Somali Pirates: Predictions

Correspondent Bryan sends on some ONI preditions:

For Week of 03-10 September 2009
As the summer monsoon season comes to an end, weather conditions continue to improve and are somewhat conducive to small boat operations in the Indian Ocean off the east coast of Somalia and in the eastern Gulf of Aden. Mariners are warned to remain vigilant in their counter-piracy measures as an increase in aggressive small boat activity is expected in the coming weeks. There is still an increased probability of pirate/small boat operations in the central and western Gulf of Aden as weather continues to be conducive to small boat operations. Somali pirates currently hold fewer vessels for ransom than they have shown recent capacity to hold. ONI assesses there is a decreased risk for pirate attacks in the Indian Ocean, but the Gulf of Aden remains a prime operating area for Somali pirates.

(Graphic courtesy of the Naval Oceanographic Office Warfighting Support Center)

In the graphic above, green represents a reduced risk for small boat activity while red signifies areas with a high likelihood of small boat activity. The waters marked in yellow through red may represent an increased risk to vessels operating in the area and mariners are encouraged to maintain a strict watch at all times when transiting these high-risk waters. (ONI Comment/Naval Oceanographic Office)

You can also check the wind charts on the right side for a quick look at the operating conditions off Somalia on a frequent basis.