Kenya: Al Shabaab Lurks

Interesting (and pause-giving) article from Paul Hidalgo at Foreign Affairs "Why the Showdown Between Kenyatta and Odinga is Empowering al Shabaab":

The current political upheaval and conflict in Kenya could not have been better scripted for the Islamist militant group al Shabaab. Its continued attacks have successfully pitted the country’s two top politicians, President Uhuru Kenyatta and his main rival, Raila Odinga, against each other in a high-stakes game of political brinkmanship that could plunge Kenya into another toxic ethnic conflict -- exactly the kind of environment in which a group like al Shabaab can thrive.
***
Al Shabaab is relishing every moment. A divided Kenya is ideal for the militant group. With the Kenyan political elite consumed by infighting, and with security forces busy keeping the peace (or picking sides), the already porous Kenya–Somalia border would all but dissolve, giving al Shabaab fighters free reign as they strengthen their bases and increase recruitment efforts in Kenya.
***

You can read the whole thing with a free registration.

Kenya has been an ally in the Long War Against Terrorist Groups (LWATG), its disintegration into warring faction would be . . . "unhelpful."

As you can see from this old (1974) map, there is a tribal flavor to Kenya and there are a grunch of Somali refugees sitting in Kenya.

A sort of background article (from a sort of "leftist" view) from 2008 Beyond 'Tribes': Violence and Politics in Kenya:

When Nobel Prizewinning author Ngugi wa Thiong'o says that the present conflict is more about class than ethnicity, he is right. Talk of "tribes" is essentially a cover for more basic class divisions that have been exacerbated, first by colonial and more recently by corrupt governments in Kenya.

While the author points the finger at "global capitalism" as setting the table for economic chaos in Kenya, one could argue from the same set of data that the issue was the stifling of capitalism by the various governments that have held power in Kenya due to corruption and other factors, especially self enrichment by government agents through bribery:

Bribes at every level—from those collected from small business owners by impecunious police whose government pay has been siphoned off by corrupt officials up the line, to those paid by the middle class to obtain licenses of some kind, to those paid by international contractors/corporations in order to be treated preferentially in Kenyan business contracts—have also impeded the achievement of a stable prosperous economy.

Indeed, governmental corruption has contributed directly to the current breakdown of order in Kenya. With funds diverted to further enrich the rulers, the government has left its citizens at the mercy of all forms of violence. Several years ago in northern Kenya there was a cross-border attack from Ethiopia caused by intra-clan camel and cattle rustling that resembled strongly the better publicized Darfur raids. The feud resulted in a massacre in which an Ethiopian branch of a clan, related to those attacked, destroyed a Kenyan village, killing all of its inhabitants. One of the victims had the presence of mind to call the police on his cell phone, but it took three hours for the police to arrive because they did not have a vehicle. Money for such things usually disappears before reaching those whose job it is to keep order. The only survivors were two persons buried alive in a pile of bodies.

It hardly seems fair to blame "international capitalism" for every corrupt official who stands in the path of local business owners making their way. Be that as it may, the author does note:

Fast forward to post-independence and contemporary Kenya. When Kenyatta followed ethnic preferences in the redistribution of land that took place after independence, much of the land went to a small Kikuyu elite. Some established or took over highland plantations and continued to employ locals as labor. President Moi, in particular, during his long reign shamelessly created, manipulated, and advertised "tribal" loyalties in an effort to control the population and enrich certain powerful social groups.

So, the local government decides to exploit a system that allows a small minority to push down larger groups for the minorities benefit? I think there is a term for this - "oligarchy"

CIA World Factbook report on Kenya's economy:

Kenya has been hampered by corruption and by reliance upon several primary goods whose prices have remained low. Low infrastructure investment threatens Kenya's long-term position as the largest East African economy, although the Kenyatta administration has prioritized infrastructure development. International financial lenders and donors remain important to Kenya's economic growth and development. Unemployment is high at around 40%. The country has chronic budget deficits. Inflationary pressures and sharp currency depreciation peaked in early 2012 but have since abated following low global food and fuel prices and monetary interventions by the Central Bank. Recent terrorism in Kenya and the surrounding region threatens Kenya's important tourism industry. Kenya, in conjunction with neighboring Ethiopia and South Sudan, intends to begin construction on a transport corridor and oil pipeline into the port of Lamu in 2014.

So, you've got some 45 million Kenyans, (Christian 82.5% (Protestant 47.4%, Catholic 23.3%, other 11.8%), Muslim 11.1%, Traditionalists 1.6%, other 1.7%, none 2.4%, unspecified 0.7% (2009 census)), some goodly number who just might be unhappy with their government for reasons having little to do with al Shabaab's agenda, but who might not be disinclined to have things shaken up a bit.

How much that "bit" is - well, al Shabaab lurks.

By the way, there is another article at Foreign Affairs now worth contemplating, State of Imbalance: Why Countries Break Up
by Benjamin Miller:

There seems to be little connecting recent violence in the former Soviet space to ongoing bloodshed in the Middle East. In one place, a neo-imperialist power is attempting to reassert itself in a region that it ruled not so long ago. In the other, sect-based militant groups are grabbing up territory by the mile.

Even so, both conflicts spring from a common source, as do a host of other major conflicts around the world. In each, there is a mismatch between state boundaries and national identities -- a state-to-nation imbalance. The state is a set of institutions that administer a certain territory; the nation is made up of people who, in their view, share common traits (language, history, culture, religion) that entitle them to self-rule.

Are we simply kiving in a time of a realignment of states and national identities? Read the whole thing.

Strait of Malacca/South China Sea Fuel Pirates: How to Beat Them?

In recent months, there has been a seeming upsurge in the hijacking of small tankers near the Strait of Malacca and South China Sea (SoM/SCS). These hijacking result in the transfer of cargo from these hijacked ships to other vessels. The most recent case is reported as Pirates Hijack Product Tanker in South China Sea:

Another commercial ship appears to have fallen victim of pirate attacks. Namely, Honduras registered product tanker Moresby 9, carrying 2200 metric tonne of Marine Gas Oil (MGO) was boarded by unknown number of perpetrators on July 4th at about 1938 hrs (local time) approximately 34 nautical miles from the Anambas Islands, Indonesia, ReCAAP ISC said.
***
This is believed to be the seventh attack in the region since April.

As others have noted, this sort of activity has a lengthy history in the region, but seems to be on the uptick.

With that in mind, SeaShip in Focus has a recent article on fighting this threat in the SoM/SCS ares at "How to beat the pirates":

Piracy in Southeast Asia is nothing new. What is new, however, is the jump in numbers and the very specific targeting of certain types of ships.

This spike in hijacking and cargo theft has been brought about by the black market demand for marine fuel oil in Southeast Asia, says Steve McKenzie, a senior analyst at the UK firm, Dryad Maritime. *** The common denominator for all of these hijackings and cargo theft incidents this year has been Singapore.***

“The stealing of oil products in the region is targeted product theft, which results in the stolen cargo being sold on the black market,” says Gerry Northwood, the coo of security firm, GoAGT.
***
“We assess that these crimes will continue unabated until the black market in marine fuel oil is curtailed and the crime syndicates who are controlling the gangs who carry out the crimes are dealt with,” the Dryad analyst reckons.
***
The piracy model currently used in Southeast Asia is very similar to that used by Nigerian gangs, who in recent years have been hijacking large product tankers across West Africa and then stealing fuel oil. These crimes are intelligence led and well-coordinated.
***
So then, what’s the way to deal with this scourge?

GoAGT’s Northwood admits that finding a way to solve to the maritime criminality and piracy problem in Southeast Asia is not going to be straightforward.

“Most of the incidents are occurring inside territorial waters, which makes the legal use of weapons as a means of deterrent very difficult to achieve without the enlistment of government military or navy,” he explains.

The primary solution is to end the black market for the stolen cargo, says Dryad’s McKenzie. The syndicate that is controlling the gangs must have good connections within the fuel business in Singapore, he reckons. If these links were broken it would be more difficult to target specific vessels.

". . .until the black market . . . is curtailed" -- that may be a very long time.

As you read through the article, you will note that some of the passive/defensive suggestions set out in the anti-Somali piracy Best Management Practices 4 are suggested.

It is also worth remembering that Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia reached some agreements regarding pursuit of pirates in the Strait of Malacca in the past. Some of these issues arise from the fact that there often is no "high seas" ( as defined by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)) between the territorial waters of adjacent states in the Strait and in and around the islands that dot the area involved in these hijackings.

Whoa! There are limits on pirate hunting!

However, there are issues outside of the agreement area - as discussed here and in other posts, under the UNCLOS Part VII in which hijackers can commit their acts in the territorial waters of one state and escape "hot pursuit" by that state's navy/coast guard by sliding across in the territorial waters of a neighboring state:

Article 111. Right of hot pursuit

1. The hot pursuit of a foreign ship may be undertaken when the competent authorities of the coastal State have good reason to believe that the ship has violated the laws and regulations of that State. Such pursuit must be commenced when the foreign ship or one of its boats is within the internal waters, the archipelagic waters, the territorial sea or the contiguous zone of the pursuing State, and may only be continued ouside the territorial sea or the contiguous zone if the pursuit has not been interrupted. It is not necessary that, at the time when the foreign ship within the territorial sea or the contiguous zone receives the order to stop, the ship giving the order should likewise be within the territorial sea or the contiguous zone. If the foreign ship is within a contiguous zone, as defined in article 33, the pursuit may only be undertaken if there has been a violation of the rights for the protection of which the zone was established.

2. The right of hot pursuit shall apply mutatis mutandis to violations in the exclusive economic zone or on the continental shelf, including safety zones around continental shelf installations, of the laws and regulations of the coastal State applicable in accordance with this Convention to the exclusive economic zone or the continental shelf, including such safety zones.

3. The right of hot pursuit ceases as soon as the ship pursued enters the territorial sea of its own State or of a third State.

Since the hijackings often take place within the territorial waters of a state and not on the "high seas" they are not really "piracy" under the terms of UNCLOS but "sea robbery" or even simple theft or larceny not subject to such international law as there is, but to the laws of the states involved.

In short, it can be quite the mess. I suppose the problems of sorting all this out make "curtailing" the black market seem easy by comparison. It does presuppose that there is no cooperation from -uh- associations of persons powerful enough to provide top cover for the sale of the hijacked cargo.

Better communications, frequent security patrols and naval/private escorts for likely targets may be required to slow down these robbers.

Gulf of Guinea Pirates: Use of Private Armed Guards Restricted in Nigerian Waters

With a hat tip to Tanker Master, this report from the Gulf of Guinea - "Nigeria bans armed guards on merchant vessels" as reported by maritime security company Gulf of Aden Group Transits:

The latest security advisory for Nigeria issued by the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO) effectively renders the use of armed guards commercially placed on merchant vessels illegal and is highly likely to have major repercussions for the ship owner and the charterer should they be caught with un-authorized armed police or marine police on board says leading maritime security company GoAGT.

According to BIMCO there have been a number of ‘blue on blue’ incidents in the last six months and the industry as a whole is concerned about the safety of crew transiting the region. The warning comes exactly a month after a merchant vessel was boarded near Port Harcourt, which had its cargo stolen whilst the crew were held hostage, despite a Nigerian Naval vessel being in the vicinity.

Nick Davis, CEO of GoAGT, said: "BIMCO have taken a strong, proactive stance on this issue. The incident a month ago was entirely preventable with the use of an unarmed advisor and a good radar lookout. The crew were very lucky not to have suffered injury, had they been able to react quicker and retreated to the citadel the situation would have diffused quickly. The primary concern should be the safety of the personnel, theft in the Gulf of Guinea is unfortunately something ship owners and managers have to deal with, with an advisor on board vessels can avoid a hostage situation during a boarding."

He went on to say: "Merchant vessels approaching Nigeria from within the Gulf of Guinea must understand that the Nigerian Navy are the only authorized body to offer protection via escort vessels only, and not with armed guards on client vessels. The option for Joint Task Force or Police protection is only available within the riverine deltas and not on the high seas. There is a clear and present danger to the safety of the crew with the only effective solution being to employ an advisor who can safely get the crew to the citadel, which must be well-equipped with communications equipment.

"Currently the use of armed guards in the region falls into a legal grey area. Ship owners and managers being offered so-called 'authorised' armed protection within the Gulf of Guinea by Private Maritime Security Companies are well advised to seek advice from BIMCO, their flag state and the local Nigerian embassy or consulate for the latest advice and protocol prior to parting with money for a service that could have severe operational interruption to normal trading."

Nick Davis said: "There is no satisfactory way for managers and owners to perform due diligence on locally sourced guards. It has been reported in the past that incidents of product theft or kidnap have been targeted against vessels carrying guards. Due to the high risk of operating in this area, ship owners and managers must do all that is in their power to ensure the crew remain safe with thorough training, enhanced watch keeping and a well prepared plan of action in case of an incident."

Sure, Mr. Davis is looking for work for his company's advisers, but he makes excellent points about the "grayness" of the situation and the need for great care in planning port calls in Nigerian waters.

An alternative solution to the ban, is some sort of "non-corrupt" licensing program for local armed guards that might reduce the risk of the identified problems. On the other hand, we are talking Nigeria here.

Be very, very cautious. These are not issues of international waters but of Nigerian law.

I assume more ships will be loitering off the coast out beyond Nigerian territorial waters (and thus beyond the reach of Nigerian law) and making a dash for port when necessary. Armed guard teams in "barracks" vessels who can board and guard ships at sea and then be dropped off before the run in may be the ticket.

Iran and the Pirates of the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and so forth

What follows are a series of reports from FARS News, an Iranian news channel on the success of the Iranian Navy in fight pirates. Compare and contrast:

Oct 6, 2013: Navy Thwarts Pirate Attacks on Iranian Oil Tanker

An attempt by pirates to hijack an Iranian oil tanker in international waters was foiled by the timely action of the Iranian warships present in the region.

Lieutenant Commander of the Iranian Navy for Operations Admiral Siyavash Jarreh announced that the Navy's 27th fleet of warship saved the Iranian tanker from pirate attacks in the Gulf of Aden.

"The Iranian oil tanker was attacked by a pirate boat last night but their devilish act failed due to the timely action of the 27th flotilla of warships and the pirates fled the scene," he added.

Yet, the admiral said, the pirates returned after reinvigorating their forces on eight boats but the Iranian fleet of warships rushed to the scene and forced pirates to flee by staging successful defensive operations and a heavy firepower, he added.

"The Iranian oil tanker was escorted by the Navy flotilla through the waterway and it continued its path towards its destination fully safely," Jarreh said.

In relevant remarks late September, a senior Iranian Commander said that the Iranian fleets of warships deployed in the Gulf of Aden have escorted a total number of 1,538 cargo ships and oil tankers during their mission in the waterway.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran's Navy has escorted 1,538 cargo ships in the Gulf of Aden so far," Commander of the Iranian Army's 4th Naval Zone Admiral Khordad Hakimi told FNA in the Northern port city of Anzali.

He also said that pirates' attempts to hijack 112 cargo ships and oil tankers in international waters have been aborted due to the timely action of the Iranian warships deployed in the region.

Oct 12, 2013: Navy Repels Pirates' Attack on Iranian LNG Carrying Vessel:

An attempt by pirates to hijack an Iranian vessel carrying Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) near the Gulf of Aden off the coasts of Somalia, was foiled by the timely action of the Iranian warships present in the region.

Lieutenant Commander of the Iranian Navy for Operations Admiral Siyavash Jarreh said armed pirates on a speedboat attacked an Iranian vessel carrying LNG on Friday, but they had to flee after Iranian naval forces took swift action to repel their attack.

The commander added that the incident happened at Ras Al Mukalla near the Gulf of Aden.

He said the Iranian vessel, escorted by the Navy’s 27th fleet, safely continued with its journey.

On Sunday, Admiral Jarreh announced that the Navy's 27th fleet of warship saved the Iranian tanker from pirate attacks in the Gulf of Aden.

Yet, the admiral said, the pirates returned after reinvigorating their forces on eight boats but the Iranian fleet of warships rushed to the scene and forced pirates to flee by staging successful defensive operations and a heavy firepower.

"The Iranian oil tanker was escorted by the Navy flotilla through the waterway and it continued its path towards its destination fully safely," Admiral Jarreh said.

Oct 20, 2013: Iranian Navy Warships Repel Pirate Attack on LPG Vessel:

An attempt by pirates to hijack an Iranian vessel carrying Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG) near the Gulf of Aden off the coasts of Somalia, was foiled by the timely action of the Iranian warships present in the region, a Navy commander announced on Sunday, warning that pirate attacks against Iranian vessels have increased.

"This morning, the brave forces of the 27th fleet of warships succeeded in saving the LPG-carrying Iranian ship named BOOTANON after a few hours of clashes with the pirates," Lieutenant Commander of the Iranian Navy for Operations Admiral Siyavash Jarreh said on Sunday.

He said that the Iranian vessel was attacked by 8 pirate boats as it was passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, but the timely action of the Iranian flotilla of warships saved the vessel.

Jarreh voiced the concern that pirate attacks on Iranian vessels have recently increased in the Gulf of Aden.

In relevant remarks late September, Commander of the Iranian Army's 4th Naval Zone Admiral Khordad Hakimi told FNA in the Northern port city of Anzali, "The Islamic Republic of Iran's Navy has escorted 1,538 cargo ships in the Gulf of Aden so far."

He also said that pirates' attempts to hijack 112 cargo ships and oil tankers in international waters have been aborted due to the timely action of the Iranian warships deployed in the region.

Hakimi referred to the presence of the Iranian Navy's 27th flotilla of warships in the high seas to protect the country's cargo ships and oil tankers against pirates, and said the flotilla which is comprised of the Khark helicopter carrier and Sabalan destroyer has berthed in Sudan.

He called the Iranian Navy as an influential force, and said, "The Navy enjoys effective power in safeguarding domestic and international interests."

The Iranian Navy in August dispatched its 27th flotilla of warships to the high seas to protect the country's cargo ships and oil tankers against pirates.

Nov 10, 2013: Iranian Cargo Ships Rescued by Navy Warships in Gulf of Aden:

A number of cargo vessels voyaging the Gulf of Aden were saved from pirates’ attacks by the Iranian flotilla of warships deployed in the region, a Navy commander announced on Sunday.

“The pirates attacked the Iranian cargo ships in the Gulf of Aden in two stages during the last three days,” Lieutenant Commander of the Iranian Navy for Operations Admiral Siyavash Jarreh said.

“In the first stage, 12 speed boats belonging to the pirates, attacked Tour 2 oil tanker near the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea but they fled the scene after the timely action of the Navy’s special operational forces and the escort team,” he added.

Jarreh said that an Iranian oil tanker and a bulk carrier were also rescued yesterday and today, respectively by the swift reaction the Iranian warships and their heavy firepower.

Senior Iranian Navy commanders have said that they normally shoot warning shots to scare off pirates in such scenes since they do not intend to inflict casualties on them, adding that they have almost always been successful in doing so. "But we would take tougher action if we need to," they added.

In relevant remarks late September, Commander of the Iranian Army's 4th Naval Zone Admiral Khordad Hakimi told FNA in the Northern port city of Anzali, "The Islamic Republic of Iran's Navy has escorted 1,538 cargo ships in the Gulf of Aden so far."

He also said that pirates' attempts to hijack 112 cargo ships and oil tankers in international waters have been aborted due to the timely action of the Iranian warships deployed in the region.

Hakimi referred to the presence of the Iranian Navy's 27th flotilla of warships in the high seas to protect the country's cargo ships and oil tankers against pirates, and said the flotilla which is comprised of the Khark helicopter carrier and Sabalan destroyer has berthed in Sudan.

He called the Iranian Navy as an influential force, and said, "The Navy enjoys effective power in safeguarding domestic and international interests."

Jan 8, 2014: Navy Thwarts Pirate Attacks on Iranian Oil Tanker:

An attempt by pirates to hijack an Iranian oil tanker in international waters was foiled by the timely action of the Iranian warships present in the region.

Lieutenant Commander of the Iranian Navy for Operations Admiral Siyavash Jarreh announced on Wednesday that the Navy's 28th fleet of warship saved the Iranian tanker from pirate attacks in the Gulf of Aden.

"The Iranian oil tanker was attacked by 12 pirate boats this morning but they failed due to the timely action of the 28th flotilla of warships and the pirates fled the scene," he added.

The admiral underlined that the Iranian oil tanker was escorted by the Navy flotilla through the waterway and continued its path towards its destination fully safely.

In relevant remarks last month, a senior Iranian commander praised the exceptionally good performance of the country's naval forces for maintaining security to the international waters by escorting thousands of vessels in the high seas.

“In the last three years, around 3,000 cargo ships and oil tankers have been escorted by the Navy’s commandos and vessels,” Commander of the Iranian Navy’s Missile Program Admiral Ali Vafadar told FNA in December.

He also said that pirates' attempts to hijack 147 cargo ships and oil tankers in international waters have been aborted due to the timely action of the Iranian warships deployed in the region.

Vafadar said that the Iranian naval forces have also managed to seize control of a number of pirate boats and vessels, arrest their crews and transferred them to Iran to stand trial for their crimes.

Jan 10, 2014: Navy Thwarts Pirate Attack on Iranian Cargo Ship:

An attempt by pirates to hijack an Iranian cargo ship in international waters was foiled by the timely action of the Iranian warships present in the region.

“Iranian freighter came under attack in the Gulf of Aden on Thursday morning after several armed people on board eight boats approached the ship,” Senior Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Shahram Irani said.

Looks like a Spanish Galicia class LPD to me

The admiral noted that the pirates fled the scene when the Iranian Navy warships arrived there.

In a similar incident, the Navy saved an Iranian oil tanker in the Gulf of Aden.

Lieutenant Commander of the Iranian Navy for Operations Admiral Siyavash Jarreh announced on Wednesday that the Navy's 28th fleet of warship saved the Iranian tanker from pirate attacks in the Gulf of Aden.

"The Iranian oil tanker was attacked by 12 pirate boats this morning but they failed due to the timely action of the 28th flotilla of warships and the pirates fled the scene," he added.

The admiral underlined that the Iranian oil tanker was escorted by the Navy flotilla through the waterway and continued its path towards its destination fully safely.

In relevant remarks last month, a senior Iranian commander praised the exceptionally good performance of the country's naval forces for maintaining security to the international waters by escorting thousands of vessels in the high seas.

“In the last three years, around 3,000 cargo ships and oil tankers have been escorted by the Navy’s commandos and vessels,” Commander of the Iranian Navy’s Missile Program Admiral Ali Vafadar told FNA in December.(best part of this particular "article" is the use of the nearby photo to illustrate it - some of you might recognize that ship - and it is not Iranian)

Feb 22, 2014: Navy Thwarts Pirate Attacks on Iranian Trade Vessel in Red Sea:

An attempt by pirates to hijack an Iranian cargo vessel in international waters was foiled by the timely action of Iran’s warships present in the region.

Lieutenant Commander of the Iranian Navy for Operations Admiral Siyavash Jarreh announced on Saturday that the Navy’s 29th fleet of warships saved the Iranian trade vessel from pirate attacks in the Red Sea.

"The Iranian cargo vessel was attacked by 7 pirate boats this morning, but they failed due to the timely action of the 29th flotilla of warships, which made the pirates flee the scene," he added.

The Admiral underlined that the Iranian cargo ship was, then, escorted by the Navy flotilla through the waterway and continued its path towards its destination fully safely.

In relevant remarks in December, a senior Iranian commander praised the exceptionally good performance of the country’s naval forces for maintaining security to the international waters by escorting thousands of vessels in the high seas.

“In the last three years, around 3,000 cargo ships and oil tankers have been escorted by the Navy’s commandos and vessels,” Commander of the Iranian Navy’s Missile Program Admiral Ali Vafadar told FNA at the time.

He also said that pirates' attempts to hijack 147 cargo ships and oil tankers in international waters have been aborted due to the timely action of the Iranian warships deployed in the region.

Mar 4, 2014: Navy Thwarts Pirate Attack on Iranian Oil Tanker in Red Sea:

An attempt by pirates to hijack an Iranian oil tanker in international waters was foiled by the timely action of Iran’s warships present in the region.

Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari announced on Tuesday that the Navy’s 29th fleet of warships has saved the Iranian oil tanker from the pirate attacks in the Red Sea.

“Two groups of pirates who were attempting to attack an Iranian oil tanker in Bab El-Mandeb Strait faced the Navy’s 29th Flotilla which is present in the Red Sea and fled the scene,” Admiral Sayyari said.

The Admiral underlined that the Iranian oil tanker was, then, escorted by the Navy flotilla through the waterway and continued its path towards its destination fully safely.

Last month, Admiral Sayyari announced that his forces have foiled tens of attacks by international pirates on the country’s cargo ships and oil tankers.

He noted that the Iranian Navy warships have escorted some 2,000 merchant vessels and freighters in the same period.

In relevant remarks in December, a senior Iranian commander praised the exceptionally good performance of the country's naval forces for maintaining security to the international waters by escorting thousands of vessels in the high seas.

“In the last three years, around 3,000 cargo ships and oil tankers have been escorted by the Navy’s commandos and vessels,” Commander of the Iranian Navy’s Missile Program Admiral Ali Vafadar told FNA.

June 28, 2014: Iranian Warships Rescue Oil Tanker in Red Sea:

Iranian Navy warships rescued an oil tanker from a pirate attack in the Red Sea.

An Iranian oil tanker came under attack by eight pirate boats, but the vessel was rescued due to the timely action of the Iranian Navy warships, the Navy's Public Relations Office reported on Saturday.

The Iranian vessel was then escorted to a safe zone by the Iranian fleet.

The Iranian Navy has been conducting anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden since November 2008, when Somali raiders hijacked the Iranian-chartered cargo ship, MV Delight, off the coast of Yemen.

All photos from the FARS News Agency website. I highlighted some interesting -um- variations.

Gulf of Guinea Pirates: A Boko Haram Connection?

A CNN investigative report suggests there is in Kidnapped captain told ransoms may go to Boko Haram:

Yan St-Pierre, CEO of Modern Security Consulting Group, said his contacts believe Boko Haram, once confined strictly to the northern parts of Nigeria, is benefiting from the increase in piracy along the west coast of Africa. But the group is perhaps not directly carrying out the kidnappings itself.

"So when people are asking, is there a link between Boko Haram and piracy in Nigeria, it's not the one they usually expect it to be,'' said St-Pierre, whose firm was not involved in the Thomas case. "It's one that is not necessarily logistical and operational. It's one that is more subtle. Essentially they will probably provide personnel every now and then, but it's not a fixed structure. So we are talking more (about) providing means to wash the money, to clean it. To make sure the smuggling routes, personnel, sex slaves, drugs, weapons above all else, these pirates need weapons.

"So if Boko Haram provided the weapons in advance for example and said, 'Well we will get a cut of the ransom,' which is standard policy within these groups within the region in general, this would make absolute sense to say, well the ransom money that was paid for the captain ended up at the very least partially into Boko Haram's hands, quite probably as a payment for services delivered."

"Subtle" connections . . .

Saturday is Heinlein Quote Day #15

From Chapter 35 of The Puppet Masters

'... [T]he price of freedom is the willingness to do sudden battle anywhere, any time and with utter recklessness.'

See here and contemplate how it makes the cost of taking away freedom very high.

Or, as set out in another context: "A well regulated militia being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed."

Independence Day Video - War of Independence: History of the United States Navy (1956)

Happy 4th!

Disaster Prep Wednesday: Terrorist Hazards

There are all those natural disasters to prepare for - and disasters caused by accidents - but, sadly, there are also those events that can be caused by terrorists that we need to prepare for. At Ready.gov they call these "terrorist hazards" and list 6 potential threats:

1. Biological;
2. Chemical;
3. Cyber;
4. Explosions;
5. Nuclear Blast; and
6. Radiogical Dispersion Device

Preparation for all these begins with the basic disaster preparation steps:

Build an Emergency Supply Kit, which includes items like non-perishable food, water, a battery-powered or hand-crank radio, extra flashlights and batteries.
Make a Family Emergency Plan. Your family may not be together when disaster strikes, so it is important to know how you will contact one another, how you will get back together and what you will do in case of an emergency.

For biological and chemical acts, for the most part you want to shelter in place until an
"all clear" is given. HEPA filters can help screen out biologics. For chemical events, you will want to turn off that ventilation system and use duct tape and plastic sheeting from your emergency kit can help to seal doors and other air entry points until you get that "all clear":

If you are instructed to remain in your home or office building, you should:

- Close doors and windows and turn off all ventilation, including furnaces, air conditioners, vents, and fans.
- Seek shelter in an internal room and take your disaster supplies kit.
- Seal the room with duct tape and plastic sheeting.
- Listen to your radio for instructions from authorities.

Cyber attacks can run the gamut from those threatening national security to those that are most likely to affect you and your family:

Transportation, power, and other services may be disrupted by large scale cyber incidents. The extent of the disruption is highly uncertain as it will be determined by many unknown factors such as the target and size of the incident.

Photo by Christopher Mardorf

In such cases, many things not connected to the internet may continue to function normally (your car, for example) your lights, heat/air conditioning, water and other things may be impacted. Once again, that emergency kit is vital.

Most terrorist driven explosions will not be directed to individual dwellings but at place that can maximize the "terror effect" or damage infrastructure - which might include damaging power and water structures:

There can be significant numbers of casualties and/or damage to buildings and the infrastructure. So employers need up-to-date information about any medical needs you may have and on how to contact your designated beneficiaries.
- Heavy law enforcement involvement at local, state and federal levels follows a terrorist attack due to the event's criminal nature.
- Health and mental health resources in the affected communities can be strained to their limits, maybe even overwhelmed.
- Extensive media coverage, strong public fear and international implications and consequences can continue for a prolonged period.
- Workplaces and schools may be closed, and there may be restrictions on domestic and international travel.

Photo by Benjamin Crossley

- You and your family or household may have to evacuate an area, avoiding roads blocked for your safety.
- Clean-up may take many months.

In event of a nuclear blast, if you are in a safe place away from the blast, the best thing to do may be to shelter in place and await instructions:

- Stay where you are, even if you are separated from your family. Inside is the safest place for all people in the impacted area. It can save your life.
- During the time with the highest radiation levels it is safest to stay inside, sheltered away from the radioactive material outside.
- Radiation levels are extremely dangerous after a nuclear detonation but the levels reduce rapidly.
- Expect to stay inside for at least 24 hours unless told otherwise by authorities.

Got a workplace Emergency Supply Kit?

Radiological Dispersion Device (RDD)
Terrorist use of an RDD — often called “dirty nuke” or “dirty bomb” — is considered far more likely than use of a nuclear explosive device. An RDD combines a conventional explosive device — such as a bomb — with radioactive material. It is designed to scatter dangerous and sub-lethal amounts of radioactive material over a general area. Such RDDs appeal to terrorists because they require limited technical knowledge to build and deploy compared to a nuclear device. Also, the radioactive materials in RDDs are widely used in medicine, agriculture, industry and research, and are easier to obtain than weapons grade uranium or plutonium.

The primary purpose of terrorist use of an RDD is to cause psychological fear and economic disruption. Some devices could cause fatalities from exposure to radioactive materials. Depending on the speed at which the area of the RDD detonation was evacuated or how successful people were at sheltering-in-place, the number of deaths and injuries from an RDD might not be substantially greater than from a conventional bomb explosion.

Once in your shelter:

If you have time, turn off ventilation and heating systems, close windows, vents, fireplace dampers, exhaust fans, and clothes dryer vents. Retrieve your disaster supplies kit and a battery-powered radio and take them to your shelter room.

Seek shelter immediately, preferably underground or in an interior room of a building, placing as much distance and dense shielding as possible between you and the outdoors where the radioactive material may be.

Seal windows and external doors that do not fit snugly with duct tape to reduce infiltration of radioactive particles. Plastic sheeting will not provide shielding from radioactivity nor from blast effects of a nearby explosion.

Listen for official instructions and follow directions.

Saturday is Heinlein Quote Day #14

From Starship Troopers:

" . . . War is not violence and killing, pure and simple; war is controlled violence, for a purpose. The purpose of war is to support your government's decisions by force. The purpose is never to kill the enemy just to be killing him...but to make him do what you want to do. Not killing...but controlled and purposeful violence. But it's not your business or mine to decide the purpose of the control. It's never a soldier's business to decide when or where or how—or why—he fights; that belongs to the statesmen and the generals. The statesmen decide why and how much; the generals take it from there and tell us where and when and how. We supply the violence; other people—'older and wiser heads,' as they say—supply the control. Which is as it should be."

Which is a nice paraphrase of Clausewtiz

"War therefore is an act of violence to compel our opponent to fulfill our will"
and

"We see, therefore, that War is not merely a political act, but also a real political instrument, a continuation of political commerce, a carrying out of the same by other means. All beyond this which is strictly peculiar to War relates merely to the peculiar nature of the means which it uses. That the tendencies and views of policy shall not be incompatible with these means, the Art of War in general and the Commander in each particular case may demand, and this claim is truly not a trifling one. But however powerfully this may react on political views in particular cases, still it must always be regarded as only a modification of them; for the political view is the object, War is the means, and the means must always include the object in our conception. "

The last part is usually offered up as, "War is a mere continuation of policy by other means."

On Midrats 29 June 2014 - Episode 234: "Asking the right questions to build the right leaders"

Please join us at 5pm (U.S. EDT) on Sunday, 29 June 2014 for Midrats Episode 234: "Asking the right questions to build the right leaders":

Is the profession of arms, as the Navy believes it is, primarily a technical job for officers - or is it something else?

To create the cadre of leaders one needs, do you train them as empty vessels that one only needs to fill up with what you want or an empty checklist to complete - or do you train them by helping them bring out their ability to lead and make decisions through informed critical thinking?

Our guest for the full hour to discuss this and more will be Major Matt Cavanaugh, USA. Matt is currently assigned as an Assistant Professor in military strategy at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point.

Prior to this assignment, Matt was a Strategic Planner at the Pentagon, after service with the with Second Squadron, Third Armored Cavalry Regiment with multiple deployments to Iraq from Fallujah, Ramadi, and Tal’Afar.

Matt earned his Master’s in Strategic Studies at Victoria University in Wellington, New Zealand and is currently at work on a PhD dissertation on generalship at the University of Reading (UK). He is a Fellow at the Center for the Study of Civil Military Operations, has been published with several peer-reviewed military and academic journals, and is the Editor at WarCouncil.org, a site dedicated to the study of the use of force. Matt has represented the United States in an official capacity in ten countries, including: Iraq, Kuwait, Norway, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Latvia, and Great Britain.

Matt is the author of the blog essays Ten Questions West Point Does Not Ask Cadets - But Should, Another Ten Questions West Point Does Not Ask Cadets - But Should, and What Cadets Should Study - and Why Military History is Not Enough.

Join us live at 5pm (U.S. EDT) on Sunday, 29 June 2014 or pick up the show later by clicking here.

Friday Fun Film: Operation Deep Freeze (1957)

Exploring Antarctica . . . the logistics force supporting the effort:

Operation Deep Freeze was a massive scientific expedition to Antarctica which began in 1955.

Some of us remember when the U.S. Navy had ice breakers. And AOGs and YOGs.

I wonder what the environmental impact statement would look like today . . .

Should there be a "cost-benefit analysis of fighting maritime piracy? The Government Accountability Office says it might be a good idea in its report "MARITIME SECURITY Ongoing U.S. Counterpiracy Efforts Would Benefit From Agency Assessments"

664268

If you are looking for humor of a sort, you might look at the following table:

I would suggest that the difference in the "Pirate response to armed security teams" between the Horn of Africa and Gulf of Guinea has a great deal to do with the variation in the quality of the private security teams between the two areas. So ... just sayin'  - there are many kinds of "cost effectiveness."
Hat tip to USNI News.

Disaster Prep Wednesday: Lightning Safety Awareness Week: June 22-28, 2014

Summer begins - people are outdoors more and so it's time for Lightning Safety Awareness Week: June 22-28, 2014:

Summer is the peak season for one of the nation's deadliest weather phenomena--lightning. Though lightning strikes peak in summer, people are struck year round. In the United States, an average of 51 people are killed each year by lightning, and hundreds more are severely injured.

Of course, in 2012, 34,000 people died in car wrecks, so 51 is, relatively speaking, not a big number.

On the other hand, as the logic goes, it matters a lot to those 51 and their loved ones.

The main thing is to be safe - so far in 2014, 7 people have been killed by lightning:

What lessons can be learned from these deaths? If it is thundering and there is lightning about, it is a really, really good idea to get inside and away from lakes, trees, roof tops and open places. As The National Weather Service says,

That's Leon the Lion (lions roar, you see, so ...)

So, where are the high risk areas?

Lightning Deaths U.S. 2004- 2013

You can draw your own conclusions about where the danger lurks.

NWS also has a good web page on how lightning can get at you here (those images on the right and below came from there). Explanations at that link.

So far as I have been able to
research things, no one has ever been killed while taking a shower in a building or while in a bath tub inside or talking on a wired phone. Your research may vary and I look forward to seeing it.

However, the NWS offers these shelter safety tips here that warn against using a corded phone or showering, so what do I know?

The point is - get under cover. Be safe.

You don't want to be a statistic.

People Smugglers: US Coast Guard Rescues and Repatriates Migrants from Haiti

Poor and desperate people who are taken advantage of by thugs. So, the U.S. Coast Guard has to spring into action - a sad response to a failed country's mess. Reported by the Coast Guard News as "Smugglers force migrants into the sea in attempt to avoid interdiction":

The Coast Guard repatriated 43 Haitian migrants Wednesday from two separate interdictions in the Mona Passage, including a pair of migrants who had to be rescued after they were forced into the water by smugglers attempting to avoid interdiction at sea.

The Coast Guard Cutter Confidence repatriated the migrants to Haiti Wednesday.

On Friday a group of 19 migrants was detected by a Coast Guard aircraft west of Mona Island, Puerto Rico. Coast Guard Sector San Juan diverted the Coast Guard Cutter Key Largo to interdict the migrant vessel and informed federal law enforcement partner agencies.

Upon the cutter Key Largo’s arrival on scene, the smugglers, in an attempt to flee the area and avoid interdiction, allegedly threatened the migrants onboard and forced two Haitians, including a minor, overboard without life jackets. The crew of the Key Largo rescued the two Haitians and continued to pursue the suspect vessel.

During the pursuit, a patrolling U.S. Customs and Border Protection Office of Air and Marine Operations aircraft was able to maintain surveillance of the fleeing vessel until it was relieved by a Coast Guard HC-144 Maritime Patrol aircraft deployed to Puerto Rico from Coast Guard Air Station Miami.

The suspected smugglers were later apprehended by Dominican Republic law enforcement authorities.

“This incident demonstrates just how ruthless smugglers are. They have no regard for human life and are only seeking to profit from this illicit activity,” said Lt. Daniel E. Stepler, Coast Guard Cutter Key Largo commanding officer.

The other 24 Haitian migrants were interdicted four days earlier by Coast Guard Cutter Drummond approximately 13 miles west of Mona Island. Two suspected smugglers were apprehended and turned over to law enforcement authorities in Puerto Rico for further investigation.

Hanging from a yardarm might be a good idea for those smugglers. Attempted murder charges at least.

How bad is the problem? "Coast Guard Repatriates 56 Migrants to Cap Haitien, Haiti and Bahia de Cabañas, Cuba":

The Coast Guard repatriated 25 Haitian migrants to Cap Haitien, Haiti, and 31 Cuban migrants to Bahia de Cabañas, Cuba, Tuesday.

These repatriations are a result of five separate attempts to illegally migrate to the United States.

On June 9, 2014, the Coast Guard Cutter Drummond interdicted 25 Haitian migrants on a yola vessel west of Mona Island, Puerto Rico. The migrants were transferred to the Coast Guard Cutter Tahoma and then to the Coast Guard Cutter Confidence for repatriation to Haiti.
C
The following Friday, three separate interdictions totaling 31 migrants took place in the Florida Straits. The crews of Coast Guard Station Key West, Florida, Coast Guard Station Marathon, Florida, the Coast Guard Cutter Sawfish and Coast Guard Cutter Key Largo interdicted the migrants and safely removed them from their unseaworthy vessels.

All the migrants interdicted were transferred to the Coast Guard Cutters Knight Island and Confidence for repatriation.

“The Coast Guard and our partner agencies continue to diligently patrol the waters around the United States to deter illegal migrant activity,” said Capt. Mark Fedor, chief of response enforcement. “Our main concern is the safety of life at sea. When migrants put their lives in the hands of smugglers, or take to the sea aboard unseaworthy vessels, they put their lives at grave risk.”

Once aboard a Coast Guard cutter all migrants receive food, water, shelter, and basic medical attention.

Crewmembers from the Coast Guard Cutter Key Largo rescue a Haitian migrant from the water west of Mona Island, Puerto Rico, Friday. U.S. Coast Guard photo.

Maritime Crime Threat: People Smugglers at Sea

There ought to be a special level of hell for the people who engage in the sea smuggling of people for profit. Ruthless hardly covers it.

See here:

Smuggling of Migrants is a crime involving the procurement for financial or other material benefit of illegal entry of a person into a State of which that person is not a national or resident. Migrant smuggling affects almost every country in the world. It undermines the integrity of countries and communities, and costs thousands of people their lives every year.

Reuters report: "Overloaded boat sinks off Malaysia, 34 Indonesians missing, three dead":

An overloaded boat carrying suspected illegal Indonesian immigrants sank as it left Malaysia's west coast early on Wednesday, and at least three passengers drowned and 34 were missing.

The boat, whose passengers included women and children, sank at the mouth of a river shortly after midnight as it left Malaysia's Carey Island, likely bound for Indonesia's Sumatra island, officials and witnesses said.

Police said the boat lacked safety equipment such as life jackets, but that rescuers were still holding out hope of finding more survivors. The boat went down in shallow water close to shore.

"It is likely that survivors could have swum ashore and went into hiding since they have no legal documents here," said Mohammed Hambali Yaakup, head of operations in the area for the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency (MMEA).

Hambali said he could not confirm reports that a people-smuggling gang had been involved with the boat. All 60 survivors have been arrested under immigration laws, he said.

This problem is not limited to Asia - as noted in this BBC report, "On Italy's immigration front line":

Record numbers of immigrants have been arriving in the country this year. Arriving from the south, from Africa. Since the start of 2013 some 10,000 have landed every month, a growing number of them picked up by the Italian navy.

When 366 people died off the Italian island of Lampedusa last October, as the boat carrying them sank, Italy decided to deploy its maritime forces to prevent more deaths. They called the operation "Mare Nostrum" - Our Sea.

It's taking a toll on the country's finances, and on its immigration centres, which are filling up at an alarming rate.

It's also putting pressure on other European countries to share the burden, but there's increasing political pressure within many of those countries to limit immigration.

Few countries could handle 10,000 new immigrants per month, especially those arriving without any useful skills or funds to set themselves up in a new location.

Too bad the home countries of these migrants are such hellholes that any escape, even in the hands of hardened criminals, seem like the best of all the bad choices available. Since it seems that so many women and children are involved, it seems even worse.

Midrats 22 June 14 - Episode 233: "Global Combat Fleet Development With Eric Wertheim"

Please join us today on Midrats at 5pm Eastern (U.S. EDT) for Episode 233: Global Combat Fleet Development With Eric Wertheim:

From the USA, Europe, Russia, to the South China Sea, nations continue to signal where their priories are by what type of fleet they are building.

What capabilities are they expanding, and what capabilities are they letting drift away?

To discuss this and more for the full hour will be returning guest Eric Wertheim.

Eric is a defense consultant, columnist and author specializing in naval and maritime issues. He was named to the helm of the internationally acknowledged, one volume Naval Institute reference Combat Fleets of the World in 2002.

Join us live at 5pm or pick the show up later by clicking here.

Saturday is Heinlein Quote Day #13

From Robert Heinlein's Rocket Ship Galileo

“There is a world of difference, under the laws of free men, between an unprovoked attack and striking back in your own defense. If a footpad assaults you in a dark alley, you don’t have to get a court order to fight back.”

Good time to remember that.

Friday Fun Film: War with Iraq (Desert Storm Portion)

The war in the Middle East:




An over-reaching dictator. Twelve years later he was fixed and the Iraqis given a chance.

The Navy was there. The Navy is still there.

Strategy: Naval War College: Current Strategy Forum 2014 (in part)

From the DVIDS site, videos of the 2014 Current Strategy Forum held at the Naval War College:

The videos are posted here

As noted on the DVIDS site:

This year marks the 65th annual Current Strategy Forum (CSF) at the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island. The first CSF was held on May 9, 1949 under the title “Round Table Talks.” This event offers an opportunity for the nation’s public servants, scholars, and senior military officers to join the College faculty and students to discuss the future strategy of the United States.

Yes, any word you misspell will always be in the post title.

UPDATED to put in link directly to DVIDS page.

South China Sea Pirates? Another small tanker goes missing in the SCS

 According to the Norwegian Maritime Authority, there is another Missing vessel in the South China Sea

1. IFC received information from Company that they have lost communication with their Indonesia Flag Product Tanker "ARSENAL" at the South China Sea.
The details are as follows:2. Vessel details:Name: ARSENAL (Product Tanker)IMO: 7620964Flag: IndonesiaType: Product TankerCompany: Global Marine TransportLPOC: Eastern OPLNPOC: VietnamLast Known Position; 01 31N 104 29E (020 HBL 12nm) at 17 0745H Jun 14.
3. Incident details: Company lost communication with the Product Tank since 17 0745H Jun 14. Product Tanker "ARSENAL" is manned by 12 Indonesia. "ARSENAL" is carrying "MOGAS" as her cargo. ARENSAL accompanied by a tug named Pawai.

Hat tip to Lars H. Bergqvist

All images from here.

UPDATE: See New Threat to Small Tankers in SE Asia from The Maritime Executive.

South China Sea Pirates: Another Tanker Robbed of Cargo Fuel

Ai Maru with Malaysian MMEA vessel alongside

Reported in the New Sabah Times:

The Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency (MMEA) has confirmed that pirates seized about 700,000 litres of diesel worth RM1.4 million from an oil tanker, ‘MT Ai Maru’ on Saturday night, about 31 nautical miles off Timur Tanjung Sedili, Johor.

MMEA deputy director general (Operations), Datuk Mohd Puzi Ab Kahar said the agency was investigating whether it was an “inside job” ....
***
Mohd Puzi said the tanker was located at 3.20 am yesterday and an inspection found that the crew and captain were unharmed.

“According to the crew, the pirates pumped out the fuel in three hours into another ship which they could not identify.

“The captain claimed the crew were confined in a room while he was ordered by the pirates who were armed with machetes and pistols to steer the ship. He could not ascertain the nationality of the culprits who later fled towards the nearby islands such as Pulau Andalas in Indonesia or Pulau Aur,” he said.

These pirates are good. Too good to be anything other than a well-organized gang.

Circled area is vicinity of hijacking

Must be good money in it.