Saturday Is Old Radio Day: "The Black Museum" with Orson Welles and a "Can of Weed Killer"

About The Black Museum shows

Opening in 1875, the Crime Museum at Scotland Yard is the oldest museum in the world purely for recording crime. The name "Black Museum" was coined in 1877 by a reporter from "The Observer", a London newspaper, although the museum is still referred to as the Crime Museum. It is this museum that inspired The Black Museum radio series, produced in London by Harry Alan Towers.
***
This murder mystery series was based on true life cases from Scotland Yard's files. Each episode was based on an item or items of evidence in the museum.

Orson Welles hosted and narrated the shows. . .

On Midrats 6 Nov 2016, Episode 567: Goldwater–Nichols; Problems and Solutions with Justin T. Johnson

Please join us at 5pm EST on 6 November 2016 for Midrats Episode 567: Goldwater–Nichols; Problems and Solutions

The systems that trains, mans, and equips our military - and provides guidance and support to their civilian masters is broadly shaped by Goldwater-Nichols Act of 1986. There is much discussion that in the middle of the second decade of the 21st Century, is there a better system to serve our national security requirements than one designed at the height of the 20th Century's Cold War?

Using his article in War on the Rocks, Don't Rush to "Fix" Goldwater-Nichols as a starting point, our guest for the full hour to discuss this and other related issues will be Justin Johnson of The Heritage Foundation.

Johnson spent over a decade working on defense and foreign policy issues on Capitol Hill before coming to the Heritage Foundation’s Center for National Defense were I am now a defense and foreign policy analyst at Allison Center for National Security and Foreign Policy.

Johnson received a master’s degree from the Naval War College with a particular focus on terrorism and the maritime domain. He is also a member of the 2013-2014 Future Leaders Program at the Foreign Policy Initiative, the 2011-12 class of Next Generation National Security Leaders at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) and the 2012 class of the Heritage Foundation’s Marshall Fellows.

Originally from St. Louis, Missouri, Johnson grew up in Iowa before moving to Eastern Europe. After living in Germany, Belarus and the Czech Republic, Johnson attended Covenant College in Lookout Mountain, Georgia where he studied philosophy and art.

Join us live if you can, or if you forgot the time change, you can pick the show up later by clicking here or from our iTunes page or our Stitcher page.

Friday Films: Navy Survival "Castaway" (1944) Parts 1 and 2

Ever dream of getting away from it all?

Piracy Down, Crimes Against Merchant Sailors Still Present

As the ICC's International Maritime Bureau puts it "Threat to seafarers remains despite piracy clampdown" and support their statement with numbers:

IMB's latest global piracy report shows that pirates armed with guns or knives took 110 seafarers hostage in the first nine months of 2016, and kidnapped 49 crew for ransom. Nigeria, a growing hotspot for violent piracy and armed robbery, accounts for 26% of all captures, followed by Indonesia, Malaysia, Guinea and Ivory Coast.
But with just 42 attacks worldwide this quarter, maritime piracy is at its lowest since 1996. IMB's Piracy Reporting Centre (IMB PRC) has recorded 141 incidents so far this year, a 25% drop from the same period in 2015. A total of 111 vessels were boarded, five were hijacked, 10 were fired at, and a further 15 attacks were thwarted.
"We are encouraged by the efforts of national and international authorities - and the shipping industry - to keep piracy down. But clearly the threat to crew being taken hostage remains, and it is therefore necessary for shipmasters and response agencies to remain vigilant," said Pottengal Mukundan, Director of IMB, which has monitored world piracy since 1991.

It's a dangerous world and some places and jobs are more dangerous than others.

U.S. Navy Office of Naval Intelligence Worldwide Threat to Shipping (WTS) Report 27 September - 26 October 2016

U.S. Navy Office of Naval Intelligence Worldwide Threat to Shipping (WTS) Report 27 September - 26 October... by lawofsea on Scribd

On Midrats 30 Oct 16: Episode 356: Fall Free For All Spooktacular!

Please join us at 5pm EDT on 30 Oct 16 for Midrats Episode 356: Fall Free For All Spooktacular!

Midrats is back live! With a week left to go till the election, I am sure you are about done with all the political talk, so join us at 5pm Eastern this Sunday, October 30th as we cover the the globe on the breaking national security and maritime issues that have come up over the last month.

From FORD to KUZNETSOV; from The Baltic to Yemen we'll have it covered.

As always with our Free For Alls; it is open mic an open mind. Call in with your issues and questions, or join us in the chat room.

Join us live if you can, or pick the show up later by clicking here. You can also get the show later by visiting our iTunes page or at Stitcher

Fun with Iran: "US intercepts multiple shipments of Iranian weapons going to Houthis in Yemen"

CNN reports US intercepts multiple shipments of Iranian weapons going to Houthis in Yemen

American warships have intercepted five shipments of weaponry to the Houthis in Yemen from Iran in the past year and a half, according to US Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan, who is in charge of American naval operations in the Middle East.

The first intercepted shipment was in April 2015 and since then, American ships have intercepted an additional four shipments, Donegan said.
The shipments included thousands of AK-47 automatic rifles, as well as anti-tank missiles and sniper rifles...

You know in case you were wondering about claims that Iran was backing the Houthis. Or about a proxy war for control of the entrance to the Red Sea at Bab el Mandeb.

Saturday Is Old Radio Day: The Cavalcade of America "The Master Navigator"

Probably never thought you'd listen to a radio show about navigation at sea, didn't you? Well, here's a the tale of Nathaniel Bowditch, "The Master Navigator" and author of Bowditch's The American Practical Navigator:

The American Practical Navigator, first published in 1802, was billed as the "epitome of navigation" by its original author, Nathaniel Bowditch. The text has evolved with the advances in navigation practices since that first issue and continues to serve as a valuable reference for marine navigation in the modern day.

The publication describes in detail the principles and factors of navigation, including piloting, electronic navigation, celestial navigation, mathematics, safety,

oceanography and meterology. It also contains various tables used in typical navigational calculations and solutions, including the formulas used to derive the tabular data.

I used it as a navigator on a destroyer back in the day.

Friday Fun Films: "Evolution of the Oil Industry" and "Beans, Bullets & Black Oil"

OPEC Fights U.S. Shale Oil, U.S. Shale Oil Hangs in There

Cartels and monopolists tend to react to competition in very predictable ways - one of which is to lower their prices until the competition is driven out of business due to lack of profitability. OPEC nations want higher oil prices because their economies are built on maintaining a certain price level.

Bloomberg has a pretty good analysis of what price levels are needed for each OPEC state to make ends meet here. Saudi Arabia needs a price point of $106, Iran $87, Venezuela $125.

Current market price for a barrel of oil is below $50. Why so low? Part of the reason is the attempt to drive U.S. shale oil producers out of business and eliminate them as competition and allow OPEC to be back in the oil pricing and demand driver seat.

There's an interesting analysis from FGE's  Fereidun Fesharaki and David Isaak about why that may not be working so well from Oil & Gas Journal FGE: US unconventional industry shows resilence as OPEC reacts to shale production and prices

When the "War on Shale" began, it was common to hear that substantial drops in production would occur at $90/bbl, $80/bbl, or $70/bbl. And, it was true that to make the overall economics work, those sorts of prices were needed for many producers in certain plays. But the overall economics include the lease costs, which for some producers represents a very large fraction of the total cost. But lease costs are sunk costs, and once the investment has been made, they do not have much effect on production economics. So there are projects that might require $70/bbl to make money, but the operator can still keep producing at $40-60/bbl.
Some aspects of shale economics were improving at astonishing rates, even with the cushion of high prices. Total well depths typically more than doubled in the last 6 years, as did lateral runs lengths. Despite greater depths and lateral runs, typical drilling times per well were cut in half (to 17 days from 35), and some wells are now drilled in 9-12 days. In addition, multiple wells now are drilled from single production pads, meaning that the drilling equipment can be repositioned and restarted in a matter of hours rather than days.
As is widely known, productivity per well also has skyrocketed. This is the result of many factors, such as fracturing practices geared to specific local geology, improved use of proppants, and the longer total runs per well. But one of the reasons productivity is climbing is simply that the producers have begun to concentrate on the best plays.
In the early days of shale, most of the producing wells were also effectively exploration wells. In addition, many wells in the Great Rush were drilled simply because lease terms required a certain amount of drilling and output to avoid the lease reverting to the owner (leases held by production, or HBP drilling in industry jargon).

But as long as oil prices remained high, there were costs that tended to rise rather than come down. Labor was short, operating costs tended to rise, good drill rigs were at a premium, proppants and chemicals saw major price increases, and common items such as compressors were backordered. In addition, limited (and expensive) transport infrastructure cut netbacks to the wellhead.
***
Costs Have Fallen
Lower prices and increased productivity have to some extent reversed those trends. In the new low-price environment, costs have fallen-some producers report operating costs down by 20% or more. Rig counts are down, and this not only lowers the cost of rig hire, but it also means that only the best rigs are employed. Finally, although cheap transport infrastructure still falls short of demand, improvements in getting liquids to market have been steady.
That does not mean prevailing prices do not hurt. They have definitely put an end to the Great Rush. But the main effect has been to put the US shale business on a sounder footing. In the new environment, the less productive leases and plays are likely to be abandoned (which will look to the market like another major increase in well productivity). Improvements in drilling and production economics improved the bottom line before, but now additional improvements are required rather than optional.
What does this mean for production of tight oil and gas? With all the time-lags involved, it is becoming harder to assess. The large producers have slashed their E&P budgets for 2015 by about a third; and smaller producers have implemented even bigger cuts. Despite this, most of the producers report that their output of oil will be higher for 2015 than for 2014.
Monthly production declines are already occurring-although even the modest crude price revival of the last few months was enough to encourage a few producers to begin deployment of additional rigs for mid-summer. But a confounding factor is that many producers have elected to delay completions on wells that have already been drilled. Completion (casing and installation of production trees and piping) is expensive-and not needed unless the well is going into production. Some statistics suggest that as many as half of the wells drilled in the Bakken are deferring completion. Some companies (notably EOG Resources Inc. and Apache Corp., both of Houston) actually are deferring more wells in 2015 than their total new wells in 2014. This means that in the coming months and years, there may be small surges in production that are seemingly unrelated to drilling.
Crude prices need to be driven well below recent levels to put shale out of business. Conversely, mild increases in price can draw in new production comparatively rapidly. Deferred well completions add to the price responsiveness. Shale production is surprisingly resilient in the range of $50-60/bbl, and prices above $60/bbl may draw in significant new production.

So, OPEC, thanks for forcing the shale oil industry into streamlining and improving.

And good luck on that "control of the market" thing.

The U.S., according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration seems to be sitting pretty on shale:

Does the United States have abundant shale resources?
Yes, the United States has access to significant shale resources. In the Annual Energy Outlook 2014, EIA estimated that the United States has approximately 610 Tcf of technically recoverable shale natural gas resources and 59 billion barrels of technically recoverable tight oil resources. As a result, the United States is ranked second globally after Russia in shale oil resources and is ranked fourth globally after China, Argentina and Algeria in shale natural gas resources.

Joke of the Day: "Iran's navy unveils 'suicide drone'"

Iran has someone with a really droll sense of humor as they announce troll the West with a weapon that is a reversion to World War II - Iran's navy unveils 'suicide drone'

Iran's navy on Wednesday released a photo of what's being called a "suicide drone" that can be loaded with explosive materials and deliberately crashed into targets at sea and on land.

The announcement was carried by Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency. While it said the drone "can carry payloads of explosives for combat missions" and collide with the target and destroy it, (whether) a vessel or an onshore command center" it also noted that the drone's primary purpose is for maritime surveillance.

It "has not been designed to be armed with missiles," Tasnim said.

The small, pilot-less aircraft can nevertheless fly for up to 4 hours and has a range of about 600 miles. It can fly as high as 3,000 feet and as low as 20 inches above the Earth's surface. Its camera can be used at night and in "damp sea conditions."

Oh, my goodness, not those "damp sea conditions." Wait, I thought that pretty much describes what "sea" is all about . . .

Lest you forget kamikaze planes and boats and regular anti-ship cruise missiles and anti-ship guns and stuff like that, you might recall the U.S.Navy's remotely piloted bombers used in WWII:

1944 - Special Air Task Force (STAG-1) commences operations with drones, controlled by TBM Avenger aircraft, against Japanese in Southwestern Pacific.

And, since 1903 or so, the U.S. Navy has been pretty much worried about things going after ships that go faster than 120 knots.

Want to See More Sea? DARPA Has TALONS For That

Detecting things at sea using radar has a limitation - most sensor can't see around curves - and the surface of the roundish Earth curves limiting detection ranges of objects past that curve.

One way around this limitation has been to mount sensors as high as possible on a ship, whether those sensors are lookouts in crow's nests or radar mounted at the top of a mast.

Since sensor altitude makes a difference, it is very interesting to see what DARPA is playing with in ACTUV Unmanned Vessel Helps TALONS Take Flight in Successful Joint Test:

DARPA’s Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) Continuous Trail Unmanned Vessel (ACTUV) program has developed and built a technology demonstration vessel that is currently undergoing open-water testing off the coast of California and recently set sail with its first payload: a prototype of a low-cost, elevated sensor mast developed through the Agency’s Towed Airborne Lift of Naval Systems (TALONS) research effort.

ACTUV seeks to lay the technical foundation for an entirely new class of ocean-going vessel—one able to traverse thousands of kilometers over the open seas for months at a time, without a single crew member aboard. Potential missions include submarine tracking and countermine activities. Towed behind boats or ships, TALONS could persistently carry intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR), and communications payloads of up to 150 pounds between 500 and 1,500 feet in altitude—many times higher than current ships’ masts—and greatly extend the equipment’s range and effectiveness.
***
While aloft, TALONS demonstrated significant improvements to the range of the sensors and radios it carried compared to mounting them directly on a surface vessel. For example, TALONS’ surface-track radar extended its range by 500 percent—six times—compared to its range at sea level. Its electro-optical/infrared scanner doubled its observed discrimination range. The TALONS team plugged in a commercial handheld omnidirectional radio; that radio’s range more than tripled.

Expanding the ranges of detection through use of unmanned vessels is vital to protecting those higher value units that do contain humans.



UPDATE: Yes, adding altitude to ship sensors is not a new idea - see the Coast Guard's sea based  aerosat program from the 1980s:

During the 1980s as a result of the increased illegal traffic of narcotics and migrants in the Caribbean, the Coast Guard established the Mobile Aerostat Program. It consisted of two shore-based units located in Key West and Miami, Florida. The units were comprised of two teams per vessel (total of five) which alternately deployed aboard Sea Based Aerostat (SBA) Platforms. Aerostats were unmanned lighter-than-air aircraft which mounted sophisticated radar and other surveillance equipment. The MAP mission was to provide continuous air and surface surveillance for other law enforcement units working in the same geographic area of responsibility. SBAs normally worked in conjunction with high and medium endurance cutters and patrol boat class vessels. Successful operations were conducted with other U. S. and foreign naval forces. From 1984 to the program's decommissioning on 31 March 1992, the Aerostats provided target information resulting in numerous drug seizures and illegal alien interdictions.

Of course, that was before we had cool, unmanned vessels to tow sensors around.

Early Voted. Came home and washed my hands. Wished I could wash my brain.

So, here's what the blank ballot looked like for the "presidential" choices:

Sometimes there is no "least bad choice."

I wrote in a name in the space provided.

If I wasted my vote on in write-in, at least I kept my faith with my fellow citizens.

Came home and washed my hands to rid myself of the stink of the major party candidates.

But the horror remains.

We cannot do this to ourselves again.

There are good and honorable people out there. We must support them.

Somali Pirates Release Victims After Long Capture

NYTimes reportFreed Sailors Recount Years of Torture at the Hands of Somali Pirates:

. . .during which the crew members were beaten with bamboo poles, ate rats to survive and were held at gunpoint in a sweltering stretch of Somalian desert by a band of pirates who were convinced they were going to make many millions of dollars.

It all ended this weekend. The pirates finally relented, accepting a smaller amount to release the 26 surviving members of the Naham 3 crew after one of the longest pirate hostage ordeals ever endured.
***
Mr. Libres, a Filipino sailor, seemed almost confused about how his captors could be so heartless. “The pirates are worse than animals,” he

said. “You can’t understand these people.”
***
Still, dozens of sailors remained in captivity from earlier attacks. Negotiators had been working for years to free the crew of the Naham 3, an Omani-flagged vessel hijacked while fishing for tuna near the Seychelles.

“The pirates were uneducated, obstructionist, unmotivated and unrealistic,” said Leslie Edwards, the lead negotiator for the sailors’ release. “They picked poor fishermen from poor countries from poor families. They were dreaming about huge amounts of money they were never going to get.”

In the end, negotiators worked with clan elders in Somalia to persuade the pirates to accept a relatively small amount of money to cover the costs of holding the captives for 1,672 days. The negotiators did not disclose the amount, though they said it was “nothing” compared with what the pirates originally demanded. A British law firm helped raise the money, and the rescue mission was coordinated by Oceans Beyond Piracy, a project run by an American nonprofit organization.

The pirates have a bad business model that does not reflect the current realities of their operating area. Essentially, their current targets will be the crews of outlaw fishing boats which intrude on Somali waters. It's a high risk venture with low rewards if only the costs are being covered.

U.S. Navy Office of Naval Intelligence Worldwide Threat to Shipping (WTS) Report 20 September - 19 October 2016

U.S. Navy Office of Naval Intelligence Worldwide Threat to Shipping (WTS) Report 20 September - 19 October... by lawofsea on Scribd

Saturday Is Old Radio Day: "John Steele, Adventurer"

About John Steele, Adventurer:

John Steele was the type of roving adventurer and thrill seeker who held various jobs in exotic locations. Among his career paths were country sheriff, special agent in Turkey and a ship’s captain.

As he says in the opening of the following show,

"At best in a lifetime we experience one exciting moment that makes for a real story, yet each one of us has had one such happening that stands out above all the rest . . ."

Friday Film: Speaking of the Philippines "The Battle of Leyte Gulf"

"U.S. has lost" - Philippines Chooses the Strong Horse says its President

Leadership is an odd thing, since so much of it depends on perception - and the current president of the Philippines has perceived that China is the big dog in his region, as Reuters reports in "Duterte says U.S. has lost, aligns Philippines with China":

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte announced his "separation" from the United States on Thursday, declaring that it had "lost" and he had realigned with China as the two agreed to resolve their South China Sea dispute through talks.

Duterte made his comments in China, where he is visiting with at least 200 business people to pave the way for what he calls a new commercial alliance as relations with longtime ally the United States deteriorate.

His trade secretary, Ramon Lopez, said $13.5 billion in deals would be signed

Duterte's efforts to engage China, months after a tribunal ruling in the Hague over South China Sea disputes in favor of the Philippines, marks a reversal in foreign policy since the 71-year-old former mayor took office on June 30.

"America has lost now," Duterte told Chinese and Philippine business people at a forum in the Great Hall of the People, attended by Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli.

"I've realigned myself in your ideological flow and maybe I will also go to Russia to talk to (President Vladimir) Putin and tell him that there are three of us against the world - China, Philippines and Russia. It's the only way," he added.

Lord Palmerston had it right:

“We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow.”

President Duterte may not be everyone's cup of tea, but he does seem to have a strong view of where the interests of the Republic of the Philippines lie. He's decided that China is the stronger horse, or as that now dead chap Osama bin Laden said:

“When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature, they will like the strong horse”

While thinking about protecting U.S. interests in the Pacific, it might be time to look hard at those islands that are U.S. territory out there in the Pacific, like Wake, Midway, etc, and building up our attack submarine force.

UPDATE: Vietnam announces an "enemy of my enemy is my friend" hedging strategy as set out here:

Vietnam supports US “intervention” in the Asia-Pacific if it helps keep peace and stability, the defence ministry said, in a timely endorsement of a continued U.S. presence amid uncertainty over Washington’s faltering “pivot”.
Vice-defence minister, Senior Lieutenant General Nguyen Chi Vinh, met on Monday with Cara Abercrombie, the US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for South and Southeast Asia, and told her Vietnam backed a positive US role.
The general’s words of support, conveyed by a normally reclusive defence ministry, come when the United States most needs them, with its “rebalance” – aimed at boosting its Asian foothold and tempering China’s rise – now under strain in the run-up to a US presidential election.
Vinh “affirmed that Vietnam will support the US and other partners to intervene in the region as long as it brings peace, stability and prosperity”, he said in a statement.
Vietnam will support the US and other partners to intervene in the region as long as it brings peace, stability and prosperity.
At the dialogue, Abercrombie said the United States would not change its rebalance strategy, the statement added.
***
Washington’s traditional defence alliances in Southeast Asia are currently being tested, with ties with Thailand frosty since a 2014 coup and questions about the future of a tight military relationship with the Philippines under volatile new President Rodrigo Duterte, a staunch US critic.

You might note that Vietnam has couched its "support" with a few "ifs."

Fun with Iran: Iran's Single-Handed Battle with "Somali Pirates" goes on and on

While the rest of the world's merchant fleets have enjoyed a respite from Somali pirate attacks ("Sea piracy drops to 21-year low"), Iran's apparently "pirate magnet" merchant shipping continues to suffer - at least according to the fabulistic Iranian media - with reports like this from Iran's Mehr "News" Agency "Navy’s 44th fleet thwarts pirate attacks in Gulf of Aden":

TEHRAN, Oct. 17 (MNA) – Iran’s 44th naval fleet has foiled pirate attacks on two Iranian tankers during days of its presence in the open waters and the Gulf of Aden.
Early on Monday morning, pirates of Gulf of Aden, who mainly come from Somali coasts, sought to carry out a raid and highjack an Iranian merchant ship though they were forced to flee following a heavy exchange of fire by 44th Fleet of Army’s Navy.

On two more occasions, first with eight pirate speedboats at 46 miles to south of Aden and later with thirteen well-equipped boats at 55 miles to south of Yemen, pirates were about to launch an assault on another Iranian vessel but they were forced to retreat when they came under heavy fire from the 44th fleet of the Iranian navy.

Navy’s 44th Fleet, consisting of Alvand and Bushehr logistical destroyers, had left Bushehr to explore uncharted waters on October 05.

Good golly, there are enough fabrications in those few paragraphs to sink the Iranian "logistical destroyers" without any assaults by hordes of pirate speedboats.

The "uncharted waters" of the northern Indian Ocean? Really? I guess the thousands of ships plying those waters must be lost and lucky to find there way from one port to another. Good thing they all have GPS to keep them informed of their location or they would have to wait for the Iranian's 44th Fleet (a two-ship "fleet?") to chart those water for them.

Why the Iranians bother with these bogus reports is quite the question, but they do provide some comic relief, so they've got that going for them.

By way of example, let's look at the nice maps provided by our friends at International Maritime Bureau's Live Piracy Map:

2016 to date 

2015

Hmm. Thanks to a number of naval forces and the continuing use of armed guards on merchant ships, there seems to be a remarkable lack of pirate action out there in the northern Indian Ocean, doesn't there?

And, as noted here several times, Iran's "fleet" consists of what most folks would call a "frigate" and a as its companion.

All of this must be meant for internal consumption, because no one else could fall for this nonsense.

U.S. Navy Office of Naval Intelligence Worldwide Threat to Shipping (WTS) Report 13 September - 12 October 2016

Special Warning for the Bab-el-Mandeb chokepoint:

NGA Special Warning 134: Red Sea, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and Gulf of Aden Commercial vessels in the region of the Red Sea, Bab el Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Aden should operate under a heightened state of alert as increasing tensions in the region escalate the potential for direct or collateral damage to vessels transiting the region. These threats may come from a variety of different sources such as missiles, projectiles or waterborne improvised explosive devices. Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for an 01 October attack on a UAE vessel. Vessels in the region should report hostile activities immediately and contact coalition naval forces . . .

U.S. Navy Office of Naval Intelligence Worldwide Threat to Shipping (WTS) Report 13 September - 12 October... by lawofsea on Scribd