We live in a crowded world with limited resources. What happens when this meets modern technology's ability to shorten the time/distance equation and increase the ability to know of what lies below the waves?Join us live if you can (or pick the show up later) by clicking here. You can also pick the show up later (along with previous epsiodes) from our iTunes page here or from our Stitcher page here.
What complications do we fine when the above two points meet up with the eternal search by growing nations to reach for the seas to support their homeland's growing needs?
As populations demand more protein in their diets as per capita incomes rise, many nations see the open seas as the best place to fill that demand. With more competing for shrinking resources, can fishing be seen as a security threat? How does it impact coastal states' economic, food, and environmental security? What are the roles of transnational organized crime and state power in this competition. Is international law being strengthened to meet this challenge, or is the challenge undermining the rule of law? More than last century's quaint "Cod Wars," does this have the potential trigger to broader, more serious conflict?
Our guest to discuss this and more will be Scott Cheney-Peters, LT, USNR.
Scott serves as a civil servant on the staff of the Chief of Naval Operations, and is the founder of the Center for International Maritime Security (CIMSEC).
Scott's active duty service at sea included the USS Fitzgerald (DDG 62) and USS Oak Hill (LSD 41). His shore duty before leaving active service was in Washington, DC, where he served as the editor of Surface Warfare magazine.
Scott graduated from Georgetown University with a B.A. in English and Government and holds an M.A. in National Security and Strategic Studies from the U.S. Naval War College. Scott researches issues affecting Asian maritime security and national security applications of emerging technology.
"We must be ready to dare all for our country. For history does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or the timid. We must acquire proficiency in defense and display stamina in purpose." - President Eisenhower, First Inaugural Address
VertRep
Saturday, August 13, 2016
On Midrats 14 August 2016 - Episode 345: Fisheries as a Strategic Maritime Resource
Please join us for a live show at 5pm EDT (US) on 14 August 2016 for Midrats Episode 345: Fisheries as a Strategic Maritime Resource
Saturday Is Old Radio Day: The Sealed Book - "Devil Island"
About The Sealed Book:
The Sealed Book was a radio series of mystery and terror tales, produced and directed by Jock MacGregor for the Mutual network. Between March 18 and September 9, 1945, the melodramatic anthology series was broadcast on Sundays from 10:30pm to 11:00pm.From that short-lived series, here's "Devil Island" -
Each week, after "the sound of the great gong," host Philip Clarke observed that the mysteriously silent "keeper of the book has opened the ponderous door to the secret vault wherein is kept the great sealed book, in which is recorded all the secrets and mysteries of mankind through the ages, Here are tales of every kind, tales of murder, of madness, of dark deeds strange and terrible beyond all belief."
Friday, August 12, 2016
Friday Film: "Story of a Naval Gunfire Mission" (1968)
Heavy gun cruiser USS Newport News (CA 148) uses its 8" guns in a fire support mission off Vietnam circa 1968. Posted on YouTube by Dexter Goad.
Newport News had the call sign of "Thunder" which was very appropriate. Seemed like they always had some guy with a deep voice on the radio answering your call by saying "This is Thunder, over." James Earl Jones had nothing on those guys.
USS Pyro (AE-24) rearmed her any number of times following the "Easter Invasion" of 1972. There was a special effort made to make sure that ammo for the big guns was kept near the gun line - so ammo ships (AEs, AORs and AOEs) carrying it always transferred it to another ammo ship before or during transiting back to Subic Bay.
Sadly, during that year there was an explosion in her #2 turret and 20 young lives ended. Nice article behind the USNI paywall at 2012's "Fire in Turret Two! "commemorating the 40th anniversary of the incident:
Newport News had the call sign of "Thunder" which was very appropriate. Seemed like they always had some guy with a deep voice on the radio answering your call by saying "This is Thunder, over." James Earl Jones had nothing on those guys.
USS Pyro (AE-24) rearmed her any number of times following the "Easter Invasion" of 1972. There was a special effort made to make sure that ammo for the big guns was kept near the gun line - so ammo ships (AEs, AORs and AOEs) carrying it always transferred it to another ammo ship before or during transiting back to Subic Bay.
Sadly, during that year there was an explosion in her #2 turret and 20 young lives ended. Nice article behind the USNI paywall at 2012's "Fire in Turret Two! "commemorating the 40th anniversary of the incident:
A complete inquiry, conducted by retired Vice Admirals K. S. Masterson and L. M. Mustin a month later, identified the cause of the explosion to be a defective auxiliary detonating fuse, which had prematurely fired. The fuse’s manufacturer, the Bermite Powder Company, and the commands responsible for quality control and testing—the Defense Contract Administration Services and Naval Ordnance Systems Command—were named as responsible parties. The investigation report noted that the Navy’s diffused organizational structure at the time vested authority and accountability for ordnance in multiple commanders, and the authors recommended that the Naval Ordnance Systems Command be given subsequent control over all ordnance matters, including design, procurement, testing, and life-cycle technical control. The authors also criticized the standard practice of inspection sampling and recommended 100-percent inspections at several successive phases of manufacture and assembly.
Thursday, August 11, 2016
UAVs for Everyone: Navy Deploys Small UAV to Ships
Seapower magazine reports U.S. Navy Deploying Newly Designated RQ-20B AeroVironment Puma AE:
A 15km range seems short for ship ops. On the other hand . . . it might meet certain needs in other ops. As in this interesting bit from here:
The U.S. Navy has tested and deployed the AeroVironment RQ-20B Puma smallMore info from the manufacturer:unmanned aircraft system (UAS) aboard a Flight I Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, the company announced in an Aug. 11 release. Some of these exercises included the use of AeroVironment’s fully autonomous system to recover the aircraft aboard a ship. The U.S. Navy issued a report on Aug. 3 from the Arabian Gulf describing how Puma AE is also being utilized on Navy patrol craft.
AeroVironment image
Following completion of a Puma AE intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance mission, the AeroVironment Precision Recovery System provides for the autonomous on-board recovery of the aircraft, without interrupting the ship’s operations. Because the Puma AE is also designed to land and float in water, operators can choose to recover it from the ocean, should mission requirements dictate.
The AeroVironment Precision Recovery System occupies a small footprint and can be managed and operated by members of a ship’s crew, as opposed to requiring external contractors. It is transported in tactical packaging that can be hand-carried aboard and readily transferred from one ship to another.
“Our Precision Recovery System expands the capability of Puma AE to support maritime operations,” Kirk Flittie, vice president and general manager of AeroVironment’s Unmanned Aircraft Systems business segment, said in the release. “This solution also builds on AeroVironment’s extensive operational experience with small UAS to provide the Navy with a low-cost, hand-launched capability optimized for contested environments. Puma AE’s ability to operate from a wide variety of surface vessels ensures rapid response reconnaissance capabilities that help our customers operate more safely and effectively and proceed with certainty.”
The Puma AE (All Environment) is a small unmanned aircraft system (UAS) designed for land based and maritime operations. Capable of landing in the water or on land, the Puma AE empowers the operator with an operational flexibility never before available in the small UAS class.
The Puma AE is durable with a reinforced fuselage construction, man portable for ease of mobility and requires no auxiliary equipment for launch or recovery operations. The system is quiet to avoid detection and operates autonomously, providing persistent intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and targeting data (ISRT).
The Puma AE delivers 3.5+ hours of flight endurance, with versatile smart battery options to support diverse mission requirements. Its powerful propulsion system and aerodynamic design make it efficient and easy to launch, especially in high altitudes and hotter climates. A plug and play power adapter is provided for easy integration of future extended endurance options, such as, solar and fuel cell solutions.
It carries both an electro-optical (EO) and infrared (IR) camera plus illuminator on a lightweight mechanical gimbaled payload, allowing the operator to keep “eyes on target.” For increased payload capacity, an optional under wing Transit Bay is available for easy integration of 3rd party payloads such as communications relay, geo locations, or laser marker to meet the diverse needs of military or civilian applications.
The precision navigation system with secondary GPS provides greater positional accuracy and reliability of the Puma AE. The UAV is operated from AeroVironment’s battle proven ground control station (GCS) with a communications range of 15 km.
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| MShip image |
The UK tested ISR packages compatible with the Puma AE on board the M80 Stiletto trials ship in November 2014 under Capability Demonstration 15-1.
Biden's Opinion on Where U.S. Foreign Affairs Stand
The least relevant voice in an out-going administration calls the future "Building on Success" of the Obama foreign policy:
But, you know, read the Biden piece and decide for yourself.
The next administration will take the reins of American foreign policy in a world that is more complex than at any point in our modern history, including the twilight of the Cold War and the years that followed the 9/11 attacks. But it is also the case that despite the proliferation of threats and challenges—some old, some new—by almost any measure, we are stronger and more secure today than when President Barack Obama and I took office in January 2009. Because of our investments at home and engagement overseas, the United States is primed to remain the world’s preeminent power for decades to come. In more than 40 years of public service, I have never been more optimistic about America’s future—if only we continue to lead.I would like to think this is true, but I find myself more in agreement with former SecDef Robert Gates in his book Duty as set out in the WaPo
...[F]ormer defense secretary Robert Gates, in his memoir “Duty,” lashed out at Vice President Biden as being “wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades.”
But, you know, read the Biden piece and decide for yourself.
Wednesday, August 10, 2016
South China Sea: Vietnam Moves to Protect Its Interests
If you are shocked by this, you haven't been paying attention.
Reuters reports Exclusive: Vietnam moves new rocket launchers into disputed South China Sea
I expect China will counter with its own equipment escalation.
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose
Reuters reports Exclusive: Vietnam moves new rocket launchers into disputed South China Sea
Vietnam has discreetly fortified several of its islands in the disputed South China Sea with new mobile rocket launchers capable of striking China's runways and military installations across the vital trade route, according to Western officials.Nature and threatened states will move to fill a vacuum. I guess Vietnam lacks confidence that the recent arbitration ruling concerning the SCS has any kind of enforcement mechanism.
Diplomats and military officers told Reuters that intelligence shows Hanoi has shipped the launchers from the Vietnamese mainland into position on five bases in the Spratly islands in recent months, a move likely to raise tensions with Beijing.
I expect China will counter with its own equipment escalation.
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose
Tuesday, August 09, 2016
Returning from Vacation
I don't know about you, but to me the worst working day of the year is the day you get back from vacation. So many things to catch up with. So many things people seem to think you ought to care about . . .
Meanwhile, in your mind there is that simple place in the woods where those "big city" daily cares seem to vanish as the sun and stars appear and disappear as the the earth revolves without any demand input from us. Birds, bees, cows and playing in the stream . . . fog and rain in the mountains as a backdrop. Twenty degrees cooler up there, too. Wondering about the toughness of our ancestors and their quality of life in those days gone by.
Of course, pining for the "olden days" ignores the modern miracles that keep most of us alive and healthy.
Still, there is something about a rocking chair on the front porch that calls to me.
There is that Keith Urban/Monty Powell song "Days Go By,"
So, how are you spending your days?
Meanwhile, in your mind there is that simple place in the woods where those "big city" daily cares seem to vanish as the sun and stars appear and disappear as the the earth revolves without any demand input from us. Birds, bees, cows and playing in the stream . . . fog and rain in the mountains as a backdrop. Twenty degrees cooler up there, too. Wondering about the toughness of our ancestors and their quality of life in those days gone by.
Of course, pining for the "olden days" ignores the modern miracles that keep most of us alive and healthy.
Still, there is something about a rocking chair on the front porch that calls to me.
There is that Keith Urban/Monty Powell song "Days Go By,"
Days go by
I can feel 'em flying
Like a hand out the window in the wind as the cars go by
It's all we've been given
So you better start livin' right now
'Cause days go by
So, how are you spending your days?
Saturday, August 06, 2016
Saturday Is Old Radio Day: Tom Corbett, Space Cadet "Trial in Space" (1952)
About
Part 1
Part 2
Inspirational music:
I should note that Heinlein's Space Cadet, which seems to have been, in some part, a source for the show was probably my favorite book when I was a kid.
Tom Corbett is the main character in a series of Tom Corbett — Space Cadet stories that were depicted in television, radio, books, comic books, comic strips, and other media in the 1950s.Here's two parter, "Trial in Space"-
The stories followed the adventures of Corbett, Astro, originally Roger Manning and later T.J. Thistle, cadets at the Space Academy as they train to become members of the Solar Guard. The action takes place at the Academy in classrooms and bunkrooms, aboard their training ship the rocket cruiser Polaris, and on alien worlds, both within the solar system and in orbit around nearby stars.
Part 1
Part 2
Inspirational music:
I should note that Heinlein's Space Cadet, which seems to have been, in some part, a source for the show was probably my favorite book when I was a kid.
Friday, August 05, 2016
Friday Fun Film: "Amphibious Operations: Ship to Shore Vertical Envelopment"
I think I slept through this at some point in my youth -
Monday, August 01, 2016
Do-It-Yourself Strategic Analysis: Sun Tzu and the South China Sea
Here's your chance to see if you can play strategist - a "do-it-yourself" strategic analysis, if you will.
The question before you is, "What is the applicability, if any, of Sun Tzu's The Art of War to the events unfolding in the South China Sea?"
The link contained in the question will take you to a good translation of Sun Tzu's work.
Of some interest to you might be the following, but there may be others that you may find more interesting to discuss:
Other possible questions: Alliances and allies? What about the strength of the Chinese economy in the region? What are the limitations of China's resources both in food and fuel? Who has greater issues with time and distance?
Just some things worth pondering. Have fun with it.
The question before you is, "What is the applicability, if any, of Sun Tzu's The Art of War to the events unfolding in the South China Sea?"
The link contained in the question will take you to a good translation of Sun Tzu's work.
Of some interest to you might be the following, but there may be others that you may find more interesting to discuss:
[2.08] ". . . I have heard of military campaigns that were clumsy but swift, but I have never seen military campaigns that were skilled but protracted. No nation has ever benefited from protracted warfare.Another useful short version of this advice at Eric Jackson's Sun Tzu's 31 Best Pieces Of Leadership Advice:
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[03.02] Therefore, to achieve a hundred victories in a hundred battles is not the highest excellence; to subjugate the enemy's army without doing battle is the highest of excellence.
[03.03] Therefore, the best warfare strategy is to attack the enemy's plans, next is to attack alliances, next is to attack the army, and the worst is to attack a walled city.
***
[04.04] One takes on sufficiency defending, one takes on deficiency attacking."
***
[05.14] Therefore, those skilled in moving the enemy use formation that makes the enemy respond.
[05.15] They offer bait that which the enemy must take, manipulating the enemy to move while they wait in ambush.
***
[05.14] Therefore, those skilled in moving the enemy use formation that makes the enemy respond.
[05.15] They offer bait that which the enemy must take, manipulating the enemy to move while they wait in ambush.
***
[06.01] Generally the one who first occupies the battlefield awaiting the enemy is at ease; the one who comes later and rushes into battle is fatigued.
[06.02] Therefore those skilled warfare move the enemy, and are not moved by the enemy.
[06.03] Getting the enemy to approach on his own accord is a matter of showing him advantage; stopping him from approaching is a matter of showing him harm.
***
[06.12] Therefore, if we want to do battle, even if the enemy is protected by high walls and deep moats, he cannot but do battle, because we attack what he must rescue. If we do not want to do battle, even if we merely draw a line on the ground, he will not do battle, because we divert his movements.
***
[06.17] If the enemy prepares to defend many places, then his forces will be few in number.
[06.18] Therefore, if the enemy prepares to defend the front, the back will be weak. If he prepares to defend the back, the front will be weak. If he prepares to defend the left, the right will be weak. If he prepares to defend the right, the left will be weak. If he prepares to defend everywhere, everywhere will be weak.
[06.19] The few are those preparing to defend against others, the many are those who make others prepare to defend against them.
[06.20] Therefore, if one knows the place of battle and the day of battle, he can march a thousand kilometers and do battle.
[06.21] If one does not know the place of battle and the day of battle, then his left cannot aid his right, his right cannot aid his left, his front cannot aid his back, and his back cannot aid his front.
[06.22] How much less so if he is separated by tens of kilometers, or even a few kilometers.
***
08.09] Therefore, subjugate the neighboring rulers with potential disadvantages, labor the neighboring rulers with constant matters, and have the neighboring rulers rush after advantages.
***
[11.17] Ask: If the enemy is large in number and advances, what should be the response? I say: Seize what he values, and he will do what you wish.
When strong, avoid them. If of high morale, depress them. Seem humble to fill them with conceit. If at ease, exhaust them. If united, separate them. Attack their weaknesses. Emerge to their surprise.You might also consider how the development of anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM)("carrier killers") affects strategy. Are they like mine warfare? Along the lines of, "How many mines does it take to close a port? Answer: Perhaps none because the threat of a mined port may be enough to delay or deny its use." How much time, money and planning is required to counter the threat of ASBMs? Is that a strategic weakness?
All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.
Other possible questions: Alliances and allies? What about the strength of the Chinese economy in the region? What are the limitations of China's resources both in food and fuel? Who has greater issues with time and distance?
Just some things worth pondering. Have fun with it.
Saturday, July 30, 2016
Saturday Is Old Radio Day: Bright Star with Fred MacMurray and Irene Dunn in "The Oil Swindle" (1952)
About
Bright Star (aka The Irene Dunne-Fred MacMurray Show) was a 30-minute syndicated radio comedy-drama broadcast in 1952-53.
The storyline followed the misadventures of Hillsdale Morning Star editor Susan Armstrong (Irene Dunne) and her idealistic ace reporter George Harvey (Fred MacMurray) as they attempted to keep the struggling newspaper in business despite continual financial problems.
Friday, July 29, 2016
Drawing Red Lines: North Korea Tells Us It's at War with Us
Gotta love people who draw red lines, as in North Korea: U.S. "crossed the red line," effectively declared war
I don't see any reference to a "sea of fire," though.
Surprising, given this.
If only.North Korea's top diplomat for U.S. affairs told The Associated Press on Thursday that Washington "crossed the red line" and effectively declared war by putting leader Kim Jong Un on its list of sanctioned individuals, and said a vicious showdown could erupt if the U.S. and South Korea hold annual war games as planned next month.
***
Han said North Korea believes the nature of the maneuvers has become openly aggressive because they reportedly now include training designed to prepare troops for the invasion of the North's capital and "decapitation strikes" aimed at killing its top leadership.
I don't see any reference to a "sea of fire," though.
Surprising, given this.
Wednesday, July 27, 2016
Department of Old Ideas Revisited: Airship Aircraft - er- Drone Carriers?
Seems like every now and then the "airship" (read as "blimp" or "dirigible") idea gets dusted off and someone proposes a great new use for them - as reported in this Aviation Week article proposing their use as "drone carriers" - Airship Carriers Could Extend Smaller UAS Capabilities :
The comments to the article are very much worth reading.
The above-referenced conference presentation, "Lighter-Than-Air (LTA) “AirStation” - Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Carrier Concept," is here.
I think we've seen this movie before:
Some ideas just never seem to get old - planes carrying planes:
The capability of small unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) continues to increase, as payloads become even smaller yet more powerful. But these aircraft have one disadvantage—range. “With the ranges we are looking at in the Pacific Theater, how do we get our small UAS to the fight?” asked DARPA Deputy Director Steve Walker at a recent conference in Washington.I've blogged about the "Gremlin" program before at Gremlins? Really? Retrievable and Reuseable UAVs to Add to Air Mission Packages
DARPA’s answer is its Gremlins program, which seeks to develop a means of using existing large aircraft, transports or bombers, to launch and recover swarms of small UAS that would then cooperate to perform missions in contested airspace.
Another concept, presented by Science Applications International Corp. (SAIC) and ArcXeon at the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) Aviation 2016 conference in Washington in June, is the AirStation, an airship that acts as an airborne carrier for UAS. In addition to military missions, the developers say the concept could support commercial package delivery operations.
The comments to the article are very much worth reading.
The above-referenced conference presentation, "Lighter-Than-Air (LTA) “AirStation” - Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Carrier Concept," is here.
I think we've seen this movie before:
Some ideas just never seem to get old - planes carrying planes:
Touch and Go
I grew up on Air Force bases, so jet noise and seeing touch-and-go training was once old hat to me.
When the pilot is related, however, well ----
Gosh, I remember him learning to drive a car . . . wasn't that just yesterday?
Where does the time go?
When the pilot is related, however, well ----
Gosh, I remember him learning to drive a car . . . wasn't that just yesterday?
Where does the time go?
Tuesday, July 26, 2016
The Legitimacy of Elections and Voter ID Laws
As we approach the 2016 elections - after a Democratic Party primary season now thought to have :
been - um - manipulated. See here
Of course, these allegations are mostly from frustrated Sander supporters who now feel the burn that their votes did not count because of various types of putative fraud.
A timely topic, even from a national security point of view, because one of the potential effects such fraud in the voting process may have on how people view the legitimacy of their government - if they decide it was not really elected at all, but imposed on them by powers beyond their control, they may not support it.
And this doesn't even begin to touch the conspiracy theories that hold the recent Wikileaks revelations were some sort of Russian plot to favor Mr. Trump over Hilary - see Hillary Clinton campaign blames leaked DNC emails about Sanders on Russia, a theory which seems to suggest, as some would have it, that the real corruption was the revealing of the corruption and not the primary corruption itself, if you follow me.
Well, now, there comes before us the challenges to voter identification laws - as now represented by the 20 July 2016 Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals case Veasey v. Abbott specifically Texas Senate Bill 14:
There's much better analysis of the current state of voter ID laws in Richard A. Epstein's Are Voter ID Laws Racist?
Apparently it decided that it may be necessary to destroy fair elections (no fraud) to insure fair elections (no suppression). Or something.
UPDATE: Part of one of the dissents is priceless: From page 102 -
been - um - manipulated. See here
On July 22, 2016 WikiLeaks released around 20,000 emails apparently from top DNC officials, illustrating that Democratic officials favored Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders. The email release, only days away from the Democratic Primary, shed light into potential election fraud (the DNC hasn’t confirmed the accuracy of the email release) and questions regarding how Clinton won the presumptive Democratic nomination.Or here.
Of course, these allegations are mostly from frustrated Sander supporters who now feel the burn that their votes did not count because of various types of putative fraud.
A timely topic, even from a national security point of view, because one of the potential effects such fraud in the voting process may have on how people view the legitimacy of their government - if they decide it was not really elected at all, but imposed on them by powers beyond their control, they may not support it.
And this doesn't even begin to touch the conspiracy theories that hold the recent Wikileaks revelations were some sort of Russian plot to favor Mr. Trump over Hilary - see Hillary Clinton campaign blames leaked DNC emails about Sanders on Russia, a theory which seems to suggest, as some would have it, that the real corruption was the revealing of the corruption and not the primary corruption itself, if you follow me.
Well, now, there comes before us the challenges to voter identification laws - as now represented by the 20 July 2016 Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals case Veasey v. Abbott specifically Texas Senate Bill 14:
In 2011, Texas (“the State”) passed Senate Bill 14 (“SB 14”), which requires individuals to present one of several forms of photo identification in order to vote.Impermissible motives apparently including discrimination against protected classes by denying the right to vote to people for whom the burden of providing one of the various permitted forms of voter ID is too heavy and would exclude "disfavored" groups of people from participating in the election process.
***
Plaintiffs claim that SB 14’s photo identification requirements violate the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments to the United States Constitution and Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act because SB 14 was enacted with a racially discriminatory purpose and has a racially discriminatory effect.
Plaintiffs also claim that SB 14’s photo ID requirement places a substantial burden on the fundamental right to vote under the First and Fourteenth Amendments, and constitutes a poll tax under the Fourteenth and Twenty-Fourth Amendments. The State defends SB 14 as a constitutional requirement imposed to prevent in-person voter fraud and increase voter confidence and turnout.
***
The State’s stated purpose in passing SB 14 centered on protection of the sanctity of voting, avoiding voter fraud, and promoting public confidence in the voting process. No one questions the legitimacy of these concerns as motives. The disagreement centers on whether SB 14 was passed with impermissible motives as well.
***
There's much better analysis of the current state of voter ID laws in Richard A. Epstein's Are Voter ID Laws Racist?
There are few things as controversial in American political life as voting rights. The issue surged to the fore this past week in Veasey v. Abbott when the Fifth Circuit, by a 9-6 vote, delayed the enforcement of Texas Law SB 14. This law limited the forms of photo identification that could be used when registering to vote to state driver’s licenses, U.S. passports, military photo IDs, concealed weapon permits, and U.S citizenship certificates with photographs. Although the law provided for some exceptions for poor and disabled persons, it has been attacked as the most restrictive voting rights law in the United States.You should read the whole 203 page decision to understand how the Fifth Circuit balanced the risk of voter fraud against that of "voter suppression."
***
The issue of the constitutionality of photo IDs arose in 2008 in Crawford v. Marion County Election Board, where the Supreme Court, by a 6-3 vote, upheld an Indiana ID law that required voters to show either state or federal picture ID by denying that such a requirement unduly infringed on anyone’s right to vote. The Court only looked at the constitutional challenge and did not consider the 1982 Voting Rights Amendments, presumably because none of the parties thought it could support a claim. Instead, Justice Stevens wrote that the law was neutral on its face, and had a permissible justification of preventing voter fraud that could upset the results of individual elections and undermine public confidence in the electoral process.
One way to look at Crawford is that preventing voter fraud is important enough to justify the small burden on individual citizens of showing photo ID—a burden no greater than that faced for getting on an airplane. The record makes this view attractive. In Texas, the required IDs were held by over 95% of the population, but among the registered voters, “Hispanic and Black voters were respectively 195% and 305% more likely than their Anglo peers to lack SB 14 ID.” No one claimed this differential rate of registration was attributable to any form of state discrimination. Texas did not charge for the required ID, though there was evidence in the record that some individual plaintiffs had difficulty in navigating the system. It was also agreed that the Texas law passed in 2011 only after tremendous political struggle on a straight party-line vote, which reflected the dominance of Republicans in both houses of the Texas legislature.
There is little question that the Fifth Circuit could have easily dismissed the entire case by a respectful citation to Crawford. But instead, it took out the heavy artillery to upend the Texas statute. If Veasey survives, it will be exceedingly difficult for any photo ID law to pass muster in the United States, at least in the absence of heavily documented instances of fraud, and perhaps not even then.
***
The decision in Veasey is a careless condemnation of the current system on racist grounds. It may well be that the Texas system is far from ideal, and it would be foolish for any outsider to be overconfident that the ideal set of precautions has been adopted in this case. But based on the weak evidence presented here, it is surely a mistake for a majority of the Fifth Circuit to block the law within months of a presidential election. The Supreme Court should stay Veasey and review the outcome in light of its own now denigrated decision in Crawfold. The odds are 4-4 that this will not happen.
Apparently it decided that it may be necessary to destroy fair elections (no fraud) to insure fair elections (no suppression). Or something.
UPDATE: Part of one of the dissents is priceless: From page 102 -
No one doubts our unwavering duty to enforce antidiscrimination law. But in this media-driven and hyperbolic era, the discharge of that duty requires the courage to distinguish between invidious motivation and shadows. The ill-conceived, misguided, and unsupported majority opinion shuns discernment. Because of definitive Supreme Court authority, no comparable federal court precedent in over forty years has found a state legislative act motivated by purposeful racial discrimination. Even more telling, the multithousand page record yields not a trace, much less a legitimate inference, of racial bias by the Texas Legislature. Indeed, why would a racially biased legislature have provided for a cost-free election ID card to assist poor registered voters—of all races—who might not have drivers’ licenses? Yet the majority emulates the clever capacity of Area 51 alien enthusiasts who, lacking any real evidence, espied a vast but clandestine government conspiracy to conceal the “truth.”UPDATE2: NC Voter ID law struck down, too.
Monday, July 25, 2016
Sea Piracy Drops to 21 Year Low
Sea piracy drops to 21-year low, IMB reports:
Especially useful have been the "Live Piracy Reports" and "Live Piracy Maps" which allow rapid assessment of trends in areas around the world. Here's the current 2016 Piracy Map showing piracy and armed robbery incidents occurring to date:
A change in tactics of sea criminals is noted:
Various terrorist groups in Nigeria and the Southeast Asia have turned to hostage taking from vessels to fund their operations. See here and here. From the latter Tanker Operator link referring to the Gulf of Guinea:
Of course, there's always the story of Caesar's revenge on the pirates who held him for ransom, as set out here.
Piracy and armed robbery at sea has fallen to its lowest levels since 1995, despite a surge in kidnappings off West Africa, according to a new report from the International Chamber of Commerce's International Maritime Bureau (IMB).A great deal of the credit for the reduction in piracy should go to the IMB and its reports on the dangers to mariners of crimes at both at sea and in port which helped gather world-wide attention to the problem.
IMB's global piracy report shows 98 incidents in the first half of 2016, compared with 134 for the same period in 2015. When piracy was at its highest, in 2010 and 2003, IMB recorded 445 attacks a year.
In the first half of 2016, IMB recorded 72 vessels boarded, five hijackings, and a further 12 attempted attacks. Nine ships were fired upon. Sixty-four crew were taken hostage onboard, down from 250 in the same period last year.
"This drop in world piracy is encouraging news. Two main factors are recent improvements around Indonesia, and the continued deterrence of Somali pirates off East Africa," said Pottengal Mukundan, Director of IMB, whose global Piracy Reporting Centre has supported the shipping industry, authorities and navies for 25 years.
Especially useful have been the "Live Piracy Reports" and "Live Piracy Maps" which allow rapid assessment of trends in areas around the world. Here's the current 2016 Piracy Map showing piracy and armed robbery incidents occurring to date:
A change in tactics of sea criminals is noted:
Despite global improvements, kidnappings are on the rise, with 44 crew captured for ransom in 2016, 24 of them in Nigeria, up from 10 in the first half of 2015.Obviously, the kidnapping of crews is much easier to accomplish than the taking of the entire ship - and, unlike Somalia during its piracy heyday as a failed state, the keeping of hostages is less cumbersome than trying to park a ship somewhere.
"In the Gulf of Guinea, rather than oil tankers being hijacked for their cargo, there is an increasing number of incidents of crew being kidnapped for ransom," said Captain Mukundan.
The Gulf of Guinea accounted for seven of the world's 10 kidnapping incidents, with armed gangs boarding vessels 30 to 120 NM from shore. Nigerian attacks are often violent, accounting for eight of the nine vessels fired upon worldwide. IMB says many further assaults go unreported by shipowners.
IMB reported two further kidnap incidents off Sabah, where tugs and barges were targeted. And in early June, a tug and barge was hijacked off Balingian, Sarawak in Malaysia and its palm oil cargo stolen.
Various terrorist groups in Nigeria and the Southeast Asia have turned to hostage taking from vessels to fund their operations. See here and here. From the latter Tanker Operator link referring to the Gulf of Guinea:
“In addition, it may be that for the time being, the drop in oil prices has made oil theft a less lucrative proposition than kidnapping for ransom.
“There are indications that some kidnappers have such belief in their business model that they are increasing their logistical capacity to take in and hold more hostages, possibly for longer than is now normally the case. There are also signs that their understanding of the ‘kidnap market’ is evolving – in other words, they may be able to target their attacks with greater precision and demand higher ransoms."
Of course, there's always the story of Caesar's revenge on the pirates who held him for ransom, as set out here.
An Update on Political Correctness Run Amok
Toward the end of my post Political Correctness Run Amok, I wrote:
... does not Gov. Cuomo open up his own state to similar acts by other states on the basis of NY laws with which they disagree? Suppose NY has laws which Texas feels violate the Second Amendment - will Texas now forbid government funding of travel to New York until NY changes its laws to meet Texas standards?An answer of sorts to that question comes in a set of complaints, referred to in New York Gov. Cuomo accused of violating Hatch Act after state ads run in North Carolina:
A former North Carolina Supreme Court judge has filed complaints with the U.S. Office of Special Counsel and a New York state ethics panel alleging that taxpayer-funded ads Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s administration has run in North Carolina violated the Hatch Act by interfering with the gubernatorial and legislative races in that state.According to this:
The commercials, which reference the state’s so-called transgender bathroom law, among policies by other states, “mention North Carolina and its leadership in a transparent attempt to criticize, interfere and affect the impending North Carolina elections,” according to the federal complaint filed by the retired judge, Robert F. Orr.
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The federal complaint criticizes the ads as going “beyond appropriate economic-development recruitment,” saying: “By using public funds to promote New York as supporting certain policies and implicitly criticizing contrary political decisions made in North Carolina, an ethical imitation has been breached.”
The complaint specifically identifies Mr. Cuomo as having violated the Hatch Act, along with several employees of Empire State Development, New York’s economic-development agency.
The Hatch Act restricts the political activity of individuals principally employed by state, District of Columbia, or local executive agencies and who work in connection with programs financed in whole or in part by federal loans or grantsGood luck, Justice Orr, in getting this matter heard in today's PC climate.
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Political Activities and Examples of Prohibited Activities
Covered state, District of Columbia and local employees may not:
*
use official authority or influence to interfere with or affect the results of an election or nomination ...
Saturday, July 23, 2016
Saturday Is Old Radio Day: "Dangerous Assignment"
On Midrats 24 July 2016 - Episode 342: Turkey, Erdoğan & its Miltary - with Ryan Evans
Please join us at 5pm EDT (US) for Midrats Episode 342: Turkey, Erdoğan & its Miltary - with Ryan Evans:
The events of the last week in Turkey brought that critically important nation in to focus, and we are going to do the same thing for this week's episode of Midrats.Join us live if you can or listen later by clicking here. Or pick the show up later from either our iTunes page here or our Stitcher page here.
Turkey has a history of military coups as a byproduct of an ongoing drive to be a modern secular nation against the current of a deeply Islamic people. This week we are going to look at how Turkey found itself at another coup attempt, the response, and the possible impact for Turkey and its relationship with NATO, Russia, Europe, and its neighbors.
Our guest to discuss this and more for the full hour will be Ryan Evans.
Mustafa Kemal Atatürk- Father of Modern Turkey
Ryan Evans is a widely published commentator and recovering academic. He deployed to Helmand Province, Afghanistan from 2010 – 2011 as a Social Scientist on a U.S. Army Human Terrain Team that was OPCON/TACON to the British-led Task Force Helmand. He has worked as assistant director at the Center for the National Interest, a research fellow at the Center for National Policy, and for the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence in London. He is a Fellow of the Inter-University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society and received his MA from the King's College London War Studies Department.
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