VertRep
Sunday, May 10, 2020
Saturday, May 09, 2020
Saturday Is Old Radio Day: "To Have and Have Not" Bogart and Bacall (1946)
Friday, May 08, 2020
U.S. Navy Office of Naval Intelligence Worldwide Threat to Shipping (WTS) for 9 April -6 Mayl 2020 and HORN OF AFRICA/GULF OF GUINEA/SOUTHEAST ASIA Weekly Piracy Update for 30 April - 6 May 2020
U.S. Navy Office of Naval I... by lawofsea on Scribd
U.S. Navy Office of Naval I... by lawofsea on Scribd
Friday Film: "Rumors" Private SNAFU
Faster than a speeding bullet, stronger than a locomotive, harder to kill than COVID-19 - rumors and half truths on ships and in the barracks . . .
Thursday, May 07, 2020
Wednesday, May 06, 2020
Crimes Against Merchant Shipping and Sailors including Gulf of Guinea Kidnappings and More
At least 16 sailors have been abducted by pirates in the Gulf of Guinea. According to reports from international maritime websites, three ships were attacked by pirates May 1-4 off the coasts of Nigeria and Gabon within the borders of the gulf. At the beginning of May, pirates took control of one of the Panama-flagged oil-laden ships off the coast of Nigeria with a speedboat and kidnapped 10 crew members. Other attacks were made on fishing boats.More reports from the ICC IMB Piracy Reporting Centre Live Piracy Reports here:
Attack Number: Narrations:And piracy maps from the ICC IMB Piracy Reporting Centre here:
069-20 02.05.2020: 0315-0400 UTC: Posn: 02:46.2S - 080:14.7W, Around 4nm South of Posorja, Ecuador.
Seven armed persons in a skiff chased and fired upon a container vessel underway. Alarm raised, crew mustered, and the search light directed towards the skiff. Coast Guard onboard the vessel fired four warning shots resulting in the skiff moving away. Crew and vessel safe.
***
068-20 03.05.2020: 1950 UTC: Posn: 01:36.7N – 104:52.8E, Around 29nm NE of Pulau Bintan, Indonesia.
Four robbers in a wooden boat, armed with knives, came alongside an anchored product tanker. Two of the robbers boarded the tanker using a hook attached with a rope. Duty AB on routine rounds encountered the robbers and immediately informed the bridge. Alarm raised, PA announcement made and crew mustered. The robbers took the AB’s UHF radio by force and escaped. A search was made throughout the tanker. Padlocks to four storerooms were found broken but nothing reported stolen.
***
067-20 30.04.2020: Around 1845 UTC: Posn: 03:29.99N – 003:50.17E, Around 127nm SW of Bayelsa, Nigeria.
Armed pirates in a skiff attacked and boarded a product tanker underway. They kidnapped 10 crew and escaped. The Owners of the tanker informed the IMB Piracy Reporting Centre who then liaised with relevant regional and international authorities in the region and requested assistance to be sent to the vessel, which now had only four crew who were unable to navigate the vessel to a safe port. A Nigerian Navy Security Vessel was dispatched and provided the necessary assistance to the tanker. The tanker was then assistance to a safe anchorage by a vessel from the same company in the vicinity.
***
066-20 29.04.2020: 2115 UTC: Posn: 01:16.7N – 104:16.9E, Singapore Strait
Duty crew in the engine room noticed three unauthorised persons entering the engine room. The duty crew shouted at the persons who escaped. Alarm raised, crew mustered, and Singapore VTIS notified. The Singapore Police boarded the vessel for inspection. On searching the vessel, nothing was reported stolen.
***
065-20 20.03.2020: 0130 - 0530 UTC: Posn: Pointe Noire Anchorage, Congo.
Unnoticed, a robber boarded an anchored container vessel via the anchor chain, stole ship’s properties and escaped. Incident reported to the local port control.
***
064-20 26.03.2020: 0820 UTC: Posn: 05:59.8N – 002:21.2E: Around 21nm SSW of Cotonou, Benin.
Around five persons in a speed boat approached a product tanker underway. PA announcement was made, accommodation locked down and all non-essential crew mustered in the citadel. Master increased speed and commenced evasive manoeuvres, resulting in the pirates aborting the approach and moving away. Vessel and crew safe.
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| 2020 to date |
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| Gulf of Guinea to date |
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| Strait of Malacca and Singapore Strait to date |
Most of the reported incidents are simple boardings to steal loose items - but the Gulf of Guinea kidnapping schemes are much more serious and dangerous.
Tuesday, May 05, 2020
AEI Webinar — Disinformation pandemic: Russian & Chinese info ops in the COVID-19 era
Watched this live this morning, raises some really interesting issues about the attempted (and actual) efforts by the Chinese Communist Party and the Putin government to control the narrative concerning COVID-19 through disinformation campaigns and offers up some thoughts on how the U.S. media companies could do a service by revealing the links of this "info" by identifying sources, instead of just republishing the outright falsehoods. And more.
Today's Pandemic Song "James Bond Theme" - Harvard Boomwhackers
Having fun with music. People are amazing!
Finding the Delta - Given an expectation that there are always going to be a certain number of deaths in any given month, how much has COVID-19 increased that number?
If I ask "Given an expectation that there are always going to be a certain number of deaths in any given month, how much has COVID-19 increased that number?, I am looking for the difference (the"delta") between the predicted number of deaths in a given month and any any increase over that prediction that can be attributed to COVID-19. The National Vital Statistics System, a part of the CDC, actually prepares such a report that displays that information, the Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). In the the notes concerning this report this one explains the term "expected deaths" as used in the table:
This is represented graphically:
In either the chart or the graph, you'll note that April 2020 was the month in which "excess deaths" above expected levels took off.
If you take a look at the numbers for some key states, you will see where that spike came from: New York City had a death rate 215% higher than the expected. As a state, New York was 118% higher. New Jersey was 129%, a couple of other states were over a percentage or 2 above "expected" - some were much lower.
Some the lower numbers are undoubtedly due to the lag in reporting. Or as set out on the linked page:
Of course, these numbers are "provisional" and will be adjusted up and down as more data is received. For example, the state chart shows North Carolina with no COVID-19 deaths, the NC government is reporting 420 deaths from COVID-19 as of 4 May 2020. Be aware of GIGO.
Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019.Click on the images to enlarge them.
In either the chart or the graph, you'll note that April 2020 was the month in which "excess deaths" above expected levels took off.
If you take a look at the numbers for some key states, you will see where that spike came from: New York City had a death rate 215% higher than the expected. As a state, New York was 118% higher. New Jersey was 129%, a couple of other states were over a percentage or 2 above "expected" - some were much lower.
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| New York City |
New York State
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| New Jersey |
Some the lower numbers are undoubtedly due to the lag in reporting. Or as set out on the linked page:
NOTE: Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. The United States population, based on 2018 postcensal estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, is 327,167,434.What's the lesson? We are capturing the increases in deaths above those that would be normally expected. Overall, the increases in most states would not appear to be that great except for New York City and, thus, New York State, and, perhaps, New Jersey.
*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.
Of course, these numbers are "provisional" and will be adjusted up and down as more data is received. For example, the state chart shows North Carolina with no COVID-19 deaths, the NC government is reporting 420 deaths from COVID-19 as of 4 May 2020. Be aware of GIGO.
Monday, May 04, 2020
Sunday, May 03, 2020
Today's Pandemic Song: "See What Tomorrow Brings" Peter, Paul, and Mary
Update: The reason for putting this song up is that portion of the chorus
Lie down Betty, see what tomorrow brings
Lie down Betty, see what tomorrow brings
May bring you sunshine, may bring you diamond rings
The song is titled "Betty and Dupree," a version of which Sonny Terry & Brownie McGhee performed in classic blues style:
At any rate, it was that chorus fragment that popped into my head this morning and made me decide to put this song up.
Saturday, May 02, 2020
Today's Pandemic Song: Chariots of Fire Theme
There was a time, back when I was doing lots of 5k, 10K and longer runs, this was the most common song played at the finish of those fun runs.
Saturday Is Old Radio Day - "Island of Death" Inner Sanctum (1941)
Stunning news flash at the beginning set the time frame.
On Midrats 3 March 20 - Episode 539: COVID-19 and the defense budget with Todd Harrison
Please join us at 5pm EST on 3 March 2020 for Midrats Episode 539: COVID-19 and the defense budget with Todd Harrison
If you can't catch the show live and you use Apple Podcasts, you can pick up the episode and others and add Midrats to your podcast list simply by clicking the button at the main show page - or you can just click here. Or on Spreaker. The show also is reportedly on Spotify.If it hasn't hit you yet, it will soon. Everyone's assumptions about what the defense budget will look like - what it will buy and who gets what part of the pie - are gone.
The larger impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is unknown, but we do know this; at no time has so much debt been piled so high on top of an incredible spike in unemployment and economic collapse - in so little time - in the lifetime of any living American.
What can we expect?
Our guest for the full hour this Sunday from 5-6pm Eastern to discuss this and more will be Todd Harrison, the director of Defense Budget Analysis and the director of the Aerospace Security Project at CSIS.
As a senior fellow in the International Security Program, he leads the Center’s efforts to provide in-depth, nonpartisan research and analysis of defense funding, space security, and air power issues. He has authored publications on trends in the overall defense budget, military space systems, civil space exploration, defense acquisitions, military compensation, military readiness, nuclear forces, and the cost of overseas military operations.
Mr. Harrison joined CSIS from the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, where he was a senior fellow for defense budget studies. He previously worked at Booz Allen Hamilton where he consulted for the U.S. Air Force on satellite communications systems and supported a variety of other clients evaluating the performance of acquisition programs. Prior to Booz Allen, he worked for a small startup (AeroAstro Inc.) developing advanced space technologies and as a management consultant at Diamond Cluster International. Mr. Harrison served as a captain in the U.S. Air Force Reserves. He is a graduate of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology with both a B.S. and an M.S. in aeronautics and astronautics.
Friday, May 01, 2020
Friday Film: "Ships of the U.S. Navy" (1942)
The Navy has global responsibilities because our country is, in reality, virtually an island nation, tied to the rest of the world by free and open sea lines of trade. We must never forget that.
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