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VertRep

Friday, November 14, 2014

On Midrats 16 November 14, "Episode 254: John A. Nagl: 13 Years into the War"

 Please join us on Sunday, 16 November 2014 at 5pm (EST, US) for Midrats Episode 254: John A. Nagl: 13 Years into the War:
13 years into the long war, what have we learned, relearned, mastered, forgotten, and retained for future use? What have we learned about ourselves, the nature of our latest enemy, and the role of our nation? What have those who have served learned about their nation, their world, and themselves?

Iraq, Afghanistan, the Islamic State, and the ever changing global national security ecosystem, where are we now, and where are we going?

Our guest for the full hour to discuss this and more will be returning guest John Nagl, LTC US Army (Ret.) D.Phl, using his most recent book Knife Fights: A Memoir of Modern War in Theory and Practice as the starting point for our discussion.


Dr. Nagl is the Ninth Headmaster of The Haverford School. Prior to assuming responsibility for the School in July 2013, he was the inaugural Minerva Research Professor at the U.S. Naval Academy. He was previously the President of the Center for a New American Security. He graduated from the United States Military Academy Class in 1988 and served as an armor officer for 20 years. Dr. Nagl taught at West Point and Georgetown University, and served as a Military Assistant to two Deputy Secretaries of Defense. He earned his Master of the Military Arts and Sciences Degree from the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College and his doctorate from Oxford University as a Rhodes Scholar.

Dr. Nagl is the author of Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife: Counterinsurgency Lessons from Malaya and Vietnam and was on the team that produced the U.S. Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual.
Join us live if you can or pick the show up later by clicking here. You can also pick the show up later at out iTunes page here, where you can also find the archive of all our previous shows.

Friday Fun Film: "Carrier Action Off Korea (1954)"

Naval aviation during the Korean War is the subject of this 1954 documentary. Part 1 begins with footage of the armistice signed on 27 July 1953. The film then moves back in time to look at the first half of the war, and the impact of American aircraft carriers operating off the coast of Korea. It features extensive aerial footage of combat operations. Source: Naval History and Heritage Command, Photographic Section, UMO-18.




Thursday, November 13, 2014

Egypt: Naval Vessel Attacked at Sea - Terrorism or Smugglers?

Attack on a Egyptian naval unit reported as "8 navy personnel missing after boat attack":
The Egyptian armed forces destroyed four “hostile” boats containing what the military called “terrorist elements,” and arrested 32 people off the coast of Damietta governorate, the military said in a statement on Wednesday night.

“Hostile vessels” opened fire on an Egypt navy boat while it was on patrol, the military spokesperson’s office said on Wednesday. An exchange of gunfire took place between the “terrorist elements” and the navy, who had called for back-up forces.

According to state-owned media, four of the attackers were killed during the clashes. The military has not yet confirmed.

One navy boat was set on fire, and five navy personnel were injured and taken to a military hospital. The military also stated that eight of its navy personnel are missing and military forces are currently searching for them.

More here:
It was not immediately clear what the naval boat was doing so far offshore, and whether it was on a routine patrol anticipated by fighters.

A military source told the AFP news agency the attackers used "fishing boats" and did not appear to have deployed rocket propelled grenades or heavier weapons.

The Mediterranean Sea is used by drug traffickers and illegal migrant smugglers who have been intercepted by the Egyptian navy in the past.

There have been no recorded attacks at sea by the Sinai-based armed fighters who launched an insurgency after the army overthrew President Mohamed Morsi last year.
And more, including "analysis" at BBC News:
If this was a militant attack in the Mediterranean, as the Egyptian army has said, then it's the opening of a new front.
***
The incident happened north of the port of Damietta, where armed people traffickers are known to operate. Did they clash with the navy to protect their lucrative trade?

Map with icon on it is my guess of where the incident occurred. Don't bet on its accuracy.

Sea Piracy and Armed Robbery at Sea: Not Going Away

Maritime Security firm Nexus Consulting President Kevin Doherty discusses the current state of piracy in this BoombergTV video here. Select transcript portions (my corrections included):
Q: How brave [grave] is the threat of piracy today compared with, say, the time frame around the Captain Phillips kidnapping?

A: I would say it is more prevalent.

On a global scale, definitely the incidences have increased threefold over the past two years.

We have locked down Somali piracy, but we still have Nigeria and Southeast Asia heating up.
***
Q: How much is lost due to piracy disruption each year?

A: Hot [Well over] $100 million [billion] in losses and expenses.

Q: $100 billion?

A: That's right.

Q: Who is paying for that?

A: We all are, really.
***
Q: Are you saying that the Nigerian government is in cahoots?

A: I don't have any direct evidence at this point in time, but i would say that they certainly make it difficult to protect themselves and the commercial vessels.
Interesting viewing and a dose of reality in the world of Nigerian (and SE Asia) piracy/sea robbery. I like Kevin's pointed suggestion that there's a whole lot of corruption going on out there that makes some of the world less safe.

In other news, a claim that there was some pirate-like activity in the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, Pirates Attempt to Hijack Israeli Cargo Ship At Sea:
One of the ZIM shipping company's cargo ships was attacked by pirates Wednesday afternoon in the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb, adjacent to Somalia.

Security guards stationed aboard the transport ship repelled the attack by the group of pirates who attempted to abduct the ship while in the middle of open waters.

The incident occurred as the Israeli ship made its way from East Asia back to Israel. The ship sailed into an ambush when two pirate ships snuck up alongside the ZIM vessel, and the pirates attempted to get on board and take control of the ship.
Been a couple of these "attempts" near the Bab recently. Map from the Live Piracy Map site of the ICC CCS IMB.

UPDATE: Nice BBC News report on West Africa piracy here:
***
In most cases of West African piracy, the pirates want the cargo, not the crew.

This means levels of violence are higher than they are off the coast of Somalia, where the pirates need to keep the crew alive in order to obtain ransoms.
***
Underwriters have designated the waters off Nigeria, Togo and Benin a "war risk area", pushing up insurance costs.

This ultimately affects the cost of food, oil and anything else that is transported by sea from West Africa.
BBC News has a documentary on this topic coming up:
Tune in to the BBC World Service at 19:05 GMT on Saturday 15 November to listen to the documentary Chasing West Africa's Pirates. It will also be available to listen to online or as a download.

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Disaster Prep Wednesday: Buy that Insurance!

Look, there are whole bunch of non-profit and governmental agencies that will rush to the site of a disaster and provide short-term aid - food, water, and some other gifts - but none of them - no, not the Red Cross, not FEMA, not the Baptist Men, the Salvation Army or any of the others - will ever come close to restoring you back to the situation you were in before the disaster. For that, you really, really need to have purchased insurance. The very purpose of insurance is to put you back as you were before the disaster:
Homeowner's insurance is designed to offer you protection in case of loss or damage to your home and property. A typical homeowner's insurance policy includes protection for both the house and the property that it sits on, as well as other buildings or structures on that property. Most homeowner's insurance policies also provide protection for any items within the house or other structures. In the event of damage or theft, you are reimbursed for the cost of repairs or replacement as well as the time you must spend away from home while repairs are being done.
If you don't own your residence, you should buy "renters insurance":
Many renters who go without are under the mistaken impression that their landlord’s policy covers their possessions.

“As a renter, if your personal property is damaged, you’d have to have a renter’s policy to get coverage,” said John Capuano, an associate insurance examiner with the New York State Department of Financial Services. “The landlord’s policy is not going to cover your damages.”
Many landlords will not lease a unit unless the prospective tenant offers up proof of renters insurance.


I've been on a couple of Red Cross apartment fire responses where that has been very comforting to the tenants whose apartment just got turned into rubble. These policies are pretty inexpensive, too. Nice to know that big screen television and various computers, game consoles and mattresses can be replaced. A little planning ahead works wonders.

However, unless you add "replacement value" coverage, you will only receive a dollar amount covering what you might have paid for your stuff. Thus, as set out here:
When you file a homeowners claim, the insurance company calculates how much to pay you by evaluating the cost to replace your property with new property of the same kind and quality. But here's the critical distinction: If your policy covers your personal property (your home's contents) for its actual cash value, the insurance company deducts depreciation from your personal property's overall value before arriving at a figure.

Your check will usually be less, sometimes significantly less, than the amount it will cost to restore, repair or replace the damage or loss. However, if you have replacement cost coverage, the insurance company will pay what it costs to repair or replace your damaged possessions at today's prices without deducting for depreciation.

While actual cash value language is standard, most insurance companies offer replacement cost coverage as an option.

Renter or owner, depending on where you live, you might find it a really good idea to also have flood insurance because most home/renter policies do not cover floods. In addition, if you live in an earthquake zone, you might want to look at adding "earthquake coverage". People who live in hurricane and tornado prone areas may need special "windstorm coverage":
A special type of property-casualty insurance that protects policyholders from property damage caused by windstorms. Windstorm insurance is usually offered in the form of a rider on a standard casualty insurance policy through the extended coverage endorsement. It is one of the subsets of storm insurance.
Whether or not you may have a need of these forms of special coverage will very much depend on where your property is.

In North Carolina, for example, the Department of Insurance has a "Coastal Property Insurance Pool":
The Coastal Property Insurance Pool is defined by the North Carolina General Statutes as the "Market of Last Resort"; therefore, it is highly recommended that property owners attempt to obtain insurance in the standard market.
Other coastal states may have similar programs. It's worth checking if you have one of those cool beachfront houses. Renters can get windstorm policies, too.

If you are uninsured, you may only get the limited amount of help that the Red Cross and other NGOs and FEMA may be able to offer - which is meant to help for a short time only.

So, buy that insurance!

Warning Order: I'm Giving a Piracy Presentation


 I'll be giving a talk on "Modern Day Piracy on the High Seas" in Cobb County, Georgia, at the Switzer Library, 266 Roswell Street, Marietta, on Saturday November 15th, starting at 2:00 p.m.


If you sit through what I hope will be an interactive discussion, I'm told there are "cookies and punch" being offered as a reward.

I do note that the Georgia - Auburn football game has been postponed set for later that evening so as to not not interfere with this chat.

Y'all are invited.

Monday, November 10, 2014

Sea Pirates: A "Small Tanker" Concern from the International Maritime Bureau


IMB notes concern over small tanker attacks in SE Asia :
While pirate attacks on the world’s seas have fallen for the third consecutive year, small tanker hijacks by armed gangs are escalating in Southeast Asia, reveals the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) International Maritime Bureau (IMB) in its latest piracy report.
***
“It’s encouraging to see the huge decrease in maritime piracy and armed robbery over the last few years, thanks mainly to international navies deterring pirates off East Africa, and improved onboard security,” said IMB Director, Pottengal Mukundan. “However, there has been a worrying new rise in attacks against small coastal tankers in Southeast Asia. We advise small tankers in particular to remain vigilant in these waters and report all attacks and suspicious small craft to the IMB’s Piracy Reporting Centre.”

IMB’s Piracy Reporting Centre says gangs of thieves armed with knives and guns are making Southeast Asian waters increasingly dangerous for small tankers carrying products such as gasoil or marine diesel oil. Boarding the ship at sea, pirates hold the crew hostage for a short time while they unload all or part of the cargo, which they then use, or sell locally. Of the six vessels hijacked worldwide in the third quarter of 2014, five were in Southeast Asia.
It's not just Southeast Asia, as noted further on:
The number of incidents reported in Nigeria has dropped noticeably, down to 13 in the first nine months of 2014, from 29 in the same period last year. Elsewhere in the Gulf of Guinea, Ghana recorded four incidents in 2014 compared with no incidents in 2013. This includes the hijacking of two product tankers – and theft of their cargoes – and a fishing vessel and the taking hostage of 86 crew members.
Why small tankers? Because of their small crews, lack of security, ease of boarding, ease of transfer of product to another vessel, and high value cargo. It also helps if there is little or no sea law enforcement force out there.

Happy Birthday, U.S. Marines!

USMC Birthday Message:


A nice salute from Duffle Blog U.S. Creates World’s Largest Marine Preserve In Pacific.

Happy Birthday, Jar Heads!

Saturday, November 08, 2014

Friday, November 07, 2014

On Midrats 9 November 14 Episode 253: "The Fleet we Have, Want, and Need" - with Jerry Hendrix

Please join us at 5pm EST on 9 Nov 14 for for Midrats Episode 253: "The Fleet we Have, Want, and Need - with Jerry Hendrix"
What is the proper fleet structure for the USN as we design our Navy that will serve its nation in mid-Century?

Join us for a broad ranging discussion on this topic and more with returning guest, Henry J. Hendrix, Jr, CAPT USN (Ret.), PhD.

Fresh off his recent retirement from active duty, Jerry is a Senior Fellow and the Director of the Defense Strategies and Assessments Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS).

A Naval Flight Officer by training, his staff assignments include tours with the Chief of Naval Operation’s Executive Panel (N00K), the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy (Force Development) and the OSD Office of Net Assessment.

His final position in uniform was the Director of Naval History.

Hendrix also served as the Navy Fellow to the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University. He has a Bachelor Degree in Political Science from Purdue University, Masters Degrees from the Naval Postgraduate School (National Security Affairs) and Harvard University (History) and received his doctorate from King’s College, London (War Studies).

He has twice been named the Samuel Eliot Morison Scholar by the Navy Historical Center in Washington, DC, and was also the Center’s 2005 Rear Admiral John D. Hays Fellow. He also held the Marine Corps’ General Lemuel C. Shepherd, Jr. Fellowship. He authored the book Theodore Roosevelt’s Naval Diplomacy and received a number of awards, including the United States Naval Institute’s Author of the Year and the Navy League’s Alfred T. Mahan Award for Literary Achievement.
Listen in here (or use that link to pick the show up later) or visit us on iTunes.

Friday Fun Film: Prelude to Veterans Day

On Veterans Day, 11 November, we honor those who serve and have served in the military of the United States.


Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your service.

You might recall last year's special pre-Veterans Day celebrations during October 2013:
 

Thursday, November 06, 2014

Best Post-Election Commentary

Veritas Liberabit Vos

Victor Davis Hanson, The Democrats’ Waterloo :
Obama and the Democrats chose not to defend the administration’s record of the last six years.
***
Democrats understandably chose to ignore both what they had voted for in the past and what they were likely to support in the future.

Instead, they ran on the same old progressive idea of community organizing to get out the base. Obama was the past master of this strategy: energize American voters by contending that we have been separated by race, class, and gender; claim that conservatives have been waging pitiless war against blacks, Latinos, gays, women, and the poor; and then cobble back together the aroused and aggrieved interests to form a majority.

So why, after prior successes, did Obama’s race/class/gender attack finally sputter out like the French at Waterloo?

Unhappy voters thought the anemic economy, Obamacare, the collapse of U.S. foreign policy, the scandals in government, and the incompetent handling of everything from the Islamic State to Ebola were the only real issues. Democrats’ refusal to acknowledge them did not make these failures go away.

Nor did Americans believe that Republicans had been waging war on minorities, women, or gays — especially given that Republicans have held the House only since 2011 and have been out of power in the Senate and presidency since 2009.

After three elections, voters finally caught on that Obama’s faults were not in the stars, but in himself. They apparently tired of the usual distractions from a dismal presidential record.

Read the whole thing, especially starting with the third paragraph.

UPDATE: Oh, and Rush is right.

Wednesday, November 05, 2014

Disaster Prep Wednesday: A Preparation Fable For You

The Ant and the Grasshopper:
In a field one summer's day a Grasshopper was hopping about, chirping and singing to its heart's content. An Ant passed by, bearing along with great toil an ear of corn he was taking to the nest.

"Why not come and chat with me," said the Grasshopper, "instead of toiling and moiling in that way?"

"I am helping to lay up food for the winter," said the Ant, "and recommend you to do the same."

"Why bother about winter?" said the Grasshopper; we have got plenty of food at present." But the Ant went on its way and continued its toil.

When the winter came the Grasshopper found itself dying of hunger, while it saw the ants distributing, every day, corn and grain from the stores they had collected in the summer.

Then the Grasshopper knew...

It is best to prepare for the days of necessity.



The cartoon ends better for the grasshopper. But then, it's Disneyfied.

UPDATE: If you want to read an epic rant on "grasshoppers" and "ants," let me recommend portions of John Ringo's The Last Centurion, especially Chapter 7, Case Studies or the Grasshopper and the Ant. Lot of profane soldier talk in it, so if you are easily offended, stick to the fable above.

Tuesday, November 04, 2014

Wing in Ground: Is WiGgy Coming Back?

Soviet WiG Plane
About 9 years ago, I had a post about Wing in Ground aircraft, Going WiGgy which was a look at the fearsome Soviet Wing in Ground planes of the old days.

WingShip photo
Now it appears a South Korean company WingShip Technology Corp. is looking to revive the concept in a big way. According to The Economist, things are moving right along despite the sad history of previous failures in WiG:
But hope springs eternal, and the Wing Ship Technology Corporation, a South Korean company, is trying to revive the idea. The country’s armed forces have already agreed to buy some and the firm says it hopes to announce its first commercial sales (to an oil-and-gas firm and a Mediterranean ferry company) shortly.
Corporate video:



WingShip suggests a number of uses for their design here, including military:

Similar to development and operation of previous WIG crafts for military purpose by Soviet Union, WSH series is considerably attractive in military market. She could be used for special purpose because it’s hard to detect her during operation.

Hmmm.

Monday, November 03, 2014

Special Pre-Election Day Heinlein Quotes

“If you are part of a society that votes, then do so. There may be no candidates and no measures you want to vote for ... but there are certain to be ones you want to vote against. In case of doubt, vote against. By this rule you will rarely go wrong.”

― Robert A. Heinlein, Time Enough for Love

To vote is to wield authority; it is the supreme authority from which all other authority derives .....

- Robert A. Heinlein, Starship Troopers

Fighting ISIS and al Qaeda: Choosing Poor Allies Is Not Helpful



Warfare is never pretty, but it gets downright ugly when you have poor allies who cannot be relied on to fulfill the roles assigned to them. Case in point is this report from the WAPO, which actually has a misleading headline, U.S.-backed Syria rebels routed by fighters linked to al-Qaeda, because, in addition to being "routed," many of them shifted allegiance:
The Obama administration’s Syria strategy suffered a major setback Sunday after fighters linked to al-Qaeda routed U.S.-backed rebels from their main northern strongholds, capturing significant quantities of weaponry, triggering widespread defections and ending hopes that Washington will readily find Syrian partners in its war against the Islamic State.

Moderate rebels who had been armed and trained by the United States either surrendered or defected to the extremists as the Jabhat al-Nusra group, affiliated with al-Qaeda, swept through the towns and villages the moderates controlled in the northern province of Idlib, in what appeared to be a concerted push to vanquish the moderate Free Syrian Army, according to rebel commanders, activists and analysts.
(emphasis added)
Given the long history of rapidly changing alliances in the region this result probably shouldn't be exactly - you know - shocking. However, it does point out - once again - the problem of first world thinking meeting third world tribal and cultural standards head on.

These "allies" are fighting for what, exactly?

It certainly isn't for the glory of Syria or mom and apple pie.

Motivation being what it is and given that Mao's precept that "Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun," applies to tribal and religious struggles in the Middle East as well as to communist insurgencies, these former and current allies basically are fighting for power and profit, while the other side seeks to replace the status quo ante with themselves, asserting that "God is on our side!" as they gather up power, profit and young maidens to debauch or sell into slavery. Seems to be a pretty good recruiting tool when coupled with the chance to fight the "Great Satan" and its minions.

In the long run, our side offers  . . . what exactly again?

Why would any rational player in this "game" choose to align with the force holding the weak hand and with a reputation for abandoning the field when the going gets tough?

If the U.S. and its allies are serious about doing something about Syria and ISIS, AQ and its ally the "Al Nusrah Front," then they had better gear up for the game and quit pussy-footing around trying to bend other people into doing the hard work.

They also better develop a plan that tells putative allies what the mess will look like (as in what's in it for them) when the fighting is over. Without that clear vision to sell, well, you are pushing vapor and pipe dreams of  "kumbaya" singing around the campfire holding hands and sharing flower petals.

Lesson #1 out of our involvement in the Middle East in the last 30+ years ought to be that you have to earn respect and then you have to work hard to keep it. Playing around at the margins probably isn't the path that leads to that result.

Keep up with lots more in the "long war" by reading The Long War Journal.

Oh, yeah, those guys in the video are not Crusaders. In case you were wondering.

Saturday, November 01, 2014

On Midrats 2 Nov14, 5pm EST, Episode 252: "Officers walking the line and knowing their place"

Please join us at 5pm Sunday 2 Nov 14 (don't forget to turn your clock back as we go off daylight saving time) for Midrats Episode 252: "Officers walking the line and knowing their place":
Where do senior uniformed leaders draw the line between acknowledging the primacy of civilian leadership to make policy, and maintaining enough distance from the politics to retain their independence of the politics and the politicians?

Is there a point where someone can pass from being a "good soldier" to simply becoming a useful tool of ambitious politicians.

Our guest this Sunday to discuss this and more will be J.D. Gordon, CDR USN (Ret.) We will be using his latest article, "Obama's top military advisers: 'Useful idiots' or good military officers?" as a starting off point before broadening the discussion.

J. D. Gordon was a career Navy public affairs officer with 20 years of active duty service, and is the former Defense Department spokesman for the Western Hemisphere in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, serving under both Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Secretary Robert Gates from 2005 to 2009.

Gordon also served as the Vice President, Communications and Chief Foreign Policy and National Security Adviser to former Republican Presidential Candidate Herman Cain's 2012 campaign. During the 2010 Congressional campaign cycle, Gordon arranged speaking events for former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

Recently, Gordon has also been a Senior Fellow and Communications Adviser to numerous think tanks and foundations, including Atlas Economic Research Foundation, Center for a Secure Free Society, Americas Forum, Atlantic Bridge, Center for Security Policy, Let Freedom Ring and the Liberty and; Freedom Foundation.

Gordon, a columnist to Fox News and The Washington Times since 2010, has regularly appeared as a national security and foreign policy commentator in television and radio outlets in English and Spanish languages.
Please join us live or pick the show up for later listening by clicking here. Or pick the show up later from our iTunes link here.

Remember, that's 5pm Sunday EST, after you've adjusted your clocks.

Friday, October 31, 2014

John Kerry, "My job is really, really hard" - Not like those folks in the past, when "The Cold War was Easy"

Remarkable. “The Cold War was easy compared to where we are today,” the secretary of State said Thursday . . .
Q: How does Afghanistan fit the strategic plan . . . ISIS . . . where does it fit . . .?
A. Well, it's very straightforward . . . and let me say to everybody that we're living . . . the Cold War was easy compared to where we are today . . . and the immediate post war . . .

Q. Is Putin trying to make it easy for you again, bringing it back?
A. I hope not.
So, the modern world - the world we live in today - is "very straightforward" but not "easy" like the olden time "Cold War" era. Clear enough for you?

No wonder we are wallowing in international affairs.

Another quote from Mr. Kerry:
So now, you have more countries with more economic power in a globalized world. … They're going to automatically react and say, Well, wait a minute, now. Do we really want the behemoth United States, superpower of the world, telling us all the time what we have to do?" Kerry said. "So you have to approach these things a little differently. It requires more diplomacy. It requires more dialogue. It requires more respect for people, more mutual interests."
Imagine the nerve of other countries thinking they have the right to manage their own matters, thus complicating U.S. foreign policy. Having to exercise more "diplomacy," don't you know. So much work dealing with India, Japan, South Korea and all those Europeans. But isn't that why we have a Secretary of State and all the minions in the State Department? Isn't this "complicated" world of free and economically stronger countries what we fought wars, both hot and cold for?

Isn't the main complicating factor now the combination of rogue states, including Russia, Iran and North Korea, and non-state forces like ISIS and al Queda? The former don't respond to diplomacy because . . . they know the threat force causes the dis-unified western nations to cave in and toss, say, Crimea and other chunks of Ukraine or Georgia off the sled to fend off the Russian wolves. And ISIS/AQ, being stateless but funded (in part) by states, know they have top cover so that diplomacy is a waste of time.

But where did our "nuance" in dealing with such bullies come from? Who pushed the "reset" button with Russia. Who drew quickly erased "red lines" in the sand? Who looks to cut a deal with Iran? Who decided to get out of Iraq without finishing the fight? Who announced "set in stone" withdrawal dates for troops in Afghanistan?

And, Mr. Interviewer - - - "Strategic plan?" What strategic plan would that be?

Remarkable.

Video here.

Friday Movie From the Why We Fight Series: "The Battle of China" (1944)

Longish movie and tough for modern audiences, but good to watch if you want some historical background on tensions in East Asia.



A horror film of sorts suitable for the date.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Nature Pollutes

Gas-Spewing Icelandic Volcano Stuns Scientists 
For eight weeks, lava has been spurting out of a fissure in the ground radiating from the Bárðarbunga volcano, about 250 kilometers from Reykjavik. Sulphur dioxide has been spurting too — 35,000 tons of it a day, more than twice the amount spewing from all of Europe’s smokestacks.
Time to shut nature down!

Gas warning information from the Icelandic Meteorological Office here.  Gas dispersion model from here:

The images show a calculation of atmospheric concentration of SO2 at ground level. The plume is re-initialized at the beginning of each calculation (see date top right) and hence some SO2 from previous days is likely to be in the atmosphere.

The strength of SO2 emissions at the volcano is estimated using ground based remote sensing and the dispersion of SO2 is based on a wind forecast. Both factors lead to an uncertainty in the modeled plume.

The colorscale used on the map is based on a table from the Environmental Agency of Iceland (scroll down) indicating the health effects of SO2.

Update: Not limited to Iceland. USGS on Long-lasting Eruption of Kilauea Volcano, Hawai`i Leads to Volcanic-Air Pollution:
In 1986 when the eruption of Kilauea Volcano changed from the episodic fountaining of lava and gas at Pu`u O`o cone every few weeks to the continuous outpouring of lava from a new vent only 3 km away, the volcano began releasing a large, steady supply of sulfur dioxide gas into the atmosphere. During the episodic activity, enough time elapsed between fountaining episodes for the prevailing trade winds (brisk winds from the northeast of Hawai`i) to blow volcanic gas away from the island. When the eruption style changed, however, the daily release of as much as 2,000 tons of sulfur dioxide gas led to a persistent air pollution problem downwind.
Effects of the release of SO2 includes acid rain.

USGS on Volcanic Gases and Climate Change:
The most significant climate impacts from volcanic injections into the stratosphere come from the conversion of sulfur dioxide to sulfuric acid, which condenses rapidly in the stratosphere to form fine sulfate aerosols. The aerosols increase the reflection of radiation from the Sun back into space, cooling the Earth's lower atmosphere or troposphere. Several eruptions during the past century have caused a decline in the average temperature at the Earth's surface of up to half a degree (Fahrenheit scale) for periods of one to three years.
So, I guess that is, to some minds, a good thing, then.  Perhaps not the acid rain part, but the counter to global warming part.

Which reminds me - it's a probably a bad idea to build your house down hill from an active volcano. See Pompeii, for example.