Once Again, Chokepoints, SLOCs, the Importance of Navies

First off, what is a "chokepoint?" There is very nice definition by John Daly here:

Ever since men first put to sea, conflicts have swirled around narrow maritime passages known as choke points. A subset of the broader category of Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs), maritime choke points act as funnels drawing in shipping from surrounding seas. As critical pressure points in naval struggles for "command of the sea," every navy seeks to secure them while denying their use to the enemy.

Oh, those "Sea Lines of Communication?" Back in 2011, I tried to clarify:

Back in the beginning days of this blog, I had a couple of posts about "sea lanes" and their importance. For example, from 2005, there was a post cleverly titled "Sea Lanes". I wrote then:

I keep posting about sea lanes. What are these things? Sea lanes are trade routes - almost like highways in the sea, where due to geography, ocean going vessels follow certain paths to avoid islands, shallows and other impediments to their travel. They are also generally the most efficient routes to get from Point A to Point B - as close to straight line travel as a ship can accomplish given the number of obstacles in its path.

Since then, there have been hundreds of posts here in which I refer to either "sea lanes" or "sea lines of communication" (see, e.g. Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs)). There can be a difference between the two terms, since SLOC can have a military meaning that I have generally ignored here.

However, what is important to know about sea lanes or SLOCs is that they exist and that they are a major reason that nations interested in international commerce have navies - to keep the sea lanes open. In discussing maritime security, keeping sea lanes open is a major topic.

We hear a lot about how many things travel by sea. From crude oil to grain to large screen TVs to cars and much more, cheaper shipping has allowed the entire world to benefit from global product distribution (see here and here). Where do these products travel? Sea lanes. An excellent example of these sea lanes is shown on this Naval War College slide (which I have borrowed without shame):

There it is, a picture of world commerce. Those are not war ships wending their way across oceans, those are merchant ships moving the goods that make the world go. You might note that there are places where the traffic converges to pass through narrow areas. These are referred to as "chokepoints", "Chokepoints are narrow channels along widely used global sea routes . . ."

Large ships sail on rigid schedules, carrying parts from Japan to the U.S. or to Europe in such a reliable manner that warehouse costs are reduced by planning for "just in time" deliveries of products.

So, when there is a disruption in the smooth flow of goods, say from the recent earthquake in Japan, there are ripple effects that impact more than the Japanese part manufacturers.

A similar effect is caused by things that interfere with sea lanes. These might be something like a catastrophe that strikes a chokepoint like a closure of the Suez Canal.

Over 16 years ago,  I first discussed the importance of "chokepoints" on this blog.  During that period, we have seen the effects of pirates and nations interdicting ships headed to and from key chokepoints leading to and from the Indian Ocean, in the Straits of Malacca and Hormuz. 

After the recent ship grounding in the Suez Canal which is, after all,  both a very long "chokepoint" and a SLOC, some people seem to have finally taken note that there is a world-wide system of movement of trade goods and vital energy cargo that takes place on the oceans and seas of the world. 

If they had been paying attention, they could have referred to the U.S. Energy Information Agency and its World Oil Transit Chokepoints Analysis Brief from whence comes the below illustration:

 

All estimates in million barrels per day. Includes crude oil and petroleum liquids. Based on 2016 data.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

In 1996, the U.S. National Defense University published Chokepoints: Maritime Economic Concerns in Southeast Asia which I have added below. While the data contained therein is no longer valid, and probably hugely understated given the growth of the economies of the countries of Asia, the concerns expressed are not outdated, and, like the data, probably understated.

Strategic Chokepoints of So... by lawofsea

How do we keep these vital SLOCs and chokepoints open? We have navies and coast guards that patrol the seas to thwart pirates and sea robbers. We worry about the effects of local rebel or national forces who occupy territory adjacent to chokepoints who might do damage to ships as they transit them, as we see with the Houti rebels in Yemen or the forces of countries like Iran. Remember the attempted attack on a U.S. Navy destroyer in 2016?

U.S. Navy photo by Photographer's Mate 2nd Class Peter J. Carney 

A U.S. Navy guided missile destroyer was targeted on Sunday in a failed missile attack from territory in Yemen controlled by Iran-aligned Houthi rebels, a U.S. military spokesman told Reuters, saying neither of the two missiles hit the ship.

***

The attempted strike on the USS Mason, which was first reported by Reuters, came just a week after a United Arab Emirates vessel came under attack from Houthis and suggests growing risks to the U.S. military from Yemen’s conflict.

***

Last week’s attack on the UAE vessel also took place around the Bab al-Mandab strait, in what the UAE branded an “act of terrorism.”

In 2013, more than 3.4 million barrels of oil passed through the 20 km (12 mile)-wide Bab al-Mandab each day, the U.S. Energy Information Administration says.

It was unclear what actions the U.S. military might take, but Davis stressed a commitment to defend freedom of navigation and protect U.S. forces.

"Defend fredom of navigation." Exactly. And which is why we need a large and strong Navy.

On Midrats 13 September 2020 - Episode 558: Shipyards & the Maritime Industrial Base, with Maiya Clark

Please join us at 5pm EDT on 13 September 2020 for Midrats Episode 558: Shipyards & the Maritime Industrial Base, with Maiya Clark

Concerned with the ability of our maritime industrial base to not just build the navy the nation needs, but to help maintain it? Well, do we have the episode for you! Join us this Sunday at 5pm with out guest for the full hour, Maiya Clark, as we discuss the issues she raises in her recent work, U.S. Navy Shipyards Desperately Need Revitalization and a Rethink. Maiya 

Clark is a research assistant in The Heritage Foundation’s Center for National Defense, focusing on defense industrial base issues. Before joining the Center for National Defense team, she worked at Heritage as assistant to Dr. James Jay Carafano, Vice President of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy. She originally joined The Heritage Foundation in 2018 as a research and administrative assistant in the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom. Maiya holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in international relations with a minor in economics from the University of Southern California.

If you use Apple Podcasts, and miss the show live, you can pick up this episode and others and add Midrats to your podcast list simply by going here. Or on Spreaker. The show also is reportedly on Spotify.

Maritime Trade Routes Are Vital, But "90% of World's Goods" Are Not Transported By Sea

You can find this or something like it nearly everywhere shipping by sea is mentioned

Maritime transport is essential to the world’s economy as over 90% of the world’s trade is carried by sea and it is, by far, the most cost-effective way to move en masse goods and raw materials around the world.

Attempting to track down the source of that 90% figure is elsusive, as is trying to determine what that 90% covers. Is it in terms of "value" or "tonnage" or "volume" or some other quantity?

Now, as you might gather if you've visited here before, I am as pro-seaborne commerce as anyone, but . . .

Let's look at some common sense facts beginning with trade among neighboring states that share a border. Factoid from World Ocean Review:

With respect to the value of the goods, about 23 per cent of world trade is between countries with a common border. This percentage has remained fairly constant over recent decades. Between continents, however, it differs a great deal depending on their level of development. In Europe and North America the proportion is the highest at 25 to 35 per cent. This trade is predominantly transacted by road and rail. Cargo between countries without a common border is carried mainly by sea, although increasing quantities of manufactured goods are being forwarded by air. Growth rates for air freight are more than double those for shipping in recent years. Which mode of transport handles how much cargo depends on the (relative) transportation costs and the value-to-weight ratio of the goods – the higher the value per unit of weight, the less significant the cost of transportation. Punctuality and reliability are considered more important for valuable commodities.

Makes sense. For example, trade betwee the U.S. and Canada or Mexico does involve a lot of road and rail transport and includes pipelines, too. The EU and other countries have a lot of cross border trade. On the other hand, 90% might be a good number for countries like Great Britain or Australia, because they are islands without directly bordering states.

That 23% "common border" trade  would seem to cut the amount of "world trade"carried by ships down to 77%, wouldn't it? Well, no. Even between countries with a common border, there may be ocean shipping of some products - like between the U.S. and Mexico. See below.

Internal pipelines, river, rail and trucking also account for move of goods internally in the U.S. Some of which may distribute imported goods, but I seriously doubt that this statement from the Atlantic is accurate:

Almost 90 percent of everything we buy arrives via ship, writes Rose George in her actually mind-blowing new book Ninety Percent of Everything, published tomorrow, which covers her months-long adventure with the shipping industry — the biggest business that you know nothing about.

In addition to the fact that some of what is bought in the U.S.  is produced internally in the U.S. or in our adjoining North American countries, there is this information The Bureau of Transportation Statistics:

Marine Transportation System transports the products that American businesses and 
The residents use everyday. By value, vessels carry 53 and 38 percent of U.S. imports and exports, respectively (as shown in Figure 1)— the largest share of any mode.


Figure 1—U.S. Imports and Exports Vessel Value by Mode of Transportation, 2011

Percentages based upon millions of U.S. dollars

Figure 1:

So, by value, 53% of imports (2012 numbers) arive by ship and 47% by other means.

The stuff that arrives by ship would have to be pretty vital if it is to account for "90% of what we buy."

A couple of more figures:

And one more showing NAFTA cross border trade increases from April 2016 to April 2017:

So,what's it mean? To paraphrase a famous deposition quote, "It depends on what your definition of "world's trade" is."

Now, it might mean "international trade" defined here as:

The two main data items used in the concept of international trade are imports and exports.

Imports of goods measures the value of goods that enter the domestic territory of a country irrespective of their final destination.

Exports of goods similarly measures the value of goods which leave the domestic territory of a country, irrespective of whether they have been processed in the domestic territory or not.

Imports (and exports) of services reflect the value of services provided to residents of other countries (or received by residents of the domestic territory).

or perhaps this:

International trade is any legal exchange of goods and services between countries. When a business in one country exports goods or services to consumers in another country, it is called international trade. International trade also takes place when consumers in one country import goods and services from a foreign producer.

The first definition uses the word "value of goods."

Then there is this from the World Shipping Council:

The exchange of capital, goods and services across international borders is known as international trade and in many countries it represents a significant share of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP.) Liner ships transport approximately 60 percent of the value of seaborne trade or more than US $4 trillion worth of goods annually.

"Liner ships" are container ships, Roll-On/Roll-Off, car and truck carriers and break bulk ships. It does not include tankers. But tanker of all types are significant as noted here:

The single most significant type of cargo worldwide is crude oil, which alone accounts for roughly a quarter of all goods transported by sea.

In addition to crude oil you can assume that refined petroleum products and other liquids as well as natural gas in various forms (LNG, LPG) also account for a big chunk of shipping.

Add 60% for liner shipping and 25% for crude oil and you get 85% of the "value" of sea trade - or do you? What is the measure used in "a quarter of all goods transported by sea" when referring to crude oil? Volume? Value? Tonnage? Are we comparing apples to oranges?

So, after all that, what do we know?

Pretty sure that any one of the 90% figures referred to above is inaccurate - the number probably is somewhere around 70% at most.

Your calculations may vary, but in my view it is not necessary to hype the value of sea shipping but it is a good idea to keep a doubtful eye on those who repeat a high number without supporting data.

Shipping Insurance Fraud? A Great Mystery Story "The Hijacking of a $100 Million Supertanker"

Fascinating read at BloombergBusinesWeek The Hijacking of a $100 Million Supertanker

photo by Chief Intelligence Specialist Raynald Lenieux, USN

"The Hijacking of the Brillante Virtuoso: A Mysterious Assault. An Unsolved Murder. And a Ship That Hasn't Given Up All Its Secrets"
by Kit Chellel and Matthew Campbell

Just read it.

It's a throwback to the old days when some older ships "mysteriously" sank.

Been a couple of movies along these lines, The Wreck of the Mary Deare and Claim.

Hat tip: Saturn 5

Shipping Traffic

Traffic at sea? You bet. Here's an image grabbed from MaritimeTraffic of actual ships using their AIS (Automatic Identification System) at sea world-wide:

And one of the area around Japan, with Tokyo in the red oval:

Traffic? You bet.

Potential for confusion? You bet.

Just keep it in mind.

U.S. Navy Office Naval Intelligence Worldwide Threat to Shipping (WTS) Report 18 October - 16 November 2016

U.S. Navy Office Naval Intelligence Worldwide Threat to Shipping (WTS) Report 18 October - 16 November 2016... by lawofsea on Scribd

World Maritime Day

Yes, it's also National Punctuation Day, but more importantly is should be the day we appreciate the work of honest mariners who bring the goods:

It's World Maritime Day!:

Today, we live in a society supported by a global economy, which simply could not function if it were not for shipping. Shipping serves global trade by carrying huge quantities of cargo, all over the world, cost-effectively, cleanly and safely.

Establishing a sustainable maritime transportation sector is essential to the development and growth of the world's economy.

How important is the shipping industry and the open seas that allow goods to flow? Not many answers to that better than this U.S. Navy piece:

U.S. Naval War College Symposium on "Maritime Security, Seapower, and Trade"

I'm sure my invitation to this got -um- lost in the mail, but if, like me, you find that you were unable to attend this 24-26 March 2014 U.S. Naval War College Symposium on "Maritime Security, Seapower, and Trade," then I can recommend that you follow that link to learn about the symposium and then visit the working papers link for some interesting reading.

Some of the usual suspects were there, Claude Berube, B. J. Armstrong and Dr. Martin Murphy - but there are many others who names presently may not be known to you, but whose papers will both inform and raise new questions for you to ponder.

The symposium goal:

To make sense of the relationship among maritime security, seapower, and trade, the EMC Chair will convene a symposium that brings experts from industry, the policy community, and the sea services. Participants will reflect on the importance of classic maritime thought and how changes in the shipping industry, trade patterns, and non-state use of the oceans impact future naval operations. The implications are important for understanding the types of missions combatant commanders will execute and the types of equipment and training the Navy must provide to support these missions. Keynote speakers will address the diplomatic and operational considerations of maritime cooperation.

Sure would like a webcast of these things . . . but without that, go read and enjoy.

Navy Target Practice? or "Cannibal Rat-Infested Ghost Ship Headed For The UK?"

Yahoo report: Cannibal Rat-Infested Ghost Ship Headed For The UK?

A "Tomo News" video:



The BBC is more restrained:

The abandoned Russian cruise liner, named Lyubov Orlova, has been missing since it was cut loose while being towed from Canada almost a year ago.

There had been fears that winter storms could have been pushed it across the Atlantic Ocean and towards the UK.

But coastguards have reported no sightings.

A spokesman for the UK Maritime and Coastguard Agency said: "We have received no reported sightings of the vessel since April last year, but we will respond accordingly."

Sounds like the time to unlimber some naval guns and torpedoes and put this thing down if anyone can find it.

Way down.

Fish Stories Part 2: World Aquaculture Background

The UN's Food and Agricultural Organization reports at Fisheries and Aquaculture:

Fish harvest in China -Courtesy of FAO Aquaculture Photo Library

Aquaculture, probably the fastest growing food-producing sector, now accounts for nearly 50 percent of the world's food fish.

The two leading aquaculture nations are China and India.

Naturally, there are concerns that aquaculture (both inland (freshwater) and "mariculture"(ocean/littoral) be conducted in an environmentally sustainable/responsible/friendly manner - as the World Wildlife Foundation argues in the following video:


As set out in FAO's THE STATE OF WORLD FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE 2012 (pdf),at number page 3, Asia accounts for 2/3 of fish consumption with Africa last on that list. From that same reference:

Bangladesh Carp Harvest -Courtesy of FAO Aquaculture Photo Library

"Capture" refers to non-farmed fish. Inland refers, essentially, to freshwater fish, marine to saltwater fish.

A couple of other important tables from the FAO 2012 report:

India Fish Harvest- Courtesy of FAO Aquaculture Photo Library

China, India, Vietnam,Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Thailand lead the world, with China far out in front. Norway is the sole Western nation in the top ten.

The leading fish produced in China, India and Bangladesh are varieties of carp, often considered a "trash" fish in Western cultures:

Production of freshwater fishes has always been dominated by carps (71.9 percent,24.2 million tonnes, in 2010). Among carps, 27.7 percent are non-fed filter-feeders and the rest are fed with low-protein feeds. Production of tilapias has a wide distribution, and 72 percent are raised in Asia (particularly in China and Southeast Asia), 19 percent in Africa, and 9 percent in America. Viet Nam dominates production of omnivorous Pangasius catfishes although there are other producers, such as Indonesia and Bangladesh. World production of Pangasius catfish may be understated
because booming production in India has yet to be reflected in statistics. In 2010, Asia accounted for 73.7 percent of the production of other catfish species, America took its share to 13.5 percent (with channel catfish production), leaving 12.3 percent of production in Africa (dominated by North African catfish). Carnivorous species such as perches, basses and snakeheads accounted for only 2.6 percent of all freshwater fish produced in 2010.

Zero Emission Ships: The Power of Hydrogen

Image from GL Group

From Maritime Propulsion "The Future of the Fehmarn Link: ZERO EMISSION SHIPS":

The FutureShip engineers took a completely new course and approached the matter in a holistic way: from fuel-protection, through energy conversion and storage, and up to optimization of the ship design. For example, the surplus electricity generated by wind turbines in northern Germany and Denmark is to be used to produce hydrogen. This can be transformed back into electrical energy by the fuel cells on board the ship in order to supply the electrical pod drives. Any excess electricity is stored in batteries to cover peaks in demand. Modern hull lines, optimized propeller shapes and efficient procedures in port play a vital role in reducing the overall energy needs.

Read more at the GL website here:

Created by GL’s Strategic Research and Development unit, the Zero-Emission Container Feeder Vessel (“ZERO”) is a design concept for a completely emission- free vessel powered by liquid hydrogen (LH2). The fuel for the GL ZERO could be produced using surplus wind energy, and the vessel type would be ideally suited for operating in northern European waters.

One catch, though, the price of marine gas oil has to increase to make this venture cost competitive:

The hydrogen produced could be liquefied and stored in tanks. Intermediate storage of LH2 for up to ten days would require the installation of insulated tanks of up to 5,000 m3. With the wind farm operating approximately 4,000 hours per annum, the price of LH2 would be about US$7,500/t. These costs include production, liquefaction and on-site storage. GL estimates that liquid hydrogen produced by wind power could be commercially attractive sometime between 2020 and 2030, provided that the price of marine gas oil (MGO) increases to US$2,000/t.

According to BunkerWorld.com, current MGO price is about 1/2 of that $2000/t level.

Gl has a nice video, too, here. Or, from YouTube:

Strait of Malacca Pirates: Impacting a salvage job in New Zealand

MV Rena aground but before breaking up

So, there's this ship, MV Rena, which managed to ground itself off New Zealand (see here) causing all sorts of issues and generally irritating nearly all who have become involved with her, due to an oil spill, her breaking apart and all that stuff, making her the cause of New Zealand's "worst ever maritime environmental disaster."

So, of course, it was decided that it would be a good idea to clear the remainder of the now former ship and a contract was let to do that.

However, perhaps in keeping with my newly formulated theory that the former MV Rena was a jinxed ship, more bad things have happened, this time at the hands of pirates of the Malacca Strait and as reported by the NZ Herald News, at Pirates latest blow to hit Rena salvage:

There have been ravaging storms, rotting cargo and equipment overboard - now marauding pirates are being blamed for hampering the salvage of the Rena.

It has been revealed pirates plundered $20,000 of equipment without being detected that had been on board the barge RNG280 as it set sail from Singapore to Tauranga.
***
Mr Leckey suspected the pirates had watched as specialised salvage equipment was being loaded onto the barge in Singapore about six weeks ago.

"We are still trying to figure that out. I was in the shipyard and we had packed them into containers so people must have seen us doing this."

The pirates are thought to have climbed on board the barge at night and broken into the containers as it sailed through the Strait of Malacca.
***

Among the booty were boxes of magnesium welding rods used for cutting steel, fuel pumps, and other equipment.

"I don't know what they are going to use it for, there are very [few] people who use it in the world," said Mr Leckey.

"What seemed pretty silly to us was that there was 3000 gallons of brand new paint sitting right beside the rods ... normally, if they were going to steal something, they would steal paint."

The theft meant the company lost $20,000 it would not be claiming insurance for - and left it to pay another $20,000 for new gear, plus $15,000 extra for it to be flown in from the United States.

Incidentally, the raid came at the same time the company lost expensive gas-cutting gear that fell into the sea along with a chunk of the Rena.

"It was an unlucky day all round."

Yes, it was of one several unlucky days involving MV Rena.