U.S. Navy Office of Naval Intelligence Worldwide Threat to Shipping (WTS) Report, 11 October - 8 November 2023

U.S. Navy Office of Naval I... by lawofsea

China Games: "Pakistan politicians fear losing strategic islands to China"

From Nikkei Asia, a report of how China seems to be seeking strategic ports in Pakistan and near India and the vital oil lanes from the Strait of Hormuz: Pakistan politicians fear losing strategic islands to China

Pakistan's federal government has triggered a political uproar after taking direct control of two islands previously under the regional government of Sindh province.

President Arif Alvi signed the Pakistan Islands Development Authority (PIDA) ordinance last month to facilitate reclamation and urban planning on Bundal and Bhuddo islands, which are located south of Karachi. Both islands are some eight kilometers across, and the largest along Sindh's coast.

Government officials say PIDA has been created to develop the islands as commercial zones. Imran Ismail, Sindh's governor, has claimed that Bundal on its own can take on Dubai and attract investment of $50 billion -- equal to the amount already tagged for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a key component in President Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

****

The ordinance is helpful to Beijing's expanding economic ambitions in Pakistan. Last month, it nominated Nong Rang as its ambassador to Islamabad. Unusually, he is a political appointee well versed in commerce and trade, and analysts believe this portends increased commercial and BRI activities.

Mohan Malik, a visiting fellow at Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies in Washington, said the sudden way in which the two islands near Karachi have been placed under federal control shows that something is afoot. He told Nikkei that the ordinance's stated goals of developing the islands for trade, investment and international tourism "seem to have been taken straight out of Beijing's BRI playbook."

 

Interesting,

Fun with Iran: Pipeline Planned for Iranian Port Outside Strait of Hormuz

Iran launches key pipeline project to bypass Strait of Hormuz for oil exports :

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani launched an oil pipeline project which will enable the country to export its oil using a route other than the Strait of Hormuz, Tasnim news agency reported.

“What is strategic about this project is that many countries in the region have managed to find a second way so that they can export their oil using other routes whenever the Strait of Hormuz faces danger,” Rouhani said addressing a ceremony to inaugurate the project.

The 1,000-km pipeline will bring oil from Goreh in Bushehr port city in the Gulf to another port city of Jask in the Sea of Oman.

The Kharg Island terminal in the Gulf is currently Iran’s main terminal, accounting for 90 percent of its oil exports. To reach Kharg, tankers must pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

With the launch of the pipeline from Goreh to Jask, the country’s oil exports will no longer be linked to the Hormuz Strait, which will make Jask strategically important as the country’s second-largest crude oil export terminal.

Seems like an interesting plan.

Don't know who Iran thinks might close the Strait of Hormuz, but it's nice of them to be planning to provide additional targets for the same folks who might want to stop Iranian shipments from Kharg Island. A 600 mile long pipeline and a nice new terminal? Tempting.

Jask location

Kharg Island in red circle, Jask with red pin

Kharg Island facilities

As you might guess, this is a partial response to the earlier reported Omani effort to build a large storage and loading facility on the Arabian Sea. And it's a recognition that it's a long transit from Kharg Island to open water.

Strait of Hormuz: U.S. Marines on Merchant Ships Providing Security

Reported as Marines Embark Merchant Vessel to Provide Security in Strait of Hormuz Transit:

STRAIT OF HORMUZ (NNS) -- Marines and Sailors deployed with

U.S. Marine Corps photo by Cpl. Tanner A. Gerst/Released)

Fleet Anti-Terrorism Security Team, Central Command (FASTCENT) Company, assigned to Naval Amphibious Force, Task Force 51/5th Marine Expeditionary Brigade (TF 51/5th MEB), embarked on a Military Sealift Command time chartered vessel in the Arabian Gulf to provide security during a Strait of Hormuz transit Oct. 21.

Task Force 51/5th MEB has a myriad of inherently maneuverable assets that offer commanders the ability to flexibly respond to a wide variety of missions and contingencies, and that are capable of being rapidly deployed. Specifically, FASTCENT Marines work with U.S. partners and allies to protect personnel and property while simultaneously ensuring freedom of navigation in international waterways.

"A strong U.S. presence in the Gulf region is both a deterrent to any potential adversaries who may have an interest in disrupting the maritime domain or using the seas for nefarious purposes, as well as a force to reassure allies, and partners of the United States' commitment to ensuring the free flow of commerce throughout the region," said Brigadier Gen. Matthew Trollinger, Commander of Task Force 51/5th Marine Expeditionary Brigade.

Marines with FASTCENT Company have a history of performing a wide variety of missions and contingencies related to deterring, detecting, mitigating, and defending vital naval and national assets against terrorism since its activation in 1986.

"The U.S. Navy and Marine Corps has and will continue to protect U.S. forces and interests in the region. This includes routine escorting and embarking on U.S. flagged vessels transiting through the region," said Vice Adm. Jim Malloy, Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Central Command/Commander, U.S. 5th Fleet.

TF 51/5th MEB is entrusted with rapidly aggregating crisis response capabilities and positioning Navy and Marine Corps forces throughout the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility to ensure command and control of forces at sea, from the sea, and ashore.

"We are focused on maintaining strong defenses and exposing nefarious actors. We are not seeking conflict, but we will be prepared to defend ourselves and respond to attacks on U.S. forces and our interests," said Malloy.

Not So Subtle -- "Let's Send a Message in the Strait of Hormuz"

Prepared to counter potential small boat swarms when transiting near a minor annoyance:

STRAIT OF HORMUZ (Aug. 12, 2019) An AH-1Z Viper helicopter attached to Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron (VMM) 163 (Reinforced), 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) takes off during a strait transit aboard the amphibious assault ship USS Boxer (LHD 4). The Boxer Amphibious Ready Group and the 11th MEU are deployed to the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations in support of naval operations to ensure maritime stability and security in the Central Region, connecting the Mediterranean and the Pacific through the Western Indian Ocean and three strategic choke points. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Dalton S. Swanbeck/Released)STRAIT OF HORMUZ (Aug. 12, 2019) 

You might note that "manned mobile gun platform" on the elevator behind the helicopters.

Fun With Iran: Iran Threatens Closure of Strait of Hormuz Unless Demands Met (Again)

Reuters report Iran's Rouhani hints at threat to neighbors' exports if oil sales halted

President Hassan Rouhani appeared on Tuesday to threaten to disrupt oil shipments from

neighboring countries if Washington presses ahead with its goal of forcing all countries to stop buying Iranian oil.
***
Iranian officials in the past have threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil shipping route, in retaliation for any hostile U.S. action against Iran.

“The Americans have claimed they want to completely stop Iran’s oil exports. They don’t understand the meaning of this statement, because it has no meaning for Iranian oil not to be exported, while the region’s oil is exported,” the website, president.ir, quoted him as saying.

Let's see now, major oil producers who might benefit if Iran cuts off its nose to spite its face include Russia, Saudi Arabia, Canada, the U.S. - I would add Venezuela, but its oil production capabilities are in shambles. The U.S is now the world's leading producer, thanks to fracking, so Iran's threats are less meaningful than they were once upon a time.

Oh, yes, there is also this U.S. Navy says will protect commerce in face of Iran oil threat:

The U.S. Navy stands ready to ensure free navigation and the flow of commerce, the U.S. military’s Central Command said on Thursday, as Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned they would block oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary.
***
If Iran cannot sell its oil under U.S. pressure, then no other regional country will be allowed to either, said Mohammad Ali Jafari, who commands the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran’s most powerful military force.

“We are hopeful that this plan expressed by our president will be implemented if needed ... We will make the enemy understand that either all can use the Strait of Hormuz or no one,” Jafari was quoted as saying by Tasnim news agency.

The Strait of Hormuz is the most important oil transit channel in the world with about one-fifth of global oil consumption passing through each day.

“The U.S. and its partners provide, and promote security and stability in the region,” Central Command spokesman Navy Captain Bill Urban said in an email to Reuters.

Asked what would be the U.S. Naval Forces’ reaction if Iran blocks the strait, he said: “Together, we stand ready to ensure the freedom of navigation and the free flow of commerce wherever international law allows.”

USN photo- those aren't toys on the racks

The Guards’ naval arm lacks a strong conventional fleet. However, it has many speed boats and portable anti-ship missile launchers, and can lay

,U mines.

A senior U.S. military leader said in 2012 the Guards have the ability to block the strait “for a period of time” but the United States would take action to reopen it in such an event.

Well, that's why we have a Navy. And an Air Force.

USAF photo

I would think clearing the air space above the Arabian Gulf would be priority one, followed by using air power to smite the "many speed boats and portable anti-ship missile launchers" probably while they sortie to lay mines or line up for swarm attacks. Air power including Navy and AF assets, of course, along with allies in the area who would probably not look kindly on Iran attempts to cut off the oil flow through the Strait or movement in the Gulf.

One might ask the question, "How much of a IRGC swarm can an AC-130 chop up if an Ac-130J was called upon to sweep the sea of IRGC swarms?" Unlike a similar question about woodchucks, I think the answer to this one would be "lots and lots."

Iran's leadership is failing the people of Iran more than ever as they try to hang on to their perks and power. Being stupid in this situation would put them squarely on the back of an already very restless tiger.

Fun with Iran or Bold Talk from a Salami: "We will close the Strait of Hormuz to the U.S. if it 'threatens' us"

AP reports on a very conditional threat in Iranian commander threatens to close Strait of Hormuz to US

The deputy commander of Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guard said Iranian forces will

close the strategic Strait of Hormuz to the United States and its allies if they "threaten" the Islamic Republic, Iranian state media reported on Wednesday.

The comments by Gen. Hossein Salami, carried on state television, follow a long history of both rhetoric and confrontation between Iran and the U.S. over the narrow strait, through which nearly a third of all oil traded by sea passes.

The remarks by the acting commander of the Guard also follow those of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who on Monday criticized U.S. activities in the Persian Gulf. It's unclear whether that signals any new Iranian concern over the strait or possible confrontation with the U.S. following its nuclear deal with world powers.

In his remarks, Salami said that "Americans should learn from recent historical truths," likely referring to the January capture of 10 U.S. sailors who entered Iranian waters. The sailors were released less than a day later, though state TV aired footage of the sailors on their knees with their hands on their heads.

"If the Americans and their regional allies want to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and threaten us, we will not allow any entry," Salami said, without elaborating on what he and other leaders would consider a threat.

He added: "Americans cannot make safe any part of the world." (emphasis added)

I dunno there, "Insane" Salami, we're not so threatened by the outside world here in the U.S. that we do all the nasty things you do to your people to keep them in line. I consider that a pretty high level of "safety." In fact, Iran's leadership always reminds me of the Brain:


For those unfamiliar with Hussein "Insane" Salami, he is prone to threatening all sorts of stuff:
Iran vows to hit any country that stages attack:

Iran will target any country where an attack against it is staged, a senior Revolutionary Guard commander warned Sunday, the latest Iranian threat tied to growing tensions over its nuclear program and Western sanctions.

Gen. Hossein Salami, deputy commander of the elite Revolutionary Guard, Iran‘s most powerful military force, did not elaborate. His comments appeared to be a warning to Iran‘s neighbors not to let their territory or airspace be used as a base for an attack.

Iran says it won’t return U.S. drone:

Iran will not return a U.S. surveillance drone captured by its armed forces, a senior commander of the country’s elite Revolutionary Guard said Sunday.

Gen. Hossein Salami, deputy head of the Guard, said in remarks broadcast on state television that the violation of Iran’s airspace by the U.S. drone was a “hostile act” and warned of a “bigger” response. He did not elaborate on what Tehran might do.

Well, now we know, Iran could possibly try to close the Strait of Hormuz. Maybe. Or something.

Ho. Hum.

UPDATE: In retrospect, I should have titled this post "More Baloney from Salami"

Iran Strikes Back II: Lawfare and the Iranian "Ship-napping"

A couple of good legal analyses of the Iranian grab of the chartered vessel Maersk Tigris (as initially discussed at Iran Strikes Back: "Iranian Navy fires at, boards commercial container ship").

Both are worth reading to get a flavor of how Iran is attempting to mask the issue of its illegal "ship-nap" in a flurry of legalistic mumbo jumbo.

First is James Kraska's piece at Defense One, "Iran’s Disingenuous Approach To Maritime Law":

Even assuming that the regime of innocent passage applied to the Maersk Tigris, however, Iran’s seizure was still unlawful. Tehran is trying to replace the package deal of the law of the sea with a cafeteria-style selection of favored provisions and rejection of others that benefit and protect the international community. This conduct is of a familiar style and pattern for the regime in Iran, and an indictment on its ability to implement international law in good faith.

Second is Eugene Kontorovich's discussion in the Washington Post/The Volokh Conspiracy, Iran’s legal claims for seizing the Maersk Tigris:

. . . . Iran’s seizure clearly violates international law, and one might add, a branch of international law that is ordinarily well-respected, and quite fundamental for global commerce. Moreover, no maritime lien gives Iran any authority to detain the crew.

Given the flagrant breach of international law, there seems to be a surprising silence from the “international community” and proponents of global governance. . . .

Well, illegal it may be, but Iran holds the trump card - it has the ship and its crew.

It also has its own courts to rule on its actions in grabbing the ship. And it knows, as I pointed out in my first post on this matter, that that no one, including the U.S.

is ready to go to shooting war over this sort of action.

In its asymmetric battle against the "west", Iran is compelled to lie about almost everything, almost all the time. Clearly, Iran has its internal reasons for some of the embellishments it puts on the matters it is involved in. If they manage to fool a few Westerners along the way - well, so much the better. Grabbing ships at sea - that requires a new level in lying. Sort of a "step up" in bald-faced prevarication. Much like Putin in Russia . . .

But just like the "lawfare" being waged by the Chinese in the South China Sea or, on occasion, by the North Koreans, this new asymmetric approach is like the "big lie" practices of past thugs and dictators - meant to fool most of the people, most of the time, while concealing the mean spirit that animates it. If you like, it's nibbling around the edges of real war.

USN photo by MC2 Oki

In the case of the Strait of Hormuz, it now mandates an active escort system for U.S. flagged ships. And that means more work for an already too small fleet.  Those U.S. Navy patrol ships in the photo above are being used as escorts. They are about 20 years old and will need replacing soon.
 
By its actions, Iran has set up a very dangerous environment in which a shooting war is more likely.

All couched in nice legalistic nonsense.

The question is, of course, who will do anything about this "illegal act?"

Oil Matters: Iran Is Thinking of Oil Terminal Outside the Arabian/Persian Gulf

Most of Iran's ability to get oil and gas products to the world outside the Arabian/Persian Gulf can be blockaded by putting a "stopper" in the entrances to the sea line of communication chokepoint that is the Strait of Hormuz. That "stopper" could be naval forces or mines or air power sufficient to threaten shipping trying to leave the A/P Gulf.

To an extent, the great worry to many of those outside of Iran who rely on shipments of oil and gas from the area has been that Iran might place its own cork in the mouth of the Gulf and cut off vital supplies, creating an international energy shortage and chaos in energy markets.

Other oil and gas producing states in the A/P Gulf have taken steps to reduce the risk of economic harm caused by Iranian action by developing alternative paths (by which I mean pipelines) to carry products away from the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. See the nearby map of such alternatives. Click on it to enlarge it.

Iran's potential to close the Strait of Hormuz is a double-edged sword, however, because a truly effective Iranian cork (perhaps using mines) in the Strait of Hormuz might also hobble the Iranian oil and gas export business which is also dependent on an open Strait. This limitation affects the ability of Iran to apply "energy supply" leverage on the world to get what it wants.

This Iranian dependency on an open Strait also constitutes a powerful strategic lever against the Iranian government when international disputes arise. Due to the alternative export routes developed by its neighbors and that are currently unavailable to Iran, it is possible that through - a blockade or other action closing the Strait to it - Iran could be boxed in the Gulf with oil and gas but no way to get it to market. No sales of such products could wreak havoc on the economy of Iran. A Iranian economy that gets bad enough could lead to internal strife in Iran and an overthrow of the present "republic."

Recognizing this problem, Iran is pondering a way to build itself a way out of this "box." One possibility is to set up an oil and gas port outside of the chokepoint Strait of Hormuz. The Tehran Times reports on just such a plan, in "Iran to invest $2.5b to build oil terminal at Sea of Oman port" :

Iran is planning to invest $2.5 billion to build a new crude oil export terminal at Jask Port on the Sea of Oman, bypassing the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the only way in and out of the Persian Gulf, the managing director of the Iran Oil Terminals Company announced on Saturday.

Most of Iran’s exports are funneled through the big terminal on Kharg Island in the northern Persian Gulf, then shipped southward in supertankers through the Strait of Hormuz, the Mehr News Agency quoted IOTC Managing Director Pirouz Mousavi as saying.

Iran also plans to lay a pipeline running from the Caspian Sea in the north to Jask, Mousavi added.

An older look at Iran's oil and gas infrastructure (2004)

Since a large number of joint oil and gas fields are located in the Persian Gulf, such a terminal will help the country expedite oil storage and export operations, he stated.

The Jask oil terminal will be comprised of storage facilities with a total capacity of 20 million barrels, loading and unloading docks, as well as onshore and offshore facilities, Mousavi said.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said in a meeting with domestic researchers in Tehran on Saturday that the diversification of oil export routes is one of the most strategic policies of his administration.


Mohsen Qamsari, the deputy director for international affairs of the National Iranian Oil Company, recently said that Iran is exporting an average of one million barrels of oil per day based on the November 2013 interim nuclear deal with the 5+1 group (the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany).

Under the deal, the six countries undertook to provide Iran with some sanctions relief in exchange for Iran agreeing to limit certain aspects of its nuclear activities.

The two sides agreed to extend the nuclear talks until November 24, with a view to achieving a permanent accord.

Iran produced 2.762 million barrels of oil per day in July, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in its latest report. (emphasis added)

Bandar-e-Jask Area

So, Iran is sitting on a million+ barrels of oil that it can't legally export under its agreement in the interim nuclear deal.

It needs an alternative path for its oil and gas. It has a small port at Jask on the Gulf of Oman - so . . . it has now floated a plan to enlarge that port and get an alternative out of the Gulf.

The arrow on the nearby map points to Jask.

Jask is also home, since 2008, to an Iranian naval base which it has asserted gives it the ability control the Strait of Hormuz:

"We are creating a new defence front in the region, thinking of a non-regional enemy," Adm Sayyari told state run Iranian radio.

"In this region we are capable of preventing the entry of any kind of enemy into the strategic Persian Gulf if need be," he said.

Is this proposed oil port real? If so, is it a sound and smart strategic plan or a bargaining chip for the nuclear talks? Or both?

Strait of Hormuz Pirates?

The IMB reports an attempted attack at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz here:

Attack Number: 062-12
Date: Sat Feb 25 2012
Type of Vessel : Container
Attack Posn Map :

IMB map of attack. I added the arrow to point out Somalia.

Location detail: Northern approaches to Straits of Hormuz.
Type of Attack : Attempted
Narrations: 25.02.2012: 0315 UTC: Posn: 26:08.9N - 056:42.1E, Northern approaches to Stratis of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman (Off Somalia) {Wow! Way off Somalia!}.
A container ship underway noticed three skiffs at a distance of 2nm approaching her at high speed. Master raised alarm, activated SSAS, altered course, non-essential crew mustered in the citadel and the onboard armed guards took their position. The armed guards fired warning shots when the skiffs closed to a distance of 1nm resulting in the pirates aborting the attack and moving away.

Strait of Hormuz: Triple Carriers (Briefly?)

Let's see now, one carrier leaves the Arabian/Persian Gulf and hangs about the Northern Indian Ocean/Arabian Sea because its replacement is inbound, the replacement has nearly arrived, and a third is lurking about the area.

USS John C. Stennis

Why, that's three of the big beasts in the region. Hmmm. What message does this send to the self-proclaimed "gatekeepers" of the Strait of Hormuz? Well, none if you believe this sort of headline, "U.S. military moves carriers, denies Iran link":

The U.S. military said on Wednesday that a new aircraft carrier strike group had arrived in the Arabian Sea and that another was on its way to the region, but denied any link to recent tensions with Iran and portrayed the movements as routine.

USS Carl Vinson

The shift in the powerful U.S. naval assets comes at a moment of heightened tensions with Iran, which has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz - the world's most important oil shipping lane - if U.S. and EU sanctions over its nuclear program cut off its oil exports.

The U.S. military has said it will halt any blockade of the strategic strait and the top U.S. naval officer acknowledged on Tuesday that preparing for a potential conflict there was something that "keeps me awake at night."

Still, the Pentagon denied any direct link between recent tensions and the movement of aircraft carriers.

USS Abraham Lincoln

"I don't want to leave anybody with the impression that we're somehow (speeding) two carriers over there because we're concerned about what happened, you know, today in Iran. It's just not the case," said Captain John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman.

Military officials said the USS Carl Vinson arrived in the Arabian Sea on Monday to replace the outgoing USS John C. Stennis carrier strike group, which Iran last week warned not to return to the Gulf after departing in late December.

The Stennis was due to return to its home port in San Diego but the Pentagon did not say when that would happen.

Another carrier strike group, led by the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, concluded a port visit to Thailand on Tuesday and was now in the Indian Ocean. It is on track to join the Vinson in the Central Command area of operations, which begins in the neighboring Arabian Sea.

Why would anyone think there was a message involved?

By the way, carriers do not travel alone. They have escort services.

Iranian threats

U.S. Energy Information Administration Map

In for a penny, in for a pound, I suppose, as another irrational Iranian spokesman threatens (but only once)the U.S. Navy, as set out here:

Iran's army chief on Tuesday warned an American aircraft carrier not to return to the Persian Gulf in Tehran's latest tough rhetoric over the strategic waterway, part of a feud with the United States over new sanctions that has sparked a jump in oil prices.

And, well, this time they mean it so much they won't repeat their warning:

“We usually don’t repeat our warning, and we warn only once,” Ataollah Salehi was cited as saying by the state-run Fars news agency. “We recommend and emphasize to the American carrier not to return to the Persian Gulf.”

Could Iran close the Strait of Hormuz? Maybe, but, in my view, (1) not for very long and (2) at a huge cost to - Iran. Energy markets would spike, but only until it becomes clear that there are alternative routes for oil to flow (see the map above). See here:

On average, 14 crude oil tankers per day passed through the Strait in 2011, with a corresponding amount of empty tankers entering to pick up new cargos. More than 85 percent of these crude oil exports went to Asian markets, with Japan, India, South Korea, and China representing the largest destinations.
At its narrowest point, the Strait is 21 miles wide, but the width of the shipping lane in either direction is only two miles, separated by a two-mile buffer zone. The Strait is deep and wide enough to handle the world's largest crude oil tankers, with about two-thirds of oil shipments carried by tankers in excess of 150,000 deadweight tons.
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz would require the use of longer alternate routes at increased transportation costs. Alternate routes include the 745 mile long Petroline, also known as the East-West Pipeline, across Saudi Arabia from Abqaiq to the Red Sea. The East-West Pipeline has a nameplate capacity of about 5 million bbl/d. The Abqaiq-Yanbu natural gas liquids pipeline, which runs parallel to the Petroline to the Red Sea, has a 290,000-bbl/d capacity. Additional oil could also be pumped north via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline to the port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean Sea, but volumes have been limited by the closure of the Strategic pipeline linking north and south Iraq.
The United Arab Emirates is also completing the 1.5 million bbl/d Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline pipeline that will cross the emirate of Abu Dhabi and end at the port of Fujairah just south of the Strait. Other alternate routes could include the deactivated 1.65-million bbl/d Iraqi Pipeline across Saudi Arabia (IPSA), and the deactivated 0.5 million-bbl/d Tapline to Lebanon.

China might be the most affected country if the Strait of Hormuz is closed.

An interesting piece from Arab News by Abdulateef Al-Mulhim, "Strait of Hormuz and Iranian threats":

Every five years, the Iranians would threaten the whole world that they would close the Strait of Hormuz. They never did. They simply can’t do it and they are not capable of doing it even if they wanted to do it.

That the Iranians feel the need to rattle swords right now may be due to the shambles of their already weak economy and the internal political fallout from the drive to develop nuclear weapons. In the meantime, they gain some benefit from increasing oil prices caused by their threats.

Hormuz Strait Word Games Ratcheting Up

A few days ago, we had an Iranian political bozo stirring up international concern with a threat to close down the Strait of Hormuz, followed, as noted in How many Iranian threats to "close the Strait of Hormuz" does it take to make oil prices jump?, by a near immediate denial of the intent of the Iranians to close the strait, now followed by Iranian war games in the Arabian Gulf showing their forces of various types, as they do nearly every year.

In case you are wondering, yes, the U.S. and its allies monitor these games.

In addition, the U.S. and its allies also occasionally rise to the bait tossed out by Iran's clowns and threaten that, surprise, surprise, any effort by Iran to really close the Strait of Hormuz would be "a very bad thing" and that could result in serious letters of warning, meetings of the UN Security Council and perhaps, maybe, at some point in all of Iran's forces being sent to the bottom of the ocean and/or painted pink and being made to live in a country like Iran. This week's counterpoint to Iran's point comes to us via the 5th Fleet via CNN, who are trying very hard to drum this up into a story:U.S. Navy won't tolerate 'disruption' through Strait of Hormuz from CNN.com

The U.S. Navy said Iran's threat to block the strategically and economically important Strait of Hormuz is unacceptable.

"The free flow of goods and services through the Strait of Hormuz is vital to regional and global prosperity," Navy 5th Fleet in Bahrain spokeswoman Cmdr. Amy Derrick Frost told reporters on Wednesday.

"Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations; any disruption will not be tolerated."

It's all part of the on-going war with Iran, being fought in many ways, but always asymmetrically by Iran, because, while its leadership may be a bunch of wild and crazy guys, they are not completely nuts.

USS John C.Stennis - Not exactly liking finding Waldo

UPDATE: To add to the fun, the Iranians report, apparently with great joy, they were able to "spot" an aircraft carrier the size of a city block transiting the Strait of Hormuz with its escorts. The real news story would have been if they were unable to see something akin to the Empire State Building floating by their Navy. Report here:

The US Navy’s Fifth Fleet, which is based in Bahrain across from Iran and guards the passageway, confirmed to ABC News that two of its ships did pass through the Strait of Hormuz on Dec.27 en route to the Arabian Sea where they are assisting operations in Afghanistan.

USS Mobile Bay

“The aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74) and guided-missile cruiser USS Mobile Bay (CG 53), conducted a planned, routine transit through the Strait of Hormuz, Dec. 27

UPDATE2: Okay, Iran got what it wanted Iranian threats push crude above $101/bbl in New York market. Now, if only we had a crude oil pipeline from Canada, this sort of thing wouldn't be so - - dramatically unnecessary.

How many Iranian threats to "close the Strait of Hormuz" does it take to make oil prices jump??

One, apparently, even if made by some obscure clown who was almost immediately slapped down for being a dolt, as reported in Strait of Hormuz Not Closed, Iran Foreign Ministry Says:

The Strait of Hormuz remains open to shipping, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said, after oil prices surged amid speculation that vessels might be blocked from using the strategic waterway.

The spokesman, Ramin Mehmanparast, said reports about the strait’s closure were untrue. Oil prices spiked by as much as 3.6 percent today in New York and London.

“These claims are sometimes made, but they are by people who have no role, no official title or authority,” Mehmanparast said by telephone from Tehran.

"No role, no official title or authority" - sounds like just the guy to quote to make oil prices jump a bit.

About 1/6 of the daily global consumption of oil travels through the Strait, but that's just because it's easier that way.

Closing the Strait would not mean the end of civilization as we know it and the rest of the world would adjust in a fairly short time.

More to follow on this when I get time.

Somali Pirates: Terrorist Connections Alleged

This time the Somali pirate-terrorist connection link allegations come from India. As set out in Somali pirate-LeT tie-up is BIG threat for India:

The coming together of Lashkar-e-Tayiba and southern Somalia-based Al-Shahbab poses new maritime protection issues for India.
***
Intelligence sources told rediff.com that the Al-Shahbab group has links with the Al Qaeda and carries out the latter's operations. The cadres of this group specialise more on sea and have been using the pirates for their operations.
***
The detail that has been most revealing during the interrogation of these pirates is that the Al-Shahbab group, which has been closely associated with the Al Qaeda, is now cozying up to the Lashkar-e-Tayiba, which is probably India's biggest headache.

Intelligence reports suggest that the Lashkar-Al-Shahbab association will look to carry out more attacks on Indian waters and one could witness plenty of hostage crisis' in the near future, if not acted upon.

For those who don't remember, Lashkar-e-Tayiba (LeT) ("Soldiers of the Pure") is the group from Pakistan was the group that landed people ashore in Mumbai and killed 174 people.

As alleged in an American Shipper quoted yesterday:

“The Somali pirates are exploring further collaboration with the remnants of the Tamil Tigers out of Sri Lanka who in the past have sold weapons to them via Eritrea, and now our greatest fear is a coordinated assault between the Somali pirates and the remnants of the Tamil Sea Tigers against commercial navigation in the waters south of India and Sri Lanka,” Frodl said.

Before thinking that these connections may be about spreading terrorism on the seas, it is a good idea to read a post from Martin Murphy's excellent blog Murphy on Piracy, Pirate money flows to al-Shabaab in which, as of July, Mr. Murphy was of the opinion that the al-Shabaab link to pirates was about the money, not the spread of whatever al-Shabaab is spreading. In the context of some link up with the Tamil Tigers, this money connection makes sense, as the Tigers are not radical Islamists.

The concern is that these connections - and others- will lead to a spread of piracy into more sea lines of communication and chokepoints.  Right now, the entrance/exit to the Red Sea, the  Bab el-Mandab and the entrance/exit to the Persian Gulf are most impacted by piracy (that's where the ships are!), a spread to the east brings into play the entrance/exit to the Strait of Malacca.

U.S. Government Confirms that Al Qaeda Linked Group Attacked Tanker in July

 A group linked to al Qaeda has been determined to have been responsible for that tanker attack that took place near the Strait of Hormuz back in July, Reuters reports, based on a U.S. Maritme Administration advisory issued November 19. Earlier posts on this attack here, here, here, here and here and here.

The key portion of the MARAD advisory:

ADVISORY # 2010 -10

DATE ISSUED NOV 19 2010

TO: MARINERS

SUBJECT: VESSELS TRANSITING IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, SOUTHERN ARABIAN GULF, AND WESTERN GULF OF OMAN.

1. THIS MARAD ADVISORY PROVIDES GUIDANCE TO VESSELS TRANSITING SUBJECT WATERS.
2. GOVERNMENT AND INDUSTRY SOURCES CAN CONFIRM THAT THE CLAIM BY THE Abdullah Azzam Brigades (AAB) THAT THE GROUP HAD ATTACKED THE TANKER M.STAR IS VALID. THE GROUP REMAINS ACTIVE AND CAN CONDUCT FURTHER ATTACKS ON VESSELS IN AREAS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, SOUTHERN ARABIAN GULF, AND WESTERN GULF OF OMAN.
3. RECOMMEND ALL SHIPS TRANSITING THE SUBJECT WATERS EXERCISE INCREASED VIGILANCE AND CAUTION, PARTICULARY DURING NIGHT TRANSITS WITH INCREASED MONITORING OF SMALL VESSEL/BOAT ACTIVITY.

More information on AAB at this site

Strait of Hormuz Tanker Blast: "Al-Qaeda claims MOL tanker attack"

As noted earlier, a tanker got whacked with something in the Strait of Hormuz. Now, the wizards of terror assert they were behind it, as reported in Al-Qaeda claims MOL tanker attack:

A TERROR group affiliated to al-Qaeda claimed responsibility for a the explosion that hit a Japanese oil tanker off the coast of Oman a week ago.

Abdullah Azzam Brigades is reported to have posted a statement and a photograph on a website used by militants.

“Last Wednesday, after midnight, the martyrdom-seeking hero Ayyub al Taishan blew himself up in the Japanese tanker M.Star in the Strait of Hormuz between the UAE and Oman,” Reuters reported the statement as saying.

The same terror group is thought to be behind attacks at Sharm al-Sheikh, Egypt in 2005 and the launching of two rockets against a US warship near Aqaba, Jordan the same year, the news agency reported.

UPDATE: I still like the meteor theory - and it's happened before.

UPDATE: Why do I doubt the AQ story? Well, for one thing, the hull of the tanker is deformed inward, not out as it would be if Ayyub al Taishan had decided to detonate himself as AQ describes, unless, you know, he pushed the self-destruct button after jumping over the side of the ship . . .

UPDATE (6 Aug 10): BBC reports traces of homemade explosives found on hull - indications of a suicide boat, if true:

"An examination carried out by specialised teams had confirmed that the tanker had been the subject of a terrorist attack," the news agency said, quoting an unidentified coastguard source.

Map of Strait of Hormuz showing location of M Star at time of attack

"UAE explosives experts who collected and examined samples found a dent on the starboard side above the water line and remains of home-made explosives on the hull," it said.

"Probably the tanker had encountered a terrorist attack from a boat loaded with explosives," the source was quoted as saying.

Hmmm. This ratchets up the threat levels.

Update on Damaged Tanker in Strait of Hormuz

Initial report here. Good comments - probably not an earthquake...

NY Times: Questions Swirl About Damaged Japanese Tanker

With the tanker docked in the United Arab Emirates, the owner, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, and port officials puzzled over precisely what had shattered windows on the vessel, knocked off a lifeboat and punched a dent into its hull. The damage was apparently inflicted early Wednesday morning in the Strait of Hormuz, a passageway for shipping much of the world’s oil from the Middle East.

Mitsui officials said that crew members on the ship, the M. Star, had seen a flash and heard an explosion. They also dismissed earlier speculation by officials in Iran and Oman that the damage had been caused by a “freak wave.”

Me, I'm liking the meteor theory proposed by MDB in the comments to my original post.

Possible Attack on Oil Tanker Near Strait of Hormuz

Sketchy early reporting - press release from Mitsui:

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd.(MOL, President : Koichi Muto) today reported that at about 5:30 a.m. JST (00:30 local time) on Wednesday, July 28, west of the Strait of Hormuz at 26°27' N 56°14' E (Oman territorial waters), the VLCC M. STAR owned by MOL, suffered hull damage caused by an explosion which seemed to be an attack from external sources.

The degree and details of hull damage are currently under investigation but no serious injury was reported, although one of the crew was slightly injured, and no oil leaked from the hull.
Further, M. STAR continues her voyage, making for the UAE port of Fujairah, where the damage and its causes will be thoroughly investigated.

M. STAR took on crude oil Tuesday, July 27, at the UAE Port of Das Island, after which it departed for Chiba Port in Japan.

Details of M/V M. STAR are as follows:
Gross tonnage 160,292 tons
LOA : 333.00 m
FLAG : Marshal Islands
Built in : 2008
Crew : 15 Indian / 16 Philippine crew
Cargo : Crude oil 270,204 MT

More:

There was an explosion on the starboard side of the ship, which damaged some hatches and one of the lifeboats, said Corey Barker, a spokesman for the U.S. Fifth Fleet, speaking by phone from the fleet’s base in Manama, Bahrain. “The cause and extent of the damage is unknown and will be investigated,” he said.

Info on the Strait of Hormuz here:

Located between Oman and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint due to its daily oil flow of 16.5-17 million barrels (first half 2008E), which is roughly 40 percent of all seaborne traded oil (or 20 percent of oil traded worldwide). Oil flows averaged over 16.5 million barrels per day in 2006, dropped in 2007 to a little over 16 million barrels per day after OPEC cut production, but rose again in 2008 with rising Persian Gulf supplies.

At its narrowest point the Strait is 21 miles wide, and the shipping lanes consist of two-mile wide channels for inbound and outbound tanker traffic, as well as a two-mile wide buffer zone. The majority of oil exported through the Strait of Hormuz travels to Asia, the United States and Western Europe. Currently, three-quarters of all Japan’s oil needs pass through this Strait. On average, 15 crude oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily in 2007, along with tankers carrying other petroleum products and liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Click on maps to enlarge.

UPDATE: In a weird way, Iran rules out terrrorism:

The Managing Director of Iranian Navigation and Ports Organization on Wednesday rules out the possibility of terrorist attack on a Japanese tanker in Persian Gulf, the semi-official Mehr news agency reported.
"Probably the earthquake has caused such an incident," Ataollah Sadr was quoted as saying.
Talking to Mehr about the blast in Japanese oil tanker, Sadr rejected the possibility of any terrorist attack on the tanker, saying "due to the presence of some inflammable steams and gases on the oil tankers, the possibility of blast cannot be ruled out."
"Based on the dialogues and messages heard from Maritime Rescue Coordination Center (MRCC), there has been news about the quake occurrence," Sadr said, referring to the Japanese oil tanker M. Star blasted near the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, leaving one person slightly injured.

Maybe something got lost in translation.

Iran: Iranian Navy goes "international"

Iran has announced its "international navy" here:

Iran has deployed naval ships to the high seas as part of a full-fledged campaign initiated by the highest level of government.

Iranian Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari on Friday indicated that Tehran had overcome the self-imposed barrier of warship deployment in its own territorial waters to establish a powerful naval presence in international waters.

"We have a right to have a naval presence in international waters. Our initiative will work to protect the national interests of the Islamic Republic and will hoist the Iranian flag with pride," explained the navy commander.

Ordered by Leader of the Islamic Revolution and Iran's Commander-in-Chief Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, the newly-launched initiative will ensure that Iranian warships remain stationed in a large area of the Indian Ocean.

Iran in late 2008 opened a naval base in the eastern part of the strategic Hormuz waterway. Military officials then described the base as a protective barrier against enemy infiltration at the main entrance to Iranian waters.

Dubbed as a "defense front", the Jask base was said to be part of plans to make the area "impenetrable" for a non-regional enemy.

Rear Adm. Sayyari said Friday that the Jask naval base plays a major role in the new push into high seas.

"With this presence, we seek to convey the message of peace and friendship of the Iranian nation to the entire world, to help instruction and to pass on our experiences to our young generation," he continued.

According to the official, Iran is working on further strengthening its presence in international waters by improving its naval infrastructure and adding new destroyers to its fleet.

An Iranian warship has already ended a one-month mission in the Indian Ocean as part of the initiative.

On the map above, the arrow points to the Jask area, and the circles indicate other Iranian naval base locations. Google Earth image arrows point to locations of potential interest, as discussed below.

Iran announced the opening of its Jask base in October:

Describing the port of Jask as the main entrance to Iranian waters, Brig. Gen. Moussavi said the new naval base would act as a protective barrier against enemy infiltration.

The Iranian commander added that the country's Armed Forces have set up an 'impenetrable naval barrier' in the eastern parts of the Strait of Hormuz and the Sea of Oman.

Moussavi also stressed the need for the expansion of Iran's military bases, arguing that, "In the past, our military had to brace itself for countering regional enemies. This is while today we are faced with extra-regional threats."

An assessment of Jask's role here:

Jason Alderwick, a naval expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said Jask would offer some important advantages.

"It is in a better position strategically than Bandar Abbas," Alderwick said. "It has access to the Arabian sea, so there is deep water access straight away. It has a commanding position vis-à-vis access to the straights, being forward, to the east for them. The real question is what forces are going to be based there? At this stage it's unclear what the Iranians are going to station there, for example, if they want to re-site their submarines there. That would be significant."

Lee Willett, the head of maritime studies at the Royal United Services Institute, said the mere announcement of a new base could be an end in itself. "The cynic would say that any time Iranians say something about the Gulf the oil prices go up, and they are oil exporters, so they are going to make some money," Willett said.

Upper photo is from the Jask base opening ceremony with "frigate" P224 from here. P224 is a Sina-class missile boat, a reverse engineered French design equipped with Chinese missile (C-801) and radar:

The Sina "frigate" at 350 tons is not a frigate in the commonly used meaning of that word. The "Sina-1" is in service; it is a near duplication of the old La Combattante II's Iran operates; but from the outset with Chinese C-802 missiles, Chinese diesels, and less elaborate EW systems.

Google Earth images of Jask reveal - well- not much. First a view from 50,000 feet, arrows point to places of interest. Image with "A" shows a breakwater with small craft moored along it and at anchor. Image "B" shows airfield with one runway and arrow points to helicopter pad. Image "C" is of some interest as it appears to be a newer breakwater protected port. Image "D" is a facility on a river with lots of small craft about.

Below are some images of Iranian naval vessels including a C-802 launch.