On Midrats 27 April 14: Episode 225- "The Long War Becomes a Teenager," with Bill Roggio

Please join us at 5pm EDT, 27 April 14 for Midrats Episode 225- "The Long War Becomes a Teenager," with Bill Roggio

It hasn't gone anywhere, the Long War, that is.

People may be suffering whiplash having to look back to Europe in the middle of a Pacific pivot, and the Arab spring wilted in to extremism and bloodshed - but the war against the West still goes on from lone wolf attacks at home, to drone strikes across the swath of southwest, south, and central Asia.

Coming back to Midrats for the full hour to discuss this and more will be Bill Roggio, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Bill is also the President of Public Multimedia Inc, a non-profit news organization; and the founder and Editor of The Long War Journal, a news site devoted to covering the war on terror. He has embedded with the US and the Iraqi military six times from 2005-08, and with the Canadian Army in Afghanistan in 2006. Bill served in the US Army and New Jersey National Guard from 1991-97.

Join us live if you can or pick the show up later by clicking here.

If you have questions for Bill, please join in the chat room and we'll pass on what we can.

Saturday is Heinlein Quote Day #5

From Have Space Suit—Will Travel (1958):

"Die trying” is the proudest human thing.

Friday Fun Film: The Naval Gun Factory

"Daddy, where do U.S. naval guns come from?"

Back in 1952, and for about 180 years before that, the answer was "The Naval Gun Factory" -



It should roll into Part 2, but if it doesn't here's

Part 2

Malacca Strait and South China Sea Piracy: Cargo Theft from Tankers

Incident 1: 17 Apr 14

:
A couple of reports of similar activities involving product theft.

A week ago, this interesting tale of armed robbery and product theft from the ICC's Live Piracy and Armed Robbery Report

Location detail: 26NM SSW of Pulau Aur
Type of Attack: Hijacked
Narrations:
17.04.2014: 2010 LT: Posn: 01:59.8N – 104:25.4E, 26NM SSW of Pulau Aur, Malaysia.
A product tanker was boarded and hijacked by around 16 heavily armed pirates who then transferred and stole part of the fuel cargo into smaller unknown tankers. Crew and ship properties were stolen and ship communication equipment damaged. Master and crew managed to repair the damage and proceed to a safe port.

Yesterday, there is this Al Jazeera report:

Armed pirates stole $2.5 million worth of diesel fuel from an oil tanker off the coast of Malaysia and took the captain and two other crew members with them, underscoring increasing threats to shipping in one of the world's busiest waterways, Malaysian maritime officials said Wednesday.
***
Eight Indonesian pirates in a fishing vessel boarded the Naniwa Maru No. 1 at about 1 a.m. local time on Tuesday off the coast of western Malaysia, the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency (MMEA) said.

The pirates pumped about 800,000 gallons of the 1.18 million gallons of diesel carried by the tanker into two waiting vessels and made off with three Indonesian crew members, including the captain and chief engineer, the agency said.
***
Malaysian shipping authorities believe some of the crew could have been part of the plot to steal the diesel.

"There is a possibility that the abducted crew was involved in the hijack based on new leads and that their personal documents, clothes and belongings were taken along with them," the MMEA said in a news release.

A Reuters report:

"We are very concerned," said Noel Choong, head of the International Maritime Bureau's Malaysia-based Piracy Reporting Centre, who added the ship was hijacked while sailing near the Malaysia town of Port Klang.

"It's the first time this has happened so far north in the Malacca Strait, and the first time they have kidnapped the crew. It's not an area where we have seen the modus operandi of ships hijacked for their cargo," he told Reuters.

Incident 2: 22 Apr 14

And the ICC Live Piracy and Armed Robbery Report:

Location detail: 3NM WNW OF ONE FATHOM BANK, OFF PORT KLANG,
Type of Attack: Hijacked
Narrations:
22.04.2014: 0055 LT: Posn: 02:59N – 100:54E, 3NM WNW of One Fathom Bank, off Port Klang, Malacca Strait.
A tanker was boarded and hijacked by around 10 heavily armed pirates who then transferred and stole part of the fuel cargo into smaller unknown tankers. Crew and ship properties were stolen and ship communication equipment damaged. The pirates kidnapped three crew members and escaped. The vessel and remaining crew safely arrived at a port.

So, does two make a pattern?

An interesting amount of logistics involved in getting the smaller tankers to the right place at the right time, I would think. You might think of it as organized crime. I wonder if they took lessons from folks in Nigeria?

Disaster Prep Wednesday: Electromagnetic Pulse Stuff

Ah, Electromagnetic Pulse. EMP. Turning out the lights, shutting down the grid, tossing man back into the dark ages.

Read the books? You know One Second After? Lightning Fall? Seen the television show? Perhaps the National Geographic American Blackout?

If so, you know that we are doomed. Doomed, I tell you!

Or maybe not.

Suppose we do a little preparation in anticipation of an EMP event? How much prep? I guess that depends on your assessment of the likelihood of an EMP event occurring during your lifetime. Does it make a difference if it's a man-made event, triggered by some nuclear explosion above the earth by some outlaw nation or transnational terror group or if it results from something the sun does?

No.

So, there are about (by my rough count) 30 zillion survivalist sites giving out advice on fending the result off an EMP "event."

Let's go with what FEMA says:

1. You are probably not going to suffer physically from the EMP source (unless, of course, it is an attack that involves lots of ground burst nuclear weapons, in which case EMP may be the least of your immediate concerns).
2. Your unhardened electronics (and those of the area around you) may, however, sustain damage. However, FEMA  notes:

   To put all this in perspective, we must emphasize that while many types of electrical/electronic equipment could be affected or even knocked out by the EMP from high-altitude bursts, a rather small percentage overall is likely to be damaged. There are so many scientific uncertainties that remain in this area of technology that no one can state with any degree of certainty just how much damage could be expected. Certainly, some automobile ignition systems could fail, as could some portions of telephone and radio communications and airline communications, navigational aids, and electrical/electronic equipment. However, the concept of total oblivion for all electronic equipment and data stored on magnetic media (disc or tape) in all North America is a fantasy without scientific validity.

What? Hey, go read for your self - it's on page 16 of FEMA 128, Chapter 4, which is linked to above.

Here's another place to go exploring, the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack, which published the lengthy, Critical National Infrastructures Report. This report does what its title suggests and looks at the effect of an EMP event on everything from merchant shipping to farming to . . . you. Well worth a read. The scary parts are things like long lead time transformers for the power grid and possibility of fly by wire aircraft developing control issues in flight. Food, water, electricity, communications, banking, oil and gas production and refining, emergency services, government - it all gets touched on.

Well, what to do at the minimum to prepare? First, you cannot do much about the big stuff - the national infrastructure is something to keep talking to your senators and representative and state and local governments about - it is politics and money and money is always in short supply, while politics is plentiful. Secondly, focus on what you and yours will need - and "yours" includes your neighbors because if they see you doing with while they are doing without, things might not stay neighborly (a point well made in that NatGeo show, by the way).

A lot of these preparations are like those of getting ready for other any disaster - have an emergency kit - food, water, comfort stuff (toilet paper, baby wipes, etc). Other preparations may include more exotic stuff - like making a Farady cage in which to keep your valuable electronics. By the way, a microwave oven is a Farraday cage - I guess you could keep a old one around and stick electronics in it. What and when depends, again, on your degree of concern. You can also make a Faraday cage out of a steel garbage can, as seen below:


Note that the can is lined with cardboard to isolate the can contents from the metal of the can. You can also test the success of your effort by putting an FM radio inside the can and then closing the lid. If you hear the radio, you need to do some more work.

As far as your car goes - well, it's a good time to invest in a bicycle. You probably need the exercise anyway. Or have an older car around without all the computers. My son's 1968 MGB is being held hostage in my garage while I work on it.

I have this idea that I could generate electricity through a steam engine powering. This guy will sell you a steam engine capable of providing "1500 watts of electrical power." I think you provide your own wood and a boiler. You can build your own boiler, I reckon. Or buy one. All the old Navy BT's and snipes will want one.

Good luck.

Fire Scout? We don't need no stinkin' Fire Scout . . .

Every now and then CDR Salamander has been known to refer to some of my posts. Turnabout being fair play, let's look at his recent post on the proposed cancellation of the rotary winged MQ-8 Fire Scout drone "wonder copter" as set out in "Because after awhile, people tire of being made the fool"

The whole helo-drone program was a good experiment, but as with many experiments as of late - it was . . . oversold . . .

Some of you may recall that prototype of unmanned aerial vehicles, the Drone Anti-Submarine Helicopter (DASH), which has graced these pages before. A program that wandered through the fleet and other places for something like 44 years ending in this final flight (long video - 46 minutes- flying stuff begins about 33:50):



During its day, DASH was used for ASW, gun spotting and as the butt of a zillion sea stories: "It went out and then disappeared over the horizon." In its evolution out of the fleet, some spotted a conspiracy:

The frequently asked question of "Why is it that an aircraft that was so ahead-of-its-time, then in the 1960s, is not used by our Navy/military, today" from our public and military visitors alike needs to be answered and here at the Gyrodyne Helicopter Historical Foundation (GHHF), we felt that the NAVY should answer that question.
Accordingly, here is an internal Navy memo, since declassified, written by Lieutenant Commander Ira B. Anderson USN in 1970 to the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) which offers a glimpse of the internal struggle waged by the Naval Aviators which were frightened at the possibility of being replaced by Drones and the Drone supporters who were convinced that being freed of concern over the loss of human life, true expansion of the military applications of Drones/UAVs could be attained furthering our nations offensive and defensive capabilities.
In that struggle for control, the Navy failed to support its' state-of-the-art UAV program (the first of its kind in the world) and therefore failed DASH.

On the other hand, one of the highlights of the Navy League's Sea, Air and Space Exposition was a report on a software and hardware package that would allow any helicopter to be converted to an unmanned aircraft, as set out here:

A package of sensors and software that is claimed to be able to turn any helicopter into an unmanned craft has passed two demonstration flights.

"In the demonstration tests at Quantico, a Marine with no prior experience with the technology was given a handheld device and 15 minutes of training," said a press release from the Office of Naval Research. "The Marine was able to quickly and easily program in the supplies needed and the destination, and the helicopters arrived quickly-even autonomously selecting an alternative landing site based on last-second no-fly-zone information added in from the Marine.

The Autonomous Aerial Cargo/Utility System AACUS consists of a sensor and software package that can be fitted to manned helicopters to avoid obstacles in low visibility conditions. The same package also enables a helicopter to become an unmanned aircraft.

"A self-flying robot with laser beams. It doesn't get much cooler than that."

Okay. It's being used for cargo helicopters. How about if you put one of those packages on - say- a Super Cobra? A relatively low-cost anti-surface weapon system launched from an LCS? Or any ship with a flight deck?

We already own the aircraft - and they don't need to be state of the art to do that sort of mission. Just saying . . .

Office of Naval Research AACUS info here.

So, the basic question is whether the expense of Fire Scout can be re-directed to making AACUS available for non-cargo use? If so, why pay to develop Fire Scout?

Easter

Saturday is Heinlein Quote Day #4

From The Rolling Stones:

Everything is theoretically impossible, until it is done. One could write a history of science in reverse by assembling the solemn pronouncements of highest authority about what could not be done and could never happen. - Robert A. Heinlein

Friday Fun Film: "Your Ship in Action" (1944)

From construction to operation - U.S. Navy cruisers for the fleet:

Disaster Prep Wednesday: Watching the Weather

With the arrival of Spring it is a good idea to keep an eye on the weather - tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, flooding, hurricanes and all. A great site to get the weather picture is NOAA's Daily Hazards Briefing. Here's a screen capture of most of the front page of this site:

Most everything you will need is there - lake and river levesl, severe weather info, links to earthquake and volcanic activity and ash reports.

Go check it out.

"Innovation and Supporting the Warfighter"

On the purpose of innovation: "I never, ever want to see a Sailor, Marine or Coast Guardsman in a fair fight ever . . ." Rear Admiral Matthew L. Klunder, Chief of Naval Research

From the recent Navy League Sea Air and Space Exposition, an interesting panel discussing "Innovation and Supporting the Warfighter" -




Thanks to DVIDS.

Spinning the Sexual Revolution or Everything Old is New Again

The year was 1967. A young grad student was teaching an English class at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. One of the assignments he handed out was to read and do paper on Andrew Marvell's "To His Coy Mistress." This short poem, for those of you who may not recall it is as follows:

Had we but world enough and time,
This coyness, lady, were no crime.
We would sit down, and think which way
To walk, and pass our long love’s day.
Thou by the Indian Ganges’ side
Shouldst rubies find; I by the tide
Of Humber would complain. I would
Love you ten years before the flood,
And you should, if you please, refuse
Till the conversion of the Jews.
My vegetable love should grow
Vaster than empires and more slow;
An hundred years should go to praise
Thine eyes, and on thy forehead gaze;
Two hundred to adore each breast,
But thirty thousand to the rest;
An age at least to every part,
And the last age should show your heart.
For, lady, you deserve this state,
Nor would I love at lower rate.
But at my back I always hear
Time’s wingèd chariot hurrying near;
And yonder all before us lie
Deserts of vast eternity.
Thy beauty shall no more be found;
Nor, in thy marble vault, shall sound
My echoing song; then worms shall try
That long-preserved virginity,
And your quaint honour turn to dust,
And into ashes all my lust;
The grave’s a fine and private place,
But none, I think, do there embrace.
Now therefore, while the youthful hue
Sits on thy skin like morning dew,
And while thy willing soul transpires
At every pore with instant fires,
Now let us sport us while we may,
And now, like amorous birds of prey,
Rather at once our time devour
Than languish in his slow-chapped power.
Let us roll all our strength and all
Our sweetness up into one ball,
And tear our pleasures with rough strife
Thorough the iron gates of life:
Thus, though we cannot make our sun
Stand still, yet we will make him run.

Okay. At the time - some 47 years ago - this poem created a scandal - an academic freedom and free speech scandal- one of the agents of which was a man named Jesse Helms, then a local Raleigh television editorialist.

While there are a couple of different versions of how Mr. Helms (later U.S. Senator Helms) got involved - see a UNC oral history here (which incidentally gets Marvell's first name wrong) -

What happened was that Michael Paull who was this young graduate student, assigned his class to write a theme on Marvell's poem, "To His Coy Mistress" which is, you know, like twenty-five lines long or something. Well, I can't remember what it said, but there was a misinterpretation and one of the freshman coeds told her mother that she had to write a poem on "my first seduction" which was not true. At least that's what the mother reported at a dinner party to Jesse Helms who was then a radio commentator in Raleigh, now our Senator. And the mother told Jesse Helms that her daughter had told her that she had to write on "my first seduction" and the assignment was given by a young male graduate student.
***
.... So Jesse Helms called the University and asked what was going on. "Are your young male graduate students trying to seduce the freshmen coeds this way?" And they didn't know anything about it, you know, and they said they'd call back. But in any event, Jesse went on the air.
***
During his editorial and complained that the University was assigning…. That the freshmen coeds had to write about their love affairs to the young graduate students who naturally were trying to seek out what was doing around. So that was the thing. And as soon as Jesse…. And he said, "What are they doing about it?" Well, immediately Carlysle Sitterson, the Chancellor, removed Paull from his teaching assignment to a research assignment, so he was no longer a TA, a teaching assistant, he was an RA, a research assistant.
***
All twenty-two of Mr. Paull's students signed petitions requesting his return to teaching duties. Between two hundred and three hundred students and faculty members organized into the Committee for Free Inquiry and asked that Mr. Paull be reinstated and that a review board be set up in the English department. Some newspapers expressed concern. The Greensboro Daily News declared, ‘The spectacle of a great University reassigning its instructors at the behest of a bullying television station is hardly believable.’ The Daily Tarheel campus newspaper headed its editorial, ‘Who's afraid of Jesse Helms? The University, that's who."’ So it went. They did appoint a committee in the English department to review the whole situation. There are five members; five tenured senior members of the faculty were appointed to look into it and this was a fig leaf. You can't just put him back and acknowledge you were wrong. So you have a committee and the committee…. Another report here is nineteen pages long and there were distinguished people on the committee and they recommended that he be reinstated, that it had all been an misunderstanding. And he was reinstated.

You should get the idea - a right wing assault on the academic freedom to teach great poetry because of sexual innuendo.

So now, we circle back - again to Chapel Hill, and this time not in a classroom supported by state funds. No, this time to a bar - a shortage of which there is not in Chapel Hill and which you are free to walk in and out of if the ambiance is not to your liking - and to this UNC Student Gets DJ Fired for Playing 'Blurred Lines,' Because Rape Culture :

On Saturday night, University of North Carolina student Liz Hawryluk asked the DJ at a local haunt, Fitzgerald's Irish Pub, to stop playing Robin's Thicke "Blurred Lines," because it "triggers" victims of sexual assault. After Hawryluk spoke out about the incident on social media, Fitzgerald's fired the DJ.

Hawryluk told Jenny Surane at The Daily Tarheel that after she complained to the DJ about the song, she was asked by management to leave the bar. "Fundamentally, all I was aiming to do is to create a safe space in the Carolina community," she explains. "In a lot of ways, violent or graphic images that allude to sexual violence are triggers."

Okay, apparently the most offensive lines in the offending song are:

And that's why I'm gon' take a good girl
I know you want it
I know you want it
I know you want it
You're a good girl
Can't let it get past me
You're far from plastic
Talk about getting blasted
I hate these blurred lines
I know you want it
I know you want it
I know you want it
But you're a good girl
The way you grab me
Must wanna get nasty
Go ahead, get at me
[Pharrell:] Everybody get up

Oh, mercy.

How different are the concepts in Marvell's work and that of Thicke's work? How tender are our youth?

Everything old is new again.

My advice to those who are distraught by our culture and seek "trigger" labels on everything comes from Shakespeare - the only safe thing to do is to "get thee to a nunnery."

Otherwise, there is no safe haven.

In fact, I'm pretty sure a study of Shakespeare's Titus Andronicus would need major trigger warnings - especially Act 2 Scene 4, when Lavinia is returned from being raped and mutilated.

What next? Banning the Bard? All that war and murder and stuff.

Better get after those Greek playwrights, too, I mean Sophocles - murder and incest?

You know, there are cultures which use rape as a means of warfare. Like for as long as humankind has roamed the earth.

Grow up, it's a tough world out there.

Saturday is Heinlein Quote Day #3

There is no worse tyranny than to force a man to pay for what he does not want merely because you think it would be good for him.-- Robert A. Heinlein, The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress

On Midrats 13 April 14- Episode 223: "12 Carriers and 3 Hubs with Bryan McGrath"

Please join us for Midrats Episode 223: 12 Carriers and 3 Hubs with Bryan McGrath on Sunday 13 April 2014 at 5pm (EDT).

"Where are the carriers?" Regardless of the writing, talking, and pontificating about "Why the carriers?" - when there is a real world crisis - leaders still ask, "Where are the carriers."

Since we waived the requirement for a floor of 11, we have drifted to the new normal of 10 CVNs without dedicated additional funding, even 10 isn't an accurate number. With one undergoing nuclear refueling - you really have 9. Knowing what it takes to deploy, train, maintain and all other preparations - in normal times we require 9 carriers to make three available now - if you are lucky. If you have an emergency that requires multiple carriers on station - you can run out of options very fast, and the calendar gets very short.

Surge? If, as Rear Admiral Thomas Moore said last year, “We’re an 11-carrier Navy in a 15-carrier world.” - what risk are we taking with 9 carriers that can get underway?

Our guest for the full hour to discuss this and more will be Bryan McGrath, CDR, USN (Ret.), Managing Director of The FerryBridge Group. We will use as a basis for our discussion the article he co-authored with the American Enterprise Institute's Mackenzie Eaglen, America's Navy needs 12 carriers and 3 hubs.

Join us live at 5pm on the 13th or pick the show up later by clicking here.

If you are feeling daring, you can even join us in the chat room.

Friday Fun Film: "Hook Down, Wheels Down"

A short hour long history of Navy pilots and aircraft carriers:

Allowing the future to prevail . . .

Out with the old . . .

There is a great deal of discussion in Navy circles about both "new technologies" (see e.g. fuel from seawater and railguns at sea and lasers get deployed on a 40-year old+ ship), and new thinking - "disruptive thinking", "additive manufacturing" and much more.

The Littoral Combat Ship sorta leads the way in demanding new technology to make it work right - UAVs, UUVs and perhaps USVs being essential to its missions. The LCS experiment with specialized command modules for ASW, AAW and ASuW clearly fall into this category.

Having just finished reading Buell'sThe Quiet Warrior: A Biography of Admiral Raymond A. Spruance and now reading Potter's Nimitz, I was struck by how rapidly these relative "old fogies" adapted to the concept that the "battleship' era was over and the age of "aircraft carriers and submarines" had begun. I guess it is fair to say that both Nimitz and Spruance had done some serious thinking and study of such matters before the war, but still - in a world of "battleship admirals" these two leaders adapted quickly because they were ready for the future when it became the present.

Perhaps this is not clearly stated enough - but as I am also reading the revised version of Gilder's Wealth and Poverty, there is something in this section that caught my attention:

.... creative destruction is always the essence of growth.

UCAV

From this fact arises the central question about any system of political economy, any platform of a political party, any inspiring scheme of leadership: will it allow the future to prevail? Will it favor the promise of the unknown against the comforts and passions of the threatened past? Little else matters. As at every other point in the harrowing course of human history, current technologies and productivities are inadequate to a rapidly growing and, above all, increasingly demanding world population. As at every other historical epoch, faithless and shortsighted men attempt to halt the increase of knowledge and the advance of technology; they dream of “stationary states,” “economic equilibria,” “alternative lifestyles,” “diminishing technological returns,” “ecological stasis,” and “a return to nature,” all the while mumbling of “the threat of scientific progress.” Such fantasies, endlessly refuted and endlessly recurrent, are the prime obstacle to the survival of civilization.
Gilder, George (2012-07-31). Wealth and Poverty: A New Edition for the Twenty-First Century (pp. 321-322). Regnery Publishing. Kindle Edition.

As you might know, "creative destruction" was not Gilder's idea, but came from Joseph Schumpeter, as set out in this nice summary:

3-D "print"

Herein lies the paradox of progress. A society cannot reap the rewards of creative destruction without accepting that some individuals might be worse off, not just in the short term, but perhaps forever. At the same time, attempts to soften the harsher aspects of creative destruction by trying to preserve jobs or protect industries will lead to stagnation and decline, short-circuiting the march of progress.

... in with the new

In the economy, buggy-whip makers and their employees will suffer when buggies get replaced by automobiles even if they apply the "best" of all management practices. In the Navy, "creative destruction" (or perhaps in the case of battleships, actual destruction) will cause "battleship admirals" to have to find new places to work. Gas turbines and efficient diesel replace steam ship power plants, making fuel from seawater replaces long logistics lines . . . Railguns and lasers go to sea. Ships may not need to have magazines for powder and shot . . .

So? My least favorite justification for proceeding in a certain fashion has always been, "We've always done it this way."

It seems that now is a great time for the Navy to embrace change and to "allow the future to prevail."

Disaster Prep Wednesday: Don't Use Highway Overpasses as Tornado Shelters

For those who live in tornado country or happen to be passing through it, one issue that pops up repeatedly is how to react to a tornado event while on the road. One common reaction is to take a look at those massive highway overpass bridges and think they are just the ticket to safety.

However, there is an older NOAA study that suggests that might be a really bad idea. See Highway Overpasses as Tornado Shelters: Fallout From the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma/Kansas Violent Tornado Outbreak.

The State of Ohio agrees:

Many people mistakenly think that a highway overpass provides safety from a tornado. The reality is: an overpass may be one of the worst places to seek shelter from a tornado. An overpass as tornado shelter can put people at a greater risk of being killed or seriously injured by flying debris from the powerful tornado winds.

Wind speeds in tornadoes can exceed 200 mph. These destructive winds produce airborne debris that are blown into and channeled under the overpass where people might try to seek shelter. Debris of varying size and types, including dirt, sand and rocks, moving at incredible speeds can easily penetrate clothing and skin, causing serious injuries and possibly death. Very fine debris can also be forced into eyes, causing injury or loss of sight. A person can even be blown out or carried away from the overpass by the fierce tornado winds. If a person is positioned at the top of an overpass, he/she could encounter even higher wind speeds and more missile-like debris. Wind direction will also shift abruptly as the tornado passes, tossing debris from all sides.

The point being do not take shelter in highway overpasses.

Energy Wars: Fuel From the Sea

What's cooler than an "electromagnetic weapon at sea?" How about converting seawater to fuel?

Those wild and crazy Naval Research Lab folks and some Navy Reserve help have found way to convert sea water into hydrocarbon fuel. Proof of concept including fueling a model airplane for a test flight, as set out in "Scale Model WWII Craft Takes Flight With Fuel From the Sea Concept":

Navy researchers at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), Materials Science and Technology Division, demonstrate proof-of-concept of novel NRL technologies developed for the recovery of carbon dioxide (CO2) and hydrogen (H2) from seawater and conversion to a liquid hydrocarbon fuel.


Fueled by a liquid hydrocarbon—a component of NRL's novel gas-to-liquid (GTL) process that uses CO2 and H2 as feedstock—the research team demonstrated sustained flight of a radio-controlled (RC) P-51 replica of the legendary Red Tail Squadron, powered by an off-the-shelf (OTS) and unmodified two-stroke internal combustion engine.

Using an innovative and proprietary NRL electrolytic cation exchange module (E-CEM), both dissolved and bound CO2 are removed from seawater at 92 percent efficiency by re-equilibrating carbonate and bicarbonate to CO2 and simultaneously producing H2. The gases are then converted to liquid hydrocarbons by a metal catalyst in a reactor system.

"In close collaboration with the Office of Naval Research P38 Naval Reserve program, NRL has developed a game changing technology for extracting, simultaneously, CO2 and H2 from seawater," said Dr. Heather Willauer, NRL research chemist. "This is the first time technology of this nature has been demonstrated with the potential for transition, from the laboratory, to full-scale commercial implementation."

CO2 in the air and in seawater is an abundant carbon resource, but the concentration in the ocean (100 milligrams per liter [mg/L]) is about 140 times greater than that in air, and 1/3 the concentration of CO2 from a stack gas (296 mg/L). Two to three percent of the CO2 in seawater is dissolved CO2 gas in the form of carbonic acid, one percent is carbonate, and the remaining 96 to 97 percent is bound in bicarbonate.

NRL has made significant advances in the development of a gas-to-liquids (GTL) synthesis process to convert CO2 and H2 from seawater to a fuel-like fraction of C9-C16 molecules. In the first patented step, an iron-based catalyst has been developed that can achieve CO2 conversion levels up to 60 percent and decrease unwanted methane production in favor of longer-chain unsaturated hydrocarbons (olefins). These value-added hydrocarbons from this process serve as building blocks for the production of industrial chemicals and designer fuels.

In the second step these olefins can be converted to compounds of a higher molecular using controlled polymerization. The resulting liquid contains hydrocarbon molecules in the carbon range, C9-C16, suitable for use a possible renewable replacement for petroleum based jet fuel.

The predicted cost of jet fuel using these technologies is in the range of $3-$6 per gallon, and with sufficient funding and partnerships, this approach could be commercially viable within the next seven to ten years. Pursuing remote land-based options would be the first step towards a future sea-based solution.

The minimum modular carbon capture and fuel synthesis unit is envisioned to be scaled-up by the addition individual E-CEM modules and reactor tubes to meet fuel demands.

NRL operates a lab-scale fixed-bed catalytic reactor system and the outputs of this prototype unit have confirmed the presence of the required C9-C16 molecules in the liquid. This lab-scale system is the first step towards transitioning the NRL technology into commercial modular reactor units that may be scaled-up by increasing the length and number of reactors.

The process efficiencies and the capability to simultaneously produce large quantities of H2, and process the seawater without the need for additional chemicals or pollutants, has made these technologies far superior to previously developed and tested membrane and ion exchange technologies for recovery of CO2 from seawater or air.
- See more at: http://www.nrl.navy.mil/media/news-releases/2014/scale-model-wwii-craft-takes-flight-with-fuel-from-the-sea-concept#sthash.2gphEDJC.dpuf

So, let's see - with a large enough ship with a large enough plant on it, you could fuel the gas turbine powered fleet and its aircraft for . . .

Ashore? Making fuel from seawater? Why that's enough to help everyone with ocean access toward energy independence . . . I assume a small nuclear power plant could provide the energy to drive this process . . .

More from Physics.org. Might help with countering ocean acidification, too.

And about this from India's Economic Times "game changer" :

The development of a liquid hydrocarbon fuel is being hailed as "a game-changer" because it would signficantly shorten the supply chain, a weak link that makes any force easier to attack.

The US has a fleet of 15 military oil tankers, and only aircraft carriers and some submarines are equipped with nuclear propulsion.

All other vessels must frequently abandon their mission for a few hours to navigate in parallel with the tanker, a delicate operation, especially in bad weather.
***
Dr Heather Willauer, an research chemist who has spent nearly a decade on the project, can hardly hide her enthusiasm.

"For the first time we've been able to develop a technology to get CO2 and hydrogen from seawater simultaneously, that's a big breakthrough," she said, adding that the fuel "doesn't look or smell very different."

Now that they have demonstrated it can work, the next step is to produce it in industrial quantities. But before that, in partnership with several universities, the experts want to improve the amount of CO2 and hydrogen they can capture.

"We've demonstrated the feasibility, we want to improve the process efficiency," explained Willauer.

Way, way cool.

U.S. Navy to Test Electromagnetic Railgun Aboard Joint High Speed Vessel

Trial runs can be fun, but this test - Navy to Deploy Electromagnetic Railgun Aboard JHSV - ought to be a doozy:

The U.S. Navy plans to install and test a prototype electromagnetic railgun aboard a joint high speed vessel in fiscal year 2016, the service announced today.

This test will mark the first time an electromagnetic railgun (EM railgun) has been demonstrated at sea, symbolizing a significant advance in naval combat.

EM railgun technology uses an electromagnetic force - known as the Lorenz Force - to rapidly accelerate and launch a projectile between two conductive rails. This guided projectile is launched at such high velocities that it can achieve greater ranges than conventional guns. It maintains enough kinetic energy that it doesn't require any kind of high explosive payload when
it reaches its target.

High-energy EM railguns are expected to be lethal and effective against multiple threats, including enemy warships, small boats, aircraft, missiles and land-based targets.

"The electromagnetic railgun represents an incredible new offensive capability for the U.S. Navy," said Rear Adm. Bryant Fuller, the Navy's chief engineer. "This capability will allow us to effectively counter a wide-range of threats at a relatively low cost, while keeping our ships and sailors safer by removing the need to carry as many high-explosive weapons."

EM railgun technology will complement current kinetic weapons currently onboard surface combatants and offer a few specific advantages. Against specific threats, the cost per engagement is orders of magnitude less expensive than comparable missile engagements. The projectile itself is being designed to be common with some current powder guns, enabling the conservation of expensive missiles for use against more complex threats.

"Energetic weapons, such as EM railguns, are the future of naval combat," said Rear Adm. Matt Klunder, the chief of naval research. "The U.S. Navy is at the forefront of this game-changing technology."

This demonstration is the latest in a series of technical maturation efforts designed to provide an
operational railgun to the fleet. Since 2005, the Navy and its partners in industry and academia have been testing railgun technology at the Naval Surface Warfare Center in Dahlgren, Va., and the Naval Research Lab where the service has a number of prototype systems.

USN artist conception

The final operational system will be capable of launching guided, multi-mission projectiles to a range of 110 nautical miles against a wide range of threats. The series of tests are designed to capture lessons for incorporation into a future tactical design and will allow the Navy to best understand needed ship modifications before fully integrating the technology.

The Navy is using JHSV as a vessel of opportunity because of its available cargo and topside space and schedule flexibility. Because JHSVs are non-combatants, there is no plan to permanently install a railgun on any ship of the class. A final decision has not been made on which ship classes will receive a fully operational railgun.

Dear Navy,
Can I go along for the test ride?

Saturday is Heinlein Quote Day #2

From Time Enough for Love

“Progress isn't made by early risers. It's made by lazy men trying to find easier ways to do something.”

- Robert A. Heinlein

Robomow

On Midrats 6 Apr 14 -Episode 222: USS PONCE (AFSB(I)-15) Lessons with CAPT Jon N. Rodgers, USN

Please join us on Sunday at 5pm (EDT) for Midrats Episode 222: USS PONCE (AFSB(I)-15) Lessons with CAPT Jon N. Rodgers, USN

As with most concepts and good ideas, you really don't know what you need and how you need to do it until you put Sailors to task and head to sea.

The idea of an Afloat Forward Staging Base has, in a variety of forms, been a regular part of naval operations arguably for centuries under different names and with different equipment.

What about the 21st Century? More than just a story about the use and utility of the AFSB concept, the story of the USS PONCE is larger than that - it also has a lot to say about how one can quickly turn an old LPD around for a new mission, and how you can blend together the different but complementary cultures of the US Navy Sailors and the Military Sealift Command civilian mariners.

Our guest for the full hour to discuss this and more will be Captain Jon N. Rodgers, USN, former Commanding Officer of the USS PONCE AFSB(I)-15.

Either join us live or pick the show up later by clicking here.

Friday Fun Film: Night and Day Carrier Landings - Split Screen

A short video of a pair of carrier landings from the cockpit view. Carl Vause posted this spliced video taken during carrier qualifications being conducted with USS Abraham Lincoln.



You should probably note that the pilot has a whole lot more going on than is visible in this video- flight instruments, radio conversations, and the like.

Still. Some people get paid to have this kind of fun.

International Trade Whither it goest?

What are the trend lines we follow to see where the world economy is going? As long noted on this blog, one trend line is the "Baltic Dry Index." As set out in 2009:

As to why the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) works as an indicator, see here:

The BDI is one of the purest leading indicators of economic activity. It measures the demand to move raw materials and precursors to production, as well as the supply of ships available to move this cargo. Consumer spending and other economic indicators are backward looking, meaning they examine what has already occurred. The BDI offers a real time glimpse at global raw material and infrastructure demand. Unlike stock and commodities markets, the Baltic Dry Index is totally devoid of speculative players. The trading is limited only to the member companies, and the only relevant parties securing contracts are those who have actual cargo to move and those who have the ships to move it.

As noted here,

The BDI factors in the four different sizes of oceangoing dry bulk transport vessels:

Just last month, the Marketplace radio folks said Economic eyes again turn to the Baltic Dry Index, but there may be more to a decline in current days than declining markets -

And there's another reason for thinking that the big drop in the Baltic Dry Index may not be as menacing as it seems. The cost of shipping reflects not only the demand for raw materials, but also the supply of ships. Amir Alizandeh of the Cass Business School has been studying the accuracy of the Index as an economic predictor.

"If you have too many ships around, then this will result in a drop in the index," he says. "And that's the situation at the moment: We have too many ships chasing not enough cargoes."

The economic boom that preceded the collapse of Lehman Brothers had triggered a ship-building frenzy. All those extra ships have now been delivered, and the world has 60 percent more bulk carrying vessels than it needs.

So, when you seen a chart like the one below on Bloomberg, it may be too many hulls (in this case, Panamax hulls) chasing too few cargoes.

Which allows you to understand headlines like Baltic Dry Index weighed down by Panamax.

Just a reminder to know the background of any index you might plan to use to foresee the future.

Energy News: Why you will pay more the gas pump soon

The U.S. Energy Information Administration report on causes at Rail congestion, cold weather raise ethanol spot prices:

Extremely cold temperatures this winter led to rail congestion in and out of midwestern terminals that delayed shipments to other regions and resulted in significant ethanol stock draws. Railcar dwell time, the time that loaded railcars spend in a terminal awaiting movement, at Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation’s Galesburg, Illinois terminal, which handles many ethanol cars from Iowa, nearly doubled in early 2014 to reach a peak of 60 hours in February and remain above year-ago levels.

While more than 70% of ethanol producers are equipped to load unit trains (trains running a single product), only about 35% of gasoline blending terminals are equipped to receive them. The average speed of manifest trains (trains running multiple products), which are often used to deliver ethanol to gasoline blending terminals that are not equipped to handle unit trains, decreased by 23%, from 22 miles per hour (mph) to 17 mph over the past 12 months.

Ethanol stocks were drawn down nationwide by nearly 2 million barrels (bbl) from mid-February to mid-March, partially recovering to 15.9 million bbl on March 28. This is more than 4 million bbl below typical March levels, which averaged more than 20 million bbl from 2011 through 2013. East Coast inventories were especially hard hit and on March 14 reached their lowest level (4.5 million bbl) since EIA began recording data in June 2010.

Ethanol, the gift that keeps on giving.

The EIA has a nice graph, though: 

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration based on Oil Price Information Service (ethanol prices) and Thomson Reuters (RBOB prices).
Note: RBOB is reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending gasoline, a motor gasoline blending component intended for blending oxygenates to produce finished reformulated gasoline.

UPDATE: Oh, "Illusion of Climate Fixing?" (that a label below) see "Downsides of ethanol spur Obama to urge reduced usage" from 2013:

The Obama administration on Friday proposed to reduce the amount of ethanol in the nation’s fuel supply for the first time, acknowledging that the biofuel law championed by both parties in 2007 is not working as well as expected.

I hope to shout. Pay more, get less. What a country.

Disaster Prep Wednesday: Preparing for Earthquakes

The thing about earthquakes is that they are both inevitable and unpredictable. Recent quakes in Chile, California and other spots have raised current awareness levels - though there are assurances that the level of quake activity has not risen dramatically though the ability to locate them has improved and earthquake years have "averages":

According to long-term records (since about 1900), we expect about 17 major earthquakes (7.0 - 7.9) and one great earthquake (8.0 or above) in any given year.

If you live in the United States, there are regions that are more prone to earthquakes that others - California, Alaska, and the West Coast come to mind, but it's not just those areas. Here's a useful map from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS):

Worldwide? Well, this USGS page lists daily activity of earthquakes over 2.5 on the Richter scale. At the time of this writing, that list shows 63 such quakes. This map shows the daily activity:

USGS is working on developing "early warning" for quakes - as set out here:

Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) uses existing seismic networks to detect moderate to large earthquakes very rapidly so that a warning can be sent before destructive seismic waves arrive to locations outside the area where the earthquake begins. These warnings allow people to take protective action and can also triggering automatic responses to safeguard critical infrastructure.

You might note that the idea is to warn people outside the immediate quake area. For those at or near the epicenter, I guess you'll know when the quake arrives - when the quake arrives. Areas of greater or lesser earthquake risk are known, but where and when - not so much.

National seismic hazard map for the United States. Colors indicate peak horizontal ground acceleration (in % g) with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The earthquake early warning system is initially being developed in the western United States (California and Washington) where the seismic hazards are greatest and the density of seismic instruments approaches what is necessary to produce a useful warning.

The caption of the "Seismic Hazard Map" of the U.S. does a nice job of explaining risks. You might note the risks of the "New Madrid" (right center of map) and South Carolina zones. The USGS provides a poster of "20 Cool Facts about the New Madrid Seismic Zone" which include:

***In 1811, the population of what is now the central United States was very sparse. Still considered to be the western frontier, there were only about 5,700 people in the St. Louis area at the time. Most historical reports (journals, letters, and newspapers) describing the earthquake shaking and its effects were written by people who were located east of the Mississippi River. Today, about 11–12 million people live in the St. Louis–Memphis region.

I hope you get the idea that there are a few locations in the U.S. that are historically safe from earthquakes, but there are also vast regions that have, as they say, a "history."

All of which gets to the point of this post, which is what to do to prepare yourself and your loved ones for a serious earthquake. Naturally, the American Red Cross has some ideas at Earthquake Preparedness and Safety:

• Become aware of fire evacuation and earthquake safety plans for all of the buildings you occupy regularly.

• Pick safe places in each room of your home, workplace and/or school. A safe place could be under a piece of furniture or against an interior wall away from windows, bookcases or tall furniture that could fall on you.

• Practice “drop, cover and hold on” in each safe place. If you do not have sturdy furniture to hold on to, sit on the floor next to an interior wall and cover your head and neck with your arms.

• Keep a flashlight and sturdy shoes by each person’s bed in case the earthquake strikes in the middle of the night.

• Make sure your home is securely anchored to its foundation.

• Bolt and brace water heaters and gas appliances to wall studs.

• Bolt bookcases, china cabinets and other tall furniture to wall studs.

• Hang heavy items, such as pictures and mirrors, away from beds, couches and anywhere people sleep or sit.

• Brace overhead light fixtures.

• Install strong latches or bolts on cabinets. Large or heavy items should be closest to the floor.

• Learn how to shut off the gas valves in your home and keep a wrench handy for that purpose.

• Learn about your area’s seismic building standards and land use codes before you begin new construction.

• Keep and maintain an emergency supplies kit in an easy-to-access location.

Ah, yes, emergency supplies. The Red Cross has a list. You know, water, food and the like. Kept in a place unlikely to have your house drop on top of it. If you want to forgo doing your own kit assembly, there are kits you can buy. Including a commercially available kit from iPrepare that covers 5 people for a few days and runs about $160.

For people living in earthquake country, I would add some things - things I have also recommended for people living in hurricane country, including tools to move stuff out of the way to get to your emergency kit -like a "come-along" and a serious pry-bar.

The radio? Hand-cranked with some walkie talkies to allow communications if you send out scouts.

Some people suggest having some sort of "protection" from looters and those other varmints who, having failed to prepare for disasters, come looking to you for "assistance." I have previously suggested something like the Taurus Judge, chambered for .45 and .410. I still like the choice especially with more .410 than .45 rounds. Less chance of shooting a neighbor by accident is my thinking. But . . . you may have different views, including deciding that a weapon is just too much to worry about. Up to you.

I would offer the idea that the best protection may come in encouraging your neighbors to get their own emergency kits and discussing neighbor assistance programs, perhaps including Community Emergency Response Teams (CERT). Always a good idea to know your neighbors, anyway.

It is to laugh: "China says Manila provoking trouble in seas ahead of legal case"

Best unintentional humor item of the day from the bully of the South China Sea: "China says Manila provoking trouble in seas ahead of legal case":

China accused the Philippines on Monday of deliberately provoking trouble in the South China Sea by delivering supplies to a contested military outpost at the same time as seeking international arbitration in the dispute.

A Philippine vessel delivered food, water and fresh troops to Second Thomas Shoal over the weekend, evading two Chinese coastguard ships trying to block its path.

 Right, this is all Manila's fault for not bending to China's will. 

Some background at South China Sea: China Keep Raising Heat Over Disputed Island Claims.

Oh, those plucky Filipinos - outrageously taking food and water and replacements to a beached LST that represents their outpost on islands China wants because . . . oil and gas.

And maritime dominance of the South China Sea.

Reuters report of resupply adventure here:

Things were going smoothly for the Philippine ship until it was spotted by a Chinese coastguard ship about an hour away from the Second Thomas Shoal. The Chinese boat picked up speed to come near the left of the white Philippine ship, honking its horn at least three times.

The Chinese ship slowed down after a few minutes, but then a bigger coastguard vessel emerged, moving fast to cut the path of the Philippine boat.

The Chinese sent a radio message to the Filipinos, saying they were entering Chinese territory.

"We order you to stop immediately, stop all illegal activities and leave," said the radio message, delivered in English. Gato replied that his mission was to deliver provisions to Philippine troops stationed in the area.

Philippine troops wearing civilian clothes and journalists then flashed "V" for the peace sign at the Chinese.
***
Instead of stopping or reversing, the Philippine vessel picked up speed and eventually maneuvered away from the Chinese, entering waters that were too shallow for the bigger coastguard ships.

A U.S. navy plane, a Philippine military aircraft and a Chinese plane, all visible from their markings, flew above the ships at different intervals.

I guess we need to look at the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone.

See here for more on the ROP view and the source of the above image.