U.S. Navy's Office of Naval Intelligence Worldwide Threat to Shipping (WTS) Report 9 February - 9 March 2016

From ONI:

U.S. Navy's Office of Naval Intelligence Worldwide Threat to Shipping (WTS) Report 9 February - 9 Mar 2016

For those of you interested in the smuggling of migrants, an interesting blog from a law professor at the University of Southern California, Migrants at Sea, one post of which links to this NATO news release about an expansion of it counter-migrant program in the Mediterranean/Aegean from international waters into territorial waters of NATO members Greece and Turkey:

NATO took swift decisions to deploy ships to the Aegean Sea to support our Allies Greece and Turkey, as well as the EU's border agency FRONTEX, in their efforts to tackle the migrant and refugee crisis. NATO ships are already collecting information and conducting monitoring in the Aegean Sea. Their activity will now be expanded to take place also in territorial waters.
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the purpose of NATO's deployment is not to stop or push back migrant boats, but to help our Allies Greece and Turkey, as well as the European Union, in their efforts to tackle human trafficking and the criminal networks that are fueling this crisis.

Yes, criminals committing crimes at sea.

As the good professor at Migrants at Sea notes:

NATO’s characterisation of its operation seems to be an attempt to draw a distinction between a push-back practice where any migrant boat, regardless of whether it is in need of rescue, would be intercepted and pushed back and a search and rescue operation providing assistance to migrant boats in need of rescue. This is meaningless distinction given the current situation in the Aegean where every migrant boat is in need of assistance or rescue.

NATO video on their efforts in the Aegean:

There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch: Greek Edition

TANSTAAFL strikes Greece.

As Prime Minister Thatcher once said:

. . . Socialist governments traditionally do make a financial mess. They always run out of other people's money. It's quite a characteristic of them.

Or, as well stated here:

The Greeks held their breath and jumped off the precipice. The Greek debt crisis, and the outcome of a No vote in the referendum, is a perfect example of politics trumping economics.
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Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland masked their debts to keep the illusion of solvency until the 2008 economic crisis eventually exposed their economic juggling. Greece was the first to collapse in 2009, and the first failure of the euro zone experiment. Five years of remorseless austerity has done little for the Greek economy. The only growth has been the debt.

Greece has the GNP of the U.S. state of Connecticut with 3.5x the population. See here, here and here.

Some nice analysis at Forbes The Future Of The Greek Economy:

The view that “monetary sovereignty” independence could be used wisely does not take into account that the type of government that has driven Greece to the edge of the cliff is not the type of government that would enact the reforms Greece needs to grow, including better tax collection, better infrastructure and a better business climate.

and

As the economic health of Greece deteriorates, the need for new loans and harsher austerity measures increases. Greece cannot count on other nations to pay its debt through debt forgiveness. In 2012, other countries provided loans on attractive terms with below-market interest rates, extended maturities, deferral of interest payments, and rebates on interest. This is why the present value of Greece’s debt is actually a fraction of its face value.

So, does Putin of Russia think he sees a crack in the NATO alliance caused by the Greek need for money? See this Barron's article More Than Economics at Stake in Greek Crisis Unlike Argentina or Thailand, Greece is a key NATO member. Opening for Putin?:

One alternative is for Russia’s Vladimir Putin to toss Greece a lifeline. That could potentially extend his sphere of influence and push back against Europe as effectively as his incursion into Crimea. This, of course, is all speculation.

But Tsipras flew to Russia as recently in mid-June to confer with Putin. The Greek prime minister also has been an outspoken critic of the EU’s sanctions against Russia over the de facto annexation of eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Russian economy and the ruble have rebounded despite the sanctions since the price of crude oil, the nation’s crucial export, has stabilized around $60 a barrel. As a reflection, the Market Vectors Russia exchange-traded fund (ticker: RSX ) is up 44% from its lows earlier this year. Putin would seem far from debilitated on the economic front.

Even though a Russian gambit is a long-shot outcome of the Greek crisis, the inherent problems of the euro remain.

Nice warm-water ports you have there, Athens.

Wait, you mean a Russian bailout would come with a price? TANSTAAFL, what's that?

Italy and Malta Tussle Over Eastern Mediterranean Energy Search

As you may recall, Israel has a big offshore natural gas find in the Eastern Mediterranean as set out here, which has created a row with its neighbor, Lebanon (some suggest Iran's hand is involved in this). In addition, drilling off Cyprus has Turkey doing its own "exploration" under armed naval escort. Tension is up, ugly words are spoken. Billions of dollars are at stake.

See Saturn 5's coverage at Bosphorus Naval News here and the links therein for more on the Turkey and Cyprus issue.

Greece also is looking at issuing exploration permits in its offshore areas, and,
well, now, there are new sparring partners, as little Malta issues permits for offshore exploration and Italy jumps in claiming rights to some of the same undersea zones. See here:

Interest in Mediterranean exploration has fostered great hopes but has also led to increased tensions in the region. US independent Noble Energy's large gas discoveries offshore Israel, have shed light on the potential of offshore acreage in the region. Investors are now looking to Cyprus, while Lebanon is planning its first offshore licensing round in 2012. On October 6, Greece also announced that it will put three blocks in the Adriatic on offer for exploration in 2012. Previously, Greece's development minister, Kostis Hatzidakis, said that the government had plans to start exploration for oil in the Aegean Sea.

However, this has proved to be a poisoned chalice with regard to diplomatic ties in the region. Turkey's relationship with Israel has disintegrated and it has opposed Noble's drilling plans off Cyprus, as it has yet to formally agree its maritime borders with the island-state. It has also threatened to place military vessels in the Mediterranean Sea to impede what it considers to be provocative exploration. In addition, the long feud between Greece and Turkey over maritime borders could make the situation worse, particularly in terms of exploration in the Aegean. Lebanon and Israel have similarly yet to agree on a maritime border.

In the case of Italy, tensions with Malta have risen following the island's publication of a tender for oil exploration in the Ionian Sea - in areas claimed by Italy. Meanwhile, Malta is also in dispute with Libya over its southern maritime borders. Furthermore, environmental concerns over a possible oil spill in the Mediterranean's closed sea could also hamper upstream activity in the region.

With recent discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean and further ongoing exploration already taking place offshore Italy, Albania, Croatia, Montenegro (and possibly Greece in the near future), we believe that exploration on Italy's side of the Ionian Sea is likely to attract significant interest. Nevertheless, this raises political tensions and a great deal of diplomacy will be required if serious disputes are to be resolved or avoided.

Oh, Libya, too.

Nice turf war you got there, fellas.

There's an element of The Treasure of the Sierra Madre in all this. Mixed in with international threats, of course.

Greed kills.

Somali Pirates Capture Small Tanker Off Kenya

Pirates seize LPG tanker off Kenya:

On the morning of 24 October, the MV YORK, a Singapore-flagged tanker, was confirmed pirated in the Somali Basin.

The MV YORK had recently left Mombasa on route to the Seychelles. The vessel was attacked on 23 October by two skiffs, approximately 50 nautical miles East from Mombasa.

The Turkish warship GAZIANTEP, operating under the Combined Maritime Forces (Task Force 151) launched her helicopter to investigate. The helicopter was able to observe pirates with weapons on board the vessel.

Initially the MV YORK was drifting but then began moving at 10 knots this morning. In a separate but seemingly linked incident the fishing vessel GOLDEN WAVE, pirated on 9 October 2010, was seen in the vicinity of the MV YORK.

The MV YORK, deadweight 5,076 tons, has a crew of 17, of which one is German (Master), two are Ukrainians and 14 Filipinos.

Including the MV YORK, Somali pirates are currently holding 19 vessels with 428 hostages.

Somali Pirates: Greek Ship Taken

BBC report:

Pirates have seized a Greek-owned ship with 23 people on board in the Gulf of Aden, the ship's managers say.

The Eleni P, which is managed by Eurobulk, was carrying a cargo of iron ore from the Black Sea to China.

Eurobulk's Marcos Vassilikos told the BBC that pirates fired shots when they took the ship, but that the crew were not thought to have been injured.

Ship info here.

Somali Pirates: The Japanese-Greek Coalition Strikes

Reported by MSC(HOA) here:

EUNAVFOR Greek warship ELLI stops pirate skiff in its tracks - Successful cooperation with Japanese Task Force

04/05/2010 17.19 UTC

This morning 4 May, a Super Auk 12 helicopter from the Japanese Task Force reported a suspicious skiff with seven persons on board just outside the International Recommended Transit Corridor (IRTC) approximately 50 miles south of Al Mukalla, Yemen.

The Japanese Task Force was escorting a Convoy through the IRTC when it detected a suspicious skiff and informed the EU NAVFOR Greek warship HS ELLI of its position. HS ELLI closed the skiff which, despite warning shots from ELLI, refused to stop. The skiff conducted evading manoeuvres and tried to flee so ELLI used her main gun which had the effect of stopping the skiff and the persons on board surrendered. During the chase, the skiff’s crew were seen to throw material over board. Personnel from ELLI have now boarded the skiff and after a final investigation, the skiff was released.

This unprecedented cooperation between coalition forces strengthens the anti piracy forces ability to combat piracy.

I have no idea what a "Super AUK 12" helicopter is. My understanding is that the JMSDF flies SH-60 helicopters.

Somali Pirates: Tanker repels pirate attack

Tanker repels pirate attack:

Greek authorities say the crew of a Greek tanker carrying oil to China have successfully fought off a pirate attack in the Arabian Sea.

A coast guard statement says the Greek-flagged Sikinos, with a crew of 24, came under automatic gunfire from pirates 800km south-east of Oman on Tuesday. It says the crew fired flares and used high-pressure hoses to repel the attack.

The coast guard said the 16 Filipino and eight Greek seamen on board were unhurt, and the vessel was continuing its course for China.

The Sikinos had set off from Sudan, with a shipment of oil.