Disaster Prep Wednesday: Trapped in Car Due to Blizzard?

What if you are on the road and there's a big, honkin' "Monster Winter Storm"? And you are stuck in your car and are so far out in the boondocks so far that sunlight has to be piped in even on the best of days? Like these folks?:

Rescuers on Wednesday pulled a family from a sport utility vehicle that had been buried in a snowdrift on a rural highway in the southwestern state of New Mexico for nearly two days.

State police said rescuers had to dig through 4 feet of ice and snow to free the Higgins family, whose red GMC Yukon got stuck on the highway when a blizzard moved through the area Monday.

Rescuers found David and Yvonne Higgins and their 5-year-old daughter Hannah clinging to each other and lethargic early Wednesday morning. The family is recovering at Miners Colfax Medical Center in Raton.

First: Before you travel, check out your car "winter emergency kit" and make sure you are covered for the dreaded "worst case scenario." Here are some suggestions from New Jersey:

Keep these items in your car:
Flashlights with extra batteries
First aid kit with pocket knife
Necessary medications
Several blankets
Sleeping bags
Extra newspapers for insulation
Plastic bags (for sanitation)
Matches
Extra set of mittens, socks, and a wool cap
Rain gear and extra clothes
Small sack of sand for generating traction under
wheels
Small shovel
Small tools (pliers, wrench, screwdriver)
Booster cables
Set of tire chains or traction mats
Cards, games, and puzzles
Brightly colored cloth to use as a flag
Canned fruit and nuts
Nonelectric can opener
Bottled water

Another list from Ready.gov includes some other things:

First Aid Kit: remember any necessary medications, baby formula and diapers if you have a small child
Food: non-perishable food such as canned food, and protein rich foods like nuts and energy bars
Radio: battery or hand cranked
Ice scraper
Charged Cell Phone: and car charger

Then, if you have space, don't forget the kids, the luggage and the presents for Granny. Really, NJ? "Several blankets" and "sleeping bags?" Oh, yeah, worst case ... which means I'd cut down on the real blankets and go with space blankets and/or sleeping bags.

Probably ought to have some more emergency food. And if you have pet with you? Don't forget food for Fido or Fluffy. We don't want them looking at the baby and drooling, do we?

Some more suggestions for a car kit on a Weather Channel video here, but while the the stuff shown is nice, it is also pricey. Not saying your life isn't worth a $400 set of Thule quick chains, but ...

At any rate, Popular Mechanics has a 2013 (so last year) list of "7 Things You Must Carry in Your Car This Winter":

If you already have an emergency kit, well done. Essentials such as first-aid supplies, jumper cables, gloves, a flashlight, duct tape, a tow strap, and some simple tools should already be in your trunk—if not for daily driving, then at least when you set out on a road trip. Here are some winter-specific items to include for times when the roads are covered in slush.

Put them on the drive tires!

Snow Socks: When you unexpectedly need extra traction, snow socks are a space-saving, temporary alternative to snow chains. These fabric doughnuts fit easily over the drive tires and can increase grip enough to extricate a stuck car or get it up a slippery hill.

Spare Phone Charger: The cellphone is your primary means of rescue in today's interconnected world. But to reach help you need juice: A charging cord is a good idea, but a hand-crank charger that works away from the car or when the car battery is dead is an even better one.

Hand Warmers and Wool Blanket: Your car provides shelter, but you don't want to run the engine—you have a limited amount of fuel and deadly exhaust may find its way into the cabin. To keep warm, use a blanket, supplemented by hand warmers when it gets really cold.

LED Flashers/Flares: Battery-powered lights work for hours and are great for alerting other drivers if your car is on the side of the road. Flares may seem antiquated, but the heat they put out prevents them from being obscured and buried by driving snow. Plus, in an extreme emergency they can be used to start a warming or signaling fire. Flares are usually sold in packs; make sure you have at least three sticks.

Food and Drink: It's exceptionally rare for anyone to be stranded during a winter blizzard for more than a day. Long-term rations aren't really necessary, but keeping a few energy bars and a plastic bottle or two of sugary energy drink wouldn't hurt. Why the latter? The electrolytes and sugars significantly lower the concoction's freezing point, ensuring you'll still have liquid when you need it.

Shovel: While it might not look like much, a compact folding shovel is plenty big enough to use when digging your car out of the snow.

Windshield De-Icer: An extra bottle of this could mean the difference between seeing the road and seeing yourself parked in a snow bank. Plus, in emergencies you can use the stuff to melt ice on the road or any frozen car parts.

For me, compact gear is better than filling up your car with a whole bunch of equipment, so I'm good with the Weather Channel video and the Popular Mechanics list. A set of "snow socks" or even emergency tire chains can be had for under $100 if you check Amazon for "snow socks." Hand warmer thingies? You might get a box of these or their equivalent at Wal-Mart. There are body warmers, too. Just put a few in the kit, they don't take up a lot of space. My wife, who seems to get colder faster than I do, loves those things. Small folding shovel? Always a good idea, year round. I like the Gerber because it's not a one trick pony and is a good camping shovel, too.

Why the shovel? Not only to keep your tailpipe clear if the car is running, but also to keep the snow from blocking your exit door. Back to the Higgins family:

He was able to keep the car running for a couple of hours, but when he went to get out to clear the exhaust pipe, his door was blocked.

See, if he only had a shovel in the car. Costs a lot less than skis or a DVD player, too.

Second: If you are planning to travel to areas that are subject to heavy snow blizzard conditions, you really ought to have checked the weather forecasts immediately before you get on the road. Look at the forecasts for the areas through which you'll be traveling. And think a little. If you are headed for the Upper Peninsula in Michigan and there are blizzard warnings, well, is this trip really necessary? Headed to the mysterious interior of Nebraska on local roads in a heavy snow storm? Why? But if you do have to travel to such places- there is no excuse for being unprepared to spend up to a few days trapped in the interior of your car out in the middle of nowhere because of "bad luck." By the way, "bad luck" has a way of turning into "dead" if you haven't taken a few precautions for your safety. Yes, it is unlikely that you will be stuck for days, but it can happen.

Good idea to send a travel route plan to your hosts at the destination and to a neighbor or friend. Email is cheap, maps are online and you can let them know when you leave and where you should be when along the route. Cuts down on the time the cops have to look for you.

Third: What happens if you do get stuck in the snow? If the car is still running, good. Perhaps, following the suggestions here you can get the car free. FEMA has some more thoughts:

Some parts of the country experience extreme winter weather including blizzards. If a blizzard traps you in your car, do you know how to survive?

Taking the following steps can help you stay safe until you are found:

- Don’t walk around in the snow to look for help. You might lose your way or become exhausted;
- Remember to occasionally check your tailpipe to make sure it’s free of snow. Clean the pipe to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning when the engine is running.
- Keep yourself moving! A car offers very little room, but exercise is essential; and
- Make the car visible for a rescue! Hang bright colored cloth or plastic from the windows. If the snow has stopped falling, open the hood of the car as a signal of distress.

If you have a cell phone call 911 to ask for help. Do not hang up until you know whom you have spoken with and what will happen next. You can also sign up for wireless emergency alerts before you travel to receive life-saving alerts wherever you are.

Gotta love the New Jersey advice:

If you are stranded in a remote area you may need to leave the car on foot after the blizzard passes.

Stay in the car.

Huh? Well, one or the other. Perhaps they mean: "Stay in the car during the blizzard so you won't get confused and lost in the storm and when the storm is over and you can see more than a short distance, you might have to trek out to find some help."

If the car is not running - still stick with it. It's shelter from the storm and body heat and a those hand/body warmers will probably help keep it warmer than the outside. Plus, it's generally easier to spot a car that it is a person. Put up a flag of bright material that sticks up above the snow. If you have sheets of plastic, you can use them to cover at least the passenger compartment to help add a layer of insulation (and an air gap?) Remember those newspapers from the NJ list? Use them as insulation to the windows and floor. A little duct tape might help you stick them in place. Bundle up and cuddle with your friends and family to share warmth. But keep shoveling out an escape path. The exercise will do you good.

Now, if you are one of those "adventurers" who decided that a backwoods lumber road in the mountains was a great place to try out your new FWD/AWD adventure mobile and you failed to take along stuff to keep you alive - welcome to the Darwin Awards.

If you have the other gear mentioned above, I would still suggest, however, that even if your new toy has a power winch, it's a good idea to have a manual "come along winch" in the vehicle. Make sure you get one that will handle the weight of your vehicle. Or those tree limbs knocked down by the snow that are blocking your road.

Good luck!

Al Qaeda Threatens Ocean Chokepoints! Again! Okay maybe the third or fourth time. Or more.

It seems Al Qaeda puts out a "slick" publicity flyer called "Resurgence" and in its latest issue there's an article "On Targeting the Achilles Heel of Western Economies" - those being the narrow places in the ocean through which Middle East oil is taken on ships. AQ suggests shutting those narrow places down to ruin the western economies.

You can read all about it at the previous link to the article by Sarah Kaufman at Vocativ.com. This "danger Will Robinson" theme was also picked up by Bill Gertz here.

The evil wits at AQ HQ have decided again that there are narrow places in the oceans through ships pass on their way from picking up oil to delivery points. In excited tones as if were something like an original thought, the AQ author suggests something could be placed blocking those - let's call them "chokepoints" - and thus causing a halt to all shipping of oil from the Middle East and driving the West to its knees. You know:

"Even if a single supertanker… were to be attacked in one of the chokepoints or hijacked and scuttled in one of these narrow sea lanes, the consequences would be phenomenal…"

Why, yes, Mr. Hamza Khalid, the author of this fantasy, it would be "phenomenal" though not like you might be thinking.

Let's go back in history. Seems like in 2004, al Qaeda was reported to have a "navy" of 15 ships as presented in Richard Minter's book, Shadow War:

How America captured the “al Qaeda admiral” and stopped his fifteen-ship fleet from being used as floating bombs.

Back in 2005, there appeared a series of "terrorists to close sea lanes" pieces which I addressed here and republish, in part, below:

A Foreign Affairs article from November/December [2004] "Terrorism Goes to Sea" sets out some interesting information:

Since many shipping companies do not report incidents of piracy, for fear of raising their insurance premiums and prompting protracted, time-consuming investigations, the precise extent of piracy is unknown. But statistics from the International Maritime Bureau (IMB), a piracy watchdog, suggest that both the frequency and the violence of acts of piracy have increased in recent years. In 2003, ship owners reported 445 attacks, in which 92 seafarers were killed or reported missing and 359 were assaulted and taken hostage. (Ships were hijacked in 19 of these cases and boarded in 311.) From 2002 to 2003, the number of those killed and taken hostage in attacks nearly doubled. Pirates have also increased their tactical sophistication, often surrounding a target ship with several boats and firing machine guns and antitank missiles to force it to stop. As Singapore's Deputy Prime Minister Tony Tan recently warned, "piracy is entering a new phase; recent attacks have been conducted with almost military precision. The perpetrators are well-trained, have well laid out plans." The total damage caused by piracy-due to losses of ships and cargo and to rising insurance costs-now amounts to $16 billion per year.

and

Whereas land targets are relatively well protected, the super-extended energy umbilical cord that extends by sea to connect the West and the Asian economies with the Middle East is more vulnerable than ever. Sixty percent of the world's oil is shipped by approximately 4,000 slow and cumbersome tankers. These vessels have little protection, and when attacked, they have nowhere to hide. (Except on Russian and Israeli ships, the only weapons crewmembers have today to ward off attackers are high-powered fire hoses and spotlights.)

However, the article is from the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security whose work I have found on another occasion to be good, "but a little overly dramatic." I make the same minor complaint here. For example, whereas the following is generally true, the potential disaster of a scuttled ship in a narrow strait is a bit overwrought as I'll explain later.

If a single tanker were attacked on the high seas, the impact on the energy market would be marginal. But geography forces the tankers to pass through strategic chokepoints, many of which are located in areas where terrorists with maritime capabilities are active. These channels-major points of vulnerability for the world economy-are so narrow at points that a single burning supertanker and its spreading oil slick could block the route for other vessels. Were terrorist pirates to hijack a large bulk carrier or oil tanker, sail it into one of the chokepoints, and scuttle it to block the sea-lane, the consequences for the global economy would be severe: a spike in oil prices, an increase in the cost of shipping due to the need to use alternate routes, congestion in sea-lanes and ports, more expensive maritime insurance, and probable environmental disaster. Worse yet would be several such attacks happening simultaneously in multiple locations worldwide.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is 18 miles wide at its narrowest point.

While there are some very narrow major waterways (the Bosphorus, for example - the U.S. Department of Energy produces a handy "chokepoint" list), for the most part, the Strait of Malacca is is 1.5 miles (7000+ feet) wide at its narrowest spot. Even a 1200 foot long ship placed sideways in that channel leaves some room to maneuver around it. The Strait of Hormuz is wider still. As we learned in the "tanker wars" these large tankers are hard to sink completely.

The Exocets and other small missiles generally failed to "kill" large merchant ships. They did, however, significant damage to 11 out of 17 tankers hit in 1984, which displaced over 50,000 tons, and slightly damaged six. The Exocets were more effective against smaller vessels, and against more complex or automated ships (the automated Safina al-Arab had to be written off because her machinery was too sophisticated to repair), and against ships where the hit happened to trigger a fire.

(Tanker War and the Lessons of Naval Conflict). Not that it can't happen.

And if it does, as the DOE puts it,

If the strait were closed, nearly half of the world's fleet would be required to sail further, generating a substantial increase in the requirement for vessel capacity. All excess capacity of the world fleet might be absorbed, with the effect strongest for crude oil shipments and dry bulk such as coal. Closure of the Strait of Malacca would immediately raise freight rates worldwide. More than 50,000 vessels per year transit the Strait of Malacca.

But any such closure would be relatively short-lived, given the incentives to salvage, raise or raze a ship interfering with the free passage through the Strait. How long would it take to clear such a ship? While the vessel didn't completely sink, in September 2003 the bulk carrier "Sea Liberty" was involved in a collision in the narrowest part of the Singapore Strait and was salvaged.

The vessel Hyundai No.105 (40,000 GRT) sank just outside the Singapore Strait in May 2004. In fact, the Singapore Strait is a busy, dangerous place and warnings have been issued like this one from Tokio Marine Nichido:

The Strait of Singapore in one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world, being the main seaway between ports in Europe and the Middle East and those in the Far East and South East Asia.

Singapore is the busiest port in the world with an average of 350 ships arriving per day. At any one time there are more than 800 ships in the port-a ship arrives or departs every 3 minutes. It is the focal port for some 366 shipping lines with links to 3,600 ports worldwide.

With congestion in many parts due to a daily traffic of 400 vessels on average, the Strait has become prone to ship collisions, oil spillage, strandings and sinkings. Therefore it is extremely important for ships to navigate safely in the Strait to avoid accidents which would adversely affect the three littoral states of Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore and the marine environment.

These collisions and sinkings do not seem to interfere with other vessels transiting the Malacca Strait and its "subparts" such as the Singapore Strait.

Obviously, terrorism at sea is a serious threat and one that requires significant preventative measures. In the "worst case" scenerio, it is possible that some interference with international trade is likely. However, the probability of that worst case- a "perfect storm" of sea-going terrorism must be measured against other, more likely results.

Update: It occurs to me that since I have asserted that the seizure and scuttling of a ship in a narrow strait may not result in the shut down of the flow of world oil and other goods, it is incumbent on me to posit about what I would be more concerned.  Again, I am concerned with the "seizure and sink" scenario but just not as concerned as I am with some other possible terrorist acts involving ships. These areas of greater concern include the seizure of a major ship and turning it into a weapon - very similar, in fact, to the seizure of commercial airliners and turning them into guided missiles for the accomplishment of an act of war. Note that I am distinguishing between "terrorism" and "war." Al Qaeda has not declared "terrorism" on the United States - it has declared war.

Osama bin Laden has a vision of his objectives in that war:

The principal stated aims of al-Qaeda are to drive Americans and American influence out of all Muslim nations, especially Saudi Arabia; destroy Israel; and topple pro-Western dictatorships around the Middle East. Bin Laden has also said that he wishes to unite all Muslims and establish, by force if necessary, an Islamic nation adhering to the rule of the first Caliph

cite. His strategy includes the economic crippling of the United States in such a way that it will be unable or unwilling to continue its presence in the Middle East. He seeks to raise the cost of our presence to a level beyond which we are willing to pay in blood and dollars. Part of his plan is to demonstrate the weakness of the U.S. and thus rally new members to the cause. 9/11 was both about hurting the US economy and showing that the "Great Satan" could be attacked. The joyous reaction in many parts of the world to the fall of the World Trade Center did demonstrate the power of the second prong. In my view, Al Qaeda needs another major "victory" against the U.S. As set out in prior posts, one such possible victory would be the attack and damaging of a major symbol of U.S. power - such as an aircraft carrier (the attack on the USS Cole and the failed attack on the USS The Sullivans show how much attacking these power symbols mean to Al Qaeda). In one of my posts, I indicated my major concern

What if the terrorists have or (use their speedboat tactics to) seize a "neutral" freighter or tanker and then use that ship as either a SIED (seaborne improvised explosive device) or as a "ram" to attack to attack our ships (for this purpose, I believe a tanker to be their preferred vessel because of the potential for fire and pollution and the attendant increase in publicity and spectacular television coverage -so for convenience I will use the word "tanker" alone to refer to this threat).

So, my concern is less with the damaging of international trade in the Malacca Strait (much of which flows to Japan and China) by blocking the chokepoints than with the use of such restricted areas (with limited maneuver room) as an area to engage in a vigorous attack on a prime U.S. warship in such a manner as to be visible to the world in an effort to rally more people to the Al Qaeda cause.

Well, a AQ again threatened to close the "chokepoints" as I set out in 2008 Al Qaeda Calling for Chokepoint Terrorism. See also 2007's "Al Qaeda's Maritime Threat" an essay by Akiva Lorenz of the Institute for Counter-Terrorism.

The point being that this AQ maritime threat is not new. Nor is it, as I hoped I made clear in my 2005 post, as easy as many people seem to think to cause a major disruption to the flow of oil by sinking one, two or even more ships.

In fact, take a look at the adjacent SLOC map of South East Asia - does it look like there is only one way to Japan, South Korea or China which can be blocked? Not to me. It just looks like the Strait of Malacca is the shortest route of the alternatives. And, directing your attention to the map at the top of this post, you might note that there is a way around the southern tip of Africa that allows oil to bypass the Bab el Mandeb. It just costs more to use that route.

Want to close the Strait of Hormuz? US EIA says:

At its narrowest point, the Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide, but the width of the shipping lane in either direction is only two miles wide, separated by a two-mile buffer zone.

Let's see that 2+2+2= 6 miles of sea you want to close? You better have lots of ships to sink to do that.

FYI, AQ, there has been a revolution in the oil and gas business due to fracking. If the U.S. isn't now capable of being completely energy independent, with the help of its neighbors, Canada and Mexico, it is surely not dependent on Middle East oil as you suggest. Hell, you might just drive us to build more nuclear power plants to generate electricity for our new electric cars and really slow our imports.

So, nice try, AQ, but what you've set out is a poor strategic plan that is driven by a poor understanding of the geographic realities and of the current world energy situation. In addition to which if you were lucky enough to affect the flow of oil, you probably wouldn't just have the U.S. to worry about - seems like China and a whole lot of other countries get a lot of oil through those chokepoints. It might just make them mad enough to come looking for you in a serious way instead of sitting back while the U.S. and some of its allies carry the laboring oar.

Just saying.

Hmmm -"Resurgence" sounds like something you take Gas-X alleviate.

South China Sea Fuel Pirates: More and More

Interesting article from the Eurasia Review "Syphoning Confidence: Piracy And Fuel Theft In Southeast Asia":

Most serious incidents involve illegal fuel syphoning in the Straits of Malacca and South China Sea. Ten small tankers were hit between April and September: Sri Phang Nga, Orapin 4, Budi Mersa Dua, Ai Maru, Moresby 9, Oriental Glory, VL14, Orapin 2, Pentrader and Naniwa Maru. To put this in perspective, since 2011 a total of 18 syphoning attacks have been reported of which 13 were successful.

Most syphoning attacks occur at night, well outside Singapore’s port limits frequently in the less-policed waters north of Indonesia’s Bintan island. Small product tankers under 5,000 tons are boarded by small groups of lightly armed pirates and taken into the South China Sea; their names sometimes re-painted and communications equipment disabled en route to a rendezvous point with a second vessel. Once alongside, the fuel can be offloaded within hours.

Shipments of Marine Gas Oil (MGO) are targeted for several reasons. First, MGO sold illicitly is lucrative, fetching above US$500 per tonne. Illegal bunkering is a perennial problem beyond port limits. In remote areas, the black market may be the easiest way to obtain marine fuel. Second, loaded product tankers present inviting targets, being low, slow and easily trackable. Third, many attacks betray the hallmarks of preplanned, syndicate involvement: syphoning operations are well organised, conducted with apparent foreknowledge of the cargo fuel type and how to dispose of it. Crews are normally unharmed.

The author of the piece correctly points out:

Targeted syphoning attacks, with strong indications of insider involvement, do not pose a generalised threat to shipping or the energy trade, although attacks do still occur on vulnerable vessel types elsewhere within the Straits of Malacca Traffic Separation Scheme.

In other words, this "cargo jacking" from small tankers is a crime similar to, but different from the "normal" level of piracy in the area discussed. This "normal" level has been steadily decreasing as a result of various regional/international actions and agreement.

That "normal" included a whole bunch of "snatch and grab" events where a couple of robbers would get on board a ship and steal those things not nailed down. In a few cases, there was armed robbery in which the master and crew were robbed while being threatened usually, in these waters, at knife point. After getting what they could, the robbers would rush away.

Now, however, we see far better organized and orchestrated schemes which involve the hijacking of a ship, bringing another "pirate" ship alongside and transferring all or part of the hijacked ship's cargo to the "pirate" tanker. All of which takes organizational skill and, presumably, a significant criminal enterprise to support this complex task and to have a ready market for the stolen cargo.

I'll leave it to you to decide how much local corruption might play a role in such matters. It is touched on in the article linked to above.

If you take a look at the ship image above, you can see why these little tankers are so vulnerable to piracy - they sit low in the water (easy for pirates to board from small boats), have small crews, little or no security and carry valuable cargo.

Just to help you have a frame of reference, here's the general level of piracy/sea robbery in the vicinity of Singapore since the start of the year as depicted at the valuable ICC CCS IMB Live Piracy Map site. First, the big view of the area:

You might note that the Strait of Malacca itself is pretty clear of attacks and boardings, which are now concentrated in the anchorages and holding areas at the southern end of the strait.

Let's drill down a bit:

Here's what you need to know - every single one of the red markers in these maps is a hijacking of a product or bunkering tanker.  Yep, even that one up there near Kuala Lumpur.

Let's go back to the fact set out in the cited article:

Ten small tankers were hit between April and September [2014]... To put this in perspective, since 2011 a total of 18 syphoning attacks have been reported of which 13 were successful.

So - of the 18 hijacking since 2011, 10 occurred in those 5 months of 2014.

As the gangs involved got more experience and developed their markets, it can be assumed they got more aggressive.

Somali Pirates - An interesting look at the problem

 Got an email suggesting that my readers might be interested in looking at information about a movie and interactive web site. While I normally blow off providing most free advertising, my initial thought is that this is worth looking at. Here's part of the email:

Last Hijack Interactive is an award-winning online transmedia experience by Submarine Channel that allows you to explore the hijacking of a ship in Somalia. Showing both the Western and the Somali perspective on piracy through the eyes of a pirate, a captain, the captain’s wife, a lawyer, a journalist and a security expert, Last Hijack Interactive allows you to uncover the complex realities behind piracy in Somalia.

Combining live-action video and animation, the interactive experience gives the user the opportunity to navigate the real stories of these people, building to the hijack itself and the resulting aftermath. What are the causes and consequences of piracy? And what is the impact of piracy in Somalia and in Western countries? Together with an elegant use of data visualization, Last Hijack Interactive provides a unique, informative and eye-opening glimpse into the murky world of hijackings in Somalia.

Last Hijack Interactive can be experienced in English, German and Dutch. We invite you to check it out at lasthijack.com
****
Directors Femke Wolting and Tommy Pallotta take you through the main features of Last Hijack Interactive in the following vimeo video Last Hijack Interactive - Walkthrough.

In October the project won the Prix Europa for best online production. The international jury praised the journalistic quality, seamless integration of video, animations, and data visualizations and the "extremely user-friendly" interface. And in November at the Tous Ecrans Festival in Geneve Last Hijack Interactive won two prizes: the Best International Transmedia Award (shared with The Doghouse) and the youth jury prize for the best Transmedia Award (shared with Love Hotel Experience).

Last Hijack Interactive is the counterpart to Last Hijack, a feature length film combining animation with documentary storytelling directed by Femke Wolting and Tommy Pallotta. Last Hijack is now available across all leading Video On Demand Platforms in North America - including Amazon Instant Video, Google Play, iTunes, Movies On Demand on Cable, Sony Playstation, Vimeo On Demand, Vudu and XBOX Video.

You can go look and decide for yourself.

Saturday Is Heinlein Quote Day #33

Never worry about theory as long as the machinery does what it's supposed to do.

Waldo & Magic, Inc. (1950)

Video: Cruisers and Pirates Don't Mix Well

gCaptain has a video up here with commentary.

Seems like an older video that first appeared on YouTube in 2012.

Really not much of mystery - looks like prospective pirates misidentified a potential target and took on the wrong ship. Some of them seemed to have paid a severe price for their error.

Here is the YouTube version:



Don't know the ship, but this is a video shot at night, looks like IR. Camera looks like it might be on an aircraft or perhaps on a ship some distance from the events depicted. It also appears the putative "pirates" fired first.

gCaptain get credit for the Tico class cruiser ID. Doesn't appear the cruiser was going very fast, so it may have been trolling for just such an attack.

On Midrats 16 November 14, "Episode 254: John A. Nagl: 13 Years into the War"

 Please join us on Sunday, 16 November 2014 at 5pm (EST, US) for Midrats Episode 254: John A. Nagl: 13 Years into the War:

13 years into the long war, what have we learned, relearned, mastered, forgotten, and retained for future use? What have we learned about ourselves, the nature of our latest enemy, and the role of our nation? What have those who have served learned about their nation, their world, and themselves?

Iraq, Afghanistan, the Islamic State, and the ever changing global national security ecosystem, where are we now, and where are we going?

Our guest for the full hour to discuss this and more will be returning guest John Nagl, LTC US Army (Ret.) D.Phl, using his most recent book Knife Fights: A Memoir of Modern War in Theory and Practice as the starting point for our discussion.

Dr. Nagl is the Ninth Headmaster of The Haverford School. Prior to assuming responsibility for the School in July 2013, he was the inaugural Minerva Research Professor at the U.S. Naval Academy. He was previously the President of the Center for a New American Security. He graduated from the United States Military Academy Class in 1988 and served as an armor officer for 20 years. Dr. Nagl taught at West Point and Georgetown University, and served as a Military Assistant to two Deputy Secretaries of Defense. He earned his Master of the Military Arts and Sciences Degree from the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College and his doctorate from Oxford University as a Rhodes Scholar.

Dr. Nagl is the author of Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife: Counterinsurgency Lessons from Malaya and Vietnam and was on the team that produced the U.S. Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual.

Join us live if you can or pick the show up later by clicking here. You can also pick the show up later at out iTunes page here, where you can also find the archive of all our previous shows.

Friday Fun Film: "Carrier Action Off Korea (1954)"

Naval aviation during the Korean War is the subject of this 1954 documentary. Part 1 begins with footage of the armistice signed on 27 July 1953. The film then moves back in time to look at the first half of the war, and the impact of American aircraft carriers operating off the coast of Korea. It features extensive aerial footage of combat operations. Source: Naval History and Heritage Command, Photographic Section, UMO-18.

Egypt: Naval Vessel Attacked at Sea - Terrorism or Smugglers?

Attack on a Egyptian naval unit reported as "8 navy personnel missing after boat attack":

The Egyptian armed forces destroyed four “hostile” boats containing what the military called “terrorist elements,” and arrested 32 people off the coast of Damietta governorate, the military said in a statement on Wednesday night.

“Hostile vessels” opened fire on an Egypt navy boat while it was on patrol, the military spokesperson’s office said on Wednesday. An exchange of gunfire took place between the “terrorist elements” and the navy, who had called for back-up forces.

According to state-owned media, four of the attackers were killed during the clashes. The military has not yet confirmed.

One navy boat was set on fire, and five navy personnel were injured and taken to a military hospital. The military also stated that eight of its navy personnel are missing and military forces are currently searching for them.

More here:

It was not immediately clear what the naval boat was doing so far offshore, and whether it was on a routine patrol anticipated by fighters.

A military source told the AFP news agency the attackers used "fishing boats" and did not appear to have deployed rocket propelled grenades or heavier weapons.

The Mediterranean Sea is used by drug traffickers and illegal migrant smugglers who have been intercepted by the Egyptian navy in the past.

There have been no recorded attacks at sea by the Sinai-based armed fighters who launched an insurgency after the army overthrew President Mohamed Morsi last year.

And more, including "analysis" at BBC News:

If this was a militant attack in the Mediterranean, as the Egyptian army has said, then it's the opening of a new front.
***
The incident happened north of the port of Damietta, where armed people traffickers are known to operate. Did they clash with the navy to protect their lucrative trade?

Map with icon on it is my guess of where the incident occurred. Don't bet on its accuracy.

Sea Piracy and Armed Robbery at Sea: Not Going Away

Maritime Security firm Nexus Consulting President Kevin Doherty discusses the current state of piracy in this BoombergTV video here. Select transcript portions (my corrections included):

Q: How brave [grave] is the threat of piracy today compared with, say, the time frame around the Captain Phillips kidnapping?

A: I would say it is more prevalent.

On a global scale, definitely the incidences have increased threefold over the past two years.

We have locked down Somali piracy, but we still have Nigeria and Southeast Asia heating up.
***
Q: How much is lost due to piracy disruption each year?

A: Hot [Well over] $100 million [billion] in losses and expenses.

Q: $100 billion?

A: That's right.

Q: Who is paying for that?

A: We all are, really.
***
Q: Are you saying that the Nigerian government is in cahoots?

A: I don't have any direct evidence at this point in time, but i would say that they certainly make it difficult to protect themselves and the commercial vessels.

Interesting viewing and a dose of reality in the world of Nigerian (and SE Asia) piracy/sea robbery. I like Kevin's pointed suggestion that there's a whole lot of corruption going on out there that makes some of the world less safe.

In other news, a claim that there was some pirate-like activity in the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, Pirates Attempt to Hijack Israeli Cargo Ship At Sea:

One of the ZIM shipping company's cargo ships was attacked by pirates Wednesday afternoon in the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb, adjacent to Somalia.

Security guards stationed aboard the transport ship repelled the attack by the group of pirates who attempted to abduct the ship while in the middle of open waters.

The incident occurred as the Israeli ship made its way from East Asia back to Israel. The ship sailed into an ambush when two pirate ships snuck up alongside the ZIM vessel, and the pirates attempted to get on board and take control of the ship.

Been a couple of these "attempts" near the Bab recently. Map from the Live Piracy Map site of the ICC CCS IMB.

UPDATE: Nice BBC News report on West Africa piracy here:

***
In most cases of West African piracy, the pirates want the cargo, not the crew.

This means levels of violence are higher than they are off the coast of Somalia, where the pirates need to keep the crew alive in order to obtain ransoms.
***
Underwriters have designated the waters off Nigeria, Togo and Benin a "war risk area", pushing up insurance costs.

This ultimately affects the cost of food, oil and anything else that is transported by sea from West Africa.

BBC News has a documentary on this topic coming up:

Tune in to the BBC World Service at 19:05 GMT on Saturday 15 November to listen to the documentary Chasing West Africa's Pirates. It will also be available to listen to online or as a download.

Disaster Prep Wednesday: Buy that Insurance!

Look, there are whole bunch of non-profit and governmental agencies that will rush to the site of a disaster and provide short-term aid - food, water, and some other gifts - but none of them - no, not the Red Cross, not FEMA, not the Baptist Men, the Salvation Army or any of the others - will ever come close to restoring you back to the situation you were in before the disaster. For that, you really, really need to have purchased insurance. The very purpose of insurance is to put you back as you were before the disaster:

Homeowner's insurance is designed to offer you protection in case of loss or damage to your home and property. A typical homeowner's insurance policy includes protection for both the house and the property that it sits on, as well as other buildings or structures on that property. Most homeowner's insurance policies also provide protection for any items within the house or other structures. In the event of damage or theft, you are reimbursed for the cost of repairs or replacement as well as the time you must spend away from home while repairs are being done.

If you don't own your residence, you should buy "renters insurance":

Many renters who go without are under the mistaken impression that their landlord’s policy covers their possessions.

“As a renter, if your personal property is damaged, you’d have to have a renter’s policy to get coverage,” said John Capuano, an associate insurance examiner with the New York State Department of Financial Services. “The landlord’s policy is not going to cover your damages.”

Many landlords will not lease a unit unless the prospective tenant offers up proof of renters insurance.

I've been on a couple of Red Cross apartment fire responses where that has been very comforting to the tenants whose apartment just got turned into rubble. These policies are pretty inexpensive, too. Nice to know that big screen television and various computers, game consoles and mattresses can be replaced. A little planning ahead works wonders.

However, unless you add "replacement value" coverage, you will only receive a dollar amount covering what you might have paid for your stuff. Thus, as set out here:

When you file a homeowners claim, the insurance company calculates how much to pay you by evaluating the cost to replace your property with new property of the same kind and quality. But here's the critical distinction: If your policy covers your personal property (your home's contents) for its actual cash value, the insurance company deducts depreciation from your personal property's overall value before arriving at a figure.

Your check will usually be less, sometimes significantly less, than the amount it will cost to restore, repair or replace the damage or loss. However, if you have replacement cost coverage, the insurance company will pay what it costs to repair or replace your damaged possessions at today's prices without deducting for depreciation.

While actual cash value language is standard, most insurance companies offer replacement cost coverage as an option.

Renter or owner, depending on where you live, you might find it a really good idea to also have flood insurance because most home/renter policies do not cover floods. In addition, if you live in an earthquake zone, you might want to look at adding "earthquake coverage". People who live in hurricane and tornado prone areas may need special "windstorm coverage":

A special type of property-casualty insurance that protects policyholders from property damage caused by windstorms. Windstorm insurance is usually offered in the form of a rider on a standard casualty insurance policy through the extended coverage endorsement. It is one of the subsets of storm insurance.

Whether or not you may have a need of these forms of special coverage will very much depend on where your property is.

In North Carolina, for example, the Department of Insurance has a "Coastal Property Insurance Pool":

The Coastal Property Insurance Pool is defined by the North Carolina General Statutes as the "Market of Last Resort"; therefore, it is highly recommended that property owners attempt to obtain insurance in the standard market.

Other coastal states may have similar programs. It's worth checking if you have one of those cool beachfront houses. Renters can get windstorm policies, too.

If you are uninsured, you may only get the limited amount of help that the Red Cross and other NGOs and FEMA may be able to offer - which is meant to help for a short time only.

So, buy that insurance!

Warning Order: I'm Giving a Piracy Presentation

 I'll be giving a talk on "Modern Day Piracy on the High Seas" in Cobb County, Georgia, at the Switzer Library, 266 Roswell Street, Marietta, on Saturday November 15th, starting at 2:00 p.m.


If you sit through what I hope will be an interactive discussion, I'm told there are "cookies and punch" being offered as a reward.

I do note that the Georgia - Auburn football game has been postponed set for later that evening so as to not not interfere with this chat.

Y'all are invited.

Sea Pirates: A "Small Tanker" Concern from the International Maritime Bureau

IMB notes concern over small tanker attacks in SE Asia :

While pirate attacks on the world’s seas have fallen for the third consecutive year, small tanker hijacks by armed gangs are escalating in Southeast Asia, reveals the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) International Maritime Bureau (IMB) in its latest piracy report.
***
“It’s encouraging to see the huge decrease in maritime piracy and armed robbery over the last few years, thanks mainly to international navies deterring pirates off East Africa, and improved onboard security,” said IMB Director, Pottengal Mukundan. “However, there has been a worrying new rise in attacks against small coastal tankers in Southeast Asia. We advise small tankers in particular to remain vigilant in these waters and report all attacks and suspicious small craft to the IMB’s Piracy Reporting Centre.”

IMB’s Piracy Reporting Centre says gangs of thieves armed with knives and guns are making Southeast Asian waters increasingly dangerous for small tankers carrying products such as gasoil or marine diesel oil. Boarding the ship at sea, pirates hold the crew hostage for a short time while they unload all or part of the cargo, which they then use, or sell locally. Of the six vessels hijacked worldwide in the third quarter of 2014, five were in Southeast Asia.

It's not just Southeast Asia, as noted further on:

The number of incidents reported in Nigeria has dropped noticeably, down to 13 in the first nine months of 2014, from 29 in the same period last year. Elsewhere in the Gulf of Guinea, Ghana recorded four incidents in 2014 compared with no incidents in 2013. This includes the hijacking of two product tankers – and theft of their cargoes – and a fishing vessel and the taking hostage of 86 crew members.

Why small tankers? Because of their small crews, lack of security, ease of boarding, ease of transfer of product to another vessel, and high value cargo. It also helps if there is little or no sea law enforcement force out there.

Happy Birthday, U.S. Marines!

USMC Birthday Message:


A nice salute from Duffle Blog U.S. Creates World’s Largest Marine Preserve In Pacific.

Happy Birthday, Jar Heads!

Saturday Is Heinlein Quote Day #32

From The Number of the Beast

This universe never did make sense; I suspect it was built on government contract.

On Midrats 9 November 14 Episode 253: "The Fleet we Have, Want, and Need" - with Jerry Hendrix

Please join us at 5pm EST on 9 Nov 14 for for Midrats Episode 253: "The Fleet we Have, Want, and Need - with Jerry Hendrix"

What is the proper fleet structure for the USN as we design our Navy that will serve its nation in mid-Century?

Join us for a broad ranging discussion on this topic and more with returning guest, Henry J. Hendrix, Jr, CAPT USN (Ret.), PhD.

Fresh off his recent retirement from active duty, Jerry is a Senior Fellow and the Director of the Defense Strategies and Assessments Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS).

A Naval Flight Officer by training, his staff assignments include tours with the Chief of Naval Operation’s Executive Panel (N00K), the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy (Force Development) and the OSD Office of Net Assessment.

His final position in uniform was the Director of Naval History.

Hendrix also served as the Navy Fellow to the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University. He has a Bachelor Degree in Political Science from Purdue University, Masters Degrees from the Naval Postgraduate School (National Security Affairs) and Harvard University (History) and received his doctorate from King’s College, London (War Studies).

He has twice been named the Samuel Eliot Morison Scholar by the Navy Historical Center in Washington, DC, and was also the Center’s 2005 Rear Admiral John D. Hays Fellow. He also held the Marine Corps’ General Lemuel C. Shepherd, Jr. Fellowship. He authored the book Theodore Roosevelt’s Naval Diplomacy and received a number of awards, including the United States Naval Institute’s Author of the Year and the Navy League’s Alfred T. Mahan Award for Literary Achievement.

Listen in here (or use that link to pick the show up later) or visit us on iTunes.

Friday Fun Film: Prelude to Veterans Day

On Veterans Day, 11 November, we honor those who serve and have served in the military of the United States.

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your service.

You might recall last year's special pre-Veterans Day celebrations during October 2013:
 

Best Post-Election Commentary

Veritas Liberabit Vos

Victor Davis Hanson, The Democrats’ Waterloo :

Obama and the Democrats chose not to defend the administration’s record of the last six years.
***
Democrats understandably chose to ignore both what they had voted for in the past and what they were likely to support in the future.

Instead, they ran on the same old progressive idea of community organizing to get out the base. Obama was the past master of this strategy: energize American voters by contending that we have been separated by race, class, and gender; claim that conservatives have been waging pitiless war against blacks, Latinos, gays, women, and the poor; and then cobble back together the aroused and aggrieved interests to form a majority.

So why, after prior successes, did Obama’s race/class/gender attack finally sputter out like the French at Waterloo?

Unhappy voters thought the anemic economy, Obamacare, the collapse of U.S. foreign policy, the scandals in government, and the incompetent handling of everything from the Islamic State to Ebola were the only real issues. Democrats’ refusal to acknowledge them did not make these failures go away.

Nor did Americans believe that Republicans had been waging war on minorities, women, or gays — especially given that Republicans have held the House only since 2011 and have been out of power in the Senate and presidency since 2009.

After three elections, voters finally caught on that Obama’s faults were not in the stars, but in himself. They apparently tired of the usual distractions from a dismal presidential record.

Read the whole thing, especially starting with the third paragraph.

UPDATE: Oh, and Rush is right.

Disaster Prep Wednesday: A Preparation Fable For You

The Ant and the Grasshopper:

In a field one summer's day a Grasshopper was hopping about, chirping and singing to its heart's content. An Ant passed by, bearing along with great toil an ear of corn he was taking to the nest.

"Why not come and chat with me," said the Grasshopper, "instead of toiling and moiling in that way?"

"I am helping to lay up food for the winter," said the Ant, "and recommend you to do the same."

"Why bother about winter?" said the Grasshopper; we have got plenty of food at present." But the Ant went on its way and continued its toil.

When the winter came the Grasshopper found itself dying of hunger, while it saw the ants distributing, every day, corn and grain from the stores they had collected in the summer.

Then the Grasshopper knew...

It is best to prepare for the days of necessity.

The cartoon ends better for the grasshopper. But then, it's Disneyfied.

UPDATE: If you want to read an epic rant on "grasshoppers" and "ants," let me recommend portions of John Ringo's The Last Centurion, especially Chapter 7, Case Studies or the Grasshopper and the Ant. Lot of profane soldier talk in it, so if you are easily offended, stick to the fable above.

Wing in Ground: Is WiGgy Coming Back?

Soviet WiG Plane

About 9 years ago, I had a post about Wing in Ground aircraft, Going WiGgy which was a look at the fearsome Soviet Wing in Ground planes of the old days.

WingShip photo

Now it appears a South Korean company WingShip Technology Corp. is looking to revive the concept in a big way. According to The Economist, things are moving right along despite the sad history of previous failures in WiG:

But hope springs eternal, and the Wing Ship Technology Corporation, a South Korean company, is trying to revive the idea. The country’s armed forces have already agreed to buy some and the firm says it hopes to announce its first commercial sales (to an oil-and-gas firm and a Mediterranean ferry company) shortly.

Corporate video:



WingShip suggests a number of uses for their design here, including military:

Similar to development and operation of previous WIG crafts for military purpose by Soviet Union, WSH series is considerably attractive in military market. She could be used for special purpose because it’s hard to detect her during operation.

Hmmm.

Special Pre-Election Day Heinlein Quotes

“If you are part of a society that votes, then do so. There may be no candidates and no measures you want to vote for ... but there are certain to be ones you want to vote against. In case of doubt, vote against. By this rule you will rarely go wrong.”

― Robert A. Heinlein, Time Enough for Love

To vote is to wield authority; it is the supreme authority from which all other authority derives .....

- Robert A. Heinlein, Starship Troopers

Fighting ISIS and al Qaeda: Choosing Poor Allies Is Not Helpful

Warfare is never pretty, but it gets downright ugly when you have poor allies who cannot be relied on to fulfill the roles assigned to them. Case in point is this report from the WAPO, which actually has a misleading headline, U.S.-backed Syria rebels routed by fighters linked to al-Qaeda, because, in addition to being "routed," many of them shifted allegiance:

The Obama administration’s Syria strategy suffered a major setback Sunday after fighters linked to al-Qaeda routed U.S.-backed rebels from their main northern strongholds, capturing significant quantities of weaponry, triggering widespread defections and ending hopes that Washington will readily find Syrian partners in its war against the Islamic State.

Moderate rebels who had been armed and trained by the United States either surrendered or defected to the extremists as the Jabhat al-Nusra group, affiliated with al-Qaeda, swept through the towns and villages the moderates controlled in the northern province of Idlib, in what appeared to be a concerted push to vanquish the moderate Free Syrian Army, according to rebel commanders, activists and analysts.
(emphasis added)

Given the long history of rapidly changing alliances in the region this result probably shouldn't be exactly - you know - shocking. However, it does point out - once again - the problem of first world thinking meeting third world tribal and cultural standards head on.

These "allies" are fighting for what, exactly?

It certainly isn't for the glory of Syria or mom and apple pie.

Motivation being what it is and given that Mao's precept that "Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun," applies to tribal and religious struggles in the Middle East as well as to communist insurgencies, these former and current allies basically are fighting for power and profit, while the other side seeks to replace the status quo ante with themselves, asserting that "God is on our side!" as they gather up power, profit and young maidens to debauch or sell into slavery. Seems to be a pretty good recruiting tool when coupled with the chance to fight the "Great Satan" and its minions.

In the long run, our side offers  . . . what exactly again?

Why would any rational player in this "game" choose to align with the force holding the weak hand and with a reputation for abandoning the field when the going gets tough?

If the U.S. and its allies are serious about doing something about Syria and ISIS, AQ and its ally the "Al Nusrah Front," then they had better gear up for the game and quit pussy-footing around trying to bend other people into doing the hard work.

They also better develop a plan that tells putative allies what the mess will look like (as in what's in it for them) when the fighting is over. Without that clear vision to sell, well, you are pushing vapor and pipe dreams of  "kumbaya" singing around the campfire holding hands and sharing flower petals.

Lesson #1 out of our involvement in the Middle East in the last 30+ years ought to be that you have to earn respect and then you have to work hard to keep it. Playing around at the margins probably isn't the path that leads to that result.

Keep up with lots more in the "long war" by reading The Long War Journal.

Oh, yeah, those guys in the video are not Crusaders. In case you were wondering.

On Midrats 2 Nov14, 5pm EST, Episode 252: "Officers walking the line and knowing their place"

Please join us at 5pm Sunday 2 Nov 14 (don't forget to turn your clock back as we go off daylight saving time) for Midrats Episode 252: "Officers walking the line and knowing their place":

Where do senior uniformed leaders draw the line between acknowledging the primacy of civilian leadership to make policy, and maintaining enough distance from the politics to retain their independence of the politics and the politicians?

Is there a point where someone can pass from being a "good soldier" to simply becoming a useful tool of ambitious politicians.

Our guest this Sunday to discuss this and more will be J.D. Gordon, CDR USN (Ret.) We will be using his latest article, "Obama's top military advisers: 'Useful idiots' or good military officers?" as a starting off point before broadening the discussion.

J. D. Gordon was a career Navy public affairs officer with 20 years of active duty service, and is the former Defense Department spokesman for the Western Hemisphere in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, serving under both Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Secretary Robert Gates from 2005 to 2009.

Gordon also served as the Vice President, Communications and Chief Foreign Policy and National Security Adviser to former Republican Presidential Candidate Herman Cain's 2012 campaign. During the 2010 Congressional campaign cycle, Gordon arranged speaking events for former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

Recently, Gordon has also been a Senior Fellow and Communications Adviser to numerous think tanks and foundations, including Atlas Economic Research Foundation, Center for a Secure Free Society, Americas Forum, Atlantic Bridge, Center for Security Policy, Let Freedom Ring and the Liberty and; Freedom Foundation.

Gordon, a columnist to Fox News and The Washington Times since 2010, has regularly appeared as a national security and foreign policy commentator in television and radio outlets in English and Spanish languages.

Please join us live or pick the show up for later listening by clicking here. Or pick the show up later from our iTunes link here.

Remember, that's 5pm Sunday EST, after you've adjusted your clocks.