. But what if in addition to inertia, the plane was also trying to displace water - instead of just air?

There is a bow wave in front of an object moving through the water at the surface. This wave becomes higher as the speed increases - and this wave is a source of drag. Both wave drag and (hydrodynamic) friction drag are very high for WIG craft when they approach lift-off speed - so high that they determine how much engine power needs to be installed.


The maximum drag often occurs well before the take-off speed - an odd phenomenon that happens because the craft needs to get onto plane (climbing its own bow wave) before it can go faster. In this graph the drag (red line) is shown in relation to speed, with the blue line showing the thrust of the engine. The theoretical maximum speed that this craft can reach is the point where the lines cross. Significantly, the hump drag may be as much as 2 to 3 times higher than the drag in cruise flight.

So in other words, a bloody big engine needs to be carted along during the whole flight, just so that enough speed can be created during take-off to get off the water! Other alternatives include using some engines only during take-off - a common approach in the Ekranoplans.

Various solutions have been tried to decreasing hump drag - stepped hulls, hydro-skis (the Orlyonok discussed below uses pneumatically damped hydro-skis), hydrofoils - and finally, probably the most effective approach, Power Augmentation of Ram wings (PAR), where the craft's engine is used to blow air under the wings.

In addition to the difficulties in unsticking themselves from the water, other disadvantages of WIG craft include - like flying boats - their difficulty in taking off and landing in rough seas, and (unlike flying boats) their difficulty in negotiating oceans with large waves.

Autospeed

Wait, now we know why they didn't fly or sail very well, Mr. Wizard, but what's the science behind their flight anyway?

So just what is this ground effect that we keep referring to?

Since the beginning of manned flight, pilots have experienced something strange when landing an aircraft. Just before touchdown, it suddenly feels that the aircraft wants to keep on flying - to go on and on due to the air cushion that is trapped between the wing and the runway. The effect is most noticeable in aircraft with low and large wings. This phenomenon is called (aerodynamic) ground effect.

The Wright brothers probably never flew out of ground effect in their early flights; they benefited from ground effect without even knowing it existed.

What's the US military have to say about them? Some in the Air Force say

In-Ground Effect Wings
Wing-in-ground effect vehicles (or wingships) are another type of platform design that could provide the size, weight, and volume of lift required in 2025. Wingships are hybrid sea/air vehicles capable of very heavy lift over extremely long ranges. They do so by taking advantage of the ground effect phenomena to provide a significant increase in lift capability over what conventional aircraft are currently capable. Because of these phenomena, it is technologically feasible to build vehicles that are at least three times larger and 10 times heavier than the largest airplane currently built.43 Developed initially by the Russians in the 1960s, the first wingship (named the "Caspian Sea Monster") was capable of lifting 540 tons and cruised at 310 miles per hour.44 This vehicle took off and landed on the sea and held a steady altitude of 10 feet above the surface. Current wingships have the capability of flying between 20 and 90 feet above the surface of the sea and can cruise at 400 knots. Higher altitudes are possible when necessary to transit small land masses or avoid shipping or other obstacles, but these altitudes cause a significant decrease in fuel efficiency. Because of their shallow draft, these vehicles are able to load and unload in shallow and/or undeveloped ports where deep-draft vessels are unable to go.


Developments in lightweight structures and materials have made it technologically feasible to construct a wingship capable of lifting 5,000 tons, although the engines required to power it are still a long way off. The Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) of the Department of Defense (DOD) recently analyzed a wingship that was able to transport 1,500 tons over an unrefueled range of 10,000 nautical miles at a cruising speed of 400 knots.45 Even with this kind of lift and the potential ability to attain altitudes of almost 10,000 feet, the most significant challenge is designing engines that can produce the enormous power to break free of the water and maintain the required power levels for an extended period of time at low altitudes where temperatures are relatively higher than those experienced by conventional aircraft. Other technological problems include stability problems as well as the difficulty of flying over turbulent seas. These problems could potentially be solved by using enhanced computer processing to assist in wingship control.

In addition to these technological drawbacks, the wingship cannot provide the direct delivery and extraction required in 2025 since they are confined to waterways only and are susceptible to interdiction in narrow passageways such as the Suez and Panama Canals. They also require an infrastructure outside of the continental United States, even though that infrastructure does not have to be extensive or large. While the wingship could conceivably deploy and recover UAVs, the UAVs would all have to be powered, driving up the cost of the air mobility system. Ultimately, the wingship is unable to provide a seamless point of use delivery capability to the war fighter without another form of transportation (rail, truck, etc.) to get the cargo and equipment to the battlefield. Because of this, we believe it is not a good platform for the air mobility system of 2025.

Of course, I wouldn't expect the Air Force to be too enthusiastic about what is really sort of a ship...

UPDATED: To fix photos and to delete outdated links.

Maybe Beano would help

Methane gas may reveal signs of life on Mars according to this MSNBC report based on what two NASA researchers say is "strong evidence."

The two scientists, according to sources at the Sunday meeting, based their case in part on Mars’ fluctuating methane signatures that could be a sign of an active underground biosphere and nearby surface concentrations of the sulfate jarosite, a mineral salt found on Earth in hot springs and other acidic bodies of water like Rio Tinto that have been found to harbor life despite their inhospitable environments.

Linebacker had 'stroke-like symptoms' ?

MSNBC reports Pats' Bruschi had 'stroke-like symptoms' .

I hope he is okay, but it's a good reminder to all of us to know the symptoms of stroke and, what is often a stroke precursor, the Transient ischemic attack (TIA). The American Stroke Association provides a pretty good website and lists these symptoms:

-Sudden numbness or weakness of the face, arm or leg, especially on one side of the body
-Sudden confusion, trouble speaking or understanding
-Sudden trouble seeing in one or both eyes
-Sudden trouble walking, dizziness, loss of balance or coordination
-Sudden, severe headache with no known cause

If you experience these symptoms, get to an emergency room as soon as possible. Don't wait just because the symptoms go away- there have been a lot of improvements in the treatment of stroke, but much still hinges on getting treatment quickly.

Not to sound too preachy, but I experienced a stroke a couple of years ago (relatively fit, relatively young, non-smoker with 5 marathons to my credit) - and was lucky enough to go to WebMD and check symptoms. My wife drove me to the nearest hospital and everything worked out fine (no detectible harm to me except I'm a little goofier), but it certainly raised my consciousness about strokes, our nation's No. 3 killer and a leading cause of severe, long-term disability.

By the way, an aspirin a day may help decrease the risk of stroke, too.

Update: More info on Mr. Bruschi here.

Update2: Mr. Bruschi is walking and talking after "mild" stroke says ESPN

Update3: Latest new - Mr. Bruschi appears to be ready to gohome. Important note:

Unlike heart attacks, strokes usually cause no pain, so the warning signs often are missed by victims and people around them. Symptoms include sudden weakness or numbness, dimness or loss of vision, difficulty or inability to speak and severe headaches.

GlobalSecurity: Hot Docs -"Could Al-Qaeda Win?"

If you go to GlobalSecurity.org and look in the "hot documents" column, you will see a link to a PowerPoint presentation titled "Could Al-Qaeda Win?" by Dan Plesch, identified as "Strategic Studies Course, UK Armed Forces, University of Cambridge" and Mr. Plesch as author of The Beauty Queen's Guide to World Peace.

Download it, watch the slide show (does require PowerPoint). Mr. Plesch presents some interesting thoughts to for pondering the GWOT.

The Mystery of the Missing Laptop?

Border Patrol laptop goes missing as reported here
here. May or may not be a security threat.

The long-time sources told 10News that Border Patrol personnel were being interviewed by U.S. Navy (news - web sites) intelligence officers in regards to the laptop. They also described the laptop as a prototype developed to provide access to surveillance video from remote cameras along the border. It was described as a "top secret" project with homeland security applications.

On the other hand,

The organization actually providing the computer hardware and software to the Border Patrol is Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center San Diego (SSC San Diego), another Navy command reporting to SPAWAR, commanded by a Navy captain and headquartered in San Diego under various titles since 1940. Lapuzza says, the laptop which was missing was an unclassified piece of hardware, and at no time did it ever contain top secret, secret or even classified information of any kind. It had no information on "how the borders are protected." It was, as stated somewhat correctly in your story, "part of a prototype surveillance system." It controlled the movement (pan and tilt) of cameras positioned along the border to allow officials to monitor such things as illegal entry into the country. The computer only controlled movement of the cameras; images collected by the cameras were sent elsewhere.

Note to security personnel- Laptops, as any college kid could tell you, are easy to steal.

Hat tip: The Counterterrorism Blog

Cricket Simplified

Here's An Explanation of Cricket.

I still don't get it.

CIA issues warning on China’s military efforts

Financial Times reports here on the new CIA director's warning.

The director of the US Central Intelligence Agency has warned that China's military modernisation is tilting the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait and increasing the threat to US forces in the region.



Delivering the agency's annual assessment of worldwide threats on Wednesday, Porter Goss, a former Republican congressman who was named in September to head the CIA, dropped any mention of the co-operative elements of the US-China relationship that characterised recent CIA statements. Instead, he said China was making determined military and diplomatic efforts to “counter what it sees as US efforts to contain or encircle China”.

Hey, I'm on board. Update: See here and the section about China here.


Update 2/18/05: So is Cdr Salamander

This is not new news: IRAN, SYRIA MISSILES CAN TARGET U.S. INTERESTS

Just because the Middle East Newsline announced it yesterday, doesn't make it new news.

Iran and Syria have acquired the missile capability to target U.S. interests in the Middle East.

A senior U.S. official said Iran and Syria have developed ballistic missiles that can destroy U.S. targets in Iraq as well as in nations aligned with Washington. The official said both countries have received significant assistance from North Korea, which has sought to sell complete missile systems to the Middle East.

"Iran and Syria can currently reach the territory of U.S. friends and allies with their ballistic missiles," Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control Stephen Rademaker said..."

In Mullah Mischief I laid out a crude map of the range of the Iranian missiles- you might notice that my "missile box" includes NATO ally Turkey, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and, as they say, a whole lot more.



One question to ask: How many missiles do Iran and Syria have?

According to Global Security

As of 2003 Syria had a combined total of several hundred Scud and SS-21 SRBMs [short-range ballistic missiles], and is believed to have chemical warheads available for a portion of its Scud missile force. Syria's missiles are mobile and can reach much of Israel from positions near their peacetime garrisons and portions of Iraq, Jordan, and Turkey from launch sites well within the country.

Global Security also has an Iran missile inventory that makes for interesting reading. I suggest clicking on the maps to see how the North Koreans are spreading the danger zones. Frankly, it is beyond my understanding why the Europeans are not screaming that something be done to control the DPRK.

For some additional info on North Korea missiles, go here.

Hat tip: Whizbang. Snarky quote from Whizbang: "There is no axis of evil, of course, that was just Bush hate-mongering." Heh.

Update: The gremlins were busy - fixed a lot ot typos and other glitches.

Update2: Just in time, North Korea has developed an extended range SCUD - the ER as North Korea zone reports here. Things just get better and better in the axis world.

Oh, the horror!

Army -er - everyone (except John of Argghhh!)- making fun of Navy. (Update5: before I was "corrected" by John of Argghhh! this read "Army making fun of Navy" - hence John's righteous indignation. I later modified it to mollify - uh - reflect reality.)

Update4: If you are an Army person and if you are mocking USS Jimmy Carter then I'll match USS Jimmy Carter for performance to design against however many "air not transportable" Strykers you've got...

Update: And, no, I am not a submariner.

Update2: John of Argghhh! accuses me, correctly, of shooting the messenger. Oops. He suggests redirecting fire to Speed of Thought -but SOT has just collected the wit and wisdom of the blog world. Sigh.

Update3: The more I read, the deeper my malaise.

Iran, Syria 'form common front'

BBC NEWS:Iran, Syria 'form common front'.

Iran and Syria say they are to form a common front to face challenges and threats from overseas

Overseas? How about next door?

ONI World Wide Threat to Shipping

The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency offers ONI World Wide Threat to Shipping messages. Here's a highlight from a January 5, 2005 message:

INDONESIA: Authorities announced the arrest of 15 "pirate" ships involved in 91 pirate cases during 2004. The most recent arrest is reportedly pirates of the Aziz group which seized the tug (TONGKANG SURYA WIRYA-1) 12 Dec enroute Singapore to Palembang with a cargo of coal, who were arrested near the Riau Islands. Only 4 of 10 pirates were arrested in the 12 Dec incident and the implication is that the leader remains at large. Western Fleet Commander Purnomo blamed an increase demand for barges for smuggling operations for the rise in piracies and further stated that the pirates arrested had no relation to the Free Aceh Movement which has been routinely blamed for many
Indonesian piracy incidents during 2003 and 2004, and whose are of operation is in any event far removed from South Eastern Sumatra.
ONI NOTE: Despite the admirals' claim regarding demand for
barges, the most recent hijackings have featured seizure of tugs,
with or without barges in tow and, generally abandonment of the
barges in favor of kidnap of the tug's senior officers for ransom
(INFO).

Army Visits Navy

Four star Army General: "But I'm General Abizaid, head of Central Command."
Navy petty officer: "I don't care who you say you are, you still need to go to the back of the line."






The story actually says Maritime Forces Play Crucial Role in War on Terror.

American Samoa Prepares for Hurricane

Or is it a tropical cyclone or typhoon?
AP reports winds up to 190 mph. About 60,000 people in the area.

Projected path:



Good luck to the Samoans.

Update: Missed?

Syria

Maps for fun and speculation:






Was in Damascus once many, many years ago. My recollection was that the road from Beirut went over some relatively steep mountains (there even used to be some sort of ski facility in those mountains). Update: Not just a "facility" - ski resorts. See here. One resort: "Cedars, Feb.14: roads cleared, 4m.of snow on the slopes.All lifts open." Webcam shot of the Cedars:


Update: Opposition to an attack on Syria: Paul Craig Roberts

The identical lies used to deceive Americans about Iraq are now being recycled to justify invading Syria and Iran.

Before exploring this fact, first understand that there is nothing conservative about neoconservatives. Neocons hide behind "conservative" but they are in fact Jacobins.

Jacobins were the 18th century French revolutionaries whose intention to remake Europe in revolutionary France’s image launched the Napoleonic Wars.

from "Neo-Jacobins Push For World War IV"

Assad goes to up armor

Syrian President Bashar Assad has decided to acquire offensive and defensive weapons in 2005 as part of an effort to repel any U.S. or Israeli attack on Syria.

Western intelligence sources said Assad plans to order at least $2 billion worth of Russian or Soviet-origin equipment during his meeting with President Vladimir Putin later this month. The sources said the Assad regime has assessed that U.S. forces based in Iraq would launch a major attack on Syria in 2005.

Syrian officials and government-aligned analysts acknowledge that Assad's visit was meant to acquire advanced Russian weapons to bolster deterrence against Israel and the United States, Middle East Newsline reported. They said they expect the two countries to press Moscow to suspend the SA-18 and other arms deals approved by Putin.

"He is clearly frightened of either an American or Israeli attack or a coup attempt by Washington," a Western intelligence analyst said. "Already, his regime is divided over how to respond to the U.S. threats."

"The chances of the United States invading Syria these days are extremely low," a Western intelligence source said. "But Assad doesn't believe that."

The sources said Assad has acquired funding commitments from Iran and Saudi Arabia to facilitate the Russian arms deal. They said Assad planned to demand immediate transfers of such systems as the SA-18 surface-to-air missile, Kornet-E anti-tank weapon and a Russian upgrade of Syrian artillery.

(Jan 16,2005) U.S. warns Syria about letting weapons out here and the diplomatic squabble here.

Kornet system:




Update: SA-18

Nicholas Eberstadt on "Kim's Nuclear Winter"

If you haven't read much about the latest North Korean nuke flap, a good place to start is with Nicholas Eberstadt: here.

North Korea has borne exactly no costs for what is ostensibly an extraordinarily destabilizing nuclear transgression. Quite the contrary: As the alarming intelligence about the Libya-North Korean connection percolated through Seoul, the South Korean government responded with a new outpouring of concessions and blandishments for the North Korean regime. Over the past few weeks, in fact, Seoul has formally declared that North Korea is no longer the "main enemy" in South Korean defense policy, and has acted to discourage North Korean refugees from trying to go South.

No less significant is Seoul's newly revised position on nuclear aid for Pyongyang. Raising the ante and lowering the bar, Seoul now promises to give "large scale economic support" as soon as the North even "starts to give up its nuclear program." Interestingly enough, less than two weeks after the South unveiled this generous new plan, the North officially declared its status as a nuclear power.

We in the outside world can only speculate about the timing of North Korea's self-proclaimed entry into the nuclear-weapons club. As we reflect on the sorry record of events that has led us to this juncture, however, a most worrisome possibility is that the North Korean state has actually been learning from its interactions with the United States and the rest of the world.

To date, an ever more menacing North Korean nuclear program has in practice encountered only token resistance from the United States and others, despite the obvious and increasing threats that program poses to national interests in many countries. Each new round of North Korean nuclear provocations has generated clear-cut benefits for the North Korean state, rather than incontrovertible costs. It will be very unpleasant--and very expensive--to un-teach Pyongyang the lessons of the past two and a half years.

More on the War with Iran (and an aside on Saudi Arabia)

Roger L. Simon calls for Referendum in Iran - A Proposal for Bloggers:

I think the blogosphere should devote itself to this, make the call for a democratic referendum in Iran one of our top priorities. We have been accused of late (falsely, I believe) of being a destructive force, of tearing things down like a mob. Surely, the call for a referendum in Iran is not that. It is the promotion of democracy at its purest. Bloggers on all sides of our political spectrum should be able to get behind that. I'm in.

However much I might support the idea of a referendum, I'm afraid my thoughts remain below like those of a commentor at Mr. Simon's blog:

More seriously, I cannot imagine mullahs ever agreeing to such referendum – why should they? What is in it for them? Tyrants are not interested in hearing the voice of the people. In any case, since they control the ballot box they also control the outcome of the referendum, presence of Havel and Walesa notwithstanding. Also, there are ways to make sure that people will vote the way you want them to vote: international monitors will be gone in short time, but people who go to the voting booths have to continue with their lives: jobs, health, future of children may be at stake. I think that a lot of good people in the West underestimate the power of “persuasion” that tyrants hold over the civilian populations: unless driven to utter desperation people just want to live, so they can go a long way submitting to the will of the tyrants. No matter how much they may yearn for freedom in their hearts.

I'm afraid the freedom seeking people of Iran will not overthrow their tyrants with any more ease than any peoples have ever done. It's not a referendum that will be needed, but that other "r" word - revolution. In the meantime, War with Iran continues in Iraq, Afghanistan and ---Syria.

(an aside on Saudi Arabia - I wonder if those princes are smarter than we know when they let their young purist firebrands rush off to be killed by the Americans in places like Fallujah? Who will be left in Saudi Arabia to lead the assault on the princes themselves- if it comes to that?)

To Keep Our Honor Clean...

Neptunis Lex in Court Martial has an excellent post on the pending court martial of Marine Lieutenant Pantano in which he argues, correctly in my view, that it is important to let the system work in seeking the truth and that those of us on the outside looking in should be careful about a "rush to judgment" of either innnocence or guilt based on what are, even now, initial and partial (in every sense) reports.

In times where seemingly every election and court decision is challenged on some basis or another, we still need to keep the faith the system will be fair. Others are watching our example. This is no place to make an exception.

Hat tip: Mudville Gazette

Sunnis - Let's try a little of that democracy stuff, too.

Captain's Quarters has excerpts of The Guardian article on a change of minds occurring in the Iraqi Sunni community: (link):

"The British newspaper The Guardian reported earlier today that the Sunni hardliners who called for a boycott of the January elections have now admitted the move was a mistake. Rory Carroll confirms that Sunni leaders now want to support the new democratic processes and hope that the new government will reach out to them as a result..."

Shia and Sunni getting together? Amazing.

U.S. Withdraws Ambassador From Syria

Associated Press reports U.S. Withdraws Ambassador From Syria.

The United States pulled its ambassador from Syria on Tuesday, expressing "profound outrage" over the assassination of a Lebanese leader who had protested Syrian influence in his country. Washington stopped short of directly accusing Syria of carrying out the murder.

What's that ticking sound?

The start of a timer running on Assad.

Update: Diplomatic meaning revealed at News Sisyphus

We trust that the patience of President Bush is running to an end. No other act, except maybe for strikes on Iran, would signal our seriousness at changing the chess board in the Middle East than military strikes aimed at Syria's command and control infrastructure. The illusion of Syrian invulnerability must be broken if Syria is ever to have incentive to change its ways.

Syria wages war more-or-less openly on the U.S. in Iraq. Syria provides refuge for terrorists and terrorist organizations. Syria is a Ba'athist dictatorship that allows no dissent and no liberty. Syria is a brutal occupying power that has destroyed the sovereignty of Lebanon. Syria's unreasonable stance on Israel has ruined hopes for peace in the region for decades.

Syria has been bucking for full Axis of Evil status for some time now. What we may be witnessing are the first steps of its promotion to full membership.

Not Ready for Democracy?

Neophyte Pundit, in the post Iraqi Prime Minister: Forming Alliances challenges the skeptics about Iraq to face up to a little reality.

What empire builder goes in and calls for elections and then lets the country create a government?

Ask the Germans, Japanese, Philippines... and lots of others.

North Korea zone: Rally Around the Bomb

North Korea zone: Rally Around the Bomb sets out the complete DPRK statement in all its glory.

Government by goofball has no need to use internally consistent logic.

Enjoy the read.

Syria gets warning- keep weapons in Syria or else

DEBKAfile says that Syria has acquired numbers of Kornet AT-14 anti-tank missiles and has also been warned by the U.S. that none should appear in Iraq or Syria may pay a price.

Syria had better make sure that none of the Kornet AT-14 anti-tank missiles which it recently purchased in large quantities from East Europe turn up in Iraq. US intelligence has recorded their serial numbers to identify their source. DEBKAfile’s military sources add: Because he cannot afford to buy advanced fighter planes and tanks, Assad purchased massive quantities of the “third generation” Kornet AT-14 anti-tank weapons.

Just in case any are found in Iraq, General Casey, commander of US forces in Iraq has already received orders from the commander-in-chief in the White House to pursue military action inside Syria according to his best military judgment.

...[this] therefore incorporates a tangible threat. The American general has the authority to launch military action against Syria as he sees fit and without delay if Damascus continues to meddle in Iraq’s affairs.

Unlike the safe havens provided to the North Vietnamese in Laos and Cambodia for so many years during the Vietnam War, the U.S. and Iraq probably will (and with justification) pursue weapon suppliers to the "insurgents" in Iraq. Syria is very much in danger of putting itself into play. Assad is treading a pretty narrow path.

Is North Korea lying -again?

The Marmot's Hole raises an interesting point - why trust North Korea when it says it has nukes after knowing that it lies about so much else? Read it here.

Hmmm. Well, because we have to go with the worst case possibility. We have to assume they are telling the truth. They have left us no choice.

US military intelligence issues pessimistic report

Regardless of the topic of the story, you can almost always report US military intelligence issue pessimistic report. Why?

It has always seemed to me that intel folks are trained to be pessimists. The problems caused by painting a "rosy scenerio" in an intel report are far worse than those caused by "over warning." As a result, intel tends to be overly cautious -er- realistic. It's a factor that I suppose a commander has to add to the equation when assessing a situation based on intel reports.

Also, it occurs to me that a smart intel officer is a little like the person who writes horoscopes. Keep it general enough and some part of it may come true for someone.

What brought all this to mind was the recent release of the Richard Clarke memo to National Security Director Rice that was featured so prominently in the 9/11 hearings which can be downloaded and read in pdf formhere. What does it say? Even Clarke seems confused:

Two days after Rice's March 22 op-ed, Clarke told the 9/11 Commission, "there's a lot of debate about whether it's a plan or a strategy or a series of options -- but all of the things we recommended back in January were those things on the table in September. They were done. They were done after September 11th. They were all done. I didn't really understand why they couldn't have been done in February."

Seems like a great intel job when no matter which way things go you can either claim credit or shift the blame. Reminds me of another intel report in American history - the one issued right before Pearl Harbor

It was clear, of course, that once disaster struck Pearl Harbor, there would be demands for accountability. Washington seemed to artfully take this into account by sending an ambiguous "war warning" to Kimmel, and a similar one to Short, on November 27th. This has been used for years by Washington apologists to allege that the commanders should have been ready for the Japanese.

Indeed, the message began conspicuously: "This dispatch is to be considered a war warning." But it went on to state: "The number and equipment of Japanese troops and the organizations of naval task forces indicates an amphibious expedition against the Philippines, Thai or Kra Peninsula, or possibly Borneo." None of these areas were closer than 5,000 miles to Hawaii! No threat to Pearl Harbor was hinted at. It ended with the words: "Continental districts, Guam, Samoa take measures against sabotage." The message further stated that "measures should be carried out so as not repeat not to alarm civil population." Both commanders reported the actions taken to Washington. Short followed through with sabotage precautions, bunching his planes together (which hinders saboteurs but makes ideal targets for bombers), and Kimmel stepped up air surveillance and sub searches. If their response to the "war warning" was insufficient, Washington said nothing. The next day, a follow-up message from Marshall’s adjutant general to Short warned only: "Initiate forthwith all additional measures necessary to provide for protection of your establishments, property, and equipment against sabotage, protection of your personnel against subversive propaganda and protection of all activities against espionage."

Of course, with the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, we know that Admiral Kimmel could have done many things if he had been able to figure out what the "war warning" actually meant.

I suppose it is too much to ask, in light of the "cry wolf" problem, that a report read: "THESE PEOPLE WANT TO KILL US BY FLYING AIRPLANES INTO THE WORLD TRADE CENTER." But at least I can understand it.

Transformation and the Army

Intel Dump has a nice post on some radical changes in store for the U.S. Army as it adjusts to the current world instead of the world that used to be:

More than 100,000 Soldiers will move from "Cold War" jobs to positions such as military police and civil affairs as part of Army Transformation, Sgt. Maj. of the Army Kenneth Preston said.

* * *
"We have a lot of troops in `Cold War' jobs," Preston said. "I call these `high density low demand' fields. The Army is going to rebalance those people to 'high demand low density' fields like military police and civil affairs. Somewhere between 100,000 to 115,000 Soldiers will transform to new positions."

Seems pretty smart to me and will ease the burden on the reserves and guard, where many of those "high demand low density" fields were placed during the Cold War.

Good on the Army.

Rangel waxes stupid

The Washington Times says Congressman Rangel belittles 'success' of Iraq vote .

Here's a gem:

Mr. Rangel, who mentioned his Korean War service in yesterday's appearance, responded that Americans "don't want their children to die for other people's freedom."

Tell that to the ghosts of the Civil War vets- who fought to free slaves and to theWWII vets and the other Korean War vets and the Vietnam vets and the Desert Storm vets and the new vets from Afghanistan and Iraq. Meet the Presstranscript.

Rangel also waxed stupid on the social security crisis, accusing the President of mistating the "crisis."

REP. RANGEL:  What a question.  What president's plan?  The president has not presented us a plan.  He talks about cutting benefits.  He talks about taking away the guaranteed benefit and substitute it with the gamble on Wall Street. If the president would give us a plan, there's no question in my mind I could sit down with Charlie Grassley, some Republicans on the Ways and Means Committee, and say, "Mr. President, this is right and this is wrong."

But why should the Democrats, when there is no crisis, and I think the president is backing off of that, when the president is talking about cutting up the taxes by over a trillion dollars, not putting the budget figures for the war in there?  ...

(italics mine)

What was interesting was his reaction here:

MR. RUSSERT:  Charles Rangel, President Bill Clinton, a man that you supported very, very vigorously said this in 1998:  "The looming fiscal crisis in Social Security ... if nothing is done, by 2029 there will be a deficit in the Social Security trust fund which will require ... either a huge tax increase in the payroll tax, or just about a 25 percent cut in Social Security benefits." That's Bill Clinton.

REP. RANGEL:  And that's honesty.  You...

Well, I wouldn't count on him to recognize honesty if it hit him on the nose. He is in the running for an EagleSpeak Dodo award.

I can see the future

Powerline reports Steve Hayward'svision of Ward Churchill:

Steve makes three observations and closes with a prediction: "Whether this guy is fired or not, he is going to be a leading Left celebrity for the next few years. Watch for book contracts, appearances with Michael Moore, TV shows, T-shirts, etc. But all the while don’t ever forget how American represses dissent."

To which I add my "I told you so"

Heard excerpts of his speech on the radio. Full leftist rant. My prediction: definite movie/book deal pending. Watch for the announcement.

My vision was from 2/9/05. Hayward's from 2/13/05.

Wow, I can see the future. New predictions every day...keep tuned.

Tom Friedman goes green

In his NY Times column of 2/13/05, Thomas Friedman goes green in arguing that we are failing to control the mullahs of Iran by allowing our energy demands to provide more cash to them from the sale of oil.

While I greatly admire much of his work, he doesn't seem firmly grounded in economics - such that the expense of developing alternatives to oil are, in and themselves, quite high and that other nations are waiting in the wings to absorb any excess in oil supply caused by a decrease in the U.S. demand (and initially they will pay less). In fact, if we raise the cost of our energy, we can actually become less competitive with countries who don't make the same switch at the same time we do.

In short, nice fantasy, Mr. Friedman. But you won't win the reality cigar.