Somali Pirates: Weather Impact

In last week's Weekly Piracy Assessment, the NATO Shipping Center reported that the on-coming monsoon season in the Indian Ocean will impact piracy:

The NE monsoon has begun but tempered by a low pressure area in the region. As a result it is not likely to impede piracy activity in the near term. The monsoon is expected to go into full swing over the next couple weeks and, as weather deteriorates, piracy activity is likely to be hindered.

The U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence Piracy Analysis and Warning Weekly (PAWW) (pdf) expands the same point:

4. DECEMBER 08 – DECEMBER 14
A. (U) GULF OF ADEN: Moderate winds and light seas (ENE 15 – 20, 2 – 4 feet) exist in the GOA and will continue through the next 72 hours. EXTENDED FORECAST: Expect ENE winds to continue through forecast period. A modest increase in sea heights will occur in the western half of the Gulf of Aden as 3 – 5 foot seas provide moderate impacts to small boat operations by 11 Dec.
B. (U) SOMALI COAST: Continued NE winds over the Somali Basin have increased sea heights from Socotra Island southwest to the Kenyan border. Expect high winds and seas (NE 20 – 25, 6 – 8 feet) to affect small boat operations through the next 72 hours. EXTENDED FORECAST: Winds and seas will remain prominent impacts to the area through 14 Dec as the NE monsoon fully sets in over the region.
C. (U) NORTH ARABIAN SEA: Light to moderate winds and seas (NE 12 – 16, 2 – 4 feet) in the North Arabian Sea will continue through the next 72 hours. EXTENDED FORECAST: A large portion of the NAS will continue to experience little to no impacts through 14 Dec. Expect a region just south of the Gulf of Oman to show increased sea heights (4 – 6 feet) by 13 Dec.
D. (U) INDIAN OCEAN: Residual seas from the Somali Basin will provide moderate impacts (3 – 5 feet) to the Kenyan and Tanzanian waters, while winds in the region vary in direction and remain mainly below 10 knots through the next 72 hours. Expect light winds and seas (ENE 8 – 12, 1 – 3 feet) in the sheltered waters of the Mozambique Channel through 11 Dec. EXTENDED FORECAST: Variable light winds and residual seas from the Somali Basin will continue to provide the only impacts to the Kenyan and Tanzanian waters through 14 Dec. Expect an increase in winds through the Mozambique Channel by 12 Dec to slowly increase seas in the southern portion. Moderate winds and seas (N 15 – 20, 3 – 5 feet) will affect the region by 13 Dec.

The PAWW weather forecast map suggests a potential decline in pirate activity due to the weather. See the map above.

But you can also look over the right, where the WeatherOnline charts appear constantly updating winds in the Somali pirate operating areas. Here's the 13 Dec 2011 winds:

Arabian Sea winds

Gulf of Aden Winds

Lots of 15+ knot winds out there except relatively near shore . . .

Weather takes its toll on the pirates, as reported by SomaliaReport "Six Pirate Groups, Six Boats Missing at Sea":

The number of pirate attacks off the Somali coast has declined considerably in recent weeks due to strong winds and storms with pirates reporting that at least six of their groups and six of their boats were lost at sea.

Before merchant ships get too cocky, remember that there have been plenty of attacks during the monsoon seasons over the years and the winds are much lower near the entrance to the Red Sea.

The NATO Shipping Center also has an updated "Pirate Action Group" map, putting PAGs in a couple of areas near lower reported winds:

MARLO Newsletter (25 June 09)

From the Maritime Liaison Office in Bahrain (where the mission is "liaison between the Coalition Maritime Forces in Bahrain and the commercial shipping industry") comes forth their June 25, 2009 MARLO Newsletter, available here (except, as of this morning, the June newsletter is not yet posted. You can get on the MARLO email list and they'll send it to you via email).

Of note:

Southwest Monsoon and Somali Piracy
The annual Southwest (SW) Monsoon generally occurs from the end of May to the beginning of September over the western Indian Ocean. In the past, the monsoon has led to a decrease in piracy activity along the east coast of Africa. However, in light of the adaptive nature of recent Somali piracy attacks, a break in pirate activity should not be assumed.

Still, commercial vessels should take advantage of the protection offered by monsoon conditions along much of the east coast of Africa, where wind speeds are SW Force 4 or above. It is believed that the likelihood of a successful piracy attack in these weather conditions is low, though attacks cannot be discounted and ships should continue to be vigilant and observe industry best
management practice. Routing through areas where the wind speeds remain
above Force 4 is likely to offer protection from successful piracy attacks.

For more information, please see the June 2009 Special Maritime Advisory
located at http://www.cusnc.navy.mil/marlo/Guidance/guidance.htm

The link set out in the newsletter is not a good one, by the way.

UPDATE: Speaking the weather, a couple of quick looks at the winds in the Gulf of Aden and off the east coast of Somalia (from here:

Somalia: Pirate Winds and Waves

All wind and wave maps from Weatheronline.co.uk. Click on them to enlarge.

Winds and waves picking up for most of the waters off Somalia, making small boat operations difficult. However, there are areas of the Gulf of Aden, undoubtedly well known to local fishermen, offering lower wave action, especially in the lee of islands or near the Bab-el-Mandeb entrance/exit from the Red Sea.

The number of pirate attacks is down as the monsoon winds have finally arrived, but mariners should still keep an eye out for pirates. The Somali pirates have proven very adept in changing their modus operandi and may have some new tricks for us.
Wind scale:

Weather for Fighting Pirates

From here, forecasts for winds and waves for the 20th of May 2009 in the Gulf of Aden, off East Somalia and by the Seychelles. Click to enlarge.







Wind and waves not looking good for pirate action off eastern Somalia or near the Seychelles. Winds increasing in Gulf of Aden, but waves still under/about 1 meter. Monsoon weather expected in about 10 days, with a subsequent decrease in piracy.

Weather and the Somali Pirates

Weather to cut Somali pirate attacks

"The sea is calm now, but it will be terrible to sail especially in the Indian Ocean by May," pirate Farah Hussein told Reuters by telephone. Pirates have made millions of dollars seizing ships and taking crews hostage. After a brief lull earlier this year, gunmen continued their onslaught.

"Once we go into June, the south west monsoons will come in and that affects the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea, and we may see a reduction in attacks," said Pottengal Mukundan, director of the International Maritime Bureau (IMB).

Weather analysts say the June-July-August season has the worst weather for pirates while December-January-February is less extreme, but still bad.

I wonder where they got the idea to look into the weather/pirate link?

Map is of the Seychelles vicinity from here.