The "How to Lie with Statistics"
moment of the day - after a day spent listening to the media hype over an 11% increase in new home sales - I checked on line to see if any real economist had taken on that magical 11% number being touted as a "sign" of economic turnaround. And I found it here
“An 11% month-over-month increase looks good, but it’s an 11% increase over a very small number,” said Paul Ashworth, Senior US Economist at Capital Economics in Toronto. “It’s the beginning of a new phase, but I’m not sure it’s an exciting new phase.”
Ashworth said sales might have bottomed, but the recovery will be slow.
More from the "dismal science" here
, including this:
The news sounds better than it looks … despite the jump in sales in June, new home sales remain at very low levels, and the not seasonally adjusted data show a total of 36,000 homes sold nationwide in June, the lowest sales total for June since 1982
I don't think I'll be cracking open the champagne just quite yet.
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