"We must be ready to dare all for our country. For history does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or the timid. We must acquire proficiency in defense and display stamina in purpose." - President Eisenhower, First Inaugural Address
I got to thinking about a discussion we had as part of Midrats yesterday in which we talked about the attack on a Saudi frigate in the Red Sea by some sort of high speed boat or something. I think it began about the 10:09 point.
In any event, today I took the opportunity to closely examine the Saudi video of the attack -
As I viewed the video I noted what appears to be the bow of the attack vessel appearing out of the sea spray. In the screen shot of the video, I've circled the area and placed an arrow pointing at what I believe to be the bow.
That got me thinking about an Iranian video of an alleged "drone" boat attack on a mock up of a U.S. aircraft carrier from a couple of years ago:
Now, the North Koreans have a plethora of small fast semi-submersible craft - at least one version of which has been seen in Iranian hands:
First, from NOSI, a look at such a vessel in NORK yards:
Finally, one of those critters bobbing along with the Iranian fleet:
If I were an Iranian naval or IRGC officer and I had a cool toy, I might want to try it out somewhere against an enemy - not the "A" team probably but perhaps against the "SA" team. So I wonder - was this an application of something akin to what they used in that practice/publicity attack on the fake carrier? Or was this some sort of hybrid attack using something like that Taedong B semi-submersible or one of its ilk?
Or did they steal someone's ski boat?
Given the amount of spray around the attack boat, I have an inclination toward some sort of semi-submersible whose bow came out of the water when it hit the frigates bow wake, but I am open to suggestions.
The Houthi boat that attacked and hit a Saudi frigate Jan. 30 in the Red Sea, reported earlier as a suicide boat, was instead carried out by an unmanned, remote-controlled craft filled with explosives, the US Navy’s top officer in the Mideast said. “Our assessment is that it was an unmanned, remote-controlled boat of some kind,” Vice Adm. Kevin Donegan, commander of the Bahrain-based US Fifth Fleet and head of US Naval Forces Central Command, told Defense News in an interview here Saturday. The attack on the frigate Al Madinah appears to be the first confirmed use of the weapon which, Donegan said, represents a wider threat than that posed by suicide boats and shows foreign interests are aiding the Houthis.
Read the whole article, which reflects an opinion that those "foreign interests" are Iranian:
The unmanned boat was likely supplied by Iran, Donegan said. “I don’t know that it’s Iranian-built, but I believe that it’s production in some way was supported by Iran,” Donegan said.
Recall that the Bab el Mandeb Strait is a vital choke point (as pointed out in the Cavas article) or as the U.S. Energy Information Administration sets out:
Closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could keep tankers in the Persian Gulf from reaching the Suez Canal and the SUMED Pipeline, diverting them around the southern tip of Africa.
The U.S. Navy's Office of Naval Intelligence has a warning out here:
Red Sea, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and Gulf of Aden Commercial vessels in the region of the Red Sea, Bab el Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Aden should operate under a heightened state of alert as increasing tensions in the region escalate the potential for direct or collateral damage to vessels transiting the region. These threats may come from a variety of different sources such as missiles, projectiles or waterborne improvised explosive devices. Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for an 01 October attack on a UAE vessel. . .
Freedom of the seas means not letting bad guys take potshots at ships at sea. Nothing like a little firework to celebrate your 241st birthday, U.S. Navy!
The following is a statement released today by Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook on U.S. military strikes against radar sites in Yemen: "Early this morning local time, the U.S. military struck three radar sites in Houthi-controlled territory on Yemen's Red Sea coast. Initial assessments show the sites were destroyed. The strikes -- authorized by President Obama at the recommendation of Secretary of Defense Ash Carter and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Joseph Dunford -- targeted radar sites involved in the recent missile launches threatening USS Mason and other vessels operating in
The guided missile destroyer USS Nitze (DDG 94) launches a strike against three coastal radar sites in Houthi-controlled territory on Yemen's Red Sea coast.
international waters in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb. These limited self-defense strikes were conducted to protect our personnel, our ships, and our freedom of navigation in this important maritime passageway. The United States will respond to any further threat to our ships and commercial traffic, as appropriate, and will continue to maintain our freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, the Bab al-Mandeb, and elsewhere around the world."
As a side note, Iran is sending a frigate and a replenishment ship to the Gulf of Aden in what looks to me like one of their routine counter-piracy patrols, as set out here:
Iran’s 44th fleet, comprised of Alvand destroyer and Bushehr logistic warship, has been dispatched to the Gulf of Aden and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to protect the country’s trade vessels against piracy in the unsafe zone. The Iranian fleet will head for the waters near Somalia and Tanzania afterwards through the Indian Ocean.
After making a port call in Tanzania, the 44th fleet will sail along the eastern coasts of Africa if the weather holds out, and is scheduled to sail even for the western coasts of South Africa, in the South Atlantic Ocean. The presence of the Iranian fleet in the Gulf of Aden coincides with the US decision to directly get involved in a Saudi-led war against Yemen.
Things are pretty much a mess in Yemen as various Shiite and Sunni groups attempt to push the others around in order to gain control of key areas of Yemen. Pretty good explanation from the BBC of Yemen crisis: Who is fighting whom?:
The main fight is between forces loyal to the beleaguered President, Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, and those allied to Zaidi Shia rebels known as Houthis, who forced Mr Hadi to flee the capital Sanaa in February. {2015} *** Yemen's security forces have split loyalties, with some units backing Mr Hadi, and others the Houthis and Mr Hadi's predecessor Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has remained politically influential. Mr Hadi is also supported in the predominantly Sunni south of the country by militia known as Popular Resistance Committees and local tribesmen. Both President Hadi and the Houthis are opposed by al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which has staged numerous deadly attacks from its strongholds in the south and south-east. The picture is further complicated by the emergence in late 2014 of a Yemen affiliate of the jihadist group Islamic State, which seeks to eclipse AQAP and claims it carried out a series of suicide bombings in Sanaa in March 2015. After rebel forces closed in on the president's southern stronghold of Aden in late March, a coalition led by Saudi Arabia responded to a request by Mr Hadi to intervene and launched air strikes on Houthi targets. The coalition comprises five Gulf Arab states and Jordan, Egypt, Morocco and Sudan. *** The conflict between the Houthis and the elected government is also seen as part of a regional power struggle between Shia-ruled Iran and Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia, which shares a long border with Yemen. Gulf Arab states have accused Iran of backing the Houthis financially and militarily, though Iran has denied this, and they are themselves backers of President Hadi. Yemen is strategically important because it sits on the Bab al-Mandab strait, a narrow waterway linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, through which much of the world's oil shipments pass. Egypt and Saudi Arabia fear a Houthi takeover would threaten free passage through the strait.
If you feel you need a scorecard to keep track, you are not alone.
But focus on this - Iran is Saudi Arabia's enemy.
Iran would like to control the Saudi outflow of oil. It can do so by shutting down Saudi access through the Strait of Hormuz except that the Saudi's can also export oil from their west coast on the Red Sea and ship it through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. If the Iranian surrogate Houthis can gain control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait then Iran could, effectively, throttle Saudi oil flow.
The chokepoint situation had been discussed here many time, but the U.S.Energy Information Administration has a great site, World Oil Transit Chokepoints which lays these routes out well:
World chokepoints for maritime transit of oil are a critical part of global energy security. About 63% of the world's oil production moves on maritime routes. The Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca are the world's most important strategic chokepoints by volume of oil transit. *** The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important chokepoint with an oil flow of
17 million barrels per day in 2013, about 30% of all seaborne-traded oil. Located between Oman and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint because of its daily oil flow of 17 million barrels per day in 2013. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz in 2013 were about 30% of all seaborne-traded oil. EIA estimates that more than 85% of the crude oil that moved through this chokepoint went to Asian markets, based on data from Lloyd's List Intelligence tanker tracking service.6 Japan, India, South Korea, and China are the largest destinations for oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz. *** At its narrowest point, the Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide, but the width of the shipping lane in either direction is only two miles wide, separated by a two-mile buffer zone. The Strait of Hormuz is deep and wide enough to handle the world's largest crude oil tankers, with about two-thirds of oil shipments carried by tankers in excess of 150,000 deadweight tons. *** Pipelines available as bypass options Most potential options to bypass Hormuz are currently not operational. Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) presently have pipelines able to ship crude oil outside of the Persian Gulf and have additional pipeline capacity to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz. At the end of 2013, the total available unused pipeline capacity from the two countries combined was approximately 4.3 million bbl/d (see Table 2). Saudi Arabia has the 746-mile Petroline, also known as the East-West Pipeline, which runs across Saudi Arabia from its Abqaiq complex to the Red Sea. The Petroline system consists of two pipelines with a total nameplate (installed) capacity of about 4.8 million bbl/d. The 56-inch pipeline has a nameplate capacity of 3 million bbl/d, and its current throughput is about 2 million bbl/d. The 48-inch pipeline had been operating in recent years as a natural gas pipeline, but Saudi Arabia converted it back to an oil pipeline. The switch increased Saudi Arabia's spare oil pipeline capacity to bypass the Strait of Hormuz from 1 million bbl/d to 2.8 million bbl/d, but this is only achievable if the system operates at its full nameplate capacity. Saudi Arabia also operates the Abqaiq-Yanbu natural gas liquids pipeline, which has a capacity of 290,000 bbl/d. However, this pipeline is currently running at capacity and cannot move any additional oil. The UAE operates the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (1.5 million bbl/d) that runs from Habshan, a collection point for Abu Dhabi's onshore oil fields, to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, allowing crude oil shipments to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz. The pipeline can transport more than half of UAE's total net oil exports. The government plans to increase this capacity in the near future to 1.8 million bbl/d. *** Suez Canal The Suez Canal is located in Egypt and connects the Red Sea and Gulf of Suez with the Mediterranean Sea. In 2013, total petroleum and other liquids (crude oil and refined products) and LNG accounted for 20% and 3% of total Suez cargoes, measured by cargo tonnage, respectively. The Suez Canal is unable to handle Ultra Large Crude Carriers (ULCC) and fully laden Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) class crude oil tankers. The Suezmax was the largest ship capable of navigating through the canal until 2010 when the Suez Canal Authority extended the canal depth to 66 feet to allow more than 60% of all tankers to use the Suez Canal, according to the Suez Canal Authority.15 In 2013, nearly 3.2 million bbl/d of total oil (crude oil and refined products) transited the Suez Canal in both directions, according to the Suez Canal Authority. This is the largest amount ever shipped through the Suez Canal. The majority of the oil was sent northbound (1.9 million bbl/d) toward European and North American markets, and the remainder was sent southbound (1.3 million bbl/d), mainly toward Asian markets. Oil exports from Persian Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Oman, Qatar, and Bahrain) accounted for 79% of Suez Canal northbound oil flows. The largest importers of northbound oil flows through the Suez Canal in 2013 were European countries (68%) and the United States (16%). Oil exports from European countries made up the majority (66%) of Suez southbound oil flows, followed by North Africa (Algeria and Libya combined made up 16%). The largest importers of Suez southbound oil flows through the Suez Canal were Asian countries (74%). Total traffic through the Suez Canal fell in 2009, and total oil flows dropped to 1.8 million bbl/d, their lowest level in recent years. The decrease in oil flows during that time reflected the collapse in world oil market demand that began in the fourth quarter of 2008, followed by OPEC production cuts (primarily from the Persian Gulf), which caused a sharp fall in regional oil trade starting in early 2009. Egypt's 2011 revolution did not have any noticeable effect on oil transit flows through the Suez Canal. Over the past few years, oil flows through the Suez Canal have increased, recovering from previous lower levels during the global economic downturn. SUMED Pipeline
The 200-mile long SUMED Pipeline, or Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline, transports crude oil through Egypt from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. The crude oil flows through two parallel pipelines that are 42 inches in diameter, with a total pipeline capacity of 2.34 million bbl/d. Oil flows north starting at the Ain Sukhna terminal along the Red Sea coast to its end point at the Sidi Kerir terminal on the Mediterranean Sea. SUMED is owned by the Arab Petroleum Pipeline Co., a joint venture between the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (50%), Saudi Aramco (15%), Abu Dhabi's International Petroleum Investment Company (15%), multiple Kuwaiti companies (15%), and Qatar Petroleum (5%).16 The SUMED Pipeline is the only alternative route to transport crude oil from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea if ships were unable to navigate through the Suez Canal. Closure of the Suez Canal and the SUMED Pipeline would necessitate diverting oil tankers around the southern tip of Africa, the Cape of Good Hope, adding approximately 2,700 miles to transit from Saudi Arabia to the United States, increasing both costs and shipping time, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation.17 According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), shipping around Africa would add 15 days of transit to Europe and 8-10 days to the United States.18 Fully laden VLCCs going toward the Suez Canal also use the SUMED Pipeline for lightering. Lightering occurs when a vessel needs to reduce its weight and draft by offloading cargo to enter a restrictive waterway, such as a canal. The Suez Canal is not deep enough for a fully-laden VLCC and, therefore, a portion of the crude is offloaded at the SUMED Pipeline at the Ain Sukhna terminal. The now partially-laden VLCC goes through the Suez Canal and picks up the offloaded crude at the other end of the pipeline at the Sidi Kerir terminal. In 2013, 1.4 million bbl/d of crude oil was transported through the SUMED Pipeline to the Mediterranean Sea, which was then loaded onto a tanker for seaborne trade. SUMED crude flows decreased over the past few years, but the decrease has been offset by more oil transiting northbound via the Suez Canal. Total oil flows via SUMED and the Suez Canal were 4.6 million bbl/d in 2013, 0.1 million bbl/d higher compared with the previous year. Total oil flows via the Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline accounted for about 8% of total seaborne-traded oil in 2013. *** Bab el-Mandeb
Closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could keep tankers in the Persian Gulf from reaching
the Suez Canal and the SUMED Pipeline, diverting them around the southern tip of Africa.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a chokepoint between the Horn of Africa and the Middle East, and it is a strategic link between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. The strait is located between Yemen, Djibouti, and Eritrea, and connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. Most exports from the Persian Gulf that transit the Suez Canal and SUMED Pipeline also pass through Bab el-Mandeb.
An estimated 3.8 million bbl/d of crude oil and refined petroleum products flowed through this waterway in 2013 toward Europe, the United States, and Asia, an increase from 2.9 million bbl/d in 2009. Oil shipped through the strait decreased by almost one-third in 2009 because of the global economic downturn and the decline in northbound oil shipments to Europe. Northbound oil shipments increased through Bab el-Mandeb Strait in 2013, and more than half of the traffic, about 2.1 million bbl/d, moved northbound to the Suez Canal and SUMED Pipeline.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is 18 miles wide at its narrowest point, limiting tanker traffic to two 2-mile-wide channels for inbound and outbound shipments. Closure of the Bab el-Mandeb could keep tankers from the Persian Gulf from reaching the Suez Canal or SUMED Pipeline, diverting them around the southern tip of Africa, adding to transit time and cost. In addition, European and North African southbound oil flows could no longer take the most direct route to Asian markets via the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb.
So, it's all about the oil. If Iran can control oil flowing out of the Middle East, it can control prices and, I assume it believes, the behavior of those nations dependent upon that oil.
Discussing Iran’s military commitments, Falaki noted that Iran’s proxies are fighting on three major fronts: Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. “One front of this army is in Syria, the other in Iraq, and another in Yemen,” he stated. The first two are well known, though the claim about Yemen reflects the IRGC’s ultimate goal more than facts on the ground. The Houthis are known to be militarily and politically supported by the IRGC, though the Guard may not exercise full control over the Houthis. The IRGC’s objective is to use the Houthis as a foothold in the Arabian Peninsula, on Saudi Arabia’s southern border. The suspicion of the Houthis being a full Iranian proxy is precisely the reason the Saudis and allies have launched a war in Yemen. The Houthis, however, are not IRGC proxies like the Fatemiyoun and Iraqi militias. Houthi leaders have publicly complained about IRGC claims of full support. A senior Houthi official in March lashed out at a senior IRGC commander who claimed that the Guard would support the Houthis anyway it could, criticizing Tehran for “exploiting” the Yemeni file. The Houthis exercise some measure of independence, and do not presently appear to be inclined to serve as the IRGC’s proxy in a perpetual fight against Saudi Arabia, as noted by Yemen scholars. What is clear is the IRGC’s strategy to exploit the war in Yemen, primarily to be a thorn in Saudi Arabia’s side. They want to perpetuate the perception that Houthis are full Iranian proxies to elicit harsher Saudi reactions. The IRGC hopes that the continuation of conflict will leave the Houthis no choice but to fight and fully embrace the IRGC in order to survive.
Good thing we have paid so much money to Iran to advance their peaceful intentions.
Sometime it seems we forget how relatively small an area we are dealing with in the Middle East. Here's a nice U.S. government map I liberated from here that might help put things in some perspective:
PROVENCE seized a large weapons cache from a dhow in the northern Indian Ocean. The incident took place as the ship operated as part of the Combined Maritime Forces Combined Task Force 150 which conducts maritime security and counterterrorism operations. The dhow was spotted heading towards Somalia by PROVENCE's surveillance helicopter while it was undertaking routine surveillance in the northern Indian Ocean. Subsequently, personnel from PROVENCE boarded the dhow
A FREMM- Class Frigate similar to Provence
and ascertained that it was without nationality. PROVENCE then undertook a search of the vessel, during which the weapons were found. The haul included 2,000- AK47 assault rifles, 49-PKM machine guns, along with mortars and anti-tank weapons. As the illicit weapons were deemed to be destined for Somalia, they were seized under the United Nations Security Council mandated arms embargo in accordance with UNSCR 2244 (2015)(www.meretmarine.com/fr;www.dt.bh)
An earlier report of a weapons seizure by HMAS Darwin:
Darwin's VBSS
HMAS Darwin intercepted the vessel approximately 170 nautical miles (313 kilometres) off the coast of Oman and initially conducted a flag verification boarding. After assessing the vessel to be stateless, HMAS Darwin searched the vessel and discovered 1989 AK-47 assault rifles, 100 rocket propelled grenade
HMAS Darwin
launchers, 49 PKM general purpose machine guns, 39 PKM spare barrels and 20 60mm mortar tubes. These weapons were seized from the vessel that was heading towards the Somalia coast.
Interesting, especially in light of this report of a U.S. Navy ship also capturing a dhow full of weapons as reported by the NYTimes:
The U.S. Navy says it has seized a weapons shipment in the Arabian
Sea from Iran likely heading to war-torn Yemen.
The Navy said in a statement Monday that the USS Sirocco on March 28 intercepted and seized the shipment of weapons hidden aboard a small dhow, a type of ship commonly used in the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean.
USS Sirocco
The Navy said the shipment included 1,500 Kalashnikov assault rifles, 200 rocket-propelled grenade launchers and 21 .50-caliber machine guns. It said those aboard the dhow were released after sailors confiscated the arms. A Saudi-led, U.S.-backed coalition is fighting in Yemen against Shiite rebels and their allies there. Officials have linked similar weapons seizures to Iran and the Shiite rebels, though the rebels deny receiving support from the Islamic Republic.(hat tip CDR Salamander)
Business must be good for arms dealers. Every seizure means another round of purchases.
The Soufan Group's Ali Soufan, who served in Yemen as an FBI special agent, puts the conflict in Yemen into regional context. The vacuum of power in countries like Yemen, Soufan says, has allowed extremist groups like Al Qaeda and ISIS to gain influence in several countries in the Middle East, North Africa and Asia.
The US government has withdrawn its military and remaining diplomatic personnel from Yemen as the security situation has spiraled out of control over the past week. Among the forces pulled from Yemen were more than 100 military advisors who were training Yemeni counterterrorism personnel to battle al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. The withdrawal of US forces from Yemen takes place just six months after President Barack Obama described the US strategy of partnering with local Yemeni forces as “one that we have successfully pursued … for years.” The US yanked its military forces Al Anad Air Base after AQAP forces and allied tribes briefly took control of the nearby city of Houta, the capital of Lahj province, on March 20. Al Anad is located just 20 miles north of Houta. Yemeni military forces loyal to ousted President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who is based in the nearby city of Aden, regained control of Houta after AQAP fighters withdrew without a fight.
AQAP’s foray into Houta was preceded by attacks from the rival Islamic State, Shia Houthi rebels, and infighting between forces loyal to President Hadi. Additionally, today Houthi forces have taken control of the city of Taiz, Yemen’s third largest and are now just 120 miles from Aden, The New York Times reported.
On March 20, the Islamic State deployed four suicide bombers at two Houthi mosques in the capital of Sana’a’, killing more than 100 worshiper. The Islamic State threatened to carry out more such attacks.
On the previous day, forces loyal to Hadi battled a rival military commander at Aden’s international airport. Thirteen people were killed before Hadi’s troops took control of the airport, Reuters reported. During the fighting, an aircraft thought to have been flown by the Houthi-led government based in Sana’a struck the presidential palace in Aden.
Hadi fled to Aden in late February after escaping house arrest in Sana’a. He was forced to resign his presidency in January after intense pressure from the Iranian-backed Shiite Houthi rebels, who took control of much of northern and western Yemen late last summer. Hadi has been the US’ biggest supporter in the fight against al Qaeda’s branch in Yemen and Saudi Arabia. He was a vocal supporter of the unpopular drone strikes, which have targeted al Qaeda’s leaders and operatives in Yemen.
Actually, a sensible precaution in getting U.S. folks out of way while the Yemenis continue to abuse each other.
It must be noted that Yemen has a long history of being a area of unrest. As noted back in the 16th Century, here:
The country was in a state of incessant anarchy and discord . . .
Back in the 1960's the country was split in two parts, North Yemen and South Yemen (a/k/a People's Democratic Republic of Yemen). It wasn't until 1990 that there was "one Yemen" under Ali Abdallah Saleh. However, even in its united state, it has been a difficult place with a Shia sect uprising:
The Shia insurgency in Yemen began in June 2004 when dissident cleric Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi, head of the Zaidi Shia sect, launched an uprising against the Yemeni government. The Yemeni government alleged that the Houthis were seeking to overthrow it and to implement Shī'a religious law. The rebels counter that they are "defending their community against discrimination" and government aggression.
Toss in al Qaeda in the the Arabian Peninsula and,
In January 2009, the Saudi and Yemeni al-Qaeda branches merged to form Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is based in Yemen, and many of its members were Saudi nationals who had been released from Guantanamo Bay. Saleh released 176 al-Qaeda suspects on condition of good behaviour, but terrorist activities continued.
Perhaps not the best decision ever made. Saleh gets replaced, but things do not calm down.
Nice summary of events in Yemen from the BBC here:
2014 September - Houthi rebels take control of the capital Sanaa. The UN brokers a peace deal according to which the Houthis agree to withdraw their fighters from cities they have seized once a new national unity government has been formed. 2015 January - The Houthis reject the draft of a new constitution proposed by the government. They seize state TV and clash with troops in the capital, in what the government called a coup attempt. President Hadi and his government resign in protest at the takeover by Houthi rebels of the capital. He later flees to his native city of Aden and rescinds his resignation. 2015 February - Houthi rebels say that they are seizing power and that transitional five-member presidential council will replace President Hadi.
The Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) carried out five suicide bombings in Yemen today. The attacks are the first by ISIS in Yemen, and ISIS’s targeting of Zaydi Shia mosques will fundamentally change political and security dynamics. The Yemeni state is already fragmenting. Yemeni President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who resigned in protest in January, is establishing a rival government in the south to challenge the authority of the one now under Iranian-backed al Houthi control in the capital, Sana’a. The al Houthi-Hadi conflict remained largely a political one until fighter jets bombed Hadi’s residence on March 19. There is now a multi-faceted conflict in Yemen that also includes al Qaeda’s affiliate, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which is fighting both the al Houthis and the Yemeni security forces. The arrival of ISIS in Yemen could fuel a broader sectarian war. (emphasis added)
Yemen sits on the vital sea lanes of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden where shipping routes to and from the Suez Canal are located.
Recent advances by Yemen’s Houthi movement are part of an attempt to take control of the strategic Bab El-Mandeb strait off the Yemeni coast, military sources in the country said on Saturday. This comes as three members of the group and three military personnel were killed on Friday evening as the armed Houthis attempted an attack on the Al-Khoukha military camp just south of the coastal city of Al-Hudaydah, close to the strategic waterway. The Bab El-Mandeb, which connects the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean via the Red Sea and Suez Canal, is one of the most important maritime corridors in the world, through which most of Yemen’s oil exports pass on their way to global markets. *** Retired Yemeni brigadier-general Mohsen Khasrouf told Asharq Al-Awsat the group “has its eyes firmly on the Bab El-Mandeb strait” and that Friday night’s attack represented “the first step on the road to taking control” of the waterway for the Houthis and former president Ali Abdullah Saleh. *** “The Bab El-Mandeb strait is not just related to Yemen’s security but to the security of the whole region,” Khasrouf said, adding that Iran was acting through the Houthis and attempting to gain control of the strait, which in addition to Iranian control of the strait of Hormuz, would give the Islamic Republic a strategic maritime advantage on the Arabian Peninsula’s surrounding waterways.
The Bab El-Madeb strait is on the "chokepoints" identified by the U.S. Energy Information Administration here:
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a chokepoint between the Horn of Africa and the Middle East, and it is a strategic link between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. The strait is located between Yemen, Djibouti, and Eritrea, and connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. Most exports from the Persian Gulf that transit the Suez Canal and SUMED Pipeline also pass through Bab el-Mandeb. An estimated 3.8 million bbl/d of crude oil and refined petroleum products flowed through this waterway in 2013 toward Europe, the United States, and Asia, an increase from 2.9 million bbl/d in 2009. Oil shipped through the strait decreased by almost one-third in 2009 because of the global economic downturn and the decline in northbound oil shipments to Europe. Northbound oil shipments increased through Bab el-Mandeb Strait in 2013, and more than half of the traffic, about 2.1 million bbl/d, moved northbound to the Suez Canal and SUMED Pipeline. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is 18 miles wide at its narrowest point, limiting tanker traffic to two 2-mile-wide channels for inbound and outbound shipments. Closure of the Bab el-Mandeb could keep tankers from the Persian Gulf from reaching the Suez Canal or SUMED Pipeline, diverting them around the southern tip of Africa, adding to transit time and cost. In addition, European and North African southbound oil flows could no longer take the most direct route to Asian markets via the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb.
Exactly what weapons a Yemeni force would use to "control" this strait is a matter of some conjecture. Possibly, long range artillery or anti-ship cruise missiles or sea mines could be used.
One source for such weapons could be Iran, which, of course, just might have some interest in having another means of threatening the flow of oil out of the Arabian Gulf to the West. The Iranian Navy has long self-identified as maintaining a counter-piracy "flotilla" in and around the Red Sea, usually consisting of a semi-frigate and a replenishment vessel (often referred to by the Iranians as a "helicopter carrier"). See here.
On the other hand, the strait also serves as an route for the export of Iranian crude, so if Iran is behind the Houthi effort, it would most likely be planning a contingency operation for an effort to complete blockade oil flowing to the West through the Suez Canal, while leaving access from its port to the East open. This might buy a few days before the tanker fleets readjust their routing around south Africa.
Yemen's Houthi rebels appear to be moving in for the kill against the staggering government of President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi.
Can't tell the players without a scorecard?
The Houthis (who prefer to call themselves Ansar Allah, or the Partisans of God) were operating alongside allies of the former president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was toppled in 2011; together they form the so-called “Popular Committees”, militias that control a growing chunk of northern Yemen. The rolling coup has been a long time gathering. A once-marginalised movement emerging from the Zaydi branch of Shia Islam, whose devotees make up about 40% of Yemen's population, the Houthis fought against the army in the northern province of Saada between 2004 and 2010. *** The turmoil in Yemen is borne of long-standing internal rivalries and the country’s endemic instability. But America and especially Saudi Arabia will see in the Houthis a dangerous extension of Iran’s power. Iran already provides military help to the governments of Iraq and Syria against Sunni insurgents, among them the jihadists of Islamic State, and is the power behind Lebanon’s Hizbullah militia. Iranian officials, for their part, seem more than happy to feed Saudi fears.***
Nice closing sentence:
The consequences of instability in Yemen extend far beyond its borders.
If you are interested in the situation in Yemen, there's no better web resource than Jane Novak's Armies of Liberation.
Go see for yourself.
Oh, wait, why would people with an interest in maritime matters be interested in Yemen? Look where it sits. Red Sea, Bab el Mandeb chokepoint and the Gulf of Aden/Arabian Sea.
Not to mention its ownership of the islands of Socatra off Somalia.
Yemen’s control over one of the most important naval straits in the world, the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb, which is located between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, underscores this geostrategic importance. Commercial liners and oil tankers pass through the strait on their way to and from the Suez Canal. International stakeholders are concerned that al-Qaeda will take advantage of the current transitional conditions in Yemen to threaten shipping and international trade, contributing to the maritime piracy that is already blighting the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.
Just saying.
By the way, two of the successful maritime attacks for which al Qaeda claims credit were in Yemeni waters. See here for info on USS Cole attack in 2000. And here for info on the attack on the tanker MV Limburg.
You might note that Saudi elements were involved in the attack on MV Limburg. And, at the time of the Cole attack, Saudi Osama bin Laden was still a warm body.
Connected reading: See this U.S. House Armed Services Committee Staff report on USS Cole:
The engagement with Yemen was initiated with a clear understanding that Yemen was a sanctuary for terrorists.
Note that cuts in naval logistics forces placed the Cole in Aden:
Reductions in force structure have left the Navy with signifcantly dimished assets. The reduction in the number of oilers, combatants, and weapons available may have led to operational decisions that contributed to the U.S.S. Cole’s vulnerability.
From 500 meters (1,640 feet) away, gunshots erupted from the tanker toward Quanas’s skiff and its unarmed fishermen. Two rounds pierced the water on the motorboat’s starboard side, and a third slammed into Quanas’s face, just under his right eye, according to survivors on the boat and a Yemeni Coast Guard investigation. As the bullet came through the back of his neck, Quanas moaned, held out a hand, collapsed and died. *** Russian soldiers aboard the Norwegian-flagged ship fired the bullets that August day, according to a report from a private security team that was also on the tanker. The soldiers had been temporarily assigned to the Nordic Fighter by their country’s navy to protect the vessel as part of a Russia-led convoy navigating toward the pirate-infested Gulf of Aden, which some 23,000 ships use to move goods between Europe and Asia annually. *** Quanas, who was about 38 when he died, is one of at least seven Yemeni fishermen who have been shot and among five killed since 2009 by soldiers assigned to deter pirates, according to records supplied by the Arabian Peninsula nation. *** The Russian Navy denies responsibility for Quanas’s death, as does the company that owns the Nordic Fighter.
This incident is reported to have occurred in the Red Sea, placing it in interesting jurisdictional territory.
No one is being prosecuted, a noted in the Bloomberg piece:
Generally, incidents in international waters are governed by laws of a ship’s flag state, says Christoph Hasche, managing partner of Fleet Hamburg, a law firm specialized in international shipping and trade. Prosecutors in Norway decided against opening an investigation, in part because of the hurdles in taking soldiers to trial, says Siri Frigaard, chief public prosecutor and director of the Norwegian National Authority for Prosecution of Organized and Other Serious Crime. She said information in the file indicated the Russian soldiers fired their weapons, but declined to provide other details, citing Norwegian police secrecy laws.
While the piece asserts that such incidents are "likely" in a sea with lots of armed men protecting ships from other armed men, it avoids placing the blame squarely on the shoulders of the Somali pirates, whose actions, after all, are the primary reason all those armed men protecting ships are out there.
A senior Qaeda militant in Yemen linked to the deadly bombing of an American warship there in 2000 was killed in an airstrike on Sunday, the Yemeni government said, in the latest sign of an escalating American campaign to counter the terrorist threat there.
Drone attack. Yemen seems to be a counter-terrorist free fire zone.
He will be missed by others who are now being targeted.
Somali pirates hijacked a Yemeni fishing vessel in the pirate-infested waters of the Arab Sea, Yemen's Interior Ministry said Monday.
"The vessel owned by Yemeni fisherman Ahmed Nasser ... has reported a crew of nine Yemeni fishermen on it," the ministry said in a statement on its website. It provided no further information on the condition of the crew.
Well, it being Yemeni and all, you know that it wasn't taken for the big ransom it would bring.
At least two Somali fishermen were wounded in the old coastal district of Gumbah, which is 200km east of Bosasso, the capital of Bari region in the semi-autonomous state of Puntland, RBC Radio reports.
The strike which occurred on midnight of Monday targeted boats on the coast of the district wounding two people, Gure Ali Daad who is the permanent secretary of the district commissioner told RBC Radio by phone.
“The air strike begun late on the night about 1.00 p.m (local time), two planes targeted fisher men returning from the coast. Two fishermen were injured.” Gure Ali Daad said.
“We heard at least two bombardments, we could not identify where the planes from, because they had no lights.” He added.
Mr. Daad denied that his district hosted the pirates operating in Puntland coastal districts where they usually hold ships and receive ransom money.
Interesting. Odd, but interesting.
More in this AFP report:
Last month the European Union authorised its navies to strike Somali pirate equipment on land, with a mandate for warships or helicopters to fire at fuel barrels, boats, trucks or other equipment stowed away on beaches.
However, it was not possible to establish which nation the aircraft belonged to, and the EU force have not yet said they have ever launched such an attack.
A spokesman for Atalanta, the EU anti-piracy mission, said it was "not involved whatsoever" and declined comment on who might be behind the strike.
The United States also operates unmanned drones flying over the Horn of Africa nation, and have reportedly struck suspected Al-Qaeda allied fighters in southern Somalia.
The fate of the once-divided state of Yemen was at a crossroads Monday as senior military and political leaders resigned from their positions and joined a growing anti-government protest to demand the ouster of veteran president Ali Abdullah Saleh.
"Saleh has an opportunity to make a historic decision now," said one of the opposition's youth leaders on al-Jazeera television, which aired footage of what appeared to be the largest demonstration in weeks of unrest in Yemen, an oil and gas exporter and the poorest country on the Arabian Peninsula.
Tanks were deployed outside the presidential palace in the capital Sana'a, where an increasingly isolated Saleh has faced a swell of popular anger over his heavy-handed handling of protests that threaten to unravel the cohesion of a tribal nation that was once split along north-south lines.
***
The US, which considers Saleh a key ally in the fight against al-Qaida militants operating out of Yemen, was compelled to condemn the violence in a strongly worded statement.
President Barack Obama's top counter-terrorism official on Friday condemned "in the strongest terms" the brutal crackdown on protesters saying it would feed extremism.
Piracy in the Red Sea may be becoming a "multinational" business with Yemenis joining Somalis in the lucrative crime, a senior U.S. official said on Monday.
"We are also seeing ... perhaps a new business model occurring in the Red Sea and things that we have traditionally labelled exclusively Somali piracy may in fact be multinational piracy," the top U.S. diplomat for Africa, Johnnie Carson, said.
Pirates involved in last month's killing of four American hostages on a yacht seized near Somalia were both Somalis and Yemenis, while Yemenis were on board a pirate ship recently captured by a Danish warship, he said.
"We may be seeing a situation, as yet unconfirmed, where we have individuals from several nations on the periphery, from states that are not governed well ... being involved in piracy," Assistant U.S. Secretary of State Carson told reporters in London.
***
But Carson said the problem of Somali piracy would not be resolved on the high seas. "We recognize that the area of the Red Sea is enormous and that you can put hundreds of boats out there," he said.
The problem could only be resolved "by ending the impunity that exists on land. It will only be resolved when Somalia has a government with a security force, a police apparatus, a court system and laws that allow it to prevent and prosecute pirates who seek to carry out activities offshore," he said.
Well, it might have helped to have jumped firmly on this problem several years ago, before it exploded into something that has a "business model" tied to it.
Since that didn't happen, now the problem requires "a little less talk and a lot more action."
The Somali pirates hijacked a Chinese-flagged commercial ship off Yemen's western city port of al- Hudaida in the Red Sea, Chinese military attache to Yemen confirmed to Xinhua on Saturday.
The Chinese military confirmed that the Chinese-flagged commercial ship, which was registered in Hongkong, China, had been hijacked by the Somali pirates off the Yemeni coast, Chinese military attache to Yemen told Xinhua.
The ship was then moved by the pirates towards the Somali coasts, he added, without providing how many people were on board or the date of the hijack.
Earlier, Yemeni Interior Ministry said the Chinese ship called "Tien Hau" was attacked by the pirates some 11 nautical miles (20. 4 kilometers) off the Yemeni island of Al-Tair off the city port of al-Hudaida.
Meanwhile, a security source at the ministry told Xinhua "the security operation room of the ministry received unconfirmed information that an anti-piracy international navy fleet might intercept the pirates and help release the Chinese ship."
"We are following up the situation to confirm the release of the Chinese ship, as coast guard boats were dispatched to track the ship and pirates," he told Xinhua on condition of anonymity.
"The hijack took place early today, but we do not have exact information about the number of the ship's crew," he added.
The Iranian Navy fleet deployed in the Gulf of Aden thwarted a pirate attack on a Chinese trade ship with timely action.
According to a statement issued by the Navy's Public Relations Office on Saturday, the Navy's 12th fleet of warships initiated timely action after it received an alert message from the Hong Kong vessel and managed to thwart the pirates' attack after heavy clashes.
The trade vessel, namely VRYK3, with 32 crews onboard had started its journey from Italy to Australia.
So, either the Tien Hau has been captured or liberated or both or something.
More details as they are revealed.
UPDATE 6 Feb 11: Report that the ship was the victim of an attempted, but failed hijack attempt here.
